Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...
How to predict what individuals will buy next
1. Erasmus Centre for
Neuroeconomics
How to predict what individuals
will buy next
A short history of neuromarketing
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
2. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Ask them!
– Focus groups, polls, surveys, …
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
3. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Lab experiments, field experiments
– Observe them in situation and find out general
rules of behavior!
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
4. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Econometrics / time series analysis
=> Check what they did in the past and infer!
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
5. How to predict what individuals will
buy next
• Modeling
=> Make some basic hypothesis about how
individuals behave in general, and deduct from
there
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
6. Problems with individuals
• They are so specific
• They get influenced
• They are not logic
• They don’t understand who they are
• They are expensive
• They don’t scale up
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
7. Two new directions
Ask the brain! Ask the crowd!
(the neuro turn) (the digital turn)
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
8. Ask the crowds!
• “A crowd is anything that crashes Excel”
• Twitter, FB, Google, …
– Any data source which gives info on behavior at a
large scale.
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
9. Crowds are…
• “sincere” (are they?)
• representative (are they?)
• relatively inexpensive (really?)
• Scale up well (sure?)
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
10. Ask the brain!
• The brain doesn’t lie (or does it?)
• The brain is universal (is it?)
• The brain is measurable (easily?)
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
11. Ask the brain – how easy can it be?
• Major scientific paradigm shift
- Creates resistances, controversy, debates
Is it ok to drop “the individual” as the focus of analysis?
• Mix of competencies: neuro and social!
- not easy to create research groups that can be
good at both
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
12. Looking at the brain
where are we now in 2013?
• 1960s: the brain is a taboo in psychology
• 1970s: gets better, but not many ways to probe it
• 1980s: PET and fMRI!
• 1990s: Decade of the Brain
• 2000s: First results
• 2010s: Commercial applications take off
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management
13. A closer view on 2002-2012
a timeline of neuromarketing
=> With an answer to the question: can
neuromarketing help predict sales better?
http://www.clementlevallois.net/sandbox/timeline/index.html
Rotterdam School of
28 Jan 2013 / Neuromarketing www.clementlevallois.net
Management