Prior to the GFC, Australia was experiencing its most rapid population growth since 1972. This presentation suggests that the GFC will lead to a reduction in population growth in Australia due to a fall in both fertility and international migration. However, it also argues that regardless of global and Australian economic trends there are fundamental demographic factors which necessitate the maintenance of significant population growth into the future. Some of the implications of these trends for business are explored.
4.18.24 Movement Legacies, Reflection, and Review.pptx
1 F Graeme Hugo
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5. “ Over the next couple of decades nothing will impact OECD economies more profoundly than demographic trends and, chief among them, ageing” Jean-Philippe Cotis Chief Economist, OECD March 2005
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10. Higher Degree Qualification by Australia- and Overseas-Born, 1981-2006 Source: 1981 to 2001 Census One Percent files, ABS 2006 Census
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12. Australia: Migration Program Outcomes by Stream, 1989-90 to 2008-09 Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects , various issues
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15. Projections of the Population of Australia Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008
18. Australia: Total Population Growth Showing the Natural Increase and Net Migration Components, 1901-2008 Source: ABS 1986 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics , various issues
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20. Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50, 1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2007 Source: ABS Year Males Females 1901-1910 21.2 23.7 1970-1972 23.0 28.3 2007 31.4 35.2
21. Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with Disabilities Source: ABS 2005
29. Permanent Additions by Eligibility Category Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends ; DIAC 2008
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31. Australia: Permanent Arrivals and Departures, 1959-60 to 2007-08 Source: DIMIA Australian Immigration: Consolidated Statistics and DIAC Immigration Update , various issues
32. Australia: 457s Present, Asia-born and Other, 1998 to 2008 Source: Khoo et al 2009 and DIAC Immigration Update, various issues
33. Overseas Students in Australian Universities, 1983-2007 Source: DEST, Students: Selected Higher Education Statistics, various issues
41. Labour Force Age Groups and Dependency Rates Source: World Bank, 2006
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43. Changing Population Distribution Shifts in the Australian Proportion Centroid, 1911-2006 Source: Australian Censuses, ABS 2003, 2004 and 2007
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45. Australia: Distribution of Population Between States and Territories, Actual 1881-2006 and Projected 2051 Source: Rowland 1982, 25; ABS 2005 and 2007
46. Australia: Changing Distribution of the Population Between Urban and Rural Sectors, 1921 to 2006 Source: Australian Censuses, 1921-2006
47. Australia: Population Change in Country Towns, 2001-2006 Source: Australian Censuses of 2001 and 2006
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51. At times of economic downturn there is a tendency for countries to adopt protectionist policies both with respect to trade and migration. While the response is understandable, the global experience has not been that making substantial reductions in migration has not had the desired consequences for improving the economic prospects for local workers.
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53. Need to Recognise Long Term Structural Causes of Migration – Increasing global differentials in economy and demography and the forces of globalisation
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55. Average Household Net Worth by Age of the Household reference Person, 1994-2007, Australia Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Newsletters - Age Matters - Issue Number 1, December 2002 and ABS 2007, p.37
56. Australia: Changes in Participation Rates of the Older Population in the Workforce, 1970-2009 Source: ABS Labour Force Surveys Percent Participation May 1970 June 1999 May 2009 Age Group Males Females Males Females Males Females 55-59 91.5 28.7 72.9 44.1 77.7 63.2 60-64 79.2 14.9 46.9 17.6 58.7 42.7 65+ 23.2 3.6 9.7 3.2 14.7 5.6