Richmond Housing Today August 2013

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties
www.RichmondHousingToday.com
11
The Greater Richmond Real
Estate Market
Lacy Williams
Joyner Fine Properties
August 2013

22
Background
• This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA
housing Market as well as the National Market.
• Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from
Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of
Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current
Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to
www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on
the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.
• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by
Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple
Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in August 2013
for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the
city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield,
Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.

33
The National Market

44
80
90
100
110
120
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2013 2012 2011
January 2012 – December 2012
100 = Historically Healthy Level
National Pending Home Sales
NAR 7/2013
Source: Keeping Current Matters 8/13
Nationwide, pending home sales have been rising for the past 2 ½ years. This is similar to the trend in Richmond.

55
Nationwide Months Inventory of
Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May
NAR 7/2013
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
Nationwide inventory has dropped dramatically in the past 2 years and has gone up slightly over the past few months. This
is similar to the Richmond market.

66
Projected Percentage Increase
Home Price Expectation Survey
Home Price Expectation Survey 7/2013
The Home Price Expectation Survey is a yearly survey of over 100 leading real estate experts,
economists, and financial analysts. This graph is the average of their predictions on price increases.

77
Distressed Property Numbers Diving
Distressed inventories have fallen
14.4% so far this year
Completed foreclosures are
down 20% from last year
National foreclosure inventory is
down 28% from last year
Seriously delinquent loans are
down 23.7% from a year ago
-14.4%
-20%
-28%
-23.7%
CoreLogic 7/2013

88
Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
3Q 2014
Fannie Mae 5.0%
National Assoc of Realtors 4.8%
Freddie Mac 5.1%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 4.9%
7/2013
Mortgage rates have gone from approximately 3.5% to 4.5%. Mortgage rates are projected to go
higher during the next 12 months as shown in this graph.

99
Date Price
Interest
Rate
P&I
Last Year $400,000 3.5% $1,796.18
This Year $420,000 4.5% $2,128.08
Difference in Payment - $331.90
The Cost of Waiting a Year
Waiting to buy a house is not a good strategy as the cost of the house is going to continue to rise with price
appreciation and higher interest rates. The same house will cost you more next year.

1010
“The housing market
has bottomed. It's not
too late to get
involved. I still think
buying a home is the
best investment any
individual can make.
Affordability is still at
an all-time high. Buy a
home and, if you can,
buy a second home.”
John Paulson

1111
Greater Richmond
Housing Market
Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of
Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield,
Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central
Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)

1212
Market Indicator #1:
The Number of Sales is
Up!!!

1313
Greater Richmond Single Family Closed Sales
12737
15262 15533 16450 15074
12644
9482 9069 8574 9051 10177
6773
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
8/9)
Year
NoofClosedSales
Number of Single Family House Sales by Year
The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half
of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than
2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%.
Source: CVRMLS data 8/9/13

1414
Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter
Second quarter sales have risen
for the past three years. 2013
second quarter sales were higher
than 2010 sales when there was
a Federal tax credit and were
higher than the past five years.
2013 second quarter sales were
38% higher than in 2009.
Source: CVRMLS Data 8/9/13
The first Quarter of 2013 is 7% higher
than 2012 and 26% higher than 2010.
Sales in the first quarter have risen for
three straight years and are higher
than the past 5 years.
Single Family Sales By Year in First Quarter
3161
2892
2088
1487 1612
1801 1924 2057
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
NoofClosedFirst
QuarterSales
Greater Richmond Singld Family Sales for Second
Quarter
4567
3919
2910
2533
3013
2657
3069
3387
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
NoofClosedSales

1515
Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales
by Year
4111
3421
2526 2692
1999
2496
2772
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NumberofClosed
Sales
Third and Fourth Quarter Sales
2012 is 11% higher than 2011.
Source: CVRMLS Data 8/9/13
Sales in the third quarter of 2012
were higher than sales for the
past 4 years!! 2012 fourth
quarter sales are 10.6%
higher than 2011 fourth
quarter sales. Note that 2009
had a tax credit during the
fourth quarter.
Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in
Fourth Quarter by Year
3222
2362
1707
2357
1847
2123
2347
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NumberofSales

1616
Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales
1761
2035
1757
1382
1154 1093 1201
1420
947
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Thru
8/8/13)
Year
NumberofCondominium
Sales
Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10%
higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!!

1717
Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter
Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium
Sales by Year
428
376
310
190 189
242
275 294
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
NoofFirstQuarter
Sales
The second quarter of 2013 had more
sales than the previous 5 years
including 2010 when there was a
federal tax credit. 2013 second
quarter sales were 40% higher than
2009 second quarter sales.
Source: CVRMLS data
The first quarter of 2013 had more
sales than the first quarter of the
previous 4 years. 2013 first
quarter sales were 4% higher
than 2012 sales and 52% higher
than 2008 sales..
2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales.
Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium Sales
for Second Quarter
601
529
420
324
431
344
402
456
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
NumberofClosed
CondominiumSales

1818
Source: CVRMLS data
Greater Richmond Third Quarter Condminium
Sales by Year
578
499
355 345
219
325
393
0
200
400
600
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
NumberofSales
Third quarter sales in 2012 were
higher than third quarter sales of the
previous 4 years!!. The fourth quarter
of 2012 had 18% more sales than the
fourth quarter of 2011.
Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters
Greater Richmond Condominium and
Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter
424
339
233
288
225
287
338
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Year
FourthQuarterSales

1919
Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales
In the Condominium market, Year over Year
number of sales by price point have
increased in all price points with dramatic
increases in the higher price points..
In the single family market,
Year over Year number of
sales by price point have
increased in all price points
Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater
Richmond
Price Range 8/11-7/12 8/12-7/13 Change
$0-$250,000 6648 6917 4.05%
$250,001-$500,000 2649 3230 21.93%
$500,001-$750,000 439 545 24.15%
$750,001-$1,000,000 97 128 31.96%
$1,000,001+ 44 56 27.27%
Number of Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond
Price Range 8/11-7/12 8/12-7/13 Change
$0-$250,000 1060 1160 9.43%
$250,001-$500,000 313 388 23.96%
$500,001+ 15 49 226.67%

2020
Inventory is Down!!!

2121
Months Market Pricing
1-4 Sellers Appreciation
5-6 Even The Norm
7+ Buyers Depreciation
Months Supply’s Impact on Price
As shown on the graph, the amount of inventory determines if it is a Sellers or a Buyers market. In most
areas of Richmond, we are now in a Buyer’s market.

2222
Inventory of Single Family Houses By Month
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
InventoryofHouses
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inventory of Single Family Houses
by Month in Greater Richmond
The supply of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year.
After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has
continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. Inventory has had a slight rise in the past few months as the market is returning to a
normal market of 5-6 months of inventory. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago.
Source: CVRMLS data

2323
Single Family Inventory by Price Range
The inventory of houses is lowest at the lower price points. As lower priced houses sell, the Sellers will move up
to higher priced houses and the inventory of higher priced houses should start going down. There are clearly still
challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. However, the number of sales at the higher price points is
increasing. Houses in the higher price points must be competitively priced to sell.
Price Range Active
Sold 8/12-
7/13
Inventory
(Months)
$0-$250,000 2497 6848.0 4.4
$250,001-$500,000 1294 3194.0 4.9
$500,001-$750,000 306 537.0 6.8
$750,001-$1,000,000 110 125.0 10.6
$1,000,001+ 72 55.0 15.7

2424
Inventory of Single Family Houses in Greater
Richmond (August 2013)
4.4 4.0
5.7
9.8
4.8
7.2
4.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Cityof
Richmond
Henrico
Hanover
Goochland
Chesterfield
Powhatan
All
Richmond
Area
Inventory(Months)
Single Family Inventory by Area
The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal
market or even a Seller’s market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and fewer
sales and are still Buyer’s markets..

2525
Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by
Year and Month in Greater Richmond
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Month
MonthsofInventory
2010
2011
2012
2013
Inventory of Condominiums
The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of
2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater
Richmond and today there are 512.. The inventory in August 2013 is more than 6 months less than in December of 2010.
Source: CVRMLS data

2626
Prices have bottomed out
and are rising!!!

2727
Average Sales Price By Month
$150,000
$170,000
$190,000
$210,000
$230,000
$250,000
$270,000
$290,000
$310,000
$330,000 Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Month
AverageSalesPrice
Single Family Average Sales Price By Month
The average sales price in Greater Richmond is rising. Note that the spring peak in prices in 2012 was higher than 2011
and the low points during the winter are also higher.

2828
Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed
House Sales in Greater Richmond
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Month
PricePerSquareFootFor
ClosedSales
Greater Richmond Single Family Price
Per Square Foot by Month
Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the spring high in 2013 already higher
than in 2012 year and the winter low did not occur in 2013..

2929
Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot
For Closed House Sales By Year
$92.37
$99.65
$107.60
$123.38
$135.82$139.64
$132.43
$117.82
$112.24
$104.98$106.16
$113.16
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
8/9)
Year
PricePerSquareFoot
Average Price Per Square Foot By Year for
Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond
Prices have started to rise in Greater Richmond with 2013 prices being approximately 6.5% higher than 2012 prices. With
a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line
on this graph.

3030
Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From
Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond
7.9% 8.0%
14.7%
10.1%
2.8%
-5.2%
-11.0%
-4.7%
-6.5%
1.1%
6.6%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(Thru
8/9)
Single Family Year over Year Price Change
Year over year price change shows that as 2012 and 2013 prices increasing after 4 years of declines. In this graph, the
7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2013, prices are up 6.6%.

3131
Greater Richmond Single Family
Price Per Square Foot by Quarter
$75.00
$85.00
$95.00
$105.00
$115.00
$125.00
$135.00
$145.00
2007-01
2007-02
2007-03
2007-04
2008-01
2008-02
2008-03
2008-04
2009-01
2009-02
2009-03
2009-04
2010-01
2010-02
2010-03
2010-04
2011-01
2011-02
2011-03
2011-04
2012-01
2012-02
2012-03
2012-04
2013-01
2013-02
Quarter
PriceperSquareFoot
31
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter
First Quarter
Sales
Second Quarter
Sales
Fourth Quarter
Sales
Third Quarter
Sales
Source: CVRMLS data
When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2013 is
higher than the previous two years. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011 and
2013 is a huge increase from 2012.. The third quarter is in blue and 2012 third quarter 2012 prices are higher than 2011 third quarter prices.
The fourth quarter is in green and 2012 fourth quarter prices are significantly higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices.
The turn in the market!!!

3232
Change in Single Family Price Per Square Foot Between
8/11-7/12 and 8/12-7/13
14.29%
4.41%
2.00%
6.66%
5.23%
3.07%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
Cityof
Richmond
Henrico
Hanover
Goochland
Chesterfield
Powhatan
Area
ChangeinPricePer
SquareFoot
2011 vs 2012 Prices By County
Prices have risen year over year in all areas with dramatic rises in the city of Richmond.

3333
Monthly Change in Prices
This graph shows the change in price per square foot from one month to the same month a year later. For example on the
right of the graph, July of 2013 price per square foot was 7.64% higher than in July of 2012. There are a normal monthly
fluctuation but the trend in prices is significantly up.
Change in Prices from Previous Year
-5.79%
4.74%
-2.81%
-2.24%
1.16%
3.71%
1.64%
1.16%
3.08%
10.46%
6.21%
2.73%
8.74%
7.88%
8.33%
7.79%
9.56%
3.18%
7.64%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
Jan11-Jan12
Feb11-Feb12
Mar11-Mar12
Apr11-Apr12
May11-May12
Jun11-Jun12
Jul11-Jul12
Aug11-Aug12
Sep11-Sep12
Oct11-Oct12
Nov11-Nov12
Dec11-Dec12
Jan12-Jan13
Feb12-Feb13
Mar12-Mar13
April12-April13
May12-May13
Jun12-Jun13
Jul12-Jul13
Change in Price Per Square Foot

3434
Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium
Sales in Greater Richmond
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
$150.00
$160.00
$170.00
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Month
PricePerSquareFoot
Condominium Price Per Square Foot
Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past
year.

3535
Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By
Year
$90.84
$100.03
$113.32
$133.49
$149.49$154.00$152.70
$135.62$131.55
$119.16$121.13
$129.05
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
(Thru
8/8/13)
Year
PriceperSquareFoot
Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond
Condominium Sales By Year
The price per square foot for condominium sales is almost at 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2013
are 6.5% higher than 2012. Prices are expected to continue rising for 2013 and 2014. There was a 23% decrease in
prices between 2007 and 2011.

3636
Greater Richmond Year over Year Price
Per Square Foot Change By Price Range
In the single family market, prices have increased in
all price points except the highest price points.
Remember that the highest inventory is also at the
highest price points causing price pressure..
In the condominium market, price per square foot is
increasing in the lower and middle price points.
There is still price pressure at the higher price
points.
Single Family Condominium/Townhouse
Price per Square Foot Change in Greater
Richmond
Price Range
8/11-
7/12
8/12-
7/13 Change
$0-$250,000 $86.04 $90.66 5.37%
$250,001-$500,000 $120.63 $125.45 4.00%
$500,001-$750,000 $149.05 $153.72 3.13%
$750,001-
$1,000,000 $171.42 $178.67 4.23%
$1,000,001+ $219.99 $219.91 -0.04%
Condominium Price per Square Foot Change
in Greater Richmond
Price Range
8/11-
7/12
8/12-
7/13
Chang
e
$0-$250,000 $105.59 $108.58 2.83%
$250,001-
$500,000 $148.70 $155.24 4.40%
$500,001+ $202.08 $199.56 -1.25%

3737
Richmond Real Estate Areas
The Richmond Association of
Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas
as shown in the graph. The following
analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24,
30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60,
62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.

3838
Active Listings By Area (As of 8/26/13)
220
61
251
187
125 132
247 261
195 200
269
145
444
552
203
428
157
201
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66
Area
NumberofActiveSingle
FamilyListings
Active Single Family Listings By Area
The number of active listings by area is shown. There are approximately 3560 fewer homes on the market than two
years age. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the
lowest.

3939
Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House Sales (8/1/12-
7/31/13)$237,350
$445,082
$312,598
$414,809
$148,906
$147,404
$329,099
$276,745
$143,620
$109,375
$228,475
$60,445
$168,980
$210,845
$202,469
$243,078
$354,985
$263,446
$242,148
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
Area
AverageSalesPrice
Single Family Average Sales Price By Area
Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50
having the lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond for the past year
is $242,148

4040
Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House
Closed Sales By Area (8/1/12-7/31/13)
$119.21
$184.34
$129.27
$129.79
$82.05
$93.63
$123.05
$114.34
$81.84
$68.32
$109.74
$43.70
$85.16
$95.05
$102.96
$102.44
$114.27
$111.86
$105.85
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
Area
PricePerSquareFoot
Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area
Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest
price per square foot. The average across greater Richmond is $105.85.

4141
Supply of Houses by Area in Months
4.5
2.1
2.8
9.8
4.0 4.0 3.5
6.1
5.5
6.7
5.4
7.1
5.8 5.3 4.9
4.0 3.8
7.2
4.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
10
20
22
24
30
32
34
36
40
42
44
50
52
54
60
62
64
66
AllRichmond
Area
MonthsofSupply Inventory of Single Family Houses
As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have
the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and
Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses at 9.8 and 7.2 months. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it has
a higher inventory at 7.1 months. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 4.7 months which is better than an
normal market.
Red Line represents a normal market.

4242
Summary

4343
Existing Home Sales
14,767 US Homes Sell Every Day
and 10,631 Buyers Receive a Mortgage Every Day
NAR 12/2011
In spite of the recent
downturn, home
ownership
continues to be the
best long-term
investment in the
US!!!
Source: Keeping Current Matters

4444
Summary
• Sales are up
• Inventory is down
• Prices are rising.
• The interest rate is rising
• DO NOT WAIT TO BUY A
HOUSE!!! IT WILL COST YOU A
LOT MORE NEXT YEAR!!

Richmond Housing Today August 2013

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Richmond Housing Today August 2013