No one can know for certain when the global economy will find a bottom, but UBS Wealth ManagementResearch – mericas (WMR) analysts have been predicting a moderate cyclical recovery in the second half of 2009. Their recommendations may very well affect your portfolio.
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Forecast: Worst of the Storm has Passed
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Market outlook
Forecast: worst of the storm has passed
Market outlook is a monthly publication to help inform your investment strategy August 2009
No one can know for certain when the global economy WMR assigned a 55% probability rate to its “Moderate
will find a bottom, but UBS Wealth Management Portfolio” scenario for the 12-month horizon, indicating a
Research – Americas (WMR) analysts have been recovery that falls into the low-growth, “not too hot, not too
predicting a moderate cyclical recovery in the second cold” Goldilocks zone.)
half of 2009. Their recommendations may very well
affect your portfolio. “While we’re fairly confident a recovery is in the making,
we do not expect it to represent a rapid return to business
Signs of recovery: as usual,” stresses Stephen Freedman, CFA®, WMR’s Global
Economy gains traction, markets respond Investment Strategist. “Instead, we anticipate a cyclical
In order for the ongoing rally in risky assets (where the return rebound followed by a period of several years of lower-than-
is uncertain) to continue, as WMR recently explained, markets average growth.”
would need hard evidence that the recovery process in both
the economy and in corporate earnings was gaining traction. It’s noteworthy that the U.S. economy—first to be drawn
Well, the economy and companies recently delivered and into the recession—seems to be among the first to reemerge,
financial markets have responded. a tribute to the massive policy stimulus, according to WMR.
Analysts point out that although it’s unlikely the economy would
And while lending conditions remain tight relative to history, currently recover without government intervention, signs of self-
WMR’s U.S. credit health thermometer indicates significant healing should allow the private sector to support further growth
improvement since the beginning of the year, a trend WMR once the impact of public stimulus starts to fade.
expects to persist and gradually provide more breathing room
for businesses and consumers. Deleveraging in the economy is Given the sheer magnitude of the monetary policy response,
under way and the housing market appears to be stabilizing, concerns about inflation are unsurprising, yet WMR feels
with home prices increasing over the prior month for the it will be kept at bay for the near term. First, a slack in the
first time since the downturn began. Another factor that economy will curtail rising prices; second, the output gap,
should provide further support to GDP growth is inventory used as a measure of free capacity, is at trough levels which
restocking. The extreme caution that has been prevalent in can’t be expected to generate price pressure on the markets
the corporate sector has led to inventories that are unusually for goods and services in the near term; and third, the labor
low even in relation to depressed sales. market is not in a position to start a wage-price spiral. “We
believe inflation will overshoot the Federal Reserve’s comfort
Enthusiasm over the recent positive signs must be tempered, zone, eventually reach the 4-5% range and stay there for
however, by WMR’s base-case scenario of a moderate cyclical some time,” says Freedman. “However, we don’t expect
recovery in the second half of this year. (See the chart, where this to happen before 2011 at the earliest—too soon to