2. 2Leuphana Startwoche Aging Presentation- Long Version.pptx
2
John Luijs
Boston Consulting Group
Expert on changing demographics
and global aging
Demographic Change
2013-10-07 Assignment B Megatrends
4. Global aging: our three key messages
1
"...no single factor will have as pervasive an
effect as the aging of our population."
Ben Bernanke
Global aging
is a megatrend
amongst megatrends
3 Companies can successfully adapt
• And build a competitive advantage
2 Companies will be impacted
• On two sides:
input and output
Labor
Capital
Growth
Needs
6. Canada
ItalyUSUK
Japan
Germany
France
NetherlandsNetherlands
Canada
ItalyUSUK
Japan
Germany
France
Aging is driven by increase in life expectancy and decrease
in fertility rate
0
Life expectancy at birth (year)
8642
Fertility rate
0
20
40
60
80
100
19001925195019752010Life expectancy × 2
Fertility rate ÷ 2
Replacement rate
Size reflects
population
~100M
Canada
Italy
US
UK
Japan
Germany
France
Netherlands
Note: graphical representation courtesy of Gapminder (in presentations by Hans Rosling)
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, Gapminder
Germany
Japan
Italy
Canada
US
UK
France
Netherlands
7. Fertility rate and life expectancy of RDEs are quickly
converging to "developed levels"
Note: graphical representation courtesy of Gapminder
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects
Russia
India
China
Brazil
US
UK
JapanGermany
Life expectancy at birth (year)
Fertility rate
86420
Replacement rate
0
20
40
60
80
100
Russia
India
China
Brazil
US
UK
JapanGermany
Life expectancy × 2
in 60 years
Fertility rate ÷ 3
in 60 years
195019752010
Germany
Japan
US
UK
China
India
Brazil
Russia
Size reflects
population
~100M
US
UK
Russia
Japan
India
Germany
China
Brazil
8. Aging is changing demographic pyramid of last 2,000 years
FemaleMale
65 yrs
15 yrs
62%
2%
36%
Roman Empire
Dependency ratio
28:1
Source: Bruce W. Frier - Roman Life Expectancy: Ulpian's Evidence; BCG analysis
Clear pyramid
shape
6
8
10
4
2
0
140013001200110010009008007006005004003002001001 AD
World population
(B)
210020502000195019001800170016001500
0.2
4 2 0 2 4
Population per five-year age group (M)
9. Aging is changing demographic pyramid of last 2,000 years
Source: B. W. Frier, US Census, BCG analyses
Population per 5 year age group (M)
424 2 0 66
femalemale
65 yr
15 yr
62%
4%
34%
1900 (U.S.)
Dependency ratio
15:1
clear pyramid
shape
210020502000195019001800170016001500140013001200110010009008007006005004003002001001 AD
2
6
4
World population
(Bln)
8
10
0
1.7
10. Aging is changing demographic pyramid of last 2,000 years
femalemale
200100100200
World population per 5 year age group (M)
0
65 yr
15 yr
61%
5%
34%
1950 World
Dependency ratio
12:1
clear pyramid
shape
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, BCG analyses
6005004003002001001 AD
World population
(Bln)
8
6
4
2
10
0
21002050200019501900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700
2.5
"The beauty of [the social security
system] is that it is actuarially unsound.
Everyone who reaches retirement age is
given benefit privileges that far exceed
anything he has paid in – "
- Paul Samuelson, 1967
11. Aging is changing demographic pyramid of last 2,000 years
femalemale
World population per 5 year age group (M)
200200 0 400400
65 yr
15 yr
63%
7%
30%
2000 World
Dependency ratio
9:1
pyramid shape
starts to change
World population
(Bln)
8
6
4
2
10
0
210020502000195019001800170016001500140013001200110010009008007006005004003002001001 AD
6.1
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, BCG analyses
"[The social security system] is the
Biggest Ponzi Scheme on Earth."
- Milton Friedman, 1999
12. 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900
0
2100205020001950
6
4
2
World population
(B)
10
8
1000 1100 1200 13009008007006005004003002001001 AD
Population per five-year age group (M)
6424 2 0
2050 Japan
51%
36%
13%
FemaleMale Kite-
shape
Dependency ratio
1.4:1
10.1
World population per five-year age group (M)
300200100300 200 100 0
2050 worldwide
65 yrs
FemaleMale
15 yrs
16%
House-
shape
Dependency ratio
4:1
20%
63%
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects; BCG analysis
Aging is changing demographic pyramid of last 2,000 years
13. Growth
• GDP growth and
demand per country
and segment
Needs
• Change in consumer
age mix
• Needs of the elderly
Today's goal: discuss impact of aging on four key dimensions
Customer demand
What are actions companies can take...
• ...to deal with scarcity of labor and an aging workforce?
• ...to prepare for a scenario of prolonged low interest rates?
• ...to profit from growth across countries and sectors?
• ...to develop a marketing and sales strategy for the 55+ segment?
Scarce resources
Labor
• Capacity risk
• Productivity risk
Capital
• Availability of
capital
• Price of capital
16. Aging has an almost 'mechanical' impact on growth
Substantial differences
Split in workforce & GDP/
workforce needed
0
1
2
3
4
5
US Europe (G4)1Canada Japan
Annual GDP growth 1990-2008 (%)
1
2
3
0
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Annual growth of productivity (GDP/workforce capita) (%)
Annual growth of workforce (%)
US
Canada
1990 – 2008
Japan
EU - G4
1. Germany, UK, France and Italy; 2. Hereafter we refer to GDP per 15-64 capita as "productivity", although the common definition of productivity is GDP per hour
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, World Bank, BCG analyses
size reflects
2008 GDP
~4 tln 2000 US$
17. Aging has an almost 'mechanical' impact on growth
-0.3% / -0.8% of GDP growth... ... due to aging
Canada
US
0
1
2
3
4
5
Aging impact on
annual GDP growth (%)
JapanEurope (G4)CanadaUS
-0.8
-0.3
-0.7
-0.5
1
2
3
Annual growth of productivity (GDP/workforce capita) (%)
1990 – 2008
2010 – 2050
EU - G4
Japan
0
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Note: Decrease in workforce already includes an expected increase in retirement age of 2 to 4 years depending on country
Note: Growth decline due to workforce effect in 2010-50 assumes constant historical productivity
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, World Bank, BCG analyses
size reflects
2008 GDP
~4 tln 2000 US$
Effect of lower workforce
growth on GDP growth
Annual growth of workforce (%)
18. Aging has an almost 'mechanical' impact on growth
China grew much faster than other
large RDEs in '90-'08 ... ... thanks to huge gains in productivity
0
2
4
6
8
10
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
China
AfricaCanada
US
Japan
Annual growth of productivity (GDP/workforce capita) (%)
Europe - G4
Russia
India
Brazil
0
5
10
15
IndiaChina BrazilAfrica
Annual GDP growth 1990-2008 (%)
Russia
G7
BRIC
2% GDP growth
6% GDP growth
4% GDP growth
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, World Bank, BCG analyses
size reflects
2008 GDP
~4 tln 2000 US$
Annual growth of workforce (%)
19. Aging has an almost 'mechanical' impact on growth
Aging significantly reduces GDP growth
of RDEs between 2010 to 2050...
... independently from changes in
productivity
0
2
4
6
8
10
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Annual growth of productivity (GDP/workforce capita) (%)
Russia
India
China
Brazil
Canada
US
Japan
EU - G4
Russia
India
China
Brazil Africa
Africa
0
5
10
15
Aging impact on
annual GDP growth (%)
RussiaBrazilAfricaIndiaChina
2010-2050
1990-2008
2% GDP growth
6% GDP growth
4% GDP growth
-1.6
-1.3
-1.7
-0.8
?
?
?
?
?
-0.6
Note: decrease in workforce already includes an expected increase in retirement age of 2 to 4 years depending on country
Note: growth decline due to workforce effect in 2010-50 assumes constant historical productivity
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, World Bank, BCG analyses
size reflects
2008 GDP
~4 tln 2000 US$
Annual growth of workforce (%)
Effect of lower workforce
growth on GDP growth
20. We need to pull all levers to maintain GDP growth
Especially productivity growth is powerful
Growth levers and feasibility
Increase fertility rate
• Few have succeeded: policies are
costly, with limited effects
Increase immigration
• Necessary change in public opinion
Increase retirement age
• Increases above current plans
possible, provided 'healthy life
expectancy' keeps pace
Increase GDP/ workforce capita:
• Increase in workforce participation
and/or working hours can give a
one-time boost
• Increase hourly productivity by
investing in R&D, education,
market efficiency, etc.
Example (Netherlands):
keep NL real GDP growth until 2050 at
2.3% as in 1990-2010
Increase fertility rate from current 1.8 to 3.2 by
2020 and onwards
• But impact only 'starts' in 2030
Additional 2.8 Mn workers by 2050
• 70,000 net working immigrants per year
• But they bring dependents, and will also age...
Retirement age of 82 by 2050
• Against a life expectancy (at birth) of 85 in
2050
Increase working hours by 28%
• participation from 80% to 103%
• working hours from 1,380 to 1,770 p.a.
Increase GDP/workforce capita yearly growth to
2.5% until 2050
• Historically only 1.9% in NL in 1990-2010 and
in USA in 1850-2010
Note: estimates already assume an increase in retirement age of 2 years by 2050; estimates assume that new workers have the same productivity of existing ones
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, OECD, BCG analyses
Total
GDP
growth
Productivity
growth
(GDP per
15-64 capita)
Workforce
growth
(population
aged 15-64)
x
22. Growth of labor force declining in developed countries
In the G7, US and Canada workforce growth
will decline significantly...
Population aged 15-64 (Indexed 1950 = 100)
400
300
200
100
0
205020302010199019701950
France
US
UK
Canadag = 0.2%
g = 0.4%
Population aged 15-64 (Indexed 1950 = 100)
400
300
200
100
0
205020302010199019701950
NL
Italy
Japan
Germany
... whereas Japan, Italy and Germany will see
their workforce declining
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects
2010 marked a
turning point for The
Netherlands as growth
turned negative
23. Massive changes in the age build-up of the workforce can
lead to three important issues that need to be addressed
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects
Three key actions for companies
Retain knowledge: strategic workforce planning
• To prevent shortage of key skills and knowledge
loss
Retain capacity: seek employees in inventive
ways: -increase participation of older employees
and women
• Since entrants to the labor market will become
increasingly scarce
Capacity
1
2
Enable older employees to stay as productive
as possible
• More important as the number of older
employees increases
Productivity
3
Age
20 23 2926 32 3835 41 44 47 50 53 56 59 62
100
50
0
200
150
250
FTE
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
The future: many retirees, competition for
starters, and an aging workforce
Distribution of FTEs across age classes within a company, based
on BCG case experience
24. Company example: Canada Post pro-actively addresses
future capacity gap
Source: The Conference Board Report "Implementing Strategic Workforce Planning" (The Conference Board is a business membership and research association working in the public interest);
Canada Post website
Workforce of Canada Post has an average age of 48, far
above Canadian average
• 50 % of employees retire within 10 years
• Five further job changes per departure
Affecting all day-to-day activities, thus high costs
Introduction of Strategic Workforce Planning (SWP) to
manage staff
• Analyze historical data to forecast future retirements
• Define vulnerable "key positions" to identify critical risks
• Link SWP to strategic needs and talent management
Company ready to absorb high workforce turnover rate
• Active action to minimize adverse effect of retirement by
– training younger employees
– replacing key employees early
• Capitalize tenure-based productivity
• Support strategic decisions with labor-force forecast
25. A higher proportion of older workers might lead to lower
productivity
Older workers might lead to lower
productivity in both manufacturing... ... and services
1. Assuming line productivity before re-staffing was at par with lines staffed by younger workers Source: HBR "How BMW Is Defusing the Demographic Time Bomb" Mar 2010; BCG experience
120
100
80
0
Productivity at BMW plant1, young production line vs. old production line
93% -7%
Production line staffed with
workers 8 yrs older than average
Production lines with
average aged workers
100%
1.5
1.4
0.0
1.47
40-4435-39
1.46
30-3425-29
1.48
Bank branch advisor productivity (sales index) with age
1.42
-5%
50-56
1.49
1.37
1.48
20-24 45-49
Productivity may decrease with age due to, e.g.
• Lower ability to perform physically intense jobs
• Loss of motivation
• Increase in health related absenteeism
• Lower ability to adapt to new ways of working
26. Company example: BMW successfully overhauled one of its
production lines to accommodate older workers
Worried about lower productivity due to aging
Experiment: staffed one production line with a mix of
workers with an average age of 47
• The expected average age of its workers in 2017
As expected, productivity initially decreased
• By 7%
However, when workers were invited to suggest
improvements, many of their suggestions could be
quickly implemented, e.g.
• New equipments like special ergonomic chairs,
magnifying lenses, wooden flooring
• Job rotation across workstations to minimize fatigue
• Stretching exercises before work
Results were impressive despite a limited investment:
• Productivity at par with other lines
• Absenteeism dropped (7% => 2%), below plant average
• Line achieved a zero defects rate
Source: Harvard Business Review
28. As GDP growth declines in developed countries, their
demand for capital investments will decrease
... resulting in an expected decline in demand
for capital due to a drop in growth rates
-0.9
-0.9
-1.4
-1.6
-2
-1
0
1
Decline in investment demand '10-'20 as % of GDP
JapanEU-G4CanadaUS
1. Due to data unavailability, data for Russia is taken in time interval '95-'08. 2. Investments net of replacement investments (proxied by the consumption of fixed capital)
Source: UN 2010 Population Prospects, World Bank, BCG analyses
GDP growth and investment demand are
strongly correlated...
0
5
10
15
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Real GDP growth '90-'08 (%)
Net investments2 (% of GDP)
China
India
Russia1
Brazil US
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
France
Canada
29. Impact on capital supply will be driven by 'who pays for
our retirement'
Pension
system
Private
saving
We ourselves
The future benefits of the
'PAYG' systems will be
reduced
• Keeping contribution rates
for the next generation at
more acceptable levels
3
Our generation raises its level
of private savings, in
anticipation of smaller 'PAYG'
benefits
and/or
Accepts lower income levels
and/or
Will work longer
Our children
The existing 'Pay As You
Go' (PAYG) pension and
healthcare systems stay
intact
• The future generation pays
contributions to pay our
retirement benefits (as we
did for our parents)
1
Our generation keeps private
saving at its current level
• Assuming benefits from the
PAYG system will remain
intact when we will retire
• The future workers will
simply pay more for us
Our grandchildren
The 'PAYG' benefits will stay
intact, but will be funded by
government borrowing
• To be repaid by the
generation of our grand
children
2
Our generation keeps private
saving at its current level
• Assuming benefits from the
PAYG system will remain
intact when we will retire
30. Putting the burden on the next generation will not work
Contributions per worker
would need to go up to very high levels...
...resulting in an unsustainable decrease in
disposable income for future generations
If future generations have to pay the increase in
contribution rate from their salaries as current
systems impose, disposable income will drop
significantly
• To offset the increase in pension PAYG costs, the
retirement age has to be raised by an additional five
years on top of already assumed increases in
retirement age (2-3 yrs)
It is unlikely the future generation will accept this and
keeps on paying for full benefits
1. Pension costs taken from OECD.StatExtracts; 2. Healthcare cost increases include non-age related factors such as adoption of new technologies as stated in the CBO Budget Outlook 2010
3. Assuming an increase in retirement age as described in the GDP chapter; contributions include employer's part of social expenditures;
4. Wages assumed to account for 51.6% of National Income as published by CBPP
Source: OECD, World Bank, S&P, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, US Congressional Budget Office June 2010, European Economy "The 2009 Ageing Report", BCG analyses
Our children1
0
20
40
60
80
Contribution rate3 (% of wages4 )
Japan
57
32
Italy
72
43
Germany
66
39
France
59
39
UK
45
28
Canada
45
25
US
43
22
'50'08 '50'08 '50'08 '50'08 '50'08 '50'08 '50'08
Healthcare costs2
Pension costs1
31. Taking the burden through higher debt is clearly unfeasible
Net government debt would have to rise to
unsustainable levels
Rating agencies and international policy
makers are already urging countries to reform
"There is little doubt that debt is unsustainable under
current policies in the euro area as well as in the US."
- IMF
"The financial crisis is also causing public debt to
soar in many countries, making it more difficult for
governments to finance public pension deficits."
- OECD, Private pension outlook
"If no further policy changes will be made with
regards to age related costs, 60% of sovereigns2 will
have their debt rated as speculative grade by 2050."
- Standard and Poor's
1. Assuming increase in public pension and healthcare cost is paid from new government debt; assuming an increase in retirement age as described in GDP chapter
2. Approximately 60% of a group of 49 sovereigns mentioned in S&P report "Global Aging, An Irreversible Truth"
Source: OECD, World Bank, S&P, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, US Congressional Budget Office June 2010, European Economy "The 2009 Ageing Report", IMF, BCG analyses
Our grandchildren2
0
200
400
600
800
Government debt (% of GDP)
226
571
118
597
75
435
84
308
77
352
82
376
93
704
Japan at start
workforce
decline (1990)
JapanItalyGermanyFranceUKCanadaUS
2050 net debt12010 net debtGross
32. Which leaves the third scenario...
Pay as you go How our generation can handle this
The future benefits of the
'pay as you go' pension
systems will be reduced
• Keeping contribution
rates for the next
generation constant
A Save more to maintain a level standard of living
• Probably the most common reaction in the
middle class: Need to save extra, can afford to
save extra
Work longer
• Only an option for those who are physically fit
to extend their working life
Accept a drop in standard of living
• Probably the more common outcome for the
lowest income classes, who have high
disability rates and insufficient income to save
B
C
and/or
and/or
Many countries have started or are considering new
mandatory saving schemes
What we expect
Many will just 'wait and
see' (relying in the end on
lever and )
Some will start saving in
time (using lever )
As the more wealthy
people will start saving,
we expect half the gap to
be covered through
savings
B C
A
We ourselves3
33. Credit crisis or Aging Crisis?
Within developed markets, aging leads to a
decrease in capital demand ...
Aging leads to a decrease in GDP growth in
developed markets as:
• Fewer workers are added to the workforce
• Government spending shifts to pensions and
healthcare
Lower GDP growth leads to lower demand for
capital at a given interest rate
... and potentially also an increase
in capital supply
Aging may lead to an increase in savings, as
people realize that governments will not be
able to fully cover future liabilities
• In many countries incentivized by the
government (fiscally and/or mandatory)
Less social security coverage may lead to
higher savings (at a given interest rate)
Low real interest rates
Capital starts flowing to the "wrong" parties (US mortgage owners, Greece, ...)
Creating either bubbles or perverse free-riding incentives, which may lead to write-downs
At the same time, high government debt may increase likelihood of inflation
Source: BCG
35. 55+ segment expected to account for more than half of total
consumer spending growth
1. Assumed that half of consumer spending of age group 45-65 comes from consumer spending of age group 55-65
Note: spending power evolution forecasted based on historic correlation with GDP, not corrected with potential higher relative savings
Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey Commissioned by AARP, 2008; Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008; Japan Statistics Bureau & Statistics Center, Statistisches Bundesamt, Centraal Bureau
voor Statistiek
USThe Netherlands Germany
2.0
2.0
4.0
0
5
10
15
Consumer spending ($T)
2030
10.1
6.1
Growth
2008-30
4.0
2.0
2008
6.1
4.1
0.6
0.3
0.90.1
0
1
2
3
Consumer spending ($T)
2030
1.6
0.7
Growth
2008-30
0.4
2008
1.2
0.7
86%
61%
50%
<55
55+
Consumer spending ($B)1
800
600
400
200
0
2030
452
241
211
Growth
2010-30
150
58
92
2010
302
183
119
36. How do older consumers differ from younger consumers?
Important to differentiate between age-related and generation-related properties
In general more limitations due to
physiological changes
• Reduced sight, hearing, coordination skills,
flexibility to adapt to new technologies
Different view of the world as a
consequence of life experience
Age-
related
Fewer people with these
properties in the future
More people with these
properties in the future
Generation-
related
On average less active on social media
• Got to know the internet at a relatively old
age
On average less inclined to trade up
• Grew up in the period of reconstruction
...
37. On average, senior consumers are different in their abilities
Source: Newsweek; USC; Wikipedia
Age-related physiological
changes affect abilities of seniors
Sensory
system
Nervous
system
Impact on learning and remembering new things
• Increase in memory complaints after 45
Impact on semantic knowledge (e.g., word retrieval)
• Significant decline from age 70
Decreased body movement (rigidity)
Reduced cognitive flexibility and ability to adapt
Visual impairment
• 95% of the 65+ population need glasses to improve their vision
Hearing loss and compromised balance
• ~ 25% of 65- to 74-year-olds and 50% of seniors > 75 report difficulties hearing
Decrease in sense of smell and taste
• 50% lremaining sense of smell by age 80
Decrease in sense of touch and response to painful stimuli
38. Older people have different attitudes towards life
Differences in general well-being and in important values
6.6
6.8
6.4
7.0
Self-reported well-being in the USA (1-10 scale)
Age
827466585042342618
6.2
13%
Difference between percentages of 55+ vs. 0-54 women
that rated dimension as very important in their life1
-8%
-7%
147
4%
12%
0-7-14
-9%
more important for
55+
more important for
<55
1. Answer to question: "Please indicate whether the following items are sources of happiness or dissatisfaction in your life"
Source: What Women Want survey by BCG (2008-2009); total no. of respondents > 14,000
Peace
Stability
Ease
Appreciation
Recognition
Fulfillment
...and their priorities in life differ from younger
peopleOlder people are happier ...
39. 55+ more interested in experiences than material possessions
0-80% 40% 80%-40%
Beauty
Willingness to spend money/ time after retirement
in specific activity (Japan, % of interviewed)
Home electronics
Jewelry
Fashion
Automobiles
Interior accessories
Investment
Medical appliance
House
Dining
Viewing Movies
Computer
Viewing Arts
Reading
Hobbies
Sports
Lifelong study
Foreign tour
Domestic tour
Source: Nikkei Business (Nov. 2002)
Higher willingness to spend
money/ time on experiences
• Traveling
• Cultural activities
• Hobbies
Lower willingness to spend
money/ time on material
possessions
• Housing
• Clothing
• Accessories
40. Companies are increasingly targeting senior consumers
Accommodate physical limitations
Danone Actimel
yoghurt
Unilever Dove soap
CareVacations
cruise services
Ford aging suit
Kaiser's supermarket
"senior" branches
Fidelity investments
website
Denovo design
articles
Docomo
RakuRaku
phones
Samsung
Jitterbug phones
Toyota mobility
robots
NHK broadcast
voice slower
+-
+
Accommodatepreferences
Note: Products' relative positioning in the chart is illustrative
Source: Web and press search; interviews
Keio Dept. Store
Ueshima coffee shops
Rollz walker
41. Priority for all companies dealing with impact of aging: Turn a
threat into an opportunity!
Tomorrow's
flex worker?
Tomorrow's
e-customer?
To turn a threat ... into an opportunity