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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
December, 2013
Sucheet Gupte - Director
European Market Trends
Text

• Loan issuance was €5.4B in November 2013, while high yield issuance was €7.4B for the month.
• Secondary markets were up:
leveraged loan markets were up 27 bps to close at 100.73;
high yield markets were up 14 bps to finish 105.33.
• Inflows into European high yield funds for November are estimated to be €1B, bringing
the estimated year-to-date number to an enormous €6.3B.

• The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) was up for November, with returns at 1.18%.

• 4 CLOs priced this month, bringing monthly issuance to €1.62B and year-to-date issuance to €6.45B.
• Default rates were higher even though no new issuers defaulted (the overall par amount outstanding
in the ELLI decreased).
European Loan Flow Name Prices
101

99

Text
98

96
94

93
91
3/11
.

5/11

7/11

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

9/11

11/11 1/12

3/12

5/12

7/12

9/12 10/12 12/12 2/13

4/13

6/13

8/13

11/13
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices
106

102

Text

98
94
89
85
81
3/11
.

5/11

Source: Bloomberg

7/11

9/11 11/11 1/12

3/12

5/12

7/12

9/12 11/12 1/13

3/13

5/13 6/13

8/13

11/13
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
1.5%

Text

November 2013:
October 2013:
Jan-Nov 2013:
Jan-Nov 2012:

+ 1.18%
+ 1.02%
+ 8.21%
+ 8.70%

1.0%

0.6%

0.1%

-0.4%

11/12
.

12/12

1/13

2/13

Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13
Volume: New-Issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
18
HY bonds

Text

Loans

€billions

14

€7.4B

9

5

€5.4B
0
11/12
.

12/12

1/13

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

2/13

3/13

4/13

5/13

6/13

7/13

8/13

9/13

10/13

11/13
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
Default Rate by Principal Amount

Default Rate by Issuer Count

16%

16%

13%

13%

10%

10%

Text

6%

6%

3%

0%
2/09
.

3%

0%
2/09

2/10

2/11

Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD

12/11

11/13

2/10

12/11

2/12

11/13
Themes To Watch For
Text

• Both the high yield market and leveraged loan market are buoyant and open,
with the loan market currently having a slight edge.

• Issuers will also look to tap the US market for both loans and high yield bonds
in finding the best execution.

• The CLO market is still strong, with seven transactions still in the pipeline.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that managers are seeing inflows into global loan
accounts.
Text

Text

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December 2013, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update December, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • Loan issuance was €5.4B in November 2013, while high yield issuance was €7.4B for the month. • Secondary markets were up: leveraged loan markets were up 27 bps to close at 100.73; high yield markets were up 14 bps to finish 105.33. • Inflows into European high yield funds for November are estimated to be €1B, bringing the estimated year-to-date number to an enormous €6.3B. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) was up for November, with returns at 1.18%. • 4 CLOs priced this month, bringing monthly issuance to €1.62B and year-to-date issuance to €6.45B. • Default rates were higher even though no new issuers defaulted (the overall par amount outstanding in the ELLI decreased).
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 101 99 Text 98 96 94 93 91 3/11 . 5/11 7/11 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 10/12 12/12 2/13 4/13 6/13 8/13 11/13
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 3/11 . 5/11 Source: Bloomberg 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 3/13 5/13 6/13 8/13 11/13
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 1.5% Text November 2013: October 2013: Jan-Nov 2013: Jan-Nov 2012: + 1.18% + 1.02% + 8.21% + 8.70% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% -0.4% 11/12 . 12/12 1/13 2/13 Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13
  • 6. Volume: New-Issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 18 HY bonds Text Loans €billions 14 €7.4B 9 5 €5.4B 0 11/12 . 12/12 1/13 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 2/13 3/13 4/13 5/13 6/13 7/13 8/13 9/13 10/13 11/13
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% Text 6% 6% 3% 0% 2/09 . 3% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 Source: S&P Capital IQ/LCD 12/11 11/13 2/10 12/11 2/12 11/13
  • 8. Themes To Watch For Text • Both the high yield market and leveraged loan market are buoyant and open, with the loan market currently having a slight edge. • Issuers will also look to tap the US market for both loans and high yield bonds in finding the best execution. • The CLO market is still strong, with seven transactions still in the pipeline. Anecdotal evidence suggests that managers are seeing inflows into global loan accounts.
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