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Internet Bandwidth -Scenario Analysis

                                                                           Scenario 1         Scenario 2       Scenario 3
Budget Drivers                                                             (Best case)      (Average case)    (Worst case)
                                                                             (Best)             (Ave)           (Worst)
Guaranteed Service delivery/performance                                               98%               95%            90%
Available Infrastructure                                                              98%               90%            85%
Customer base (Market Share)                                                        100%                75%            50%
Support and Security                                                                  99%               95%            90%



                                                                           Scenario 1         Scenario 2       Scenario 3
                                                                           (Best case)      (Average case)    (Worst case)
ISP Monthly Financial Proposal                                              1MB/1MB           512/512MB       256/512 Kbps

Access Kenya                                                                  KSh 70,000         KSh 70,000     KSh 70,000
Kenya Data Network (KDN)                                                      KSh 46,000         KSh 23,000     KSh 11,500
Zuku (Wananchi Online)                                                        KSh 52,200         KSh 33,060     KSh 17,400
Onecom (Safaricom)                                                            KSh 59,392         KSh 30,972     KSh 17,400

Costing Minimum                                                               KSh 46,000         KSh 23,000     KSh 11,500
Costing Maximum                                                               KSh 70,000         KSh 70,000     KSh 70,000
Budgeted Expenditure per month                KSh 80,000.00

                                                                                             Base Case         Variance
   Scenario 1: Expenditure on 1MB                                                  Kshs.     Variance         Percentage
Best Case                                                                       46,000.00    34,000.00          73.91%
Average Case                                                                    80,000.00        —                —
Worst Case                                                                      70,000.00    10,000.00          14.29%

                                    Case A: 1 MB/s

  80,000.00
  70,000.00
  60,000.00
  50,000.00
  40,000.00
  30,000.00
  20,000.00
  10,000.00
       0.00
                  Best Case               Average Case        Worst Case
Base Case
                                                                                               Variance    Variance
 Scenario2 : Expenditure on 512Kbps                                               Kshs.       (Savings)   Percentage
Best Case                                                                      23,000.00      57,000.00    247.83%
Average Case                                                                   80,000.00          —           —
Worst Case                                                                     70,000.00      10,000.00     14.29%
                                               Case 2: 512 KB/S
                   80,000.00
                   70,000.00
                   60,000.00
                   50,000.00
                   40,000.00
                   30,000.00
                   20,000.00
                   10,000.00
                        0.00
                                  Best Case         Average Case          Worst Case

                                                                                              Base Case
                                                                                               Variance    Variance
 Scenario3 : Expenditure on 256Kbps                                               Kshs.       (Savings)   Percentage
Best Case                                                                      11,500.00      68,500.00    595.65%
Average Case                                                                   80,000.00          —           —
Worst Case                                                                     70,000.00      10,000.00     14.29%
                                              Case C: 256 Kb/S
                    80,000.00
                    70,000.00
                    60,000.00
                    50,000.00
                    40,000.00                                                          Column D
                    30,000.00
                    20,000.00
                    10,000.00
                         0.00
                                Best Case     Average Case   Worst Case
Access Kenya Kenya Data Network (KDN) Zuku (Wananchi Online) Onecom (Safaricom)
Guaranteed Service Delivery/performance             90%                       98%                   98%                 98%
Available Infrastructure                            85%                       95%                   90%                 80%
Customer base (Market Share)                        25%                       25%                   25%                 50%
Support and Security                                65%                       65%                   85%                 90%
Variance in cost                                 14.29%                    73.91%                53.26%              34.70%


Results (Onecom)                                  56%                       71%                    70%                  71%

  120%

  100%

   80%                                                                                            Guaranteed Service De-
                                                                                                  livery/performance
   60%                                                                                            Available Infrastructure
                                                                                                  Customer base (Market
   40%                                                                                            Share)
                                                                                                  Support and Security
   20%                                                                                            Variance in cost

     0%
                             Kenya Data Network (KDN)                  Onecom (Safaricom)
             Access Kenya                         Zuku (Wananchi Online)
ice De-
ce
ucture
Market

urity
Access Kenya Kenya Data Network (KDN) Zuku (Wananchi Online) Onecom (Safaricom)
Guaranteed Service delivery/performance             90%                       98%                   98%                98%
Available Infrastructure                            85%                       95%                   90%                80%
Customer base (Market Share)                        25%                       25%                   25%                50%
Support and Security                                65%                       65%                   85%                90%
Variance in cost                                 14.29%                   247.83%               141.98%            158.30%


Results (KDN)                                     56%                     106%                    88%                   95%


   250%

   200%
                                                                                                  Guaranteed Service de-
   150%                                                                                           livery/performance
                                                                                                  Available Infrastructure
   100%                                                                                           Customer base (Market
                                                                                                  Share)
                                                                                                  Support and Security
    50%
                                                                                                  Variance in cost
     0%
                        Kenya Data Network (KDN)                Onecom (Safaricom)
             Access Kenya                   Zuku (Wananchi Online)
vice de-
ce
 ucture
(Market

urity
Access Kenya Kenya Data Network (KDN) Zuku (Wananchi Online) Onecom (Safaricom)
Guaranteed Service delivery/performance             90%                       98%                   98%                98%
Available Infrastructure                            85%                       95%                   90%                80%
Customer base (Market Share)                        25%                       25%                   25%                50%
Support and Security                                65%                       65%                   85%                90%
Variance in cost                                 14.29%                   595.65%               359.77%            359.77%


Results (KDN)                                     56%                     176%                   132%                  136%


  600%

  500%
                                                                                                Guaranteed Service de-
  400%                                                                                          livery/performance
  300%                                                                                          Available Infrastructure
                                                                                                Customer base (Market
  200%                                                                                          Share)
                                                                                                Support and Security
  100%                                                                                          Variance in cost
     0%
                       Kenya Data Network (KDN)                Onecom (Safaricom)
            Access Kenya                   Zuku (Wananchi Online)
ce de-
e
 cture
Market

rity

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Internet Bandwidth Analysis

  • 1. Internet Bandwidth -Scenario Analysis Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Budget Drivers (Best case) (Average case) (Worst case) (Best) (Ave) (Worst) Guaranteed Service delivery/performance 98% 95% 90% Available Infrastructure 98% 90% 85% Customer base (Market Share) 100% 75% 50% Support and Security 99% 95% 90% Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (Best case) (Average case) (Worst case) ISP Monthly Financial Proposal 1MB/1MB 512/512MB 256/512 Kbps Access Kenya KSh 70,000 KSh 70,000 KSh 70,000 Kenya Data Network (KDN) KSh 46,000 KSh 23,000 KSh 11,500 Zuku (Wananchi Online) KSh 52,200 KSh 33,060 KSh 17,400 Onecom (Safaricom) KSh 59,392 KSh 30,972 KSh 17,400 Costing Minimum KSh 46,000 KSh 23,000 KSh 11,500 Costing Maximum KSh 70,000 KSh 70,000 KSh 70,000 Budgeted Expenditure per month KSh 80,000.00 Base Case Variance Scenario 1: Expenditure on 1MB Kshs. Variance Percentage Best Case 46,000.00 34,000.00 73.91% Average Case 80,000.00 — — Worst Case 70,000.00 10,000.00 14.29% Case A: 1 MB/s 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Best Case Average Case Worst Case
  • 2. Base Case Variance Variance Scenario2 : Expenditure on 512Kbps Kshs. (Savings) Percentage Best Case 23,000.00 57,000.00 247.83% Average Case 80,000.00 — — Worst Case 70,000.00 10,000.00 14.29% Case 2: 512 KB/S 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Best Case Average Case Worst Case Base Case Variance Variance Scenario3 : Expenditure on 256Kbps Kshs. (Savings) Percentage Best Case 11,500.00 68,500.00 595.65% Average Case 80,000.00 — — Worst Case 70,000.00 10,000.00 14.29% Case C: 256 Kb/S 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 Column D 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Best Case Average Case Worst Case
  • 3.
  • 4. Access Kenya Kenya Data Network (KDN) Zuku (Wananchi Online) Onecom (Safaricom) Guaranteed Service Delivery/performance 90% 98% 98% 98% Available Infrastructure 85% 95% 90% 80% Customer base (Market Share) 25% 25% 25% 50% Support and Security 65% 65% 85% 90% Variance in cost 14.29% 73.91% 53.26% 34.70% Results (Onecom) 56% 71% 70% 71% 120% 100% 80% Guaranteed Service De- livery/performance 60% Available Infrastructure Customer base (Market 40% Share) Support and Security 20% Variance in cost 0% Kenya Data Network (KDN) Onecom (Safaricom) Access Kenya Zuku (Wananchi Online)
  • 6. Access Kenya Kenya Data Network (KDN) Zuku (Wananchi Online) Onecom (Safaricom) Guaranteed Service delivery/performance 90% 98% 98% 98% Available Infrastructure 85% 95% 90% 80% Customer base (Market Share) 25% 25% 25% 50% Support and Security 65% 65% 85% 90% Variance in cost 14.29% 247.83% 141.98% 158.30% Results (KDN) 56% 106% 88% 95% 250% 200% Guaranteed Service de- 150% livery/performance Available Infrastructure 100% Customer base (Market Share) Support and Security 50% Variance in cost 0% Kenya Data Network (KDN) Onecom (Safaricom) Access Kenya Zuku (Wananchi Online)
  • 8. Access Kenya Kenya Data Network (KDN) Zuku (Wananchi Online) Onecom (Safaricom) Guaranteed Service delivery/performance 90% 98% 98% 98% Available Infrastructure 85% 95% 90% 80% Customer base (Market Share) 25% 25% 25% 50% Support and Security 65% 65% 85% 90% Variance in cost 14.29% 595.65% 359.77% 359.77% Results (KDN) 56% 176% 132% 136% 600% 500% Guaranteed Service de- 400% livery/performance 300% Available Infrastructure Customer base (Market 200% Share) Support and Security 100% Variance in cost 0% Kenya Data Network (KDN) Onecom (Safaricom) Access Kenya Zuku (Wananchi Online)