KSRI Summer School Agenda

KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and
National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association
INSTITUTE FOR TRANSPORT STUDIES KARLSRUHE SERVICE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
www.kit.edu
KSRI Summer School
Dr.-Ing. Martin Kagerbauer Dr. Wibke Michalk
Karlsruher Institute for Technology (KIT) Karlsruher Institute for Technology (KIT)
Senior Researcher at the KIT Institute for Transport Studies Managing Director at the
Head of Topic Infrastructure Traffic and Mobility Behavior Karlsruhe Service Research Institute
at the KIT Mobility Systems Center

Institute for Transport Studies
Karlsruhe Service Research Institute
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
2 26. September 2013
Dr. Wibke Michalk and Dr. Martin Kagerbauer
Agenda
10:30 – 11:15
Travel Demand (Surveys), Trends in Mobility Research
11:15 – 12:00
Business Models in the Mobility Sector
13:30 – 15:00
Hands On Session: The Future of Mobility
15:30 – 17:00
Present your Solutions!

Outline
Travel Behavior in a Glance
Travel Survey Methods
International
Germany
Results
Future Trends in Mobility Behavior

Quelle: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association: Motor Vehicles Worldwide, 2012
International View
Changing Markets?
Industrialized countries vs. Emerging markets
Saturation of travel demand Increasing travel demand
and car ownership and car ownership
Registrationofnewcars
Year
China
Brasil
India
Russia
Germany
Mexico
Japan
US

International View
Times Series of travel demand in different countries
Source: T. Kuhnimhof : Are Young Men Responsible for Peak Car? Vortrag beim Peak Travel Round Table, IFSTTAR, Paris, 19.6.2012

Data
Countries with National Travel Behavior Surveys (NTS)
Source: COST Action
SHANTI

Data
Are the survey data comparable?
Source: COST Action
SHANTI
Δ 3%
persons
15+
persons
0+
persons
10+
persons
0+

Data
Source: COST Action
SHANTI
88% trip
makers
90% trip
makers
92% trip
makers
78% trip
makers

Data
Source: COST Action
SHANTI

Data
Are the survey data comparable? – Yes!
Source: COST Action
SHANTI

Two complementary surveys in Germany
MiD (= German NTS) MOP
Design Repeated cross-sectional survey Longitudinal panel survey
 Daily travel behavior: 7 consecutive
days (autumn) in 3 consecutive years
 Odometer reading: all refuel processes
of all car in the MOP sample (spring) in
8 weeks in three consecutive years
Net sample Large (~ 25.000 HH) Small (~ 1.000 HH)
Frequency Irregular (every 6 to 8 years) Every year
Contractor  Field work: infas (2002, 2008)
 Scientific supervisors:
DIW (2002), DLR (2008)
 Field work:
infratest (since 1994)
infas (cohort 2003)
 Scientific supervisor: KIT
Funding BMVBS
(Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development)

German Surveys in comparison:
Net Sample Size
KONTIV 1976
KONTIV 1982
KONTIV 1989
MiD 2002 MiD 2008
MOP since 1994
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1976
1982
1989
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sample size
MOP [HH]
Sample size
KONTIV / MiD [HH]
Year

MiD / MOP in comparison: Coverage
MiD MOP
Sampling frame Official population registry Market research bus
Sampling unit Individual person (aged ≧ 14) Household
Sampling
stratification
 16 federal states (Bundesländer)
 17 regional / community types
Germany
 5 regional types
 4 household types
 car ownership
Weighting (post
stratification)
 5 HH sizes
 7 regional types
 7 weekdays / 12 months
 Age / sex
 4 HH sizes
 3 groups car ownership
 3 groups population of home location
 Age / sex
Respondents Up to 8 HH members aged ≧ 0 Up to 5 HH members aged ≧ 10
Individual / HH
reporting period
 1 day (trip diary)
 up to 3 journeys with overnight stay
(3 months retrospectively)
 1 week (trip diary)
 8 weeks (odometer reading)
Overall reporting
period
Every day of an entire year  Several weeks in autumn
(HH questionnaire, trip diary)
 8 weeks in spring (odometer reading)

MiD / MOP in comparison: Instruments
MiD 2002 * MOP since 1994
HH level
 PAPI (if no phone number is available)
 CATI
 PAPI
Person level  PAPI
Trip level  PAPI
MiD 2008 *
HH level **  PAPI (if no phone number is available)
(~ 7%)
 CATI (~ 85%)
 CAWI (~ 8%)
Person level  CATI (100%)
Trip level  CATI (100%)
* proxy interview for children: mandatory below age of 10,
voluntary from age 10 to 13
** HH eligible only, if at least 50% of HH members completed
both person and trip interview

MiD / MOP in comparison: Survey Process
MiD MOP
Sampling method  Random sampling with geographic
stratification
 Random sampling of the market
research bus with geographic and
household specific stratification
Recruiting letter 
Dissemination of
survey material
 1st phone call (HH interview)
 mailing of HH questionnaire
 Phone call (ask for participation)
 Mailing of questionnaire and trip
diary
 Mailing of memory jogger
 Reminder for trip diary  Reminder (if necessary)
 2nd phone call (individual
questionnaire / trip reporting)
Coding 
Plausibility check 
Basic analysis 

MiD MOP
HH size; type; vehicle ownership; income;
phone number
size; type; area/ park condition of home
location; vehicle ownership and use;
accessability of public transport/ of usual
destinations, income
Person socio-demographics; school/ occupation;
long-distance trips; accessibility of public
transport/ of usual destinations; general
mode choice; individual availablity of car/
bike/ public transport ticket; handicaps;
weather conditions
socio-demographics; school/ occupation;
area of working place; parking conditions at
work, individual availablity of car/ bike/ public
transport ticket; handicaps
Trip purpose; type of O/ D; distance; duration;
mode(s); regular business trips
weekday, start and end time of trip, purpose;
mode(s); distance;
HH car manufacturer/ model; engine type/ power;
type of registration; year of manufacture/
purchase; usual parking place; annual
mileage; current odometer reading; main
driver
Journey purpose; destination area; mode
Odometer
reading
type of car (see MiD), milage, refuel process
(date, odometer reading, amount, costs)
MiD / MOP in comparison: Content

MiD / MOP in comparison:
Available material
General data availability for third parties
Academia, political decision makers, public authorities, planning engineers, transport providers, etc.
Access is subject to prior registration
MiD MOP
Data sets  HH, person, trip, car, journeys
 various file formats
 HH, person, person per day, trip
 Car (mileage/ fuel consumption)
 various file formats
Codebook  
User guide / manual  
Methodological report   (part of the analytic report)
Tabular report   (part of the analytic report)
Analytical report  
Analysis tool  ---
Website  

Options for analysis: MOP
517 297 161
447 203 173
1123 837 632
513 364 296
504 402 294
1189 761 623
563 417 309
975 766 617
699 524 491
856 599 481
748 575 401
671 448 352
706 573 433
. . .
720 589 442
761 575 480
613 491 404
797 611 …
785
total sample size (517) (744) 1487 1523 1500 1887 1618 2015 1774 1997 1838 1727 1555 1645 1783 1630 1768 1800
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 continu
Numberofpersonsindifferentcohortsofayear
Selectivity study
2002
pilot study
1991 to 1993
crosssectional results
data of one year from all three cohorts
longitudinal results
data of persons
in three
consecutive years
from one cohort

MiD / MOP: Selected results
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Kmperpersonandday
Year
MOP annual since1994
KONTIV
1976
KONTIV
1982
MID
2002
German Mobility Panel (MOP)
Mobility in Germany (MiD) and KONTIV
MID
2008

MiD / MOP: Selected results
82
85
89
91 92
31
39
41
39 40
37
45 46
42
44
10,0 11,7 11,8 11,0 11,8
3
3,3
3,5 3,5
3,4
3,7
3,9 3,9
3,8
3,7
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
KONTIV 1982 MiD 2002 MiD 2008 MOP 2002 MOP 2008
Trips [n]Share [%] / Distance [km]
Share of mobile
persons [%]
Distance per
person per day
[km]
Distance per
mobile person
per day [km]
Average trip
length [km]
Trips per person
per day [n]
Trips per mobile
person per day
[n]
Persons ≧ 10 years

Two survey approaches: (Dis-)Advantages
Current state Advantage / Opportunity Disadvantage / Risk
Long tradition of both surveys
Consistent time series;
continuous methodological
development
Reluctancy to change anything
(content, methods)
differing sampling frame
Complementary coverage of
different user groups
Sampling bias / selectivity;
comparison of incomparable
Large (MiD) & small (MOP)
sample
Combination of continouse survey
(trends) and big sample
Large sample is expensive
Differing reporting periods Complementary analysis
Comparison of incomparable if
inadequate post-harmonisiation
Differing instruments Complementary analysis
Methodological bias; comparison
of incomparable
Similar concepts (e.g. trip) Complementary / parallel analysis ---
Similar set of questions /
variables
Parallel analysis; reciprocal
validation
Limited comparability due to slight
variations
Avoidance of pre-aggregated
answering options
easy post-harmonisation ---
Availability for third parties joint / comparative analyses
Inaccurate data analysis in case
of insufficient expertise

Travel activity
Respondents
 In both surveys, „normal“ people are more likely to participate
Data quality: Selectivity of samples
Immobility due
to handicaps?
Not interested in
(travel) surveys?
Low income?
Many business trips?
Busy people: lack of time?
Many recreational
trips?
High income?
Many HH cars?

Traveled km in Germany
Use of public transport and cars in different age groups
Source: Kagerbauer and Vortisch.2013

Modes in Germany
Share of modes (trips)
All persons
Modal split [%] all persons in Germany:
decreasing car use
Source: own calculations
PT
Bike
Walk
Car Pass.
Car Driver
Others
Year

Modes in Germany
Modal split [%] persons up to 30 years old in Germany:
decreasing car use and increasing use of PT
All persons up to 30 years old
PT
Bike
Walk
Others
Year
Car Pass.
Car Driver

Verkehrsleistung in Deutschland
Modal split [%] persons 60 years old and more in Germany:
increasing car use
All persons 60 years old and more
PT
Bike
Walk
Others
Year
Car Pass.
Car Driver

Car availability
0
20
40
60
80
100
18 bis unter 35 35 bis unter 60 60 und älter
Shareofpeoplewithcar[%]
1996-1999 2005-2008
Deutsches Mobilitätspanel
Less car availability by younger persons – more car availability by elderly
Car availibility by age groups – End of 90s and today

Travel behavior changes
Increasing multimodal
travel behavior
Used modes in the last 15 years
all persons
source: Kunert; Radke; Chlond; Kagerbauer: DIW Economic Bulletin, 2013

Demographic changes
Germany
Quelle: DESTATIS

Demographic changes
Karlsruhe
Quelle:BertelsmannStiftung
Quelle: Bertelsmann Stiftung

Demographic changes
Karlsruhe
Quelle: Bertelsmann Stiftung

Conclusions
Stagnation of traveled km per Person
Decreasing car use of young adults
Increasing car use of elderly people
Differences between rural areas and conurbations
Demographic development
Population is decreasing (in Europe and Germany)
Population is getting older
More population in conurbations – less in rural areas
Increasing inter- and multimodal travel behavior
Use of all modes and and complementary mode us depending on the situation
Mobility Services are getting more and more inportant
Generation „iPhone“

Trends of development
Quelle: BITKOM, 2010
Question: „I can not imagine a life, without …“
Internet is getting more and more important instead of cars
Handy
Internet
car
my partner
All
14 to 29 years

Reasons?
Season tickets for students
Quellen: Google Bilder: http://www.google.de
Mobility attitude
Social Media and Apps
Other reasons

Outlook

Outlook
The futures mobility?
Quellen: www.bmw.de
Connected drive integrates
Facebook, Twitter and
flinc (agency for arranging rides)

Outlook
Futures mobilty
Car use instead of
car ownership
Multimodal instead of
monomodal
Mobility services
Car-Sharing
Mobility apps
New mobility ideas
…
Source: Own figure
Complete solution
Complementary modes

Agenda
10:30 – 11:15
Travel Demand (Surveys), Trends in Mobility Research
11:15 – 12:00
Business Models in the Mobility Sector
13:30 – 15:00
Hands On Session: The Future of Mobility
15:30 – 17:00
Present your Solutions!

KSRI Summer School Agenda

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