BMI View: No change of direction for the French power industry. It remains committed to nuclear technology, embracing the latest generation reactors and expanding its generating base in order to remain one of the world’s biggest net exports of electricity.

1. France Power Report Q4 2011
Published:November 2011
No.Of Pages:56
Price:US $ 530
BMI View: No change of direction for the French power industry. It remains committed to
nuclear technology, embracing the latest generation reactors and expanding its generating
base in order to remain one of the world’s biggest net exports of electricity. There is a near-
term upsurge in gas use, at the expense of coal and oil, while non-hydro renewables will
play a larger role as solar and wind programmes are rolled out.
During the period 2011-2015, French overall power generation is expected to increase by an
annual average of 1.67%, reaching 581TWh. Driving this growth is an annual 5.35% gain in
gas-fired generation and a 6.49% rise in renewables-based electricity supply. Coal-fired
generation looks set to fall steadily during the forecast period, reflecting moves towards a
greener and cleaner supply slate. With a likely reduction in oil-fired power, natural gas will
be the thermal source of choice for France, particularly in combined cycle projects.
Following an increase in 2011 with real GDP of an estimated 1.8%, BMI forecasts average
annual growth of 1.9% between 2011 and 2020. The population is expected to rise from the
current level of 63.1mn to 65.9mn during the period 2011-2020, and net power
consumption looks set to increase from 458TWh to 480TWh by 2015, rising further to
509TWh by 2020. During the period 2011-2015, the average annual growth rate for
electricity demand is forecast at 1.19%, but accelerating somewhat later in the decade to
an average 1.21% in 2016-2020.
Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which exceeds that of the
underlying demand trend, the French power supply surplus is likely to increase as new
largely nuclear capacity kicks in. A gradual decline in the percentage of transmission and
distribution losses from around 6.1% will help strengthen the France Power Market. The
theoretical net export capability by 2015 is put at 67TWh, which should remain around this
level through to 2020.
France is in a strong position to be the supplier of choice for Europe’s power-short nations.
Increased interconnection with its neighbours means that the massive nuclear generation
base can be exploited as a means of supplying not just the UK, but also the likes of Spain. If
Germany struggles to meet demand once its nuclear portfolio has been downsized, it could
do worse than buy surplus French supply and strengthen further the French industry’s
commitment to nuclear and renewables expansion.
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2. Table Of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
France Power SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview . 7
Regional Industry Overview .. 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 16
France Snapshot (Macro) ... 16
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 16
Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 16
France Forecast Scenario ... 17
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity... 17
Table: France Total Generation Data 17
Table: France Total Generation Data 20
Table: France Electricity Generating Capacity Data . 23
Table: France Electricity Generating Capacity Data . 24
Electricity Consumption.. 29
Table: France Total Consumption Data . 29
Table: France Total Consumption Data . 29
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports ... 30
Table: France Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data 30
Table: France Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data 30
Table: France Trade Data .. 30
Table: France Trade Data .. 30
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 32
Regulation and Competition . 32
Pricing .. 32
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of January 2011 .. 32
Key Projects Database 34
Table: Major Infrastructure Projects -- Energy & Utilities .. 34
Business Environment ... 36
Regional Risk/Reward Ratings .. 36
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 37
Power Risk/Reward Ratings 41
France Power Rating 41
Rewards 41
Risks . 41
Competitive Landscape .. 42
Electricité de France (EdF) 43
Electrabel-Suez . 43
Endesa France/SNET 44
Areva 44
Company Monitor .. 45
Electricité de France (EdF) 45
Market Position 46
Strategy . 46
Latest Developments . 47
Glossary of Terms . 49
Table: Glossary of Terms 49
Methodology And Sources 50
Industry Forecasts 50
Power Industry – Data Methodology .. 51

3. Generation and Consumption Data 51
Electricity Generation Capacity Data . 52
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 55
Sources . 56
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