1. The PERT approach

4. A-M-B time estimate

5. Beta distribution

6. Expected time and variance

9. Characteristics of a Normal Distribution Mean, median, and mode are equal Normal curve is symmetrical Theoretically, curve extends to infinity a - 5 0 . 4 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 1 . 0 x f ( x r a l i t r b u i o n :  = 0 ,   = 1

14. Areas Under the Normal Curve - 5 0 . 4 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 1 . 0 x f ( x r a l i t r b u i o n :  = 0 ,   = 1

18. -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 P(0 <z<. 8) =.2881 EXAMPLE 3 0 <x<. 8 - 5 0 . 4 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 1 . 0 x f ( x r a l i t r b u i o n :  = 0 ,

22. The Statistical Distribution of all Possible Times for an Activity

23. Activity Expected Time and Variance

28. An AON Network

29. An MSP Version of a Sample Problem Network

30. A Pert/CPM Network for the Day Care Project

31. An MSP Calendar for the Day Care Project, 4/16/00 to 5/27/00

32. The Probability of Completing the Project on Time =NORMDIST( D ,  ,   ,TRUE)

33. The Statistical Distribution of Completion Times of the Path a-b-d-g-h

34. Selecting Risk and Finding D NORMINV(probability,  ,   ,TRUE)

35. SIMULATION

37. EXTENSIONS TO PERT/CPM

39. Figure 5-27 Precedence Diagramming Conventions

41. 3 2 1 6, 7 Inspection and testing 8 11 4 3 4, 5 Install air pollution device 7 9 2 1 3 Install control system 6 7 4 1 3 Build high-temperature burner 5 6 4 2 2 Pour concrete and install frame 4 3 2 1 1 Construct collection stack 3 4 3 2 none Modify roof and floor 2 3 2 1 none Build internal components 1 Pessimistic Duration Most Likely Duration Optimistic Duration Prerequisites Task Description Task ID