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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               May, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
www.LeveragedLoan.com
European Market Trends
Text




       Market slowdown, with the sovereign debt crisis
       returning to center stage in April ...

        • Primary Market: Both loans and bonds saw a
        lack of substantial activity.

       • Secondary Market: Both loan and high yield
       bonds bids fell in the secondary.

       • Default rates fell during the month though are
       expected to rise during the year.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99


     97

                                               Text
      96


      94


       93


          91

            1/11         3/11        5/11         7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12 4/12
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102


     98


     94
                                  Text
     89


     85


     81
          1/11      3/11   5/11   7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12 4/12
.    Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly)
     3.0%
                                                   April 2012:      +0.24%
                           Text                    March 2012:     + 0.99%
                                                   Jan-Apr 2012:   + 4.62%
                                                   Jan-Apr 2011:   + 4.78%
     1.8%




     0.5%




    (0.8%)




    (2.0%)
        2/10 4/10 6/10 8/20 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12

.      Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
ELLI Returns for PIIGS vs. Non-PIIGS

                  ELLI performs in line with broader markets:




.   Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly)
            12
                                                          HY bonds - Jan-Apr 2012 = 36% lower than 2011
                                      Text
                                                          Loans       - Jan-Apr 2012 = 48% lower than 2011
            9
€billions




            6




            3
                                                                                                               €1.4B

                                                                                                               €1.4B
            0
                3/11   4/11   5/11   6/11   7/11   8/11   9/11   10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12   2/12   3/12   4/30

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Cross-Border Leveraged Finance Volume
            30.0
                                                               European borrowers going to US
                                                               US borrowers going to Europe

            22.5
€billions




            15.0




             7.5




               0
                   2007         2008         2009       2010   2011   Jan-Apr 2011 Jan-Apr 2012


 .          Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                        Default Rate by Issuer Count

    16%                                                        16%




    12%                                                        12%




    8%                                                          8%
                                                             Text

    4%                                                          4%




    0%                                                          0%
      2/09            3/10            4/11            4/12        2/09    2/10          2/11            4/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Looking Ahead
out
      • Sovereign debt crisis encourages opportunistic transactions
      during periods of ‘risk-on’.


      • Issuers will continue to tap US market, and will perform
      bond-for-loan takeouts.

      • Some arrangers more comfortable underwriting senior secured
      bridge loans to high yield, then flexing and structuring capital
      structure.


      • The flow of amendment requests from issuers will continue.


      • May could prove to be yet another bumper month for inflows.
Text
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May 2012, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update May, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 3. European Market Trends Text Market slowdown, with the sovereign debt crisis returning to center stage in April ... • Primary Market: Both loans and bonds saw a lack of substantial activity. • Secondary Market: Both loan and high yield bonds bids fell in the secondary. • Default rates fell during the month though are expected to rise during the year.
  • 4. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 97 Text 96 94 93 91 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 4/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 5. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 98 94 Text 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 4/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 6. ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly) 3.0% April 2012: +0.24% Text March 2012: + 0.99% Jan-Apr 2012: + 4.62% Jan-Apr 2011: + 4.78% 1.8% 0.5% (0.8%) (2.0%) 2/10 4/10 6/10 8/20 10/10 12/10 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/11 12/11 2/12 4/12 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 7. ELLI Returns for PIIGS vs. Non-PIIGS ELLI performs in line with broader markets: . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 8. New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly) 12 HY bonds - Jan-Apr 2012 = 36% lower than 2011 Text Loans - Jan-Apr 2012 = 48% lower than 2011 9 €billions 6 3 €1.4B €1.4B 0 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/30 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Cross-Border Leveraged Finance Volume 30.0 European borrowers going to US US borrowers going to Europe 22.5 €billions 15.0 7.5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-Apr 2011 Jan-Apr 2012 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 10. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 12% 12% 8% 8% Text 4% 4% 0% 0% 2/09 3/10 4/11 4/12 2/09 2/10 2/11 4/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 11. Looking Ahead out • Sovereign debt crisis encourages opportunistic transactions during periods of ‘risk-on’. • Issuers will continue to tap US market, and will perform bond-for-loan takeouts. • Some arrangers more comfortable underwriting senior secured bridge loans to high yield, then flexing and structuring capital structure. • The flow of amendment requests from issuers will continue. • May could prove to be yet another bumper month for inflows.
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