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US Leveraged Finance Market Update
             July, 2012
  Steve Miller - Managing Director
Volume - Down in Second Quarter

$105B

            Text                                                   Other
                                                                   M&A


 $70B




  $35B




    $0B

          2Q10       3Q10        4Q10        1Q11    2Q11   3Q11   4Q11    1Q12   2Q12


         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price
97




 95




 93




 91




 89

  1/31 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/1111/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Visible Loan Flows

$6B

                                            CLO Issuance
                                            Loan Mutual Flows
$3B




                                                        Text
$0B




-$3B




-$6B
       6/11   7/11    8/11   9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12       2/12   3/12   4/12   5/12   6/12


      Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
Loan Forward Calendar

                         All                                                    M&A
$45B                                                    $30B




$30B                                                    $20B




$15B                                                    $10B




$0B                                                     $0B
        2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/1112/11 2/12 4/12 6/12          2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/1112/11 2/12 4/12 5/12




Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans
9%




8%




7%




6%




5%
 1/31 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/1111/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12


Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Loan Default Rate

 12%


10%


 7%



5%



2%



0%
 12/98       8/00       4/02      12/03     8/05   4/07   12/08   8/10   4/12

Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
A few final points


• Concerns easing, but remain



• Some hope for better-than-expected
  summer volume


• Europe, Europe, Europe
Follow LCD

www.lcdcomps.com
news, analysis, research, archives


www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432
LCD Leveraged Loan Group ...
8,000+ contacts


www.twitter.com/lcdnews
Headlines, market chatter


www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/
Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
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July 2012, US Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text US Leveraged Finance Market Update July, 2012 Steve Miller - Managing Director
  • 2. Volume - Down in Second Quarter $105B Text Other M&A $70B $35B $0B 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 3. S&P/LSTA Index - Average Price 97 95 93 91 89 1/31 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/1111/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. Visible Loan Flows $6B CLO Issuance Loan Mutual Flows $3B Text $0B -$3B -$6B 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data, EPFR
  • 5. Loan Forward Calendar All M&A $45B $30B $30B $20B $15B $10B $0B $0B 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/1112/11 2/12 4/12 6/12 2/11 4/11 6/11 8/11 10/1112/11 2/12 4/12 5/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 6. Average New-Issue Clearing Yield of First Lien Loans 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 1/31 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/1111/1112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. Loan Default Rate 12% 10% 7% 5% 2% 0% 12/98 8/00 4/02 12/03 8/05 4/07 12/08 8/10 4/12 Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. A few final points • Concerns easing, but remain • Some hope for better-than-expected summer volume • Europe, Europe, Europe
  • 9. Follow LCD www.lcdcomps.com news, analysis, research, archives www.linkedin.com/groups/LCD-Leveraged-Loan-Group-2092432 LCD Leveraged Loan Group ... 8,000+ contacts www.twitter.com/lcdnews Headlines, market chatter www.facebook.com/lcdcomps/ Daily Playbook, headlines, video analysis
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