1) Human influence on climate change is clear, with 95% certainty that human activity has been the dominant cause of warming since 1950. 2) The climate is unequivocally warming, with the last three decades the warmest in recorded history and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. 3) Limiting future climate change will require substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through strategies like improving energy efficiency, transitioning to renewable energy, and deploying carbon capture and storage.

1. Chairman, Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change
FICCI-IIFA Global Business Forum 2014
Tampa, Florida
R. K. Pachauri
24 April 2014

2. “Problems cannot be solved at
the same level of awareness
that created them.”
- Albert Einstein

3. 3
Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Human influence of the climate system is clear
• 95% certainty that human influence has been the dominant
cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century
• Since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are
unprecedented over decades to millennia.
• Limiting climate change will require sustained and
substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions
Source : IPCC AR5

4. 4
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer
at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
Source : IPCC AR5

5. 5
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Source : IPCC AR5
• The oceans have warmed and risen
• The amounts of snow and ice have diminished
• Sea level has risen
• The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased

6. 6
The oceans have warmed and risen
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
• Ocean warming dominates the
increase in energy stored in the
climate system: more than 90%
of energy accumulated between
1971 and 2010.
• The rate of sea level rise since
the mid-19th century has been
larger than the mean rate during
the previous two millennia.
• From 1901-2010, global mean
sea level rose by 19 cm.
Source : IPCC AR5

7. 7
The concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
• The atmospheric concentrations
of CO2, methane, and nitrous
oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the past
800,000 years.
• The ocean has absorbed ~30% of
the emitted anthropogenic
carbon dioxide, causing ocean
acidification.
• CO2 emissions from fossil fuels
combustion and industrial
processes contributed about 78%
of the total GHG emissions
increase from 1970 to 2010
Source : IPCC AR5

8. 8
Total anthropogenic GHG emissions were the highest in human history from
2000 to 2010
Trends in GHGs and their drivers
Source : IPCC AR5
Greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors • Accounting for indirect
emissions raises the
contributions of the industry
sector to 31%
• Globally, economic and
population growth continue
to be the most important
drivers of increases in CO2
emissions from fossil fuel
combustions
• These are expected to
continue to drive emissions
growth without additional
efforts to reduce GHG
emissions.

9. 9
Industry
Trends in GHGs and their drivers
Source : IPCC AR5
• In 2010, the industry sector accounted for around
28% of final energy use.
• Emissions are projected to increase by 50–150% by
2050 in baseline scenarios, unless energy efficiency
improvements are accelerated significantly.
• Emissions from industry are currently greater than
emissions from either the buildings or transport
end‐use sectors.

10. 10
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the
climate system
Future changes in the climate system
Source : IPCC AR5
• Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century.
• It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to
shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises.
• Global glacier volume will further decrease.
• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st
century

11. Extreme events during and by the end of the 21st Century
Source : IPCC SREX
• It is very likely that the length, frequency, and/or
intensity of warm spells or heat waves will increase over
most land areas
• Under some scenarios, a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely
to become a 1-in-2 year event in most regions
• It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the
proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase
over many areas of the globe

12. 12
Future risks of climate change
Projected risks for natural systems over the century
Source : IPCC AR5
Fresh water resources
• Significant reduction of
renewable surface
water and groundwater
resources in most dry
subtropical regions
• Climate change is
projected to pose risks
to raw and drinking
water quality
Terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems
• Increased extinction
risk under all warming
scenarios (RCPs)
• Increased tree
mortality, forest dieback
with risks for carbon
storage, biodiversity,
wood production and
economic activity
• Submergence and
coastal flooding/erosion
due to sea-level rise
Marine systems
• Redistribution and
reduction of global
marine-species and
biodiversity with
challenges for fisheries
• Expansion of “dead
zones” with constraints
for fish habitat
• Polar ecosystems and
coral reefs at
substantial risk due to
ocean acidification
(RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5)

13. 13
Future risks of climate change
Projected risks for human systems over the century
Source : IPCC AR5
Food security and
production systems
• All aspects of food
security are potentially
affected (access,
utilization and price
stability)
• Negative impacts for
wheat, rice and maize
production in some
regions for local
temperature increases
of 2C
Livelihoods and poverty
• Slowing down of
economic growth
• Poverty reduction
made more difficult
• New poverty traps
created especially in
urban areas and
hotspots of hunger
Human health
• Increases in ill-health
in many regions
especially in developing
countries
• Under- nutrition from
reduced food
production in poor
regions
• Increased risks from
food and water borne
diseases

14. 14
Adaptation and Mitigation
“Climate-resilient
pathways combine
adaptation and mitigation
to reduce climate change
and its impacts. Since
mitigation reduces the rate
and magnitude of
warming, it also increases
the time available for
adaptation to a particular
level of climate change,
potentially by several
decades.”
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Source : IPCC AR5

15. 15
Stringent mitigation scenarios
Characteristics of scenarios reaching levels of about 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 (likely
chance to keep temperature change below 2C relative to preindustrial levels):
• Lower global GHGs in 2050 than in 2010 (40% to 70% lower
globally)
• Emissions levels near zero GtCO2eq or below in 2100
• More rapid improvements in energy efficiency
• A tripling to nearly a quadrupling of the share of zero- and low-
carbon energy supply from renewables by 2050
• Nuclear energy, biomass and fossil energy with CCS, and BECCS
by the year 2050
Source : IPCC AR5

16. 16
CDR technologies
Source : IPCC AR5
Many scenarios
reaching 450, 500 and
550 ppm CO2eq by 2100
Require availability and
widespread
deployment of BECCS
and afforestation post
2050
• But the availability and scale of these and other CDR
technologies are uncertain and associated with
challenges and risks.

17. 17
Mitigation options for industry
Reduction of the energy intensity of the industry sector
Source : IPCC AR5
Reduction of the energy intensity of the industry sector could
be reduced through:
• Wide‐scale upgrading, replacement and deployment of best
available technologies, particularly in countries where these
are not in use and in non‐energy intensive industries
• Innovation
• Information programmes for promoting energy efficiency
• Economic instruments
• Regulatory approaches and voluntary actions

18. 18
Mitigation options for industry
Reductions in GHG emissions below baseline levels in the industry sector
Source : IPCC AR5
• Improvements in GHG emissions efficiency and in the
efficiency of material use
• Recycling and re-use of materials and products
• Service demand
• Important options in waste management and reduction
Many emissions-reducing options are:
• Cost-effective
• Profitable
• Associated with co-benefits (environmental compliance,
health benefits)

19. 19
Mitigation options for industry
Collaborative approaches across companies and sectors to reduce energy and material
use
Source : IPCC AR5
Improved process performance and cost-effective plant-
efficiency in large energy intensive industries and SMEs can be
achieved through:
• Application of cross-cutting technologies (e.g. efficient
motors)
• Application of cross-cutting measures (e.g. reducing air or
steam leaks)
• Cooperation across companies and sectors: sharing of
infrastructure, information, and waste heat utilization.

20. 20
Industry
Figure SPM.8. | Final energy demand reduction relative to baseline (left) and low-carbon
energy carrier shares in final energy (right) in the industry sector by 2030 and 2050

21. 21
Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth
Delaying additional mitigation further increases mitigation costs in the
medium to long term
2030 TimeCurrent
GDP
GDP without
mitigation
GDP with stringent
mitigation (reaching ≈
450 ppm CO2eq in
2100)
Loss in global
consumption
in 2030: 1.7%
(median)
Source : IPCC AR5
Loss in
global
consumption
in 2050:
3.4%
(median)
Loss in global
consumption
in 2100: 4.8%
(median)
2050 2100

22. 22
Co-benefits and adverse side effects
There is an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase
co-benefits and reduce adverse side-effects.
The intersections of mitigation and adaptation with other
societal goals, if well managed, can strengthen the basis
for undertaking climate action:
• Improved energy efficiency and security
• Cleaner energy sources
• Air quality and human health
• Reduced energy and water consumption in urban areas
• Sustainable agriculture and forestry
• Protection of ecosystems for carbon storage
Source : IPCC AR5

23. “A technological society has two choices.
First it can wait until catastrophic failures
expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and
self-deceptions…
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks
and balances to correct for systemic
distortion prior to catastrophic failures.”
- Mahatma Gandhi
“Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the
wrong direction”
- Mahatma Gandhi