Willms Future Trends In Tourism Global Perspectives Club Of Amsterdam Confernce 2007 05 31

The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

The Future Trends
in Tourism -
Global Perspectives

‚the future of TOURISM‘,
a Club of Amsterdam conference
31.05.2007, Amsterdam.

Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 1


[A] Tourism – already a global competition

The current state:
facts & figures


Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007

 The World‘s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions



The future state:
forecasts & figures



[T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies

2005 – 2025:
Two Asian Decades



Source: WTTC 2007

Asia‘s
Future
Tourism
Tigers



Source: WTTC 2007

Asia‘s
Future
Tourism
Tiger



Source: WTTC 2007

Asia‘s
Future
Tourism
Tigers



LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006]



UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast]

Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm



UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast]



Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions
PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 – 2025

Average Annual
Growth Rate
in %

Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007



[T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“

Europe‘s New Burden -
Retirement Poverty



Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe Life exspectancy at birth, 2001



Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe
Population Ageing in the
EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050



Facts:
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe • According to the United
Nations, population ageing is
• Population Ageing increasingly becoming one of the
most salient social, economic
and demographic phenomena of
• Depopulation our times.
• By 2030 the EU can expect
and 14 percent fewer workers and
7 percent fewer consumers as
2005
• Shrinking Cities
• By 2050, the number of people
over 60 in Europe will reach 40%
[in EUROPE]
of the total population or 60% of
the working age population.


Share of persons 60 years and over
Tourism Future & [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat]
Ageing Europe
Germany:
2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41%
Population Ageing in the EU:

• Germany Belgium:
• Belgium 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38%
• Denmark
• Spain Denmark:
• France 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36%

Spain:
Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44%

France:
2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38%



Consequences:
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe
• Shrinking Income
• Shrinking Consumption
• Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth

• Depopulation • Old Age Poverty &
• Social Exclusion
and
• Growing Health Risks &
• Long Term Health Problems
• Large Scale Immobilities &
[in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destinations]



Results from the SHARE-Project
Consequences:
Tourism Future &
[http://www.share-project.org]
Ageing Europe
...clearly indicate that men • Shrinking Income
and women with a lower socio- • Shrinking Consumption
• Population Ageing
economic status have already a • Skrinking Wealth
worse physical health than
those with a higher socio-
• Depopulation • Old Age Poverty &
economic position
Among both men and women, a
and
low educational level or income
is associated with a higher risk
of reporting less than good self-
perceived health, long-term
• Large Scale Immobilities &
problems, as well as activity
[in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination]
limitations due to health
problems.


Consequences:
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe
• Shrinking Income
• Shrinking Consumption
• Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth
Discussed Solution:
• Depopulation New Migrant Workers:
• Old Age Poverty &
80–700 million migrants by 2050!
and
A sustainable increase of
VFR-Tourism Immobilities &
• Large Scale shall follow!
[in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination]



[T3] Tourism Future – „VFR-Tourism“

„CU soon, my friend/brother“ -
Global
VFR-Tourism
Streams



The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism




[T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change

„The Mediterranization of
Western- and Central-Europe“ -
Climate Change Advantages [?]



IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for:



IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for...



IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy]



North Amerika Europe

Amerika

Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006




Amerika




Caribbean North America North-East-Asia

Amerika




Amerika




Elderly (esp. European)
may avoid travel to „very hot
summer destinations“; i. g.
Amerika
• the Mediterranean Basin
• East Coast USA
• South-West USA
• Australian Cities



NW- and Central-
Europe‘s Domestic and
Incoming Tourism Streams
may benefit from CC in
the summer saison!

• Warmer Coastal Waters
[Increase in Sun & Beach Tourism]

• New Marine Attractions
[Dolphins, Fish Species, Algae and Corals, Birds]

• Warmer Land Surfaces &
• Mediterranization of Lifstyles


Willms Future Trends In Tourism Global Perspectives Club Of Amsterdam Confernce 2007 05 31

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Willms Future Trends In Tourism Global Perspectives Club Of Amsterdam Confernce 2007 05 31