3. When members of one or more potential
antagonistic parties shared identity
Generate a sense of grievance
Form a goal to change another party so
as to reduce the grievance
Change: Revolution or Conflict?
4. “ I think
Revolution as
well as WARS.
Look at my
Thesis (Jews in
Sensate Culture)
in 1973”
PITIRIM ALEXANDROVICH SOROKIN
5. Self and Other Identity
Identities vary in expanse, from individuals to
vast collectivities, and they may be long enduring
or ephermal.
Ethnic as well as other identities serve as a basis
for mobilization and organization.
Identities are socially constructed on the bases
of various traits and experiences.
Ethnics traits are often socially regarded as set at
birth, such as parental decent, religious origin,
place of birth, and skin color.
6. Internal Characteristic
Many Interrelated internal characteristics
foster forming a self-identified collectivity
1.
2.
3.
4.
Homogenity
Ease of Communication
Clear Boundaries
Organizational Potensial
8. The Conflict Domain
- Conflict Resolution analysts have traditionally include all levels
of conflict from intrapersonal conflict through to International
Conflict, and all stages of conflict escalation and de-escalation.
- Conflict resolution focus to actual or potentially violent conflicts,
ranging from social conflict situations which treathen to become
militarized beyond the capacity of domestic civil police control,
through to full scale interstate war.
9. Five stages of escalation
•
•
•
•
•
Peaceful stable situation
Political tension situation
Violent political conflict
Low intensity conflict
High intensity conflict
10. Transformation in conflict studies
• Traditional Analyst . by Richardson
• Correlates of War (COW) Project . by singer
and small. Defined as conflicts “involving at
least one member of the interstate system on
each side of the war, resulting in a total of
1000 or more battle death”
11. Co’d
• AKUF project by wallensteen, initiated by kende and
developed by gantzel, “conflict as a result of the new
forms of production, monotarization of the economy
and the resulting dissolution of traditional forms of
social integration”
• UPPSALA project concept of armed conflict defined as
prolonged combat between the military forces of two
or more governments, or of one government and at
least one organized armed group, and incurring the
battle related death of at least 1000 people for the
duration of the conflict.
12. Co’d
• CIDCM Project, the minorities at risk project
within this brave, list are drown up of ethnonationalist peoples who have fought sustained or
recurrent campaigns of armed forced aimed at
least in part at securing national independence
for a communal group, or their unification with
kindred groups in adjoining states. Terrorist and
guerilla strategic are count.
• Humanitarianism and war project,populations at
risk in complex humanitarian emergencies.
13. Conflict Trends
• According to the Uppsala University data over
period 1989-1996 there was an almost constant
decline in the number of major armed conflicts
worldwide.
• There was a pattern of conflict in 1990s in which
the prime emphasis was on challanges to
existing state authority, including secessionist
movements which treaten the territorial
integrity of the state and challanges to central
control which may also end in fragmentation
with no one actor in overall command.
14. Distribution
Dengan berakhirnya perang dingin,
pola daerah konflik menjadi lebih
signifikan pada pola regional atau
kawasan.
terdapat
beberapa
perbedaan karakter konflik dari
wilayah satu ke wilayah lain. Terdiri
dari “zones of peace" dan “zones of
war".
15. Variasi Konflik
• Dari setiap regional memiliki karakteristik yang
berbeda-beda.
• “pluralistic security communities”
• Zones of peace
• No-war zones
• Zones of war
16. Conflict Types
• Interstate : Gulf War
• Non-interstate
a) revolution / ideology : Algeria
b) Identity / secession : Sri Lanka
c) Factional : Liberia
18. Holsti’s conflict typology
a) Standard state versus state wars : china and
india in 1962
b) Decolonizing wars of “national liberation”
c) Internal wars based on ideological goals : the
Sendero Luminoso in Peru
d) State-nation wars including armed resistance by
ethnic, language and/or religious groups, often
with the purpose of secession or separation
from the state : the Tamils in Sri Lanka
19. CONFLICT COST
- Manusia
(Terutama Wanita dan anak-anak)
28 juta orang terbunuh dalam 150 konflik
bersenjata di dunia ketiga sejak 1945
(IISS, 1997); 40 juta sipil dan militer
tewas (Leitenberg); PD 2 mengakibatkan
sebanyak 50 persen sipil yang tewas
meningkat sejak PD 1(Lake,ed.,1940)
Terutama di negara berkembang/dunia
ketiga, akibat kelaparan menyebabkan
orang-orang berkonflik untuk mendapatkan
makanan, sebab hal tersebut merupakan cara
agar mereka bertahan hidup (Negara-negara
Afrika: Angola, Eritrea, Liberia,
Mozambique, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan)
20. Co'd
-
Pertumbuhan Ekonomi pada negara yang terlibat
konflik (in context internal conflicts)
Failing production; Failing Exports; Greater
indebtness; Failing social expenditure
- Efek terhadap negara tetangga
Karena masih dalam satu kawasan regional, jelas
akan mengurangi pertumbuhan ekonomi negara
sekitar
- Diversion to military purpose
- TOC
Drugs, senjata, humman trafficking
- Lingkungan Sekitar
22. Conflict Mapping and Conflict
Tracking
•Conflict Mapping?
•First Step in Intervening to Manage a Particular
Conflict. It Gives Both The Intervenor and The
Conflict Parties a Clearer Understanding of The
Origin, Nature, Dynamics and Possibilities for
Resolution of The Conflict. (Paul Wehr/1997:18)
23. A Conflict Mapping Guide
A. Background
B. The Conflict Parties and
Issues
C. The Context: Global,
Regional, and State-Level
Actors. (Wehr:1979)
24. Co'd
Next Step?
Menggunakan informasi di map untuk
mengidentifikasi cakupan resolusi konflik.
Perubahan dalam konteks yang mana dapat
merubah situasi konflik
Perubahan dalam atau antar pihak yang
berkonflik
Meredefinisi tujuan dan mencari alternatif untuk
menyelesaikan perbedaan
25. Co'd
Conflict Tracking?
For Keep Updating
How?
Internet
Terdapat beberapa website yang dirancang untuk conflict
tracking, diantaranya:
www.icg.org, www.euroconflict.org, www.incore.ulst.ac.uk.