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Urban India 2011: Evidence
Original publication: November 22, 2011. Second Edition: December 22, 2011. Third Edition: January 21, 2012
Urban India 2011: Evidence
URBAN INDIA 2011: EVIDENCE
                                                         We would like to thank the several contributing authors in particular:
                                                         Professor Martha Chen of Harvard University and Dr. Govindan
                                                         Raveendran for generously sharing their analysis of 1999-2009 NSS
                                                         data on urban employment; Somik Lall and the World Bank team
                                                         working on the India Urbanisation Review for sharing their results
                                                         on India’s economic geography and in particular the distribution
                                                         of employment. Dr. Jyotsna Jha and Madhusudan B.V. of the Centre for
                                                         Budgetary and Policy Studies, Bangalore provided intriguing data on
                                                         Municipal Finance.


IUC AUTHOR AND PRODUCTION TEAM                                                                                              PHOTO CREDITS:
Aromar Revi, IIHS                                                                                                           Cover Image - Red Fort : F.S. Shazuddin
Charis Idicheria, IIHS                                                                                                      Urban Dynamics: IIHS Geospatial Lab
Garima Jain, IIHS                                                                                                           Economic Geography - Gurgaoun High Rises: F.S. Shazuddin
Geetika Anand, IIHS                                                                                                         Migration - Old Delhi Railway Station: Kavita Wankhade, IIHS
Dr. H.S. Sudhira, IIHS                                                                                                      Urban Poverty & Livelihoods - Okhla: Garima Jain, IIHS
Dr. Jessica Seddon, IIHS                                                                                                    Social Safety Nets - Abul Fazal Enclave: Garima Jain, IIHS
Kavita Wankhade, IIHS                                                                                                       Urban Infrastructure - Metro Gurgaon: F.S. Shazuddin
M.K. Rashmi, IIHS                                                                                                           Urban Finance - Public Investments: Himanshu Dhandha, IIHS
Priyadarshini Shetty, IIHS
Revati Dhoble, CDF, IFMR
Shashikala Gowda, IIHS
Shriya Anand, IIHS
Sujatha Srinivasan, CDF, IFMR


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                                                     This report is produced by Autumn Worldwide | www.autumnworldwide.com
Urban India 2011: Evidence




     India’s urban transition, a once in history phenomenon, has the             as convenient linkages between economic hubs? Will cities grow as
     potential to shift the country’s social, environmental, political, and      compact, efficient densely populated areas or continue to spread out
     economic trajectory. It could catalyse the end of calorie poverty           over larger and larger territories? Will more people connect to the
     if post-1989 China is any example. It could deepen democracy and            electricity grid or will diesel generators continue to power the emerging
     human development, enabling more Indians to live better quality,            suburbs – this is an important question for emissions and energy
     healthier, and better-educated lives. It could enable the country's         security, above and beyond the more prominent discussion about the
     transition to a less resource- Intensive development, with lower            move from coal to renewable energy.
     throughputs, footprints and environmental impacts that could reshape        Third, urbanisation will, for better or for worse, play an enormous role
     global trends because of India’s demographic and economic size.             in social transformation and economic mobility. It may exacerbate
     But these are only aspirations. Hard evidence indicates that much work      inequalities, create new opportunities, or both. Cities could be engines
     needs to be done to realise these opportunities over the next twenty        of poverty reduction, both within their boundaries and through the
     to thirty years.                                                            financial, people, and goods flow between urban and rural India. They
     India’s urbanisation will interact with the country’s ongoing               could also replicate existing social stratification and exacerbate the
     demographic evolution to shape the extent of the “demographic               misery of poverty by concentrating the poor in smaller, more polluted,
     dividend” as a young labour force moves into more or less productive        more market-dependent, less safe areas.
     employment with unknown opportunities for economic and social               In short, urbanisation is a transition to be reckoned with.
     mobility. The process will help redefine India’s imagination as a country
     that lives primarily in its villages with limited movement across           IIHS originally produced this book for the India Urban Conference:
     geographies. We will need to understand and deepen the linkages that        Evidence and Experience (IUC 2011), a series of events designed to raise
     enable small urban centres to become catalysts for rural non-farm           the salience of urban challenges and opportunities in the ongoing debate
     employment, sites of opportunities, and a foundation for eliminating        on India’s development. The series, comprising an academic conference
     rural poverty and exclusion.                                                in New Haven, CT, USA, an ideas-forum and discussion of emerging
                                                                                 evidence and research in Mysore, a policy conference in Delhi, and
     The spatial patterns of urbanisation will also affect the possibilities     a national student challenge seeking innovative proposals for urban
     for the country to pioneer new, less resource-intensive forms               solutions, was convened by the Indian Institute for Human Settlements
     of development. India has lower measured emissions per unit of output       (IIHS), Janaagraha Centre for Citizenship and Democracy (JCCD), and
     than many other countries at the moment, but the emerging economic          the South Asian Studies Council at Yale University, in collaboration with
     geography will determine whether this pattern can be sustained as           the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation and the Ministry
     growth continues and consumption increases. Will road transport             of Urban Development of the Government of India. The events also
     continue to dominate shipping or will rail and inland waterways emerge
relied on the expertise and networks of Context Anchors including           The Urban India 2011: Evidence also marks the initiation of a series
Arghyam, Bangalore; DRONAH (Development and Research                        of thematic Urban Atlases in collaboration with leading scholars and
Organisation for Nature Art and Heritage), Gurgaon; IFMR Finance            practitioners. The Indian Institute for Human Settlements is firmly
Foundation, Chennai; PHFI (Public Health Foundation of India), Delhi;       committed to furthering “basic research” - to borrow an academic term
India Urban Space Foundation (IUSF), Bangalore; SPA (School                 from the natural sciences - that helps civil society, academics, and policy
of Planning and Architecture), Delhi; and Pratham, Mumbai and Delhi.        makers at all levels of government understand and reflect upon the ways
The IUC series sought to contribute to building a strong and inclusive      that our society, culture, and economy are changing every day. The Atlas
knowledge foundation for this transition. The series of events sought       programme will be a platform for collaboration between all
to create a platform for research and dialogue among practitioners,         of the various stakeholders in data production - civil society and citizens
academics, and citizens to identify priorities for policy, research, and    as well as surveyors, academics, and governments - as well as a means
action by all stakeholders in India’s urban transition.                     to disseminate the information that emerges from these exercise
                                                                            to a broad audience.
We hope to extend the discussion beyond that series through wider
publication of the Urban India 2011: Evidence briefing and the evidence
behind it. This brief and intensive underlying analysis pulls together
available evidence from national surveys, the Census of India, remote
sensing data on urban spatial dynamics, as well as published and grey
literature. The picture created is far removed from the lived reality
of urban India, and the aggregate summaries may be at odds with the
varied circumstances that policymakers, entrepreneurs and civil society
face as they seek to intervene in the urban transition. In some cases
these data may systematically misrepresent the context and dynamics
of urban India. However, the analysis captures one of the views available
to today’s policymakers and starts to place diverse individual
experiences in some semblance of a broader context. It provides
a starting point for developing a shared understanding of the underlying
trends behind the everyday and individual observations of how India
and its urban areas are evolving. We hope that it will be challenged,
augmented, and improved.
Urban Dynamics
                                                     Economic Geography
                                                     Migration
TABLE OF CONTENTS




                                                     Urban Poverty and Livelihoods
1.   Urban Dynamics                          3-26
2.   Economic Geography                      27-40
3.   Migration                               41-47
4.   Urban Poverty and Livelihoods           48-56
5.   Social Safety Nets                      57-62




                                                     Social Safety Nets
6.   Urban Infrastructure & Services         63-69
7.   Urban Finance                           70-78




                                                     Urban Infrastructure & Services
Endnotes & Explanations                      79-86
Abbreviations                                87-88




                                                     Urban Finance
                                       [1]
[2]
Longitude "




                                                                                     Urban Dynamics
Latitude "




                           National Capital Region of Delhi: Urban Land Cover 2011



                                        Urban Dynamics
Urban Dynamics


                 Urban Dynamics

                     This section provides an overview of India’s urban dynamics in both                century as we move from a rural-agrarian to an urbanindustrial/
                     spatial and demographic terms. The first set of maps places India’s                services-led economy. The second is the impact of the grey
                     present settlement distribution in historic context and suggests one               zone between Class IV to VI towns (<5,000-20,000) population and the
                     scenario of how this may evolve over the next two decades. India’s                 large fraction of rural population who live in villages that have more
                     impending urbanisation, particularly an acceleration of urbanisation               than 5,000 people and have an increasing urban character. There are
                     in southern and parts of western India, are apparent and formidable.               between 80-140 million people estimated to be living in this zone.
                     The next set of analyses disaggregates this overall pattern to show the
                     broad spatial distribution of cities by size class. Insets on the pages            A shift toward defining these areas as urban would mean a rise in India’s
                     summarize the current distribution of population as well as estimates              level of urbanisation to 40% or above, but a loss of rural entitlements
                     of land covered and economic output across cities of various sizes.                and an increased burden of urban taxation – both of which have major
                     This analysis shows how urban areas account for a disproportionately               policy implications. It is between the medium and small towns and this
                     small amount of India’s terrain when compared with their significant               grey zone of large villages that the success of India’s new manufacturing,
                     and rising share of economic output. According to the Census of India              livelihood and skill building policies will be sorely tested. The next series
                     2011 as well as calculations by the IIHS Geospatial Lab, the top 10 cities         focuses in on the patterns of urbanisation as deduced from changes in
                     of India account for almost 8% of India’s population, produce 15% of               land cover over time. The short summary is that cities are sprawling. As
                     total economic output but only occupy approximately 0.1% of the total              they expand past their formal administrative boundaries, city densities
                     land area. Similarly, the 53 million plus cities are estimated to account          lower over time as population growth rates lag behind the rate of the
                     for 13% of the population produce, about a third of total economic                 growth of built-up areas. The drop in built-up area densities is greater in
                     output and occupy approximately 0.2% of the land. The top 100 cities               the top 100 cities when compared to the top 10 or the million plus cities
                     are estimated to account for 16% of the population, produce 43% of                 but sprawl is happening in large and small cities alike. This is hardly an
                     India’s total output and occupy approximately 0.26% of the land. These             unusual pattern when seen from a global perspective, but it does have
                     estimates are necessarily rough given the absence of reliable                      obvious and possibly unfortunate consequences for urban governance,
                     disaggregated data for urban areas but the emerging economic                       regional planning, and the sustainability of India’s cities. Urbanisation
                     importance of cities as well their increasing demographic presence is              has the potential to be an environmentally sustainable way to work and
                     clear.                                                                             live – life in compact settlements requires less transport, less energy for
                                                                                                        cooling and heating, and directly alters less terrain than more spatially
                     The next set of plates traces the evolution of India’s entire settlement           dispersed living patterns. Increasing sprawl challenges these
                     structure – across villages, small towns and cities showing the changing           possibilities.
                     distribution of India’s population since Independence. The distribution
                     has a high concentration in the million cities and a very long                     While the extent of land under urban cover remains small, the effects of
                     decentralised tail – the 2011 Census estimated 8,000 urban centres,                urban land dynamics may be more significant. For one, location of the
                     situated in a sea of over 6,60,000 villages. The graphs show a decline in          land matters – we may be urbanising in productive and eco-sensitive
                     the number of people and proportion living in hamlets and small                    areas. Second, spatial size matters. Globally, cities typically sprawl and
                     villages, partially because of population growth, but also because of the          disturb land area twice their built up area – this relationship is
                     clustering and agglomeration of settlements as mobility networks                   unstudied for India. Third, low density urban expansion affects energy
                     increased in coverage and settlement sizes grew. The analysis shows that           use for transport, the prospects for and costs of resource-efficient
                     the most significant change is in the proportion of the smallest and the           infrastructure, the extent of disruption to watersheds and albedo, and
                     largest cities.                                                                    other aspects of urbanisation that in turn affects extraction of water,
                                                                                                        energy and material resources from the hinterland for the construction
                     Two striking questions emerge: the distribution of both India’s urban              and operation of these cities
                     and rural population across settlement size class over the next half


                                                                                                  [4]
Urban Dynamics
Urban India: 1951


                                                     In 1951, there were only
                                                     5 Indian cities with a population
                                                     greater than 1 million and only
                                                     41 cities greater than 0.1 million
                                                     population. Much of India
                                                     effectively lived in 0.56 million
                                                     villages.


                                                   300

                                                             Top 100   Top 50   Top 25   Top 20   Top 10
                                                   250




                          Population in millions
                                                   200


                                                   150


                                                   100


                                                   50


                                                    0
                                                     1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031




                                                                                                  Source: IIHS Analysis of Census
                                                                                                  data, 1951. (Satellite Map,
                                                                                                  Google Inc.)


                    [5]
Urban Dynamics


                 Urban India: 2011


                                                                    In 2011, there are 3 cities with
                                                                    population greater than 10 million
                                                                    and 53 cities with population
                                                                    greater than 1 million. Over 833
                                                                    million Indians live in 0.64 million
                                                                    villages but 377 million live in
                                                                    about 8,000 urban centres.


                                                                    300

                                                                                 Top 100      Top 50      Top 25       Top 20     Top 10
                                                                    250




                                           Population in millions
                                                                    200


                                                                    150


                                                                    100


                                                                    50


                                                                     0
                                                                      1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031




                                                                                                                   Source: IIHS Analysis of Census
                                                                                                                   data, 2011. (Satellite Map,
                                                                                                                   Google Inc.)


                                     [6]
Urban Dynamics
Urban India: 2031


                                                   By 2031, it is projected that there
                                                   will be 6 cities with a population
                                                   greater than 10 million. A key
                                                   question is how many Indians
                                                   would live in how many medium
                                                   and small towns - the bridge
                                                   between a transforming rural and
                                                   urban India?

                                                   300

                                                                 Top 100     Top 50     Top 25        Top 20     Top 10
                                                   250




                          Population in millions
                                                   200


                                                   150


                                                   100


                                                    50


                                                     0
                                                      1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031




                                                                                                 Source: IIHS Analysis based
                                                                                                 on Census of India. (Satellite Map,
                                                                                                 Google Inc.)


                    [7]
Urban Dynamics


                 India's Largest Cities: 2011

                    (List in descending order of population of Urban Agglomerations)

                    Top Ten             Million Plus                                           Top Hundred
                    Greater Mumbai      Greater Mumbai           Jamshedpur                    Greater Mumbai         Srinagar                      Cuttack
                    Delhi               Delhi                    Srinagar                      Delhi                  Jabalpur                      Puducherry
                    Kolkata             Kolkata                  Jabalpur                      Kolkata                Asansol                       Jammu
                    Chennai             Chennai                  Asansol                       Chennai                Vasai Virar City (M Corp.)*   Bikaner (M Corp.)*
                    Bangalore           Bangalore                Vasai Virar City (M Corp.)*   Bangalore              Allahabad                     Amravati (M Corp.)*
                    Hyderabad           Hyderabad                Allahabad                     Hyderabad              Dhanbad                       Noida (CT)
                    Ahmedabad           Ahmedabad                Dhanbad                       Ahmedabad              Aurangabad                    Mangalore
                    Pune                Pune                     Aurangabad                    Pune                   Amritsar                      Belgaum
                    Surat               Surat                    Amritsar                      Surat                  Jodhpur                       Bhavnagar
                    Jaipur (M Corp.)*   Jaipur (M Corp.)*        Jodhpur                       Jaipur (M Corp.)*      Ranchi                        Firozabad (NPP)
                                        Kanpur                   Ranchi                        Kanpur                 Raipur                        Jamnagar
                                        Lucknow                  Raipur                        Lucknow                Kollam                        Durgapur
                                        Nagpur                   Kollam                        Nagpur                 Gwalior                       Malegaon
                                        Ghaziabad                Gwalior                       Ghaziabad              Durg-Bhilainagar              Nellore
                                        Indore                   Durg-Bhilainagar              Indore                 Chandigarh                    Bokaro Steel City
                                        Coimbatore               Chandigarh                    Coimbatore             Tiruchirappalli               Kolhapur
                                        Kochi                    Tiruchirappalli               Kochi                  Kota (M Corp.)*               Raurkela
                                        Patna                    Kota (M Corp.)*               Patna                  Mysore                        Ajmer
                                        Kozhikode                                              Kozhikode              Bareilly                      Nanded Waghala (M Corp.)*
                                        Bhopal                                                 Bhopal                 Guwahati                      Jhansi
                                        Thrissur                                               Thrissur               Tiruppur                      Gulbarga
                                        Vadodara                                               Vadodara               Solapur (M Corp.)*            Erode
                                        Agra                                                   Agra                   Hubli-Dharwad *(M Corp.)*     Ujjain (M Corp.)*
                                        GVMC (MC)**                                            GVMC (MC)**            Salem                         Sangali
                                        Malappuram                                             Malappuram             Aligarh                       Tirunelveli
                                        Thiruvananthapuram                                     Thiruvananthapuram     Gurgaon                       Muzaffarnagar
                                        Kannur                                                 Kannur                 Moradabad (M Corp.)*          Vellore
                                        Ludhiana (M Corp.)*                                    Ludhiana (M Corp.)*    Bhubaneswar                   Rajahmundry
                                        Nashik                                                 Nashik                 Jalandhar
                                        Vijayawada                                             Vijayawada             Warangal
                                        Madurai                                                Madurai                Bhiwandi
                                        Varanasi                                               Varanasi               Dehradun
                                        Meerut                                                 Meerut                 Saharanpur (M Corp.)*
                                        Faridabad (M Corp.)*                                   Faridabad (M Corp.)*   Siliguri
                                        Rajkot                                                 Rajkot                 Gorakhpur
                                                                                               Jamshedpur             Guntur

                  **GVMC (MC): Greater Visakhaptnam Municipal Corporation | *(M Corp.): Municipal Corporation.                                       Source: Census 2011


                                                                                                [8]
Urban Dynamics
Ten Largest Cities

                                                The top 10 cities are estimated to
                                                produce about 15% of the GDP, with
                     Ten Largest Cities         8% of the population and just 0.1%
                                                of the land area.


                                                                                                           Land
                                                                                                         Land         0.1%
                                                          Population
                                                            Population                                                       8%

                                                                                              Output
                                                                                               Output                             15%
                                                                                                                  0       10     20      30       40     50
                                                                                                                      Estimated Proportion for all-India




                                                                                                    Average Density in Built-up Area of Top
                                                                                                         Ten Cities, people per sq km
                                                                                                        40




                                                 Estimated number of people per square km


                                                                                            Thousands
                                                                                                        35
                                                                                                        30




                                                              of built-up area
                                                                                                        25
                                                                                                        20
                                                                                                        15
                                                                                                        10
                                                                                                        5
                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                  1990s           2000s          2010s




                                                                                                                              Source: IIHS Analysis 2011(built-up
                                                                                                                              area); Census 2011 (population);
                                                                                                                              Planning Commission 2011
                                                                                                                              (DPP Estimates 2005-06).
                                                                                                                              See endnotes for method
                                                                                                                              of calculating urban output and
                                                                                                                              built-up area.


                                          [9]
Urban Dynamics


                 Cities with Populations over 1 Million

                                                                             The 53 Million-plus cities are
                                                                             estimated to produce about 32% of
                                                Cities with Populations      the GDP, with 13.3% of the
                                                     over 1 Million          population and just 0.2% of the land
                                                                             area.

                                                                                                                                            Land
                                                                                                                                          Land         0.2%
                                                                                              Population
                                                                                                Population                                                       13%

                                                                                                                              Output
                                                                                                                               Output                                           31%
                                                                                                                                                   0       10     20      30       40     50
                                                                                                                                                       Estimated Proportion for all-India




                                                                                                                                      Average Density in Built-up Areas of
                                                                                                                                      Million Plus Cities, people per sq km




                                                                              Estimated number of people per square km
                                                                                                                                     45




                                                                                                                         Thousands
                                                                                                                                     40
                                                                                                                                     35
                                                                                                                                     30




                                                                                           of built -up area
                                                                                                                                     25
                                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                                     15
                                                                                                                                     10
                                                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                               1990s             2000s            2010s




                                                                                                                                                               Source: IIHS Analysis 2011(built-up
                                                                                                                                                               area); Census 2011 (population);
                                                                                                                                                               Planning Commission 2011
                                                                                                                                                               (DPP Estimates 2005-06).
                                                                                                                                                               See endnotes for method
                                                                                                                                                               of calculating urban output and
                                                                                                                                                               built-up area.


                                                                      [10]
Urban Dynamics
Hundred Largest Cities

                                                     The top 100 largest cities are
                                                     estimated to produce about 43% of
                         Hundred Largest Cities      the GDP, with 16% of the population
                                                     and just 0.24% of the land area.


                                                                                                                   Land
                                                                                                                 Land         0.24%
                                                                     Population
                                                                       Population                                                       16%

                                                                                                     Output
                                                                                                      Output                                                 41%

                                                                                                                          0       10     20      30       40     50
                                                                                                                              Estimated Proportion for all-India




                                                                                                        Average Density in Built-up Areas of Top
                                                                                                           Hundred Cities, people per sq km




                                                      Estimated number of people per square km
                                                                                                             45




                                                                                                 Thousands
                                                                                                             40
                                                                                                             35
                                                                                                             30




                                                                   of built -up area
                                                                                                             25
                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                             15
                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                             5
                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                      1990s             2000s            2010s




                                                                                                                                      Source: IIHS Analysis 2011(built-up
                                                                                                                                      area); Census 2011 (population);
                                                                                                                                      Planning Commission 2011
                                                                                                                                      (DPP Estimates 2005-06).
                                                                                                                                      See endnotes for method
                                                                                                                                      of calculating urban output and
                                                                                                                                      built-up area.


                                              [11]
Urban Dynamics


                 Distribution of India’s Population by Settlement Size (Urban & Rural): 1951-2011*

                                                                Depending on the definition of urban, more settlements shift from the rural into the urban category.
                                                                                                                                                    Est. 2011
                                                              100%                                                                                    Pop.
                                                                         3%       1%             3%     4%        3%
                                                                                  3%                                        4%              4%                                               Megacities (> 10 m)
                                                                         1%                      3%               2%                                                                         Large Metropolitan Cities (5-10 m)
                                                                                  2%                    3%                  2%              3%
                                                                                                 4%               4%




                                                                                                                                                                Class I
                                                                         7%                                                 5%




                                                                                                                                                                Cities
                                                              90%                                       6%                                  6%
                                                                                  8%
                                                                                                                  7%
                                                                                                                                                     265 m                                   Million + Cities (1 - 5 m)
                                                                         3%                      8%
                                                                                  1%                                        8%
                                                                         5%                             8%
                                                                                                 1%                                         9%                                               Other Class I Cities (0.1 to 1 m)




                                                                                                                                                                Other Urban Large
                                                              80%                 8%                    1%        8%




                                                                                                                                                                  Centres
                                                                                                10%                         8%                                                               Class II (50-1,00,000) , Class III (20-50,000), Class
                     Proportion of All India Population (%)




                                                                                                                  1%                                                                         IV (10-20,000)
                                                                        17%                            12%                  1%              9%       112 m
                                                              70%                                                                           1%                                               Class V & VI (<5-10,000)
                                                                                  18%                             14%
                                                                                                                            16%
                                                                                                20%




                                                                                                                                                                            Villages
                                                              60%                                                                           17%                                              Very Large Villages (>10,000) , Large Villages
                                                                                                       21%
                                                                                                                                                     200 m                                   (>5,000)
                                                                        20%
                                                              50%                                                 22%
                                                                                  21%
                                                                                                                            23%                                                              Medium Sized Villages (2-5,000)
                                                                                                21%
                                                              40%                                                                           24%

                                                                                                       20%




                                                                                                                                                                small villages
                                                                                                                                                                Medium and
                                                                        21%
                                                              30%                                                 19%
                                                                                  19%                                                                 537 m
                                                                                                                            18%
                                                                                                18%
                                                              20%                                                                           17%                                              Small Villages (1-2,000)
                                                                                                       15%
                                                                                                                  12%
                                                                        22%                                                 10%
                                                              10%
                                                                                  17%                                                                                                        Hamlets (500-1,000)
                                                                                                13%                                         8%
                                                                                                       10%
                                                                                                                  7%        5%                                                               Small Hamlets (<500)
                                                                                                                                            3%
                                                               0%
                                                                       1951      1961           1971   1981     1991       2001            2011                                    Definition of Urban (Census 2011): All statutory
                                                                                                                                       (estimate)                                  places with a municipality, corporation, cantonment
                                                                                                                                                                                   board or notified town area committee. A place satisfying
                                                                     All India: Number of Settlements (1971-2011)                                                                  the following three criteria simultaneously: a minimum
                                                                                                                 1991      2001            2011                                    population of 5,000; at least 75 per cent of male working
                                                                                                                                                                                   population engaged in non-agricultural pursuits; and
                                                                                        Urban                    3,351      5,161          7,935                                   a density of population of at least 400 per sq. km.
                                                                                        Rural                 6,34,321   6,38,588 6,40,867                                         Source: Census, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                  *The break-up of smaller cities                 Source: IIHS Analysis based
                                                                                                                                                                                  + for 2011 is an estimate                       on Census 1951 to 2011


                                                                                                                                    [12]
Urban Dynamics
Largest 20 Urban Agglomerations by Population: 2011

                                       The rapid growth of the largest metropolitan cities in the 20th century,
                                      is now beginning to slow down, whereas the smaller cities are expanding.
                                 20



                                 18                                                                                         Greater Mumbai UA
                                                                                                                            Delhi UA

                                 16                                                                                         Kolkata UA
                                                                                                                            Chennai UA
                                                                                                                            Bangalore UA
                                 14
                                                                                                                            Hyderabad UA
                                                                                                                            Ahmedabad UA
        Population in millions




                                 12                                                                                         Pune UA
                                                                                                                            Surat UA

                                 10                                                                                         Jaipur (M Corp.)
                                                                                                                            Kanpur UA
                                                                                                                            Lucknow UA
                                  8
                                                                                                                            Nagpur UA
                                                                                                                            Ghaziabad UA
                                  6                                                                                         Indore UA
                                                                                                                            Coimbatore UA
                                  4                                                                                         Kochi UA
                                                                                                                            Patna UA
                                                                                                                            Kozhikode UA
                                  2
                                                                                                                            Bhopal UA


                                  0
                                        1901   1911   1921   1931   1941   1951   1961   1971   1981   1991   2001   2011

                                                                                                                                         Source: IIHS Analysis based on
                                                                                                                                                 Census of India, 2011


                                                                                         [13]
Urban Dynamics
Population and Built up Area: Inside and Outside India’s 10 Largest Cities

                                                                                                                         1990                                                                                                                                                                                2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               250




                                                                                                                                                                                    Population and builtarea outside the urban local body as a proportion of
                                                                            250
 Population and builtarea outside the urban local body as a proportion of




                                                                                                                                                                                            population or built area inside the urban local body
         population or built area inside the urban local body




                                                                            200                                                                                                                                                                                200




                                                                            150                                                                                                                                                                                150




                                                                            100                                                                                                                                                                                100




                                                                                                                                                                                                           -up
                        -up




                                                                                                                                                                                                    -up
                 -up




                                                                            50                                                                                                                                                                                 50




                                                                             0                                                                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                  Greater   Delhi   Kolkata    Chennai   Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad   Pune   Surat   Jaipur                                                                                       Greater   Delhi     Kolkata   Chennai   Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad   Pune   Surat   Jaipur
                                                                                  Mumbai                                                                                                                                                                             Mumbai

                                                                                                              Population       Built -up area                                                                                                                                          Population       Built -up area


                                                                                                                         2010                                                       India’s largest cities have a significant portion of both
                                                                            250
 Population and builtarea outside the urban local body as a proportion of




                                                                                                                                                                                    population and built-up areas outside ULB boundaries. In
                                                                                                                                                                                    most cases, the proportion of built- up area outside ULB
              population or built area inside the urban local body




                                                                            200                                                                                                     boundaries is greater than the proportion of population
                                                                                                                                                                                    outside the administrative boundaries, implying relatively
                                                                                                                                                                                    low-density sprawl. Comparison over time (highlighted in
                                                                            150
                                                                                                                                                                                    the next page) shows that this spatial expansion has
                                                                                                                                                                                    accelerated between 2000 and 2010.
                               up




                                                                            100
                        -
                 -up




                                                                            50




                                                                             0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: H.S. Sudhira (2011)
                                                                                  Greater   Delhi   Kolkata    Chennai   Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad   Pune   Surat   Jaipur                                                                                                                                                         and IIHS Analysis
                                                                                  Mumbai                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               See endnote for explanation
                                                                                                         Population         Built -up area                                                                                                                                                                                             on methodology for calculating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       built-up area


                                                                                                                                                                                 [15]
Urban Dynamics


                 Urban Growth: Population vs. Built up Areas



                               Percentage Change in Population and Built-up Area                                                                                     Percentage Change in Population and Built-up Area
                               for 10 Largest Cities, 1990-2000                                                                                                      for 10 Largest Cities, 2000-2010
                               100%                                                                                                                                   100%


                               90%                                                                                                                                     90%


                               80%                                                                                                                                     80%


                               70%                                                                                                                                     70%




                                                                                                                                                        Change (%)
                                                                                                                                                                       60%
                  Change (%)




                               60%


                               50%                                                                                                                                     50%


                               40%                                                                                                                                     40%


                               30%                                                                                                                                     30%


                               20%                                                                                                                                     20%


                               10%                                                                                                                                     10%


                                0%                                                                                                                                      0%
                                      Greater    Delhi   Kolkata   Chennai   Bangalore   Hyderabad Ahmedabad   Pune   Surat       Jaipur                                      Greater       Delhi     Kolkata   Chennai   Bangalore   Hyderabad Ahmedabad   Pune   Surat   Jaipur
                                      Mumbai                                                                                                                                  Mumbai

                                                                                                                      Percentage Change in Population                Percentage Change in Built- up Area




                                                Built-up area has been growing faster than population in nearly all of India’s largest cities for the past two decades.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: H.S. Sudhira (2011)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and IIHS Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                See endnote for explanation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                on methodology for calculating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                built-up area


                                                                                                                                            [14]
Urban Dynamics


                 Urban Growth: Density


                                                                         Built-up Densities inside Administrative Boundary                                                                                                            Built-up Densities outside Administrative Boundary
                                                         100                                                                                                    1990                                                  100                                                                                                    1990
                        Thousands




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Thousands
                                                         90                                                                                                     2000                                                  90                                                                                                     2000

                                                         80                                                                                                     2010                                                  80                                                                                                     2010




                                                                                                                                                                         Persons per sq. km of Built -up area
                  Persons per sq. km of built -up area




                                                         70                                                                                                                                                           70


                                                         60                                                                                                                                                           60


                                                         50                                                                                                                                                           50


                                                         40                                                                                                                                                           40


                                                         30                                                                                                                                                           30


                                                         20                                                                                                                                                           20


                                                         10                                                                                                                                                           10


                                                          0                                                                                                                                                            0
                                                               Greater   Delhi    Kolkata   Chennai   Bangalore   Hyderabad Ahmedabad   Pune   Surat   Jaipur                                                               Greater    Delhi   Kolkata   Chennai   Bangalore   Hyderabad Ahmedabad   Pune   Surat   Jaipur
                                                               Mumbai                                                                                                                                                       Mumbai




                                                                                 Built-up density, estimated as population over built-up area, is decreasing for most of the core areas of the
                                                                                    ten largest cities. The evolution of density outside the urban local body boundaries varies more, but
                                                                                                                    density is lower than in the city cores.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: H.S. Sudhira (2011)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and IIHS Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                See endnote for explanation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                on methodology for calculating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                built-up area


                                                                                                                                                                       [16]
Urban Dynamics
Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Mumbai & Delhi


    Mumbai
    12.6 million   1992     16.4 million   2001      18.4 million   2011




    Delhi
    8.7 million    1992     13.7 million   2000      16.3 million   2011




                                                                                   Built-up
                                                                                   Vegetation
                                                                                   Water bodies
                                                                                   Others




                                                                           Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011).
                                                                           Urban Land Cover and Land Cover
                                                                           Change Dataset of Indian Cities.
                                                                           IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo.


                                              [17]
Urban Dynamics


                 Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Kolkata & Chennai


                     Kolkata
                     10.3 million   1990     13.2 million   2001      14.1 million   2010




                     Chennai
                     5.2 million    1991     6.6 million    2000      8.7 million    2009




                                                                                                    Built-up
                                                                                                    Vegetation
                                                                                                    Water bodies
                                                                                                    Others




                                                                                            Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011).
                                                                                            Urban Land Cover and Land Cover
                                                                                            Change Dataset of Indian Cities.
                                                                                            IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo.


                                                               [18]
Urban Dynamics
Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Bangalore & Hyderabad


    Bangalore
     3.4 million     1992   5.7 million   2001   8.5 million    2009




    Hyderabad
     4.3 million     1989   5.7 million   2001   7.7 million    2009




                                                                               Built-up
                                                                               Vegetation
                                                                               Water bodies
                                                                               Others




                                                                       Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011).
                                                                       Urban Land Cover and Land Cover
                                                                       Change Dataset of Indian Cities.
                                                                       IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo.


                                          [19]
Urban Dynamics


                 Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Ahmedabad & Pune


                     Ahmedabad
                     3.3 million      1992   4.5 million   2001   6.4 million   2011




                     Pune
                     2.3 million      1992   3.8 million   2001   5.0 million   2011




                                                                                               Built-up
                                                                                               Vegetation
                                                                                               Water bodies
                                                                                               Others




                                                                                       Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011).
                                                                                       Urban Land Cover and Land Cover
                                                                                       Change Dataset of Indian Cities.
                                                                                       IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo.


                                                           [20]
Urban Dynamics
Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Surat & Jaipur


    Surat
    1.5 million    1990     2.8 million    2001    4.6 million   2011




    Jaipur
    1.5 million    1989     2.3 million   2000     3.1 million   2011




                                                                                Built-up
                                                                                Vegetation
                                                                                Water bodies
                                                                                Others




                                                                        Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011).
                                                                        Urban Land Cover and Land Cover
                                                                        Change Dataset of Indian Cities.
                                                                        IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo.


                                            [21]
Urban Dynamics


                 Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Agra & Chandigharh


                     Agra
                     0.9 million      1989   1.3 million    2000   1.7 million    2011




                     Chandigharh
                     0.6 million      1989   0.8 million    2000   1 million      2011




                                                                                                 Built-up
                                                                                                 Vegetation
                                                                                                 Water bodies
                                                                                                 Others




                                                                                         Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011).
                                                                                         Urban Land Cover and Land Cover
                                                                                         Change Dataset of Indian Cities.
                                                                                         IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo.


                                                           [22]
Urban Dynamics
Spatial Variation in District-wise Distribution of Sectoral Output: 2005-06



                                                  100%
                                                                                                                             All the districts of India are arranged in ascending
                                                                                                           Agriculture       order of level of urbanisation, and the lines
                                                       90%                                                                   represent the cumulative distribution of sectoral
     Cumulative Percentage of Total All-India Output




                                                                                                           Forestry and
                                                                                                                             output. As expected, we see that some economic
                                                       80%                                                 Logging           activity like banking, insurance and real estate is
                                                                                                                             more concentrated in urban areas, whereas
                                                       70%                                                 Mining and
                                                                                                           Quarrying         forestry, logging, agriculture, mining and
                                                                                                                             quarrying are less concentrated in urban areas.
                                                       60%
                                                                                                           Manufacturing

                                                       50%
                                                                                                           Trade, Hotels
                                                                                                           and Restaurants
                                                       40%

                                                                                                           Banking and
                                                       30%                                                 Insurance

                                                       20%                                                 Real Estate
                                                                                                                                       Sectoral Composition of All India GDP, 2005-06
                                                       10%                                                                                    Public
                                                                                                           Total DDP
                                                                                                                                              Admn
                                                                                                                                               5%              Other
                                                        0%
                                                                                                                                                              Services
                                                             Districts, ordered by Level of Urbanisation                                                        9%       Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                            19%                   Forestry 1%
                                                                                                                                                Real Estate                                         Fishing 1%
                                                                                                                                                   9%
                                                                                                                                                Banking                                            Mining 2%
                                                                                                                                                  6%
                                                                                                                                                                            Manufacturing
    This chart shows the sectoral composition of the economy. Shades of green                                                 Communication                                     14%
    represent the primary sector, shades of blue represent the secondary sector                                                   3%
    and shades of pink and purple represent the tertiary sector.                                                              Other Transport 4%               Trade
                                                                                                                                       Railways 1%              15%                            Electricity
                                                                                                                                                                                                  2%
                                                                                                                                                                                       Construction
                                                                                                                                                                                          8%



                                                                                                                                                                                 Source : District-level data
                                                                                                                                                                                 on economic output from the
                                                                                                                                                                                 Planning Commission


                                                                                                           [23]
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India Urban conference book

  • 1. Urban India 2011: Evidence
  • 2. Original publication: November 22, 2011. Second Edition: December 22, 2011. Third Edition: January 21, 2012
  • 3. Urban India 2011: Evidence
  • 4. URBAN INDIA 2011: EVIDENCE We would like to thank the several contributing authors in particular: Professor Martha Chen of Harvard University and Dr. Govindan Raveendran for generously sharing their analysis of 1999-2009 NSS data on urban employment; Somik Lall and the World Bank team working on the India Urbanisation Review for sharing their results on India’s economic geography and in particular the distribution of employment. Dr. Jyotsna Jha and Madhusudan B.V. of the Centre for Budgetary and Policy Studies, Bangalore provided intriguing data on Municipal Finance. IUC AUTHOR AND PRODUCTION TEAM PHOTO CREDITS: Aromar Revi, IIHS Cover Image - Red Fort : F.S. Shazuddin Charis Idicheria, IIHS Urban Dynamics: IIHS Geospatial Lab Garima Jain, IIHS Economic Geography - Gurgaoun High Rises: F.S. Shazuddin Geetika Anand, IIHS Migration - Old Delhi Railway Station: Kavita Wankhade, IIHS Dr. H.S. Sudhira, IIHS Urban Poverty & Livelihoods - Okhla: Garima Jain, IIHS Dr. Jessica Seddon, IIHS Social Safety Nets - Abul Fazal Enclave: Garima Jain, IIHS Kavita Wankhade, IIHS Urban Infrastructure - Metro Gurgaon: F.S. Shazuddin M.K. Rashmi, IIHS Urban Finance - Public Investments: Himanshu Dhandha, IIHS Priyadarshini Shetty, IIHS Revati Dhoble, CDF, IFMR Shashikala Gowda, IIHS Shriya Anand, IIHS Sujatha Srinivasan, CDF, IFMR COPYRIGHT AND USE All the content created by the author(s) for the purpose of the IUC is copyrighted. For permission to reproduce copyrighted materials, contact the author(s) of the copyright, noted as the "Source" on each page. You are free to share, to copy, distribute and transmit the work under the following conditions: Attribution -You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you / or your use of the work). Non-commercial -You shall not use this work for commercial purposes. With the understanding that: Public Domain -Where the work or any of its elements is in the public domain under applicable law, that status is in no way affected by the license. Other Rights-In no way are any of the following rights affected by the license: • Your fair dealing or fair use rights, or other applicable copyright exceptions and limitations; • The author's moral rights; • Rights other persons may have either in the work itself or in how the work is used, such as publicity or privacy rights. • Trademarks: The logos and names of sponsors and organizers on the IUC briefing are trademarks of these organisations. Use, reproduction, copying or redistribution of trademarks, without the written permission of the logo/name's respective owner is prohibited. The IIHS graphics in the IUC content are also considered trademarks of IIHS. This report is produced by Autumn Worldwide | www.autumnworldwide.com
  • 5. Urban India 2011: Evidence India’s urban transition, a once in history phenomenon, has the as convenient linkages between economic hubs? Will cities grow as potential to shift the country’s social, environmental, political, and compact, efficient densely populated areas or continue to spread out economic trajectory. It could catalyse the end of calorie poverty over larger and larger territories? Will more people connect to the if post-1989 China is any example. It could deepen democracy and electricity grid or will diesel generators continue to power the emerging human development, enabling more Indians to live better quality, suburbs – this is an important question for emissions and energy healthier, and better-educated lives. It could enable the country's security, above and beyond the more prominent discussion about the transition to a less resource- Intensive development, with lower move from coal to renewable energy. throughputs, footprints and environmental impacts that could reshape Third, urbanisation will, for better or for worse, play an enormous role global trends because of India’s demographic and economic size. in social transformation and economic mobility. It may exacerbate But these are only aspirations. Hard evidence indicates that much work inequalities, create new opportunities, or both. Cities could be engines needs to be done to realise these opportunities over the next twenty of poverty reduction, both within their boundaries and through the to thirty years. financial, people, and goods flow between urban and rural India. They India’s urbanisation will interact with the country’s ongoing could also replicate existing social stratification and exacerbate the demographic evolution to shape the extent of the “demographic misery of poverty by concentrating the poor in smaller, more polluted, dividend” as a young labour force moves into more or less productive more market-dependent, less safe areas. employment with unknown opportunities for economic and social In short, urbanisation is a transition to be reckoned with. mobility. The process will help redefine India’s imagination as a country that lives primarily in its villages with limited movement across IIHS originally produced this book for the India Urban Conference: geographies. We will need to understand and deepen the linkages that Evidence and Experience (IUC 2011), a series of events designed to raise enable small urban centres to become catalysts for rural non-farm the salience of urban challenges and opportunities in the ongoing debate employment, sites of opportunities, and a foundation for eliminating on India’s development. The series, comprising an academic conference rural poverty and exclusion. in New Haven, CT, USA, an ideas-forum and discussion of emerging evidence and research in Mysore, a policy conference in Delhi, and The spatial patterns of urbanisation will also affect the possibilities a national student challenge seeking innovative proposals for urban for the country to pioneer new, less resource-intensive forms solutions, was convened by the Indian Institute for Human Settlements of development. India has lower measured emissions per unit of output (IIHS), Janaagraha Centre for Citizenship and Democracy (JCCD), and than many other countries at the moment, but the emerging economic the South Asian Studies Council at Yale University, in collaboration with geography will determine whether this pattern can be sustained as the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation and the Ministry growth continues and consumption increases. Will road transport of Urban Development of the Government of India. The events also continue to dominate shipping or will rail and inland waterways emerge
  • 6. relied on the expertise and networks of Context Anchors including The Urban India 2011: Evidence also marks the initiation of a series Arghyam, Bangalore; DRONAH (Development and Research of thematic Urban Atlases in collaboration with leading scholars and Organisation for Nature Art and Heritage), Gurgaon; IFMR Finance practitioners. The Indian Institute for Human Settlements is firmly Foundation, Chennai; PHFI (Public Health Foundation of India), Delhi; committed to furthering “basic research” - to borrow an academic term India Urban Space Foundation (IUSF), Bangalore; SPA (School from the natural sciences - that helps civil society, academics, and policy of Planning and Architecture), Delhi; and Pratham, Mumbai and Delhi. makers at all levels of government understand and reflect upon the ways The IUC series sought to contribute to building a strong and inclusive that our society, culture, and economy are changing every day. The Atlas knowledge foundation for this transition. The series of events sought programme will be a platform for collaboration between all to create a platform for research and dialogue among practitioners, of the various stakeholders in data production - civil society and citizens academics, and citizens to identify priorities for policy, research, and as well as surveyors, academics, and governments - as well as a means action by all stakeholders in India’s urban transition. to disseminate the information that emerges from these exercise to a broad audience. We hope to extend the discussion beyond that series through wider publication of the Urban India 2011: Evidence briefing and the evidence behind it. This brief and intensive underlying analysis pulls together available evidence from national surveys, the Census of India, remote sensing data on urban spatial dynamics, as well as published and grey literature. The picture created is far removed from the lived reality of urban India, and the aggregate summaries may be at odds with the varied circumstances that policymakers, entrepreneurs and civil society face as they seek to intervene in the urban transition. In some cases these data may systematically misrepresent the context and dynamics of urban India. However, the analysis captures one of the views available to today’s policymakers and starts to place diverse individual experiences in some semblance of a broader context. It provides a starting point for developing a shared understanding of the underlying trends behind the everyday and individual observations of how India and its urban areas are evolving. We hope that it will be challenged, augmented, and improved.
  • 7. Urban Dynamics Economic Geography Migration TABLE OF CONTENTS Urban Poverty and Livelihoods 1. Urban Dynamics 3-26 2. Economic Geography 27-40 3. Migration 41-47 4. Urban Poverty and Livelihoods 48-56 5. Social Safety Nets 57-62 Social Safety Nets 6. Urban Infrastructure & Services 63-69 7. Urban Finance 70-78 Urban Infrastructure & Services Endnotes & Explanations 79-86 Abbreviations 87-88 Urban Finance [1]
  • 8. [2]
  • 9. Longitude " Urban Dynamics Latitude " National Capital Region of Delhi: Urban Land Cover 2011 Urban Dynamics
  • 10. Urban Dynamics Urban Dynamics This section provides an overview of India’s urban dynamics in both century as we move from a rural-agrarian to an urbanindustrial/ spatial and demographic terms. The first set of maps places India’s services-led economy. The second is the impact of the grey present settlement distribution in historic context and suggests one zone between Class IV to VI towns (<5,000-20,000) population and the scenario of how this may evolve over the next two decades. India’s large fraction of rural population who live in villages that have more impending urbanisation, particularly an acceleration of urbanisation than 5,000 people and have an increasing urban character. There are in southern and parts of western India, are apparent and formidable. between 80-140 million people estimated to be living in this zone. The next set of analyses disaggregates this overall pattern to show the broad spatial distribution of cities by size class. Insets on the pages A shift toward defining these areas as urban would mean a rise in India’s summarize the current distribution of population as well as estimates level of urbanisation to 40% or above, but a loss of rural entitlements of land covered and economic output across cities of various sizes. and an increased burden of urban taxation – both of which have major This analysis shows how urban areas account for a disproportionately policy implications. It is between the medium and small towns and this small amount of India’s terrain when compared with their significant grey zone of large villages that the success of India’s new manufacturing, and rising share of economic output. According to the Census of India livelihood and skill building policies will be sorely tested. The next series 2011 as well as calculations by the IIHS Geospatial Lab, the top 10 cities focuses in on the patterns of urbanisation as deduced from changes in of India account for almost 8% of India’s population, produce 15% of land cover over time. The short summary is that cities are sprawling. As total economic output but only occupy approximately 0.1% of the total they expand past their formal administrative boundaries, city densities land area. Similarly, the 53 million plus cities are estimated to account lower over time as population growth rates lag behind the rate of the for 13% of the population produce, about a third of total economic growth of built-up areas. The drop in built-up area densities is greater in output and occupy approximately 0.2% of the land. The top 100 cities the top 100 cities when compared to the top 10 or the million plus cities are estimated to account for 16% of the population, produce 43% of but sprawl is happening in large and small cities alike. This is hardly an India’s total output and occupy approximately 0.26% of the land. These unusual pattern when seen from a global perspective, but it does have estimates are necessarily rough given the absence of reliable obvious and possibly unfortunate consequences for urban governance, disaggregated data for urban areas but the emerging economic regional planning, and the sustainability of India’s cities. Urbanisation importance of cities as well their increasing demographic presence is has the potential to be an environmentally sustainable way to work and clear. live – life in compact settlements requires less transport, less energy for cooling and heating, and directly alters less terrain than more spatially The next set of plates traces the evolution of India’s entire settlement dispersed living patterns. Increasing sprawl challenges these structure – across villages, small towns and cities showing the changing possibilities. distribution of India’s population since Independence. The distribution has a high concentration in the million cities and a very long While the extent of land under urban cover remains small, the effects of decentralised tail – the 2011 Census estimated 8,000 urban centres, urban land dynamics may be more significant. For one, location of the situated in a sea of over 6,60,000 villages. The graphs show a decline in land matters – we may be urbanising in productive and eco-sensitive the number of people and proportion living in hamlets and small areas. Second, spatial size matters. Globally, cities typically sprawl and villages, partially because of population growth, but also because of the disturb land area twice their built up area – this relationship is clustering and agglomeration of settlements as mobility networks unstudied for India. Third, low density urban expansion affects energy increased in coverage and settlement sizes grew. The analysis shows that use for transport, the prospects for and costs of resource-efficient the most significant change is in the proportion of the smallest and the infrastructure, the extent of disruption to watersheds and albedo, and largest cities. other aspects of urbanisation that in turn affects extraction of water, energy and material resources from the hinterland for the construction Two striking questions emerge: the distribution of both India’s urban and operation of these cities and rural population across settlement size class over the next half [4]
  • 11. Urban Dynamics Urban India: 1951 In 1951, there were only 5 Indian cities with a population greater than 1 million and only 41 cities greater than 0.1 million population. Much of India effectively lived in 0.56 million villages. 300 Top 100 Top 50 Top 25 Top 20 Top 10 250 Population in millions 200 150 100 50 0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Source: IIHS Analysis of Census data, 1951. (Satellite Map, Google Inc.) [5]
  • 12. Urban Dynamics Urban India: 2011 In 2011, there are 3 cities with population greater than 10 million and 53 cities with population greater than 1 million. Over 833 million Indians live in 0.64 million villages but 377 million live in about 8,000 urban centres. 300 Top 100 Top 50 Top 25 Top 20 Top 10 250 Population in millions 200 150 100 50 0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Source: IIHS Analysis of Census data, 2011. (Satellite Map, Google Inc.) [6]
  • 13. Urban Dynamics Urban India: 2031 By 2031, it is projected that there will be 6 cities with a population greater than 10 million. A key question is how many Indians would live in how many medium and small towns - the bridge between a transforming rural and urban India? 300 Top 100 Top 50 Top 25 Top 20 Top 10 250 Population in millions 200 150 100 50 0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Source: IIHS Analysis based on Census of India. (Satellite Map, Google Inc.) [7]
  • 14. Urban Dynamics India's Largest Cities: 2011 (List in descending order of population of Urban Agglomerations) Top Ten Million Plus Top Hundred Greater Mumbai Greater Mumbai Jamshedpur Greater Mumbai Srinagar Cuttack Delhi Delhi Srinagar Delhi Jabalpur Puducherry Kolkata Kolkata Jabalpur Kolkata Asansol Jammu Chennai Chennai Asansol Chennai Vasai Virar City (M Corp.)* Bikaner (M Corp.)* Bangalore Bangalore Vasai Virar City (M Corp.)* Bangalore Allahabad Amravati (M Corp.)* Hyderabad Hyderabad Allahabad Hyderabad Dhanbad Noida (CT) Ahmedabad Ahmedabad Dhanbad Ahmedabad Aurangabad Mangalore Pune Pune Aurangabad Pune Amritsar Belgaum Surat Surat Amritsar Surat Jodhpur Bhavnagar Jaipur (M Corp.)* Jaipur (M Corp.)* Jodhpur Jaipur (M Corp.)* Ranchi Firozabad (NPP) Kanpur Ranchi Kanpur Raipur Jamnagar Lucknow Raipur Lucknow Kollam Durgapur Nagpur Kollam Nagpur Gwalior Malegaon Ghaziabad Gwalior Ghaziabad Durg-Bhilainagar Nellore Indore Durg-Bhilainagar Indore Chandigarh Bokaro Steel City Coimbatore Chandigarh Coimbatore Tiruchirappalli Kolhapur Kochi Tiruchirappalli Kochi Kota (M Corp.)* Raurkela Patna Kota (M Corp.)* Patna Mysore Ajmer Kozhikode Kozhikode Bareilly Nanded Waghala (M Corp.)* Bhopal Bhopal Guwahati Jhansi Thrissur Thrissur Tiruppur Gulbarga Vadodara Vadodara Solapur (M Corp.)* Erode Agra Agra Hubli-Dharwad *(M Corp.)* Ujjain (M Corp.)* GVMC (MC)** GVMC (MC)** Salem Sangali Malappuram Malappuram Aligarh Tirunelveli Thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram Gurgaon Muzaffarnagar Kannur Kannur Moradabad (M Corp.)* Vellore Ludhiana (M Corp.)* Ludhiana (M Corp.)* Bhubaneswar Rajahmundry Nashik Nashik Jalandhar Vijayawada Vijayawada Warangal Madurai Madurai Bhiwandi Varanasi Varanasi Dehradun Meerut Meerut Saharanpur (M Corp.)* Faridabad (M Corp.)* Faridabad (M Corp.)* Siliguri Rajkot Rajkot Gorakhpur Jamshedpur Guntur **GVMC (MC): Greater Visakhaptnam Municipal Corporation | *(M Corp.): Municipal Corporation. Source: Census 2011 [8]
  • 15. Urban Dynamics Ten Largest Cities The top 10 cities are estimated to produce about 15% of the GDP, with Ten Largest Cities 8% of the population and just 0.1% of the land area. Land Land 0.1% Population Population 8% Output Output 15% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated Proportion for all-India Average Density in Built-up Area of Top Ten Cities, people per sq km 40 Estimated number of people per square km Thousands 35 30 of built-up area 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: IIHS Analysis 2011(built-up area); Census 2011 (population); Planning Commission 2011 (DPP Estimates 2005-06). See endnotes for method of calculating urban output and built-up area. [9]
  • 16. Urban Dynamics Cities with Populations over 1 Million The 53 Million-plus cities are estimated to produce about 32% of Cities with Populations the GDP, with 13.3% of the over 1 Million population and just 0.2% of the land area. Land Land 0.2% Population Population 13% Output Output 31% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated Proportion for all-India Average Density in Built-up Areas of Million Plus Cities, people per sq km Estimated number of people per square km 45 Thousands 40 35 30 of built -up area 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: IIHS Analysis 2011(built-up area); Census 2011 (population); Planning Commission 2011 (DPP Estimates 2005-06). See endnotes for method of calculating urban output and built-up area. [10]
  • 17. Urban Dynamics Hundred Largest Cities The top 100 largest cities are estimated to produce about 43% of Hundred Largest Cities the GDP, with 16% of the population and just 0.24% of the land area. Land Land 0.24% Population Population 16% Output Output 41% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Estimated Proportion for all-India Average Density in Built-up Areas of Top Hundred Cities, people per sq km Estimated number of people per square km 45 Thousands 40 35 30 of built -up area 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990s 2000s 2010s Source: IIHS Analysis 2011(built-up area); Census 2011 (population); Planning Commission 2011 (DPP Estimates 2005-06). See endnotes for method of calculating urban output and built-up area. [11]
  • 18. Urban Dynamics Distribution of India’s Population by Settlement Size (Urban & Rural): 1951-2011* Depending on the definition of urban, more settlements shift from the rural into the urban category. Est. 2011 100% Pop. 3% 1% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% Megacities (> 10 m) 1% 3% 2% Large Metropolitan Cities (5-10 m) 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4% Class I 7% 5% Cities 90% 6% 6% 8% 7% 265 m Million + Cities (1 - 5 m) 3% 8% 1% 8% 5% 8% 1% 9% Other Class I Cities (0.1 to 1 m) Other Urban Large 80% 8% 1% 8% Centres 10% 8% Class II (50-1,00,000) , Class III (20-50,000), Class Proportion of All India Population (%) 1% IV (10-20,000) 17% 12% 1% 9% 112 m 70% 1% Class V & VI (<5-10,000) 18% 14% 16% 20% Villages 60% 17% Very Large Villages (>10,000) , Large Villages 21% 200 m (>5,000) 20% 50% 22% 21% 23% Medium Sized Villages (2-5,000) 21% 40% 24% 20% small villages Medium and 21% 30% 19% 19% 537 m 18% 18% 20% 17% Small Villages (1-2,000) 15% 12% 22% 10% 10% 17% Hamlets (500-1,000) 13% 8% 10% 7% 5% Small Hamlets (<500) 3% 0% 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Definition of Urban (Census 2011): All statutory (estimate) places with a municipality, corporation, cantonment board or notified town area committee. A place satisfying All India: Number of Settlements (1971-2011) the following three criteria simultaneously: a minimum 1991 2001 2011 population of 5,000; at least 75 per cent of male working population engaged in non-agricultural pursuits; and Urban 3,351 5,161 7,935 a density of population of at least 400 per sq. km. Rural 6,34,321 6,38,588 6,40,867 Source: Census, 2011 *The break-up of smaller cities Source: IIHS Analysis based + for 2011 is an estimate on Census 1951 to 2011 [12]
  • 19. Urban Dynamics Largest 20 Urban Agglomerations by Population: 2011 The rapid growth of the largest metropolitan cities in the 20th century, is now beginning to slow down, whereas the smaller cities are expanding. 20 18 Greater Mumbai UA Delhi UA 16 Kolkata UA Chennai UA Bangalore UA 14 Hyderabad UA Ahmedabad UA Population in millions 12 Pune UA Surat UA 10 Jaipur (M Corp.) Kanpur UA Lucknow UA 8 Nagpur UA Ghaziabad UA 6 Indore UA Coimbatore UA 4 Kochi UA Patna UA Kozhikode UA 2 Bhopal UA 0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Source: IIHS Analysis based on Census of India, 2011 [13]
  • 20. Urban Dynamics Population and Built up Area: Inside and Outside India’s 10 Largest Cities 1990 2000 250 Population and builtarea outside the urban local body as a proportion of 250 Population and builtarea outside the urban local body as a proportion of population or built area inside the urban local body population or built area inside the urban local body 200 200 150 150 100 100 -up -up -up -up 50 50 0 0 Greater Delhi Kolkata Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Surat Jaipur Greater Delhi Kolkata Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Surat Jaipur Mumbai Mumbai Population Built -up area Population Built -up area 2010 India’s largest cities have a significant portion of both 250 Population and builtarea outside the urban local body as a proportion of population and built-up areas outside ULB boundaries. In most cases, the proportion of built- up area outside ULB population or built area inside the urban local body 200 boundaries is greater than the proportion of population outside the administrative boundaries, implying relatively low-density sprawl. Comparison over time (highlighted in 150 the next page) shows that this spatial expansion has accelerated between 2000 and 2010. up 100 - -up 50 0 Source: H.S. Sudhira (2011) Greater Delhi Kolkata Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Surat Jaipur and IIHS Analysis Mumbai See endnote for explanation Population Built -up area on methodology for calculating built-up area [15]
  • 21. Urban Dynamics Urban Growth: Population vs. Built up Areas Percentage Change in Population and Built-up Area Percentage Change in Population and Built-up Area for 10 Largest Cities, 1990-2000 for 10 Largest Cities, 2000-2010 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% Change (%) 60% Change (%) 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Greater Delhi Kolkata Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Surat Jaipur Greater Delhi Kolkata Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Surat Jaipur Mumbai Mumbai Percentage Change in Population Percentage Change in Built- up Area Built-up area has been growing faster than population in nearly all of India’s largest cities for the past two decades. Source: H.S. Sudhira (2011) and IIHS Analysis See endnote for explanation on methodology for calculating built-up area [14]
  • 22. Urban Dynamics Urban Growth: Density Built-up Densities inside Administrative Boundary Built-up Densities outside Administrative Boundary 100 1990 100 1990 Thousands Thousands 90 2000 90 2000 80 2010 80 2010 Persons per sq. km of Built -up area Persons per sq. km of built -up area 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Greater Delhi Kolkata Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Surat Jaipur Greater Delhi Kolkata Chennai Bangalore Hyderabad Ahmedabad Pune Surat Jaipur Mumbai Mumbai Built-up density, estimated as population over built-up area, is decreasing for most of the core areas of the ten largest cities. The evolution of density outside the urban local body boundaries varies more, but density is lower than in the city cores. Source: H.S. Sudhira (2011) and IIHS Analysis See endnote for explanation on methodology for calculating built-up area [16]
  • 23. Urban Dynamics Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Mumbai & Delhi Mumbai 12.6 million 1992 16.4 million 2001 18.4 million 2011 Delhi 8.7 million 1992 13.7 million 2000 16.3 million 2011 Built-up Vegetation Water bodies Others Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011). Urban Land Cover and Land Cover Change Dataset of Indian Cities. IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo. [17]
  • 24. Urban Dynamics Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Kolkata & Chennai Kolkata 10.3 million 1990 13.2 million 2001 14.1 million 2010 Chennai 5.2 million 1991 6.6 million 2000 8.7 million 2009 Built-up Vegetation Water bodies Others Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011). Urban Land Cover and Land Cover Change Dataset of Indian Cities. IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo. [18]
  • 25. Urban Dynamics Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Bangalore & Hyderabad Bangalore 3.4 million 1992 5.7 million 2001 8.5 million 2009 Hyderabad 4.3 million 1989 5.7 million 2001 7.7 million 2009 Built-up Vegetation Water bodies Others Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011). Urban Land Cover and Land Cover Change Dataset of Indian Cities. IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo. [19]
  • 26. Urban Dynamics Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Ahmedabad & Pune Ahmedabad 3.3 million 1992 4.5 million 2001 6.4 million 2011 Pune 2.3 million 1992 3.8 million 2001 5.0 million 2011 Built-up Vegetation Water bodies Others Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011). Urban Land Cover and Land Cover Change Dataset of Indian Cities. IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo. [20]
  • 27. Urban Dynamics Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Surat & Jaipur Surat 1.5 million 1990 2.8 million 2001 4.6 million 2011 Jaipur 1.5 million 1989 2.3 million 2000 3.1 million 2011 Built-up Vegetation Water bodies Others Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011). Urban Land Cover and Land Cover Change Dataset of Indian Cities. IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo. [21]
  • 28. Urban Dynamics Change in Urban Built-up Area & Land Cover: Agra & Chandigharh Agra 0.9 million 1989 1.3 million 2000 1.7 million 2011 Chandigharh 0.6 million 1989 0.8 million 2000 1 million 2011 Built-up Vegetation Water bodies Others Source: H. S. Sudhira (2011). Urban Land Cover and Land Cover Change Dataset of Indian Cities. IIHS Working Paper, Mimeo. [22]
  • 29. Urban Dynamics Spatial Variation in District-wise Distribution of Sectoral Output: 2005-06 100% All the districts of India are arranged in ascending Agriculture order of level of urbanisation, and the lines 90% represent the cumulative distribution of sectoral Cumulative Percentage of Total All-India Output Forestry and output. As expected, we see that some economic 80% Logging activity like banking, insurance and real estate is more concentrated in urban areas, whereas 70% Mining and Quarrying forestry, logging, agriculture, mining and quarrying are less concentrated in urban areas. 60% Manufacturing 50% Trade, Hotels and Restaurants 40% Banking and 30% Insurance 20% Real Estate Sectoral Composition of All India GDP, 2005-06 10% Public Total DDP Admn 5% Other 0% Services Districts, ordered by Level of Urbanisation 9% Agriculture 19% Forestry 1% Real Estate Fishing 1% 9% Banking Mining 2% 6% Manufacturing This chart shows the sectoral composition of the economy. Shades of green Communication 14% represent the primary sector, shades of blue represent the secondary sector 3% and shades of pink and purple represent the tertiary sector. Other Transport 4% Trade Railways 1% 15% Electricity 2% Construction 8% Source : District-level data on economic output from the Planning Commission [23]