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Cisco CFO Frank Calderoni talks
transformation, technology
and transactions
The big
switch
Oil and gas in focus:
how to extract value
Mexico: land of opportunity
The end of QE:
what it means for business
Capital InsightsHelping businesses raise, invest, preserve and optimize capital
Q42013
Helping businesses raise, invest,
preserve and optimize capital
Preserving Opti
m
izingRaisi
ng
Inve
sting
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
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www.capitalinsights.info
ContributorsCapital Insights would like to thank the following
business leaders for their contribution to this issue:
AlldatainCapitalInsightsiscorrectat1October2013unlessotherwisestated©PaulHeartfield
Pablo Coballasi
Managing
Director,
PC Capital
Neil Bearden
Associate
Professor,
INSEAD
Peter Harbula
Corporate
Finance Director,
Edenred
Fernando de
Ovando
Senior Partner,
Jones Day
Guy Stainer
IR Director,
GKN
José Zaga
CEO,
Vicky Form
Mike Reid
Managing
Partner,
Frog Capital
Paul Seabright
Professor,
Toulouse School
of Economics
Tony Cockerill
Economist,
University of
Cambridge
Ajay Bhalla
Professor,
Cass Business
School
Tony Del Pino
Partner, Latham
& Watkins
Frank Calderoni
CFO, Cisco
Tim Drayson
Head of
Economic Legal
Team, LGIM
Bernard Dumas
Professor of
Finance, INSEAD
Rupa
Duttagupta
Deputy Chief,
World Economic
Studies, IMF
Charles M. Elson
Professor of
Legal Studies,
University of
Delaware
Roderick
Branch
Partner, Latham
& Watkins
Kevin Forbes
Partner, Epi-V
James Grebey
Author,
Operations Due
Diligence
Evan Greenberg
Chairman and
CEO, ACE
Nick O'Neill
CEO,
Macquarie Bank
Lee Hopley
Chief Economist,
EEF
Richard Loh
Managing
Director,
Eurostop
Simon Jones
Director, OMERS
Private Equity
Fernando Solis
Soberón
Chairman,
Afore XXI
Banorte
Hung Tran
Executive
Managing
Director, IIF
Jonny Myers
Partner,
Clifford Chance
Ramin Nakisa
Asset Allocation
Strategist, UBS
Jack Neill-Hall
Communications
Manager,
Institute of
Family Business
Tania Ortiz
Mena
VP Business
Development,
IEnova
Diane Coyle
Author,
The economics
of enough
Nigel Bishop
Co-Chairman,
Bishop's Move
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 3
For more insights, visit www.capitalinsights.info where you can find our latest
thought leadership, including our market-leading Capital Confidence Barometer.
Joachim Spill
Transaction Advisory Services Leader, EMEIA
(Europe, Middle East, India and Africa) at EY
If you have any feedback or questions, please email joachim@capitalinsights.info
In the 18th century, Jonathan Swift, the famed author of Gulliver's
Travels, said: “Vision is the art of seeing what is invisible to others.”
Centuries later, this still rings true — particularly for corporates
looking for growth in a changing world.
In 2013, deal-makers searching for success not only have to
see the big picture, but also have to focus on those details that others may
miss. Compared with last year, deal values have risen by 5.5%, according
to Mergermarket data. Deal-makers can take heart from this news, and for
those who have the vision to see the broader economic picture and the
ability to keep a keen eye on the specifics, the rewards can be plentiful.
In this issue of Capital Insights, we examine how companies can achieve
these rewards with both oversight and insight.
The big picture: with economic stability yet to return, we explore how
corporates receiving cogent macro- and microeconomic advice will have
the edge over their competitors (page 32). Meanwhile, on page 35, we
ask what the end of quantitative easing could mean for corporates that
are looking to raise capital. And, on page 20, we see how the oil and gas
sector is coping with the changing global picture.
Detail driven: when it comes to individual deals, corporates need
to be focused on the specifics. On page 24, we look at the importance
of an integrated approach to due diligence and reveal the areas
where corporates need to pay particular attention. In our regular
country focus on page 10, we discover how local knowledge is crucial
when investing in Mexico. Finally, in our exclusive interview on page
14, Cisco’s CFO Frank Calderoni discusses the broader questions
surrounding business transformation and acquisitions.
In today’s world, corporates face the twin challenges of having to
take a broad view of their entire capital agenda, while simultaneously
providing microscopic focus on each deal. With that in mind, this issue of
Capital Insights should be something of an eye-opener.
Seeing
clearly
14Cisco
Features
10 	 Mexico: catching the wave
Reforms and investment are transforming
the Latin American giant, but how should
corporates deal in a country that brings
complexity along with opportunity?
14	 Cover story: The big switch
Cisco CFO Frank Calderoni discusses the
company’s business transformation, its
portfolio and partnership strategies, and
reveals the key role finance is playing.
20	 Fueling growth
The oil and gas sector may be buoyed by record
prices and demand, but a focus on strong
returns, innovations and partnerships are
needed to survive and thrive in this industry.
24	 All the right elements
What factors and processes make up the due
diligence process, how can corporates get it
right, and how can companies make sure that
their transaction is the best that it can be?
28	 The ties that bind
We look at the key traits behind successful
family businesses and the challenges
they face, as well as exploring what other
corporates can learn from them.
32	 The big picture
With the world’s economy still uncertain,
Capital Insights looks at how incisive
macro- and microeconomic advice can give
companies the edge when investing capital.
35	 Stop the press
What are the potential effects of the
unwinding of quantitative easing, and how
should corporates worldwide prepare?
10Mexico
WINNER 2012
EY is proud to be the Financial
Times/Mergermarket European
Accountancy Firm of The Year
#
1
EY — recognized by Mergermarket as
top of the European league tables for
accountancy advice on transactions
in calendar year 2012*
*As run on 7 January 2013
©iStock.com/SteveCole
©GaryParker
Corbis/IvanVdovin
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
Capital InsightsHelping businesses raise, invest, preserve and optimize capital
Q42013
On the web or on the move?
Capital Insights is available online and on your mobile
device. To access extra content and download the app,
visit www.capitalinsights.info
Regulars
06 Headlines
The latest news in the world of the
capital agenda, and what it could mean
for your business.
07 Deal dynamics
EY’s Pär-Ola Hansson explains why
megadeals are back and what corporates
can learn from this trend.
08 Transaction insights		
Capital Insights explores the rising trend
in M&A auctions and talks to Simon
Jones of OMERS PE about a recent deal.
27 The PE perspective
EY’s Sachin Date discusses the
importance of IPOs as an exit strategy
for private equity houses.
38 Moeller’s corner			
M&A Professor Scott Moeller reveals
what corporates need to know in order
to sell assets properly.
39 Further insights
Learn about Capital Insights’ web and
app features, plus a look at three new
EY thought leadership reports.
28Family business
Due diligence
24 Quantitative easing
35
BloombergviaGettyImages
©Corbis/MatthiasKulka
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 5
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EYCapital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
Headlines
Mexico investments boom
Mexico’s corporates are ready to begin a
US$27b investment program, according to
the country’s business council. The forecast,
announced by Claudio X. González, head of
the Mexican Businessmen’s Council (CMHN),
surpasses the US$22b invested by CMHN
member firms in 2012. Cash is also coming in
from foreign corporates looking to tap into this
emerging market. The biggest inbound deal
so far this year was in June, with US beverage
company Anheuser-Busch InBev completing
its US$20.1b acquisition of Grupo Modelo.
The increasing flow of money into the country,
both from home and abroad, will no doubt fuel
Mexico’s future corporate development. For
more on Mexico, see page 10.
Fresh hope for IPOs
Capital-raising corporates are looking to listings
for increased returns. EY’s latest Global IPO
Update has projected that 566 IPOs worldwide
between Q1—Q3 2013 will raise US$94.8b (up
from US$91.4b last year). These expectations
are fueled by strong performance in the US,
where 65 deals worth US$11.8b accounted for
33% of global deal numbers and 49% of total
capital raised. Europe is also looking healthier,
with the level of capital raised in 2013 up 204%
on the same period last year. And the future
seems bright, with several companies hoping
to list soon. For instance, Dutch financial group
ING is expected to list its insurance arm in 2014.
With confidence returning, corporates looking
to raise capital should consider going public.
Bidders battle it out
Competition for assets is growing in the M&A
market. Mergermarket figures show that
auction deals rose significantly in the first
three quarters of 2013, with 148 announced,
compared with 86 in the same period in 2012.
Notable examples of auctions this year include
Turkish company EnerjiSA Power Generation’s
acquisition of Toroslar Elektrik Dagitim for
US$1.7b, and Rhone Capital’s US$1.4b
purchase of CSM NV’s bakery supplies
business. Deal-makers need to keep on top
of the trend, especially as auctions can often
push up asset values. For more on auctions,
see “Transaction insights” on page 8 and
“Moeller’s corner”, page 38.
Technology deals surge
Technology transactions are helping to
revive the M&A market. Deals this year in the
technology, media and telecommunications
(TMT) sector were worth US$445.6b between
Q1—Q3 2013. This represents 22.7% of the
global M&A value, according to Mergermarket.
Indeed, seven of the top ten deals in the first
three quarters of this year were in the TMT
sector. Big deals that have boosted the sector
this year include Liberty Global’s buyout of
Virgin Media for US$24.9b, and the proposed
merger between advertising giants Publicis
and Omnicom. With large deals defining the
sector this year, corporates should take note
of how the industry is being transformed. For
more on transformational deals, see “Deal
dynamics”, page 7.
clBloombergviaGettyImagestcAFP/GettyImages/TORUYAMANAKAcrGettyImages/CarlosS.Pereyra
Commodities to fuel M&A
The metals and mining sector could be set for
a deal bonanza, should commodity prices rise.
EY’s Mergers, acquisitions and capital raising
in mining and metals 1H 2013 shows that deal
volume was down 30% on the same period one
year previously, with 350 deals recorded. Deal
value was up 41%, although, in the main, this
can be attributed to the US$37.8b Glencore
International and Xstrata merger. But, according
to EY’s Global Mining and Metals Transactions
Leader, Lee Downham, demand for assets could
jump if commodities gain in price. “A sign of
sustained improvement in commodity prices
may be needed to trigger an increase in
competitive buying activity of the many divested
assets coming to market,” he said in the report.
As the hunt for new opportunities continues,
corporates should take note of these trends.
Europe bonding well
Bank loans are becoming less popular with EU
companies. Fitch data has revealed that loan
markets represented just €238b (US$322b) of
the €495b (US$671b) of total new debt funding
for European companies in H1 2013, down 60%
year-on-year, and it is the first time European
firms have borrowed less than €500b (US$677b)
from syndicated loan markets in a decade. The
study, which analyzed the balance sheets of
201 rated European companies, also found that
bonds are becoming increasingly important for
raising capital. In the first half of this year, bond
financing accounted for 82% of the average
corporate debt structure, compared with 68% in
2008. Royal Dutch Shell’s US$3.75b issuance
in August is indicative of this trend. With bank
financing becoming more scarce, corporates
need to consider other options for raising capital.
Pär-Ola Hansson is Deputy Leader EMEIA
Transaction Advisory Services, EY.
For further insight, please email
par-ola@capitalinsights.info
7
Deal dynamics
Pär-Ola Hansson
A
fter the US$27.4b takeover of
Heinz by Berkshire Hathaway
(BH) and 3G in February, BH
CEO Warren Buffett said that
he was still ready to spend the company’s
cash to bag another “elephant of a deal.” And
the Sage of Omaha is not the only one — it
appears the megadeal is back in fashion.
While overall M&A deal value in Q1—Q3
2013 was up 5.5% compared with 2012,
megadeal (those above US$2b) values rose
44.1% in the same period, with Q3 2013
being the highest quarter since Q1 2009,
according to Mergermarket. For example,
in February, international cable company
Liberty Global announced a US$24.9b deal
for Virgin Media. And, two months later, in the
life sciences sector, Thermo Fisher Scientific
bought Life Technologies for US$13.6b.
There are three factors behind this
blockbuster boom: cash, confidence and
consolidation. At the end of Q2 2013, in
the US alone, non-financial companies were
sitting on US$1.27t in cash, according to
Standard & Poor’s. And investors are insisting
that corporates put this to work.
However, megadeals don’t get done
unless confidence is high. Fortunately, this
seems to be rising — in October’s EY Capital
Confidence Barometer, 65% of respondents
felt that the global economy was improving,
compared with 51% six months ago.
As corporates consolidate, megadeals
have often been concentrated in certain
sectors. This was true in 2009 in the
pharmaceutical industry, when the deals
between Pfizer and Wyeth, Roche and
Genentech, and Merck and Schering Plough
©PaulHeartfield
Transformational M&A is making the headlines once
again. But why are these deals on the rise and what
lessons can other corporates learn?
moves
are
had a collective value of US$155b. In 2013,
it’s the turn of telecommunications, media
and technology. For example, the deal
between Publicis and Omnicom, announced
in July 2013, would create the world’s largest
advertising and marketing service.
However, complexities such as greater
scrutiny, the fact that both bidder and target
are often listed entities, and the fear of
information leakages mean that corporates
must be more prepared than usual when
undertaking transformational deals.
Companies must create a close deal
team to prevent leaks that can destabilize
a megadeal. The April 2013 Intralinks M&A
Confidential report showed that, from 2010
to 2012, leaked deals had a lower completion
rate (80%) than non-leaked deals (88%).
The team must gather as much available
information on the target as it can and do the
due diligence well in advance — as once the
deal is announced, all eyes will be on it.
In addition, early discussion with the key
shareholders is vital. Corporates need to
be clear about the deal’s benefits and how it
will increase shareholder value.
Experts certainly feel that megadeals can
be influential on the market. In an interview
earlier this year, Paul Parker, Head of Global
Corporate Finance and M&A at Barclays,
said: “Big deals tend to be transformational
for industries. Second-order consequences
can be very meaningful — often requiring a
strategic offensive or defensive response.”
The blockbuster-deal wave may
prove that fortune favors the brave. And
corporates of all sizes should take note as
they hunt for growth.
Bold
back
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
M&A announced auctions volume and value 2009—13
Value of M&A auctions, 2009—13
182
242
101
151
148
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013* Q3
12
41
Q1
12
21
Q2
12
24
Q1
13
Q2
13
Q3
13
43
51
54
}
86
}
148
Total auctions Q1—Q3
2012
and
2013
Volum
e
of M
&A
auctions 2009—13
2010
US$82.3b
2009
US$53.4b
2011
US$43.4b
2012
US$56b
2013*
* Up to Q3
US$41.2b
Deal volumes may not be hitting the heights
of five years ago, but prize assets are
being fought over more keenly than ever.
Competition among bidders has increased
markedly in the last year — the first three
quarters of 2013 saw the announcement
of 148 auction deals — almost double the
86 announced in the same period in 2012.
Indeed, it is the highest number of M&A
auctions seen in the first three quarters of a
year since 2009.
The auction boom has also, it seems,
caught the eye of private equity (PE) and
buyout houses. There were 37 PE buyouts
in 2013 up to Q3 — already more than the
entire number of PE-won auctions in 2012.
The biggest so far this year was Rhone
Transaction
insightsKey facts and figures from the world of M&A. This issue: auctions
Capital’s US$1.4b purchase of consumer
food company CSM’s European and North
American bakery supplies business.
The average auction deal value so far this
year is US$332m, down on the US$430m
averaged last year. Of the 124 auctions that
disclosed a deal value so far this year, 72 are
valued at US$100m or less, indicating that
auctions are becoming a preferred option
for small to mid-cap companies. Indeed,
at 48.6%, the proportion of auction deals
under US$100m is the highest since 2009.
Auctions still represent a small slice of
M&A. But their growing popularity should be
noted by smaller firms looking to sell, as well
as acquisitive corporates. In the end, it is they
who will need to fight harder for their prize.
Source:Mergermarket
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 9
Dealing with competition
Simon Jones, Director at OMERS Private Equity, contrasts competitive
auctions with bilateral deals
To a large degree, the rise
in the number of auctions
taking place is due in part to
two factors: confidence and
accountability. Auctions provide
a market-tested outcome for
value. In contrast, selling and
buying in off-market deals can
lead to challenges from both
parties over whether value
was really maximized or if the
asset was overpriced. However,
maintaining confidentiality is
more easily achieved through
bilateral deals.
In May, we acquired IT
systems and business process
services provider Civica for
£390m (US$625m) from PE
firm 3i. This deal was a hybrid
auction; appetite from a wide
number of parties was gauged
during pre-marketing, with
only half a dozen or so serious
bidders invited into the process
in earnest. Next to off-market
opportunities, these “limited”
auctions are a preferred
route for us, as we want to
understand the competitive
dynamics and have confidence
in our angles. Due to this, we
would struggle to get excited
about a truly open auction.
Simon Jones
is a Director at OMERS
Private Equity
The greatest difference
between an auction and a
bilateral deal is the access
to both management and
company information. With
multiple parties involved
in an auction, sell-side
advisors have to ration access
considerably. As a result of
this, we seek early meetings
with management and do
considerable amounts of
preparatory work before
entering a competitive process.
Assessing your ability to win is
important, because processes
are costly and time-consuming.
GettyImages/Photodisc
The top 10 countries (value of M&A auctions*), 2009—13**
* All values in US$ ** Up to Q3
Top five countries
by auction deal value
Other top countries
by auction deal value
France
$11.9b
Sweden
$8.5b
Germany
$17.4b
Turkey
$13.6b
Russia
$17.8b
China
$16.1b
US
$60.7b
Australia
$12.3b
UK
$28.3b
South Korea
$23.2b
Some activity has come from public sector bodies looking
to privatize assets in tough economic times: 8 of the top 25
deals by value so far in 2013 have been governments selling
to private corporates. This included the US$5b purchase
of Port Botany and Port Kembla from the New South Wales
Government in Australia by a consortium led by IFM and the
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.
Countries putting companies under the hammer
Unsurprisingly, auctions are most popular by volume
in M&A’s biggest market: the US. This reflects the legal
pressures on boards to demonstrate shareholder value.
Excluding lapsed auctions, there have been 232 in the US
since 2009, far ahead of second-placed China, which saw
143 auctions over the same period.
istock/Pingebat
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
Catching
the wave
Mexico:
Economic reform, strong
demographics and investment-
focused corporates mean that Mexico
is a market on the move. But how
should you deal in a country that also
brings complexity?
Key insights
•	 The Mexican economy is set to become
the largest Latin American economy
within a decade, overtaking Brazil.
•	 This growth is partly down to Mexico’s
strong fundamentals, such as
demographics and political reform.
•	 Mexico’s consumer sector has seen
more deals this year than any other
industry in the country, in part thanks
to developing consumer credit firing
the sector’s growth.
•	 The country has also garnered a
reputation as being a key position in
corporates’ global supply chains.
•	 Mexico’s multinationals are making big
moves into developed markets, such as
Europe and the US.
B
razil might be a darling of investors,
but Mexico may soon eclipse it. The
country is on course to overtake
Brazil and become the region’s
largest economy within a decade, according
to research by investment bank Nomura.
“Mexico is now in the moment, as a result
of macro and micro factors and industrial
policies,” says Roberto Cuarón, Partner,
Valuation and Business Modelling, EY, Mexico.
“Other countries haven’t yet driven away the
effects of the 2008 crisis.”
A swelling middle class has made
investors take note as Mexico integrates into
the global supply chain. Mexico’s statistics
institute, INEGI, has shown that, from 2000
to 2010, the country’s middle class grew by
four percentage points to 39.2%.
The short-term outlook is also generally
positive. Although the International Monetary
Fund recently cut Mexico’s growth forecast to
1.8% for this year, it expects growth to return
to 3% in 2014 as ongoing structural reforms
bear fruit. Additionally, capital market
activity is thriving. Dealogic figures show that
Mexico’s equity capital market is having a
record year — raising US$10.4b in 2013.
Economic reform
A big factor behind the investment drive
is the progress of reforms, introduced by
President Enrique Peña Nieto since he took
office in December 2012. Key to this is
Nieto’s “Pact for Mexico”, a signed accord
that pushes cross-sector reforms that are
designed to boost annual economic growth
Corbis/Ivan Vdovin
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 11
to 6% — a threefold increase on the average of 2% seen since
2000. The scale of the reforms encompasses labor, education,
banking, tax, telecoms and energy. For example, this year,
Congress has approved an overhaul of the country’s telecom
laws, opening up the sector to greater competition and to
allow more FDI.
“Pact for Mexico” reforms are creating opportunities in
sectors previously reserved for state monopolies. Investors
had tended to bypass Mexico’s hydrocarbon, mining, power
and telecoms sectors, seeing them as the preserve of
domestic firms. Since 1999, these sectors have accounted
for only 9% of the FDI flowing into Mexico. By contrast, they
account for 26% of FDI stock in Brazil, 35% in Argentina and
45% in Chile. The reforms are set to change the perception of
investors and encourage entry into these sectors.
Although the reforms can provide a boost, experts note
that solid foundations are the main drivers behind Mexico’s
recent wave of investor interest. “The reforms are very
welcome, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the fundamentals — the
changing demographic and robust economic management —
that will drive this country forward,” says Nick O’Neill, head of
fund manager Macquarie’s Mexican Infrastructure Investment
Fund. “And, if you overlay the reform program on top of this,
you have a very compelling investment story.”
The generally healthy macro indicators show that
Mexico’s economy is a good place to invest, says Tania Ortiz
Mena, Vice President of Business Development at Mexican
energy infrastructure company IEnova. The reforms are the
icing on the cake. “We have a new administration that has
proven that it can create a consensus with other politicians
to pass substantial reforms. There is the expectation that this
administration can achieve substantial change,” she says.
Mexico’s strategic location and growth potential means
that companies will continue to acquire Mexican assets, notes
Tony Del Pino, Partner at law firm Latham & Watkins, and
Co-chair of its Latin America Practice. “Recent big deals have
included Anheuser-Busch InBev acquiring Grupo Modelo
for US$20.1b in June. And the Swiss engineering company
Foster Wheeler completed its first Mexican acquisition in
April. This was a strategic move intended to grow their
upstream capabilities, and their geographic engineering and
construction footprint in Latin America,” he says.
Deal revival
Deal flow suggests that foreign firms have a strong appetite in
Mexico. According to Mergermarket, Mexico saw 30 deals up
to Q3 2013. This is the second-highest number in five years.
Mexico is receiving more attention than ever before
from both strategic and institutional buyers, according to
Del Pino. “Deal size has been on the rise, from the US$20.1b
acquisition of Grupo Modelo to the US$1.6b
acquisition of Spanish banking group BBVA’s
pension fund business by Mexican bank
Banorte. We’re also seeing local companies
take larger roles as buyers and investors, as
well as more competition for private equity
(PE) deals stemming from successful fund-
raising by Mexico- and region-focused funds.
As such, more deals are being carried out as
auctions, which is unusual in Mexico.”
The BBVA deal, completed in
November 2012, is an example of a Mexican
firm diversifying its revenue streams. “The
rationale of the purchase of the asset
management firm from BBVA was the
synergies due to economies of scale in this
business,” says Fernando Solis Soberón,
CEO of Long Term Investments at Banorte
and Chairman of Afore XXI Banorte.
“Additionally, it will also diversify the source
of income for the financial group, given the
increase in revenue from the commissions
obtained from managing the compulsory
retirement savings.”
The consumer segment in Mexico — Latin
America’s second largest — has emerged as a
more recent target for foreign investors. With
nine deals so far this year, it has seen more
activity than any other sector. The largest
announced deal is US beverage company
Constellation Brands’ US$2.9b acquisition of
Compania Cervecera de Coahuila in February.
Outright buys aren’t the only route to
market. In the late autumn of 2012, for
instance, global underwear retailer Triumph
International acquired a majority stake in
Mexican lingerie firm Vicky Form. Triumph
On the web
For more on entrepreneurship and growth in Mexico, read EY’s
The power of three at www.capitalinsights.info/mexico
Top three completed Mexican inbound deals, Oct 2012—13
Completion Target Buyer Deal value
JUN
2013 Grupo Modelo
Anheuser-Busch
InBev (Belgium)
US$20.1b
JUN
2013
Compania Cervecera
de Coahuila
Constellation Brands
(US)
US$2.9b
MAY
2013 ABA Seguros
ACE Limited
(Switzerland)
US$865m
Source: Mergermarket
30Number of inbound deals
in Mexico in 2013 up to
Q3 — the second-highest
number for five years
(Source: Mergermarket)
Investing
Raising
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
Mexico
Population	
116.2m (2013)
FDI	
US$12.7b (2012)
GDP	
US$1.2t (2012)
Source: CIA World Factbook;
US Embassy in Mexico
istock/Pingebat
wanted to enter the Mexican market, and saw the local
leadership position of the Vicky Form brand as a platform for
its own. For Vicky Form, the deal offers the chance to expand
internationally. As Vicky Form’s CEO José Zaga says: “With
this JV, we gain access to some of the world’s top commercial
intimate apparel brands and the unique opportunity to expand
the business model beyond Mexico. The partnership maintains
its original plans of further developing Vicky Form in the
Mexican markets and the region.” 
Building growth
The manufacturing sector boasts pedigree as an FDI magnet.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean notes that, in 2012, the sector was the strongest
investment draw (absorbing 56% of the total). Among the
main deals was Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau’s US$600m
investment to build a new structural steel plant in October.
Alongside this, the automotive sector recorded a
75% jump in FDI, to US$2.4b in 2012. Developed-market
automakers have laid down roots as Mexican factories have
established themselves in regional and global supply chains.
For instance, last year, Audi announced plans to open a new
plant in Mexico, which should begin producing cars in 2016.
A spokesperson for Audi told Capital Insights that: “Mexico
is an ideal location, strategically offering a favorable sandwich
position between North and South America.”
The decision to locate in Mexico is aimed at safeguarding
the automaker’s competitive position on global markets,
lowering its costs and increasing profit margins. And, it should
provide a competitive advantage with consumers. As Mexico
is part of several free-trade agreements,
it will be able to ship its cars duty free to the
US, Latin America and Europe. If, instead,
it had opted to build a production plant in the
US, it would have had to contend with a tariff
burden of 10%. The Mexican economy will
profit by Audi’s decision to set up its San José
Chiapa, with the creation of about 3,800 new
jobs. This will create a further 20,000 jobs
for the periphery, the suppliers, logistics and
service providers.
M&A activity in Mexico is in line with the
long-term FDI trend. Pablo Coballasi, who
heads corporate finance house PC Capital,
says: “There’s a correlation between
international cross-border M&A and FDI. A lot
of international investors are looking at the
macro trends. The fundamentals have given
them the confidence to come and expand
by making current operations larger, or
expanding within the market through M&A.”
According to Olivier Hache, Managing
Partner for EY’s Transaction Advisory
Services in Mexico and Central America,
some of the deals are driven by Mexico’s
position in the global supply chain,
particularly in the automotive industry.
“If you’re an automaker, you might decide
to have a supplier situated near your factory.
If that’s in Mexico, then the parts supplier
Mexico’s movers: looking beyond their borders
According to Banco de México, Mexican
firms invested US$25.6b outside the
country in 2012, 111% more than in
2011. Brimming with confidence, these
firms are now eyeing US and European
opportunities. For example, in April 2012,
loan provider Grupo Elektra bought
Advance America, the largest US payday
lender, for US$780m.
So what are Mexican firms looking
at when acquiring abroad? “Once, it
was only very large Mexican firms with
the capacity for outbound acquisitions,
but last year, Mexico exported more
FDI than it received — the first time this
has happened in five years,” says Pablo
Coballasi. “This reflects the greater
availability of liquidity in local markets
and the balance sheet strength of
Mexican corporates. Price is another
factor. Asset prices in Europe and the US
are cheap compared with previous years.”
This has led to global market leaders
with Mexican roots. “Cemex was a very
large consolidator in the industry and has
grown to have operations pretty much
around the world,” says Coballasi. “The
same is true for other large corporates,
such as América Móvil (AM). It set out to
expand not just within Latin America, but
also in Europe.” In August, for instance,
AM bid US$9.6b for the 70% of Dutch
telecom group KPN it doesn’t already own.
GettyImages/MarkDCallanan
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 13
Peter Harbula of prepaid services
provider Edenred discusses the
practicalities of investing in Mexico
T
he reason why Mexico is attractive to us is based on a number
of trends, but one key trend is the growing formalization of the
Mexican economy. The market has become more and more mature.
Compared with previous years, more companies are declaring their full
number of employees. As our services are meant for people on the official
payroll, this is a robust medium-term growth driver.
Mexico is a strong market that offers sustainable growth
opportunities, especially in light of its location and its close ties to the
US, and helped by its membership of the North American Free Trade
Agreement. There is good growth potential in the business-to-business
services sector, the area in which our company is active. Services are
growing very fast in Mexico.
We have been present in Mexico for 30 years. Investing in Mexico
is, in a way, not so different to more developed economies: the financial
and legal procedures are broadly similar, for instance. But there is a Latin
American touch in the importance given to personal contacts, face-to-face
meetings and establishing trust. Things agreed by handshake and verbal
agreements are matters that are regarded with high importance.
Mexico is one of our
top countries: our core
products in the country are
the food and meal vouchers,
as well as the expense
management solutions, for
corporate fleets. The meal
vouchers market is based
on a regulation under which
employers provide food and meal vouchers to their employees that exempt
both of them from taxes. Mexico contributes largely to our organic growth.
Viewpoint
Peter Harbula is Corporate Finance Director at Edenred
There is a Latin
American touch in
the importance given
to personal contacts
and establishing trust
has to be, too. This can sometimes be more about direct
investment than pure M&A,” says Hache.
The services sector has also sparked interest among
corporates. This year, Swiss insurer ACE Group completed a
deal for ABA Seguros, Mexico’s fourth-largest auto insurance
company, for US$865m. Mexico’s position as a bridge for the
wider Latin American market was a key factor here. After
the deal, Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer of ACE Limited, said that ABA Seguros’ reputation
and creativity was something “that can be leveraged across
Mexico and the Latin America region.”
Overcoming the obstacles
M&A in Mexico still poses challenges, though. One is the lack
of institutionalization within family-owned firms. “Mexican
companies are used to running things in a ‘family way’ and
are, therefore, not accustomed to bringing in new money
or giving away a slice of their business,” says Fernando de
Ovando, Senior Partner at the Mexico office of international
law firm Jones Day.
Such ownership can make them less transparent, posing
a challenge to buyers seeking to make large investments and
implement strategic changes. “Diligence and control issues
are key questions. Partnering with excellent international and
local advisors is a prerequisite,” says Del Pino.
There has also been growth in PE funds that prefer to take
on significant minority or controlling stakes while keeping local
partners involved. PE investment in Mexico has grown rapidly
in the last few years, with US$14.9b in capital having been
committed to PE investments since 2000. “That’s a pretty
sizeable pool of capital, and PE is going to become more and
more important as family business owners get more educated
about the benefits of having a PE partner,” says Coballasi.
How to ride the wave
For corporates looking to thrive in Mexico, here are three key
factors to consider before investing:
Get local know-how. “Before you get into a deal, you need an
advisor who knows the market and can help you not only with
the general structure of the deal, but also the cultural aspects
of doing a deal in Mexico,” says de Ovando.
Embed roots. Investors need to be sure that key shareholders
are involved early in the M&A process. “Once a deal is closed,
you are going to need a local management team and local
ownership to help guide you through the first years of the
operation. It’s key for the buyers to get to know the market
with locals, so that they can become experts themselves as
time passes,” says de Ovando.
Understand the system. Deal-makers must keep a close eye
on the specific set of factors unique to Mexico, such as foreign
ownership restrictions on certain industries. Tax and labor laws are also
key. Roderick Branch, a partner at Latham & Watkins, says: “Tax matters,
particularly the availability of applicable tax treaties, are key. Traditionally,
labor laws have posed a particularly difficult set of challenges. Formal
requirements inherent to Mexico’s civil law system, such as notarization and
public filings, need special attention that can affect structuring.”
While challenges such as ownership restrictions and legal differences
exist, for those prepared to persevere and set up in a rapidly growing, yet
mature, economy, such obstacles are well worth overcoming.
For further insight, please email editor@capitalinsights.info
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
© Gary Parker
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 15
The
bigCisco CFO Frank Calderoni explores the company’s
business transformation, discusses its portfolio and
partnership strategies, and reveals the key role of finance
T
ransformation is the name of the game for IT and
networking giant Cisco. While the company has
been a leader in the networking market for many
of its 29 years, the San Jose-based business is now
looking to become the world’s “number one IT company,”
according to CFO Frank Calderoni.
While this is certainly an ambitious target, Cisco has the
numbers to back it up. The company has had 10 consecutive
record quarters, and figures for Q2 2013 showed that order
growth was up across most sectors — for example, the US
enterprise (companies with over 1,000 employees) business
grew 9%, while commercial (smaller companies) rose by
12%. However, strong figures and ambitious targets do not
come easy — particularly in the ever-changing technology
sector. The company has had to evolve to meet the needs of
the marketplace and, since his succession to CFO in 2008,
Calderoni has been at the forefront of this transformation.
“First, we had to address how we’d continue to innovate
over the long term,” he says. “We needed to realign strategy
around core priorities — one of which was to prioritize our core
business of switching and routing. Another aspect was to look
at growth drivers for the next three to five years.”
The five growth areas that Cisco identified were data
center and cloud, mobility, security, software, and the services
market business. And in each of these, the predictions have
proved very much on the money. For example, technology
research group Gartner forecast that world security
technology and services would reach US$67.2b in 2013 —
up 8.7% year on year — while the cloud market would grow
by 19% to US$131b over the same period.
In recent years, in each of these five segments, Cisco
has posted strong figures. For example, in Q2, wireless
Preserving
Investing
Optimizing
Raising
mobility was up by 32%. And nowhere has the success of the
transformation strategy been more apparent than with cloud
computing. “In [this] space, we have been very successful in a
very short time. We have gone from no share to being number
two on the data center side in just a couple of years, and we
see that continuing,” says Calderoni.
Everything counts
However, the key for the company, he says, is “to bring it all
together around a solution for customers. We didn’t just want
individual products, but solutions built around a technological
framework that gives customers a full end-to-end experience.”
Cisco’s Internet of Everything (IoE) is the cornerstone
of this new strategy. The idea of the IoE is a networked
connection of people, processes, data and “things”, which is
being facilitated by technology transitions such as increased
mobility, cloud computing and the importance of big data.
“From a business perspective, connecting multiple devices
is the next stage of the opportunity for us,” says Calderoni.
The importance of the project cannot be overstated. A report
by Cisco’s IoE Value Index predicted that it would enable global
businesses to generate US$613b in profits in 2013.
When it came to assessing how to set Cisco’s priorities
within its new strategy, the CFO turned to the three key
stakeholders in the business.
“The number one priority was to understand the customer
and ensure we met [their] requirements from a technical point
of view,” Calderoni says. “Then, we needed to ensure we had
the right base of skills and talent within the company, from an
employee perspective. And the third crucial aspect was the
investors. We had to make sure we had the ability for them to
invest in Cisco and get the right returns.
switch
Leading by example
The finance function has been spearheading
the march to make Cisco “the number one
IT company”. When the company embarked
on the new strategy around three years ago,
Calderoni set up a new model that saw the
business emphasize profitability over rapid
revenue growth. The long-term revenue
model was reset to between 5% and 7%
compound annual growth rate — a shift from
the historic goals of 12% to 17% — while profit
targets were set at 7% to 9%.
To achieve this, the CFO had to alter
how finance worked within Cisco
so it was closely allied to the new
strategy. “We made a number of
changes within finance to help the
company be more successful in
the transformation,” he says.
“We invested heavily in our
financial data infrastructure
as the first step in our finance
transformation. Having a common
source of information is critical.
“The second part was to see how we could be more
effective in providing and driving value in the company to
partners that we want to work with inside Cisco. This meant
having a seat at the table to enable decisions to be made
based on the data available. A key part of this was trying
to uplevel the skills within the finance organization so they
gained a greater appreciation of the business as a whole.”
At the same time, the company also launched its
Accelerated Cisco Transformation (ACT) initiative — an
overarching framework encompassing a variety of cost
initiatives that looked at both product cost and operating
expense, and the ways that Cisco could be more efficient
when managing these within the company.
Portfolio polishing
One of the most imperative parts of the transformation
was ensuring that the business portfolio was aligned with
the new strategy. “We needed to understand the long-term
implications from a financial return perspective on certain
investments and divestments. We had to make significant
trade-offs,” says Calderoni.
As part of this approach, over the past three years, Cisco
has divested its consumer products, including, in January this
year, the sale of its Linksys brand of home routers to Belkin.
The “trade-offs” reduced Cisco’s annual run rate by US$1b
and were the catalyst that allowed the company to invest in
areas that focused more clearly on the new direction, as well
as giving a stronger return to shareholders.
When it comes to investing the company’s capital,
whether it is organic or inorganic, the first priority is always
innovation, according to Calderoni.
“We do this via both build and buy,” he says. “On the build
side, we have around 25,000 engineers helping to invest in
innovation for current and future products. We spend around
US$6b a year overall in research and development.
“On the buy side, we look at where there is a potential
acquisition that would help build the portfolio in certain areas.
1984 19901987 1 9 9 1
Cisco receives funding
from venture capital
firm Sequoia Capital
Cisco opens offices
in the UK and France.
Market capitalization
reaches US$1b
Cisco founded by two
computer scientists from
Stanford University
Cisco goes public in February on
the NASDAQ. Gains market
capitalization of US$224m
Being CFO
Frank Calderoni explains
the three-part approach to
being an effective CFO
First, there is the fiduciary side,
ensuring that the numbers
are recorded accurately and we meet regulatory
requirements. The second side is outreach, not only
externally but also to leaders in the company, so they
understand what motivates the investors. The third
is engaging with business leaders and customers in
understanding strategy, enabling us to execute and
provide insight from a financial perspective to help
inform that strategy, aligned to a financial set of goals.
lCiscocGettyImages/JohnMoorerUIGviaGettyImages/ViewPictures
17
1992 1993 1995 1996
Cisco makes its first acquisition — Crescendo
Communications and its 100-Mbps Copper
Distributed Data Interface technology
Cisco opens offices in
Beijing and Amsterdam,
while making a further
seven acquisitions
Cisco opens offices
in Toronto and Tokyo
Cisco makes further acquisitions
in the form of Combinet, Internet
Junction, Grand Junction and
Network Translation
We have been fairly aggressive acquirers for a number of
years. Since our inception, we have done 165 acquisitions.”
In the last 12 months alone, Cisco has bought
13 companies, primarily in the software and services
space. These have included the announcements of deals
for UK-based specialist 3G provider Ubiquisys in March for
US$300m, and US cybersecurity company Sourcefire
for US$2.7b in July.
While the volume of acquisitions may be relatively high,
the criteria for choosing each business are still demanding,
according to the CFO. “Our acquisitions are made around the
business strategy and areas of growth. We ensure that we are
investing heavily in those areas that deliver innovation and the
right technology for our customers. And we also have to make
sure that these [businesses] will deliver appropriate returns to
our investors over a longer period of time.”
Sourcefire is a good example of an acquisition that meets
Cisco’s specifications. “First, it fits into one of our growth
areas — security. We have a comprehensive security portfolio
already, but we felt Sourcefire would give us an even stronger
platform to make available to our customers,” says Calderoni.
“There are a tremendous number of synergies between
Sourcefire and Cisco in the mobile and cloud environment,
and that is where you have the most exposure with security.”
Staying on target
From targeting to integrating a new business, Calderoni
reveals that the company follows a step-by-step acquisition
process that allows Cisco to really get to know its targets
before closing the deal. “If we identify a company that is in
line with our strategy, a business development team will start
an engagement to discuss whether there is a mutual interest,”
says Calderoni. “Then we have a formal CFO commit process:
a pre-commit, a commit and a post-commit.”
He explains that the pre-commit is the initial analysis
looking at specific areas of interest, allowing Cisco to make its
own evaluation as to the pros and cons of the target.
The commit process comes
when there is an agreement
within Cisco by the business
leader who has that
responsibility along with the
business development team.
This agreement is about the
financial objectives as the
company moves forward with
that acquisition. Then, Cisco
makes an agreement to that transaction.
Finally, it has post-acquisition reviews to
ensure it is meeting the expectations it
agreed to in the commit.
Joined-up thinking
Integrating a new business is tough at
the best of times — so integrating 13 over
12 months could present a serious challenge
to a company that is already going through
a transformation. Therefore, the integration
process has to start early and cover all the
bases. “We have a very formal integration
process. As part of the commit process, we
work with the business leader of the target,”
says the CFO. “This process lays everything
out in a very comprehensive plan over
weeks, months, even years, to ensure we
do all aspects of the integration process and
meet all requirements. As part of the post-
commit, we ensure that we are meeting those
requirements on a regular basis and we also
use it as a vehicle to identify if there are any
issues, to help solve them.”
One of the key elements that is built
into the process is culture. When it comes to
post-merger integration, companies will often
©GaryParker
lBloombergviaGettyImagesrBloombergviaGettyImages
focus on the financials and operations,
while culture is more of an afterthought.
Yet, incompatible business cultures can
rupture even the most secure of deals.
“We first evaluate culture in the
pre-commit process and determine
whether there is an alignment to Cisco
culture,” says Calderoni. “We ask whether
the target is focused on the customer,
whether they are innovative and if they
are flexible and agile. We need to do
a comprehensive review on cultural
alignment because this is potentially one
of the key areas of failure.”
Going global
As part of the investment and acquisition
strategy, the company is broadening its
reach across different countries. In the
past year, it has bought companies in
the Czech Republic (Cognitive Security),
Israel (Intucell) and Austria (SolveDirect),
among others. And Cisco is extremely
active across emerging markets (EMs),
in particular, India and China.
And, despite order growth slowing
down across these markets — from 13%
a quarter ago to 8% in Q4 FY 2013 — the
CFO feels that EMs still have a lot to offer.
“If you look at the last five years, we have
been investing more heavily in the EMs
and we will continue to do so,” he says.
Again, figures show that continued
investment in these regions is a wise
policy. According to the Cisco Visual
Networking Index, China’s internet
traffic is set to grow by 600% in the next
two years, while in India, global mobile
data traffic is likely to increase 13-fold
between 2012 and 2017.
When it comes to making moves in
developing markets, Cisco takes a mixed
approach to growth — buying, building
organically and creating partnerships.
“We invest on a case-by-case
basis. We have invested directly in
some countries by doing acquisitions
and created a number of successful
partnerships in EMs,” says the CFO. “The
key for a successful partnership is where
we can complement each other. And it
needs to work on both sides — where
joining forces is the most effective way
of meeting customers’ needs. For those
partners interested in working with Cisco,
we bring access to new customers and
new markets, and partners are able to
leverage the global scale that a company
like Cisco has.”
Recent EM partnership deals have
been announced, including a joint
venture with China Electronic Software
Information in December 2012, and, in
April this year, an investment was made
in an Indian company, Apalya, which is
a pioneer and leader in mobile TV and
video streaming.
A taxing issue
While Cisco is still making acquisitions
in the US, the company has stated it is
more hesitant about further purchases
on home soil until the US corporate tax
code is changed. Currently, the US has
1998 20042000 2006
Cisco becomes the world’s
most valuable company
in terms of market
capitalization (US$569b)
Cisco announces plans to invest
over US$265m in Saudi Arabia
and US$275m in Turkey over
the next five years
Cisco becomes the first company to achieve
market capitalization of US$100b in 14 years
and performs nine further acquisitions
1
7
2
3
4
5
6
Cisco invests US$32m in a Chinese research
and development center. The company
also pledges US$50m to help Korean SMEs
adopt and deploy networking technologies
Lessons learned
Frank Calderoni outlines the rules
that have defined Cisco’s success
Customers are all-important. You need to be
focused on customer needs and then deliver
on those needs.
You have to have an ongoing two-way dialogue
with shareholders. Find out what their interests
are and align them with what you are trying to do.
Ensure you have the right base of skills and
talent from an employment standpoint,
especially during times of transition and change.
To be successful, you need to understand the
pace of change not only in the technology
industry, but within the company.
Macro environments are always going to
change. We have a strategy that is
focused long-term and independent of
the macro environment.
Information is critical and having a common
source of information is vital. We have invested
heavily in our financial data infrastructure.
Finance needs to be integral to the business.
It is one responsibility to report numbers,
but a bigger responsibility is to be an effective
business partner internally to drive and build
value for the company.
GettyImages/JustinSullivan/Cisco
19
the highest corporate tax
rate of all OECD nations
at 39.1% — and Calderoni
feels this has to change, not only for the good of Cisco, but for
the good of the US.
“The US tax code needs to be modified. It is important for
any US-based global company who wishes to be competitive
on a global scale to have a tax policy that helps support that,”
he says. “What we believe is there are three things that need
to be done. First, the tax rate needs to be lowered. Then
there needs to be a more globally competitive structure that
provides companies with flexibility for bringing in and moving
cash around, and, finally, the code needs to be simplified to
eliminate a lot of the tax preference items that currently exist.
“If we can do these, this could be a win-win for businesses
and for the US. A tax code like this could provide incentives
for employment and economic growth.”
However, government policy is not something that changes
overnight, even when there is a good business case for it.
Calderoni believes the key is communication. “We will help
where we can with knowledge we have gained on the global
landscape and the knowledge we have on tax,” he says. “We
need to work with members of the US Congress, as well as
within the administration and other forums that have looked
at tax reform, to make sure we are very visible in providing
information that is helpful in moving efforts forward.”
Investor interest
However, investing, whether at home or abroad, is very much
dependent on shareholder support. Mindful of this, as part of
Cisco’s capital allocation strategy, the CFO prioritized share
buybacks and increased dividends for investors. Since fiscal
year 2002, the company has returned approximately US$80b
through its buyback program. Equally impressively, in the
past two years, it has increased the dividend by around 180%.
Why did the CFO choose this course of action? “We listened to
investors and asked what they were looking for as a return,”
2008 2012 2013 2013
Cisco pays US$5b to acquire pay TV industry
software developer NDS Group
Cisco announces seven
acquisitions to date, including
cybersecurity company
Sourcefire for US$2.7b
Cisco announces AED5.8b
(US$1.6b) five-year ICT
investment plan for the
United Arab Emirates
Cisco launches its Internet of Everything (IoE)
Value Index Study, which predicts that US$14.4t
of value will be at stake over the next decade,
driven by connections through IoE
he says. “We decided that, on an annual
basis, a minimum of 50% of our free cash
flow would be returned through either a
buyback or dividend. And, by talking to
investors, we found that more preferred a
dividend to a buyback, so we rebalanced
more on the dividend but continued to
support the buyback.”
A bright future
A transformational strategy, targeted capital
allocation and clear communication with
key stakeholders have put Cisco in a strong
position to achieve its ambitious long-term
target. And the CFO is understandably
upbeat about the long-term future. “There is
a tremendous amount of opportunity in the
market, and I feel we are probably in the best
position to participate in that opportunity
going forward,” says Calderoni. “I hope our
continued significant investment will allow us
to become the number one IT provider in the
future and, at the same time, get the right
return for shareholders.”
The CFO
Frank Calderoni
Age: 56
CFO at Cisco: Since 2008
Educated: Fordham University,
New York; Pace University, New York
Previous positions: Frank joined Cisco in 2004
from QLogic, where he was the Senior Vice
President (SVP) and CFO. Prior to that, he was
SVP and CFO for SanDisk. Previously, he spent
21 years at IBM and was promoted to VP prior
to taking on two CFO roles.
Cisco
Founded: 1984
Employees: 75,049
Countries: 165
Market capitalization: US$123.4b
(as of 21 October 2013)
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
Key insights
•	 Increased demand,
high oil prices and
steady production
have increased sector
confidence, but
challenges lie ahead.
•	 Managing return on
capital invested is
a major issue for
the industry, despite
high prices and
rising demand.
•	 Corporates need
to keep focused on
upstream core assets
to increase returns.
•	 Partnerships,
investment in new
technology and a
focus on quality,
as well as scale of
production, are
fundamentals for
the future success of
the industry.
A
t first glance, oil and gas companies seem to be
doing better than ever. Production is running at
near record levels. According to the BP Statistical
Review of World Energy 2013, the world
produced 86.1b barrels of oil in 2012 — a 15% increase on total
production 10 years ago.
At the same time, oil prices have averaged a historically
high level of US$111 per barrel for the past two years,
according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
A decade ago, oil was priced at just US$25 a barrel.
The high pricing is a result of growing demand. According
to BP, consumption increased to a record high of 89.7 billion
barrels last year, a 14% increase on the 78.4 billion barrels
consumed in 2002. Strong growth in emerging markets (EM)
has driven the increase, with a rise in consumption of 3.3%
in countries that are not members of the Organization for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
Oil and gas executives have taken heart from this
backdrop of increasing demand, high oil prices and steady
production. “For the bulk of the last decade, we have been
in an environment where oil prices were rising quite quickly
and gas prices were either flat or rising,” says Andy Brogan,
Global Oil & Gas Transactions Leader at EY. “Fields that
came on stream when prices were still low are economical at
those lower prices and are still producing. When the oil price
is trading above those levels, the energy
companies are making money, and that
underpins confidence.”
This is shown by EY’s latest Capital
Confidence Barometer, in which 58% of
respondents were focused on growth —
up from 41% in October 2012.
This underlying industry confidence
supported a record year for M&A in 2012.
According to EY’s Global Oil and Gas
Transactions Review 2012, deals worth
US$402b were closed in the oil & gas
sector last year, significantly higher than
the US$337b in 2011. There were 92
transactions exceeding US$1b in 2012,
compared with 71 in 2011, a further sign
of confidence as corporates demonstrated a
willingness to invest large sums in long-term
projects. Major deals include the acquisition
by CNOOC Ltd, a China National Offshore
Oil Corporation subsidiary, of offshore group
Nexen for US$15.1b.
Despite a falloff in M&A activity in
2013 (as there has been in many sectors
due to continued economic uncertainty —
The oil and gas sector is
changing. Capital Insights
explores how corporates
are seeking growth
by consolidating
and innovating
Fueling
growth
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 21
Investing
Optimizing
Raising
for more, see “The big picture,” page 32) and a cautious
approach to additional investment by corporates, there
have still been substantial deals. These include US company
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold buying offshore driller
Plains Exploration and Production for US$10.8b in May,
while in April, US company Hess sold its Russian assets to the
country’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, for US$2b.
“The industry has been blessed with quite a long period
of relative stability with the commodity price at reasonably
strong levels,” says Jon Clark, UK Leader for Oil & Gas
Transaction Advisory Services at EY. “That has helped to
build balance sheets in larger companies, but it has also made
people feel more comfortable about making long-term capital
commitments and investment decisions.”
Capital constraints
However, despite the positives, the industry faces challenges.
Managing return on capital is one of the major issues
with which the industry has been confronted, even in an
environment where prices and demand have stayed high.
A May 2013 Citigroup study, Investing for Commodity
Uncertainty, found that the return on capital employed for
30 of the world’s largest oil companies fell to 9% in 2012.
Between 2005 and 2008, figures show that return on capital
averaged over 15%. That return could drop to 8% by 2015,
if Brent crude prices fall below the US$100-
per-barrel threshold.
“There is no doubt that it is more costly
to produce resources today than it was 20
years ago,” says Kevin Forbes, Partner at
specialist oil and gas technology investor
Epi-V. “There is a huge cost differential
between a relatively simple drilling operation
in Saudi Arabia and drilling under 10,000
feet of water in a deep-water project.”
Finding new sources
Discovering and producing reserves in more
hostile conditions has been one of the major
contributing factors to the pressure on return
on capital.
Government-backed national oil
companies (NOCs) now control the bulk of
the world’s oilfields — according to the BP
Statistical Review, countries outside of the
OECD now control 85% of the world’s proven
reserves. A recent example of the growing
strength of NOCs can be seen in China’s
CNPC acquiring a 20% stake in Offshore
Area 4 in Mozambique from Italy’s Eni for
1.1mbarrels per day is
the forecast global
demand growth for
2014, according to
the International
Energy Agency (IEA)
Getty Images/Arnulf Husmo
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
US$4.2b in July 2013. International oil
companies, which used to control more
than four-fifths of global reserves before
the rise of NOCs, have had to look to
difficult-to-access, deep-water assets and
unconventional sources of energy, such as
oil locked in shale and tar sands.
For example, in September this year, US
company Ensco took delivery of an ultra-
deep-water drilling ship, ENSCO-DS7, which
is set to become its fourth rig working in the
West Africa deep-water market.
A 2013 Goldman Sachs analysis of
Europe’s largest oil and gas companies
demonstrates how challenging it has been
for some groups to improve return on capital
when the sites are so difficult and technical.
The investment bank found that 18% of the
capital invested by Europe’s largest oil and
gas companies has gone on projects that
need the oil price to be US$80 or higher just
to break even.
Making the most of it
Even though unconventional and deep-
water oil and gas assets are pricier and
more challenging to develop, exploiting
these resources is essential if the world is to
continue meeting the mounting demand
for hydrocarbons.
According to the International Energy
Agency (IEA), the development of deep-
water reserves, oil sands and shale gas
is forecast to increase production from
outside OPEC to 53 million barrels a day
by 2015, up from fewer than 49 million
barrels a day in 2011. By
2035, the IEA forecasts
that unconventional gas will
account for half the increase in
global gas production.
Unconventional resources
have become key for oil
companies, as they provide
access to new reserves that are
not controlled by the dominant
NOCs. Many of these projects
can be operated profitably
thanks to improvements in
technology, and supplies are
plentiful. The EIA estimates that the world holds reserves of
345 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil and
7,299 trillion cubic feet of shale gas.
This is a significant source of new assets for international
oil companies, easing pressure to replace reserves.
“The shale plays have made a very significant
contribution to our business. These assets … provide
tremendous optionality for ConocoPhillips,” said Matt Fox,
Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production at
US oil group ConocoPhillips, in its 2012 annual report. “They
are resource rich, with years of scalable drilling inventory.”
Brogan adds that another advantage of unconventional
resources is that they provide oil companies with greater
capital flexibility than plays in deep-water or traditional wells.
“If you are in huge offshore assets operated by a
consortium, [this] usually means that you are in assets that
have very long lead times and very little flexibility about the
capital you deploy once you have made the decision to go.
Unconventionals are a good alternative to that, because you
can scale those up and down quickly,” says Brogan.
The only way is upstream
The focus on return on
capital among the oil
companies, coupled
with moves to make
plays for deep-water and
unconventional assets, have
been the major drivers of
oil and gas M&A recently.
These priorities mean
that the largest growth in investment is in upstream assets
(operations involving exploration and production stages),
where deal value increased by 68% to US$284b, according
to EY’s Global Oil and Gas Transactions Review 2012.
Upstream deals have continued to dominate deal activity in
On the web
For further insights watch our exclusive video on the oil and gas
industry at www.capitalinsights.info/oilandgas
Top three completed oil and gas M&A deals, October 2012—13
Completion Target Buyer Deal value
MAR
2013
TNK-BP Holdings
(50% stake)*
Rosneft Oil Company OAO US$31.1b
MAR
2013
TNK-BP Holdings
(50% stake)**
Rosneft Oil Company OAO US$28b
FEB
2013 Nexen Inc CNOOC Ltd US$15.1b
Source: Mergermarket *BP stake **AAR Consortium stake
Advantage now
comes from exceptional
capability, rather than
exceptional scale
Carl Henric-Svanberg, Chairman, BP
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 23
2
3
4
5
1
2013, with Royal Dutch Shell’s US$6.7b buyout of Repsol’s
liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets one of the standout deals
of the year. Activity in the downstream market (operations
that take place after production through to retail), by
contrast, has been slower, with downstream deal volumes
falling 6% to 162 deals in 2012, and deal values staying flat
at around US$42b.
Oil companies have been eager to sell off downstream
operations and focus on potentially more lucrative upstream
plays. Examples from 2012 include Exxon Mobil selling its
Japanese retail, refining and storage division, TonenGeneral
Sekiyu, for US$3.9b, Statoil selling a 54% stake in its road-
transport fuel retailer to Alimentation Couche-Tard, and BP
selling its Carson refinery and Southern California refining
and marketing business to Tesoro Corporation. Meanwhile,
in September 2013, US oil company Chevron agreed to sell
its downstream assets in Pakistan.
“Downstream assets tend to have a lower unlevered
return than upstream assets, so you have seen companies
selling those assets or, at the most extreme end, completely
splitting downstream and upstream,” says Brogan.
The road ahead
In a changing world, corporates in the oil and gas sector need
to bear in mind the following factors when trying to compete:
Return on capital. Although the oil price is trading at near-
record highs and demand is increasing, return on capital is still
a key area of focus as resources become more difficult and
expensive to produce.
“As the rocks that companies are producing oil from
become progressively harder to get at or are more remote,
and the focus on health, safety and environmental concerns
becomes even greater, then the cost of developing them
increases. Processes have become more technical and
difficult. Deep-water is more expensive than shallow-water,
and unconventional resources are more expensive than
conventional,” says Brogan.
Partner up. Partnerships have always played a large part in
the industry, but the fact that many oil and gas fields have
become more technically challenging to operate and require
large capital investment has prompted an increase in joint
ventures (JV) and strategic alliances between oil and gas
companies to mitigate risk.
“We are now entering a third era, where cooperation
between partners is the key to unlocking the resources found
in the most challenging locations,” said BP Chairman Carl-
Henric Svanberg in the company’s latest annual report.
A recent example of this is the JV deal announced in June
2013, between Pangean Energy and PetroTech Oil and Gas,
which saw the companies enter a contract to buy mineral
rights in the huge Bakken shale oil reserves in North Dakota.
Upstream deals. The record M&A level in 2012 — particularly
in upstream activity — demonstrates the importance of using
acquisitions as a tool for breaking into new geographies and
taking control of unconventional resources such as shale or
deep-water. And, while 2013 has been quieter for M&A, there
is reason for optimism. The second quarter of 2013 saw an
improvement in upstream deals — although it was a modest
one. According to Derrick Petroleum Services, volumes rose
from 117 deals in Q1 to 141 in Q2, with value also rising from
US$20.9b to US$24.9b. The indication is that the sector is
still focusing on its core activities.
Upstream deals are extremely key to positioning oil
companies to achieve the best return on capital. “In an
environment where capital is more constrained than in the
past, companies have rightly focused on where they can get
the best returns on that capital. Traditionally, the upstream
segment of the market is where bigger returns on capital are
possible,” says Clark.
Invest in technology. Advances in technology have been the
key enabler for companies developing difficult-to-reach assets.
Without technological developments, production on many
assets operating today would be impossible. This is set to be
an ongoing theme — investing in technology, either internally
or through acquisitions, will allow companies to produce with
greater efficiency and open up new resources in the future.
“Oil companies are making returns on capital on difficult
assets, which they could never have made economical
20 years ago,” says Forbes. “Given the recent technological
breakthroughs, there is every chance the industry can
continue to open up hard-to-access reserves in the future.”
Quality not quantity. Producing as much as possible used
to be the main focus for international oil companies. Now,
with the focus on return on capital, quality, as well as scale
of production, is the priority. “For BP, advantage now comes
from exceptional capability rather than exceptional scale.
Our future is about high-margin, high-quality production, not
simply volume,” said BP’s Svanberg in the annual report.
Indeed, technical ability and high margins are likely to
remain crucial, as oil companies rely more on deep-water and
unconventional reserves to replace oil stocks and meet the
world’s ever-increasing energy needs.
For further insight, please email editor@capitalinsights.info
Oil and gas in numbers
405.6b
Cubic meters of natural
gas imported into
Western Europe in
2012, a fall of 2.2%
year-on-year.
Source: Opec
1.8%
The growth in
global primary
oil consumption
in 2012.
Source: BP Statistical
Review
1m
Barrels a day
growth in US oil
production, the
largest in the world,
in 2012.
Source: BP Statistical Review
23.9%
Natural gas’s share of global
primary energy consumption in 2012.
Source: BP
Statistical
Review
10.2m
Barrels a day
produced by
Saudi Arabia in
August — the highest
on IEA record.
Source: IEA
EY/Shutterstock/istock
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
All the
right
elements
What does it take to get due
diligence right and make sure your
deal is the best it can be?
C
hief executives received a severe warning this
year about the risk inherent in M&A activity.
In January, mining giant Rio Tinto revealed
multibillion dollar writedowns on its 2011 purchase
of Mozambique coal explorer Riversdale Mining. This had
been put down to a lack of infrastructure oversight. Indeed,
even Rio itself admitted to overestimating the challenges.
“In Mozambique, the development of infrastructure to
support the coal assets [was] more challenging than Rio Tinto
originally anticipated,” it said in a statement at the time.
This type of situation highlights the often unseen variables
during and after a deal. Mindful of this, a thorough and
integrated due diligence (DD) process is more vital than ever
in today’s volatile economic environment, whether corporates
are doing deals in developed or emerging markets (EM).
“You need to have an investigative mindset and be
clear on the investment thesis,” says Steve Ivermee,
EMEIA Transaction Support Leader at EY. “You need to
be professionally skeptical without being negative. You
have to be able to identify and quantify risk; few profitable
opportunities come at zero risk.”
It’s all about value
The fastest-growing corporates will be those that focus on
the opportunities for creating value through acquisitions. And
that means putting value creation right at the heart of DD.
“Companies such as GE and Cisco, which do a lot of
acquisitions, have a value creation approach built into their
mentality,” says William Gole, co-author of Due Diligence:
an M&A Value Creation Approach. “One of the most difficult
problems encountered when evaluating acquisitions is
estimating potential value-creating synergies.”
Key insights
•	 Value creation needs
to be at the heart of
the due diligence (DD)
process and corporates
need to explore the
potential synergies
early in the process.
•	 A fully-integrated
approach to DD is
vital. Areas such as
human resources
(HR) and information
technology (IT), where
relevant, should not be
overlooked as they can
enhance value creation.
•	 Taking a co-ordinated
approach can ensure
that important aspects
of the process are
not overlooked.
•	 DD differs markedly in
emerging markets —
an even greater focus
on areas such as tax
and legal compliance
is needed in order to
successfully complete
a transaction.
•	 DD should be ongoing.
Governance must not
stop on signing.
For instance, nearly half of respondents in
EY’s 2012 Global M&A tax survey and trends
report said one of the main factors affecting
the delivery of post-deal tax synergies was
that the tax function wasn’t brought into the
deal early enough. As such, they are denied
the chance to identify these synergies.
This is particularly salient in markets
where growth is scarce.“Given the low-growth
environment in many mature markets,” says
Ivermee, “deal-makers need to be clear about
how synergies and operational efficiencies
are going to be delivered.”
Getting integrated
The key to completing DD that identifies
these opportunities, and then seizes them,
is to approach the process in an integrated
fashion. While corporates must always delve
deeply into the financial and operational side
DD (for five key steps, see “Covering your
bases,” p26), a more integrated method
allows other key areas to be analyzed. This
means performing DD, where relevant, on
the target’s culture, regulatory environment,
intellectual property, HR, management,
IT infrastructure and corporate social
responsibility record.
For example, the importance of HR
issues should not be overlooked. A 2012
report, Human Capital Risk in Mergers and
Acquisitions, produced for the Canadian
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 25
Financial Executives Research Foundation, found that 87% of
those companies that were very successful or fairly successful
in M&A activity identified key talent to retain during the DD
process (87% and 85%, respectively) while only 58% of less
successful companies did this.
IT is another area in which many corporates can improve
in the DD process. EY’s 2011 IT as a driver of M&A success
report showed that just half of respondents conduct separate
IT DD on deals, while only 21% of corporates consider
IT-related issues during the valuation process.
The issue with many deals is that these areas don’t get
probed thoroughly enough because the DD operation either
hasn’t been set up properly or the vendor does not allow the
buyer to investigate these issues to an optimum level. If the
latter is the case, the buyer needs to have a three-point plan.
First, they should focus on issues that need to be properly
understood and evidenced. Second, the buyer must be clear
on what is non-negotiable about its DD needs, and finally, they
can take calculated risks on certain topics.
For those in the former camp, they could do worse
than take lessons from one FTSE 250 company, with
which Ivermee has worked closely, that has performed
several successful acquisitions. The business starts its DD
by bringing together all the key players from its operating
divisions and cross-corporate functional units, such as HR,
tax and accounting, as well as its CEO and CFO. Alongside
external advisors, they spend a day discussing the potential
acquisition. The meeting achieves many objectives, according
to Ivermee, who has taken part as an advisor.
“You get everyone on the same page as to what’s on
the CEO’s and CFO’s minds,” he says. “Everyone is clear
about the corporate risk appetite and investment thesis and
what that means for their areas of focus in the DD process
that ensues. During the meeting, we also find the linkages
between the workstreams that need to take place during
DD. The whole process starts off with good communication
between everyone involved. It’s better than having separate
DD activities reporting into a central point and relying on that
central point to spot the connections between the different
streams, which they don’t always do.”
Creativity is the cure
A creative and co-ordinated DD process can overcome the
‘box-ticking’ that often leads to important aspects being
overlooked. “Typically, if there is malfeasance within the
business, it’s going to be designed to avoid the normal means
of detection,” says Charles M. Elson, Director of the John L.
Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University
of Delaware. “That’s why the checklist mentality is a problem.
If you’re creative, you think around the checklist and you’re
more likely to come up with issues.”
In addition, this approach also makes it easier to cope
with collating and analyzing the volume of information the
DD team uncovers. “The cure for this problem is clarity of
scope for the DD,” says Jonny Myers, a Partner at the law
firm Clifford Chance. “You must create a detailed scope and
a timetable, and set up reporting lines with a point person
co-ordinating the work.”
And DD should not just be about looking backwards. James
Grebey, author of Operations Due Diligence, feels that it’s vital
to explore the target’s potential. “Good operations DD should be
a full enterprise-wide assessment, not just past performance.
It should explore issues such as personnel, production
capability, and infrastructure management,” he says.
This can be seen in eBay’s purchase of PayPal in 2002
for US$1.5b. At the time, eBay CEO Meg Whitman spoke of
the potential synergies. “Together, we can improve the user
experience and make online trading more compelling,” she
said. “We can also capture greater value from the e-commerce
opportunities occurring both on and off our site.” Eleven years
later, PayPal’s Q2 2013 revenues are US$1.6b, growing over
a fifth year on year, and represented 42% of eBay’s entire
revenues for that period.
Preserving
Investing
of respondents noted themselves
as effective at handling DD.
This figure was just 17% in the US.
47%
17% (Source: Clifford Chance, Cross-border
M&A: Perspectives on a changing world)
©iStock.com/Steve Cole
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
Emerging issues
When it comes to DD in EM deals, an even
more thorough approach must be taken.
A 2013 survey by Mergermarket and
Merrill DataSite entitled The future of M&A
in the Americas, found that nearly 40%
of respondents felt that DD in EMs would
become more difficult in the coming 12
months. The Asia-Pacific and Middle East
and North Africa regions were picked out as
the regions where DD would require more
attention than usual.
In EMs, it is widely acknowledged that
both corporates and private equity (PE)
buyers need to conduct weightier DD into tax,
financial and legal areas. However, according
to the aforementioned Mergermarket survey,
these can be the most challenging aspects
of the DD process. Seventy percent of
respondents expected legal compliance to
be the most significant challenge for buyers,
with the availability of relevant financial and
operating data coming second (58%).
Covering your bases
EY’s Charles Honnywill outlines five vital steps that
corporates need to take when carrying out financial
and operational due diligence
This highlights the need for companies to rely on advisers
with local expertise to provide them with a knowledgeable,
on-the-ground assessment of the risks.
“You don’t know how the market will develop, and you
may not have comparable companies against which your
deals should be judged,” says Konstanze Nardi, Partner at
EY’s German member firm. “Everything is new, you must be
alert and focus on what is critical for the investment thesis to
get the value out of the deal.”
Although financial and tax DD are paramount, acquirers
still need to take a detailed and integrated approach. This will
give them a better understanding of the target, including its
reputation, political connections and how it deals with issues
such as corruption.
Whether an acquisition is happening in a developed or
an emerging market, DD is a vital part of the M&A process.
It can open up new avenues for growth, but it must be an
ongoing process. As Ivermee says: “The best transactions
are the ones in which a company is constantly reassessing
why they’re doing the deal, and doing that at frequent stages
throughout the DD.”
For further insight, please email editor@capitalinsights.info
On the web
For more on due diligence, watch our exclusive video with EY professionals
at www.capitalinsights.info/duediligence
Charles Honnywill
is European Head
of Sell Side Services,
Transaction Advisory
Services, EY
The equity case. Focus on the return on
equity that the acquisition is expected to
generate. The equity case leads to a series
of key issues that should drive the scope
and focus of the DD. In practice, too many
corporates arrange the DD around the
people that are involved in the process
(and the particular issues that they
see from their areas of responsibility).
Corporates need to investigate the
issues that will determine whether the
acquisition meets the equity case.
Make sense of cash flows. Corporates
often focus on profit, less on cashflow.
Remember that profit is the result of
accounting policies and practices, so
it is often subjective. Cash is not an
accountant’s “construct.” When the DD is
done, can you articulate how cash flows
through the business and correlates to the
claimed profit levels?
Focus on the top line. Corporates often
focus on costs and balance sheet risks
in the business, but many DD processes
fail to fully evidence the reasons for, and
drivers of, revenue and margins. Detail at a
product and customer level is critical.
Test the deal “structures.” There are five
questions that need attention during DD:
What are the key commercial agreements?
How will the acquisition fit operationally?
What is the financial structure and what are
the implications for “day one” financing,
completion accounts and ongoing working
capital? What is the tax plan and the
legal structure to deliver it? What are the
regulatory constructs that the deal may
need to meet for oversight bodies?
Govern well. Governance over the DD
process must not stop on signing. From
then until completion, value continues to be
at risk or available to the alert buyer. Well-
drilled sellers will catch out the buyer that
loses focus.
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 27
© Paul Heartfield
After a tough few years, it seems the IPO window has reopened. This is
good news for some of the largest private equity-backed companies
A
s the macroeconomic backdrop
slowly improves, so the window
for initial public offerings (IPOs)
has reopened, with Europe in
particular seeing a warming of investor
sentiment toward new offerings after a big
chill. The first half of this year saw 306 IPOs
globally, raising US$57.8b, according to EY’s
quarterly publication, Private equity, public
exits. The EMEA region witnessed 66 IPOs
in H1 2013, raising US$11.5b — a near 70%
increase on the first half of 2012.
Increasing confidence in public markets
is having a positive effect on private equity
(PE)’s ability to take portfolio companies
public. PE-backed deals accounted for
more than one-third of the total proceeds
raised by all global IPOs in H1 2013. The
second quarter had a particularly strong
showing, with 43 PE-backed IPOs raising
US$13.6b, an increase of 70% over Q1,
when US$8b was raised. And, on top of this,
there are currently more than 50 PE-backed
companies in the IPO pipeline, with the
potential to raise more than US$13.7b, our
research shows.
This development is important for PE,
as it provides a boost to the exit prospects
of large portfolio companies. Our study
of 2012 exits from European PE portfolios,
Myths and challenges, which tracks
PE-backed businesses with an entry
enterprise value (EV) of €150m (US$198m)
and above, found there were just three
public exits in 2012.
This is one factor contributing to the
increase in holding periods of PE portfolios.
The average in our sample is now 4.7 years,
up from 3.5 years in 2006. Our research
also shows that there are around 100
companies in Europe’s PE portfolio with
an entry EV of €1b (US$1.3b) and above.
For a number of these, an IPO is one of
the few viable exit options, particularly as
many corporate buyers continue to remain
circumspect about making acquisitions.
Big IPO exits in Europe this year include
CVC Capital Partners’ offering of Belgian
postal services business bpost, which raised
more than US$1b, and insurer esure, backed
by Penta Capital Partners and Electra
Partners, which also raised over US$1b.
In the pipeline, among others, are Carlyle,
Cinven and Altice-backed cable company
Numericable, and theme park operator Merlin
Entertainments, backed by Blackstone Group
and CVC. Appetite among investors appears
to stretch across all sectors.
If the IPO drought really is ending, the
after-market performance of PE-backed
companies will help to get other new issues
away. In the first half of this year, our
research shows 75% of PE-backed IPOs
were priced within or above their expected
ranges, with an average 11.2% increase over
their offer price through to the end of June.
Indeed, EY’s research into technology
sector PE-backed IPOs, Right team, right
story, right price, found that attractive
pricing ranked highest as a requirement for
new issues for institutional investors, cited
by more than 90% of respondents. There
is no doubt that getting the initial pricing
right is key in today’s market — investors
need to be confident there is still an upside
in new issues. Successful IPO candidates
also need other attributes to attract high
levels of interest. Ranking second was a
compelling equity story (65%) that includes
growth prospects, and third, confidence in
management (57%).
The outlook is good for PE-backed IPOs.
There is a strong pipeline and investors
appear to be welcoming high-quality new
issues in the market, as long as they are
priced attractively. And, for some of PE’s
largest companies, this may be the only
exit route. But, as long as the IPO window
remains open, it looks as if this wave of new
PE issues will continue.
Sachin Date is the Private Equity Leader for EMEIA
at EY. For further insight, please email 	
sachin@capitalinsights.info
The IPO
agenda
The PE perspective
Sachin Date
Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY
From large corporates to
small retailers, each family
business is unique. But the
best often share common
characteristics. We explore
how they grow, the key
challenges they face and
what others can learn
Key insights
•	 Long-term management and clear
succession plans have helped family
businesses grow.
•	 Family businesses often eschew
short-term goals that help preserve
the business in the long run.
•	 A focus on innovation helped family
businesses come through the recession.
•	 Family businesses are growing not only
through M&A, but also via third-party
companies and franchises, in order to
maintain control of the main brand.
•	 When it comes to raising capital, family
businesses need to weigh up the need for
capital against the dilution of ownership:
private equity or alternative financing
could be the solution.
ties
The
that
bind
I
n the age of the exit-focused
entrepreneur and the shareholder-
controlled public company, it’s easy
to forget the importance of family
businesses to the global economy.
In its June 2012 report on the sector,
Built to last, EY noted that family-owned
businesses account for around 60% of all
companies in Europe and the US, and about
half of employment. Elsewhere in the world,
family businesses are just as prevalent. For
instance, the Credit Suisse Asian Family
Business report from 2011 found that
across the 10 Asian countries covered, they
accounted for 32% of market capitalization.
And they have proved resilient in the face
of difficult economic conditions. EY’s Built to
last survey found that 60% of respondents
had grown by 5% or more in the year to June
2012, while a sixth reported growth of 15%
or more. Yet, despite these stellar figures,
family companies face real challenges.
Succession is a perennial issue, as is
the dilution of ownership or influence when
finance is raised. And lately, businesses in
developed markets have been facing fierce
competition from emerging market peers.
But these businesses have shown that a
long-term focus, investment in innovation
and smart capital-raising methods can
help overcome these obstacles. And other
corporates need to take note.
Playing the long game
Peter Englisch, Global Leader of EY’s Family
Business Center of Excellence, says the sector
tlGettyImages/HultonArchive/StringerclGettyImages/E.O.HoppeblBishop’sMovetrBloombergviaGettyImagescrGettyImages/SeanGallupbrBishop’sMove
www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 29
Family businesses
that are focusing
expansion plans on
new products and
services, according to
EY’s Built to last survey
Proportion of listed companies belonging to family business groups – by country
Sri Lanka
66.7%
Indonesia
29.7%
Turkey
50%
Greece
20%
Colombia
48.2%
India
29.3%
Philippines
46%
Mexico
26.2%
Chile
46.2%
Belgium
24.4%
Source: Masulis, Pham, Zein: Family Business Groups around the World:
Financing Advantages, Control Motivations and Organizational Choices (2011)
is characterized by a dynastic will. “What we see in family
businesses are plans to ensure that ownership of the company
will be passed down to the next generation,” he says. This
is borne out in EY’s Built to last report, where over half
of respondents said that a long-term management
perspective was one of the most important factors for
ongoing business success.
Sometimes, this can be achieved over many generations.
A case in point is Bishop’s Move, the UK’s largest private
removals group, now in its sixth generation of family
ownership. Five years ago, the company took on its first
outside CEO, Alistair Bingle, with family members Nigel and
Roger Bishop as Joint Chairmen. “As new generations enter,
many move out of the business and seek other professional
situations. We bring family members onto the board when
they show a clear intent that they want to be involved,” says
Nigel Bishop, who is also the company’s Franchise Director.
Family firms’ long-term view can be seen in their
response to the recession, says Englisch. “Family-owned
companies didn’t respond by downsizing. Instead, they
used the downturn to invest in people,” he says. “And, when
economic conditions improved, they re-emerged as full, highly
motivated workforces.”
Motivating workers appears to be embedded in the DNA
of family-owned companies. According to a June 2013 study
by the UK’s Institute of Family Business Research Foundation,
Family Business People Capital, people working in family-
owned companies scored higher across several indicators
(including sense of achievement and scope to use initiative)
than those working in other types of business. Seventy-eight
percent of respondents described themselves as loyal to the
business, compared with 74% in the non-family sector.
It’s a picture recognized by Bishop: “Within our company,
we ensure staff feel that they are being looked after,” he says.
“One of the benefits is that we succeed in retaining people for
a considerable length of time, and they are loyal staff.”
Growth patterns
When it comes to investing, family businesses are focusing on
innovation and traditional M&A, as well as alternative growth
models, such as franchising and third-party investment.
In terms of innovation, the Institute of Small Business
Research in Germany found that, at the height of the
Eurozone crisis, nearly half of German family-run companies
turning over more than €50m (US$67.6m) were investing
more in their business and focusing on innovation. And,
according to Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economics and
Technology, 54% of the country’s Mittelstand businesses —
overwhelmingly family-owned and managed — introduced new
products between 2008 and 2010.
In an interview last year, Hartmut Jenner,
Chief Executive of Kärcher, a family-owned
German cleaning equipment company, saw
innovation as key to the company’s growth.
“We have 600 development engineers and
now sell 3,000 products, which is 50% more
than five years ago,” he said. “I think this
provides a good base for the next few years.”
In addition, the most dynamic of family
firms can also be enthusiastically acquisitive.
India’s Tata is a case in point. The company
has acquired businesses and stakes across
a diverse commercial landscape, including
telecommunication company BT’s Mosaic
business in 2010, potash development
firm EPM Mining (30.6% stake in 2011)
and consultancy Alti in July this year.
According to Ajay Bhalla, Professor
of Global Innovation Management at Cass
Business School, Asian firms’ expansion
and diversification are tied to the family
logic of the owners. “Buying up companies
and diversifying offers a way to provide a
new generation the opportunity to gain
experience outside the core business and stay
united under the family umbrella,” he says.
There are also alternative growth
models to consider. For instance, Bishop’s
Move has expanded by signing up franchise
partners that operate under the brand, while
On the web
For more on family businesses, read the EY Built to last report at
www.capitalinsights.info/familybusiness
Investing
Optimizing
Raising
50%
Shutterstock
ey-capital-insights-8-print-pdf
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ey-capital-insights-8-print-pdf
ey-capital-insights-8-print-pdf
ey-capital-insights-8-print-pdf
ey-capital-insights-8-print-pdf
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ey-capital-insights-8-print-pdf
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  • 1. Cisco CFO Frank Calderoni talks transformation, technology and transactions The big switch Oil and gas in focus: how to extract value Mexico: land of opportunity The end of QE: what it means for business Capital InsightsHelping businesses raise, invest, preserve and optimize capital Q42013
  • 2. Helping businesses raise, invest, preserve and optimize capital Preserving Opti m izingRaisi ng Inve sting Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY For EY Marketing Director: Leor Franks (lfranks@uk.ey.com) Program Director: Nathaniel Hass (nhass@uk.ey.com) Consultant Editor: Richard Hall Compliance Editor: Jwala Poovakatt Creative Manager: Laura Hodges Creative Executive: Jess Cowley Design Consultant: David Hale Senior Digital Designer: Christophe Menard Deployment Manager: Angela Singgih For Remark Editor: Nick Cheek Assistant Editor: Sean Lightbown Head of Design: Jenisa Patel Designers: Anna Chou, Vicky Carlin Production Coordinator: Sarah Drumm EMEA Director: Simon Elliott Capital Insights is published on behalf of EY by Remark, the publishing and events division of Mergermarket Ltd, 80 Strand, London, WC2R 0RL UK. www.mergermarketgroup.com/events-publications EY|Assurance|Tax|Transactions|Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of EY Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. EY Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. About EY's Transaction Advisory Services How you manage your capital agenda today will define your competitive position tomorrow. We work with clients to create social and economic value by helping them make better, more informed decisions about strategically managing capital and transactions in fast-changing markets. Whether you're preserving, optimizing, raising or investing capital, EY’s Transaction Advisory Services combine a unique set of skills, insight and experience to deliver focused advice. We help you drive competitive advantage and increased returns through improved decisions across all aspects of your capital agenda. © 2013 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. DE0467 ED 0114 This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. The opinions of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the opinions of the global EY organization or its member firms. Moreover, they should be viewed in the context of the time they were expressed. www.capitalinsights.info ContributorsCapital Insights would like to thank the following business leaders for their contribution to this issue: AlldatainCapitalInsightsiscorrectat1October2013unlessotherwisestated©PaulHeartfield Pablo Coballasi Managing Director, PC Capital Neil Bearden Associate Professor, INSEAD Peter Harbula Corporate Finance Director, Edenred Fernando de Ovando Senior Partner, Jones Day Guy Stainer IR Director, GKN José Zaga CEO, Vicky Form Mike Reid Managing Partner, Frog Capital Paul Seabright Professor, Toulouse School of Economics Tony Cockerill Economist, University of Cambridge Ajay Bhalla Professor, Cass Business School Tony Del Pino Partner, Latham & Watkins Frank Calderoni CFO, Cisco Tim Drayson Head of Economic Legal Team, LGIM Bernard Dumas Professor of Finance, INSEAD Rupa Duttagupta Deputy Chief, World Economic Studies, IMF Charles M. Elson Professor of Legal Studies, University of Delaware Roderick Branch Partner, Latham & Watkins Kevin Forbes Partner, Epi-V James Grebey Author, Operations Due Diligence Evan Greenberg Chairman and CEO, ACE Nick O'Neill CEO, Macquarie Bank Lee Hopley Chief Economist, EEF Richard Loh Managing Director, Eurostop Simon Jones Director, OMERS Private Equity Fernando Solis Soberón Chairman, Afore XXI Banorte Hung Tran Executive Managing Director, IIF Jonny Myers Partner, Clifford Chance Ramin Nakisa Asset Allocation Strategist, UBS Jack Neill-Hall Communications Manager, Institute of Family Business Tania Ortiz Mena VP Business Development, IEnova Diane Coyle Author, The economics of enough Nigel Bishop Co-Chairman, Bishop's Move
  • 3. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 3 For more insights, visit www.capitalinsights.info where you can find our latest thought leadership, including our market-leading Capital Confidence Barometer. Joachim Spill Transaction Advisory Services Leader, EMEIA (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa) at EY If you have any feedback or questions, please email joachim@capitalinsights.info In the 18th century, Jonathan Swift, the famed author of Gulliver's Travels, said: “Vision is the art of seeing what is invisible to others.” Centuries later, this still rings true — particularly for corporates looking for growth in a changing world. In 2013, deal-makers searching for success not only have to see the big picture, but also have to focus on those details that others may miss. Compared with last year, deal values have risen by 5.5%, according to Mergermarket data. Deal-makers can take heart from this news, and for those who have the vision to see the broader economic picture and the ability to keep a keen eye on the specifics, the rewards can be plentiful. In this issue of Capital Insights, we examine how companies can achieve these rewards with both oversight and insight. The big picture: with economic stability yet to return, we explore how corporates receiving cogent macro- and microeconomic advice will have the edge over their competitors (page 32). Meanwhile, on page 35, we ask what the end of quantitative easing could mean for corporates that are looking to raise capital. And, on page 20, we see how the oil and gas sector is coping with the changing global picture. Detail driven: when it comes to individual deals, corporates need to be focused on the specifics. On page 24, we look at the importance of an integrated approach to due diligence and reveal the areas where corporates need to pay particular attention. In our regular country focus on page 10, we discover how local knowledge is crucial when investing in Mexico. Finally, in our exclusive interview on page 14, Cisco’s CFO Frank Calderoni discusses the broader questions surrounding business transformation and acquisitions. In today’s world, corporates face the twin challenges of having to take a broad view of their entire capital agenda, while simultaneously providing microscopic focus on each deal. With that in mind, this issue of Capital Insights should be something of an eye-opener. Seeing clearly
  • 4. 14Cisco Features 10 Mexico: catching the wave Reforms and investment are transforming the Latin American giant, but how should corporates deal in a country that brings complexity along with opportunity? 14 Cover story: The big switch Cisco CFO Frank Calderoni discusses the company’s business transformation, its portfolio and partnership strategies, and reveals the key role finance is playing. 20 Fueling growth The oil and gas sector may be buoyed by record prices and demand, but a focus on strong returns, innovations and partnerships are needed to survive and thrive in this industry. 24 All the right elements What factors and processes make up the due diligence process, how can corporates get it right, and how can companies make sure that their transaction is the best that it can be? 28 The ties that bind We look at the key traits behind successful family businesses and the challenges they face, as well as exploring what other corporates can learn from them. 32 The big picture With the world’s economy still uncertain, Capital Insights looks at how incisive macro- and microeconomic advice can give companies the edge when investing capital. 35 Stop the press What are the potential effects of the unwinding of quantitative easing, and how should corporates worldwide prepare? 10Mexico WINNER 2012 EY is proud to be the Financial Times/Mergermarket European Accountancy Firm of The Year # 1 EY — recognized by Mergermarket as top of the European league tables for accountancy advice on transactions in calendar year 2012* *As run on 7 January 2013 ©iStock.com/SteveCole ©GaryParker Corbis/IvanVdovin Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY Capital InsightsHelping businesses raise, invest, preserve and optimize capital Q42013
  • 5. On the web or on the move? Capital Insights is available online and on your mobile device. To access extra content and download the app, visit www.capitalinsights.info Regulars 06 Headlines The latest news in the world of the capital agenda, and what it could mean for your business. 07 Deal dynamics EY’s Pär-Ola Hansson explains why megadeals are back and what corporates can learn from this trend. 08 Transaction insights Capital Insights explores the rising trend in M&A auctions and talks to Simon Jones of OMERS PE about a recent deal. 27 The PE perspective EY’s Sachin Date discusses the importance of IPOs as an exit strategy for private equity houses. 38 Moeller’s corner M&A Professor Scott Moeller reveals what corporates need to know in order to sell assets properly. 39 Further insights Learn about Capital Insights’ web and app features, plus a look at three new EY thought leadership reports. 28Family business Due diligence 24 Quantitative easing 35 BloombergviaGettyImages ©Corbis/MatthiasKulka www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 5
  • 6. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EYCapital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY Headlines Mexico investments boom Mexico’s corporates are ready to begin a US$27b investment program, according to the country’s business council. The forecast, announced by Claudio X. González, head of the Mexican Businessmen’s Council (CMHN), surpasses the US$22b invested by CMHN member firms in 2012. Cash is also coming in from foreign corporates looking to tap into this emerging market. The biggest inbound deal so far this year was in June, with US beverage company Anheuser-Busch InBev completing its US$20.1b acquisition of Grupo Modelo. The increasing flow of money into the country, both from home and abroad, will no doubt fuel Mexico’s future corporate development. For more on Mexico, see page 10. Fresh hope for IPOs Capital-raising corporates are looking to listings for increased returns. EY’s latest Global IPO Update has projected that 566 IPOs worldwide between Q1—Q3 2013 will raise US$94.8b (up from US$91.4b last year). These expectations are fueled by strong performance in the US, where 65 deals worth US$11.8b accounted for 33% of global deal numbers and 49% of total capital raised. Europe is also looking healthier, with the level of capital raised in 2013 up 204% on the same period last year. And the future seems bright, with several companies hoping to list soon. For instance, Dutch financial group ING is expected to list its insurance arm in 2014. With confidence returning, corporates looking to raise capital should consider going public. Bidders battle it out Competition for assets is growing in the M&A market. Mergermarket figures show that auction deals rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013, with 148 announced, compared with 86 in the same period in 2012. Notable examples of auctions this year include Turkish company EnerjiSA Power Generation’s acquisition of Toroslar Elektrik Dagitim for US$1.7b, and Rhone Capital’s US$1.4b purchase of CSM NV’s bakery supplies business. Deal-makers need to keep on top of the trend, especially as auctions can often push up asset values. For more on auctions, see “Transaction insights” on page 8 and “Moeller’s corner”, page 38. Technology deals surge Technology transactions are helping to revive the M&A market. Deals this year in the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) sector were worth US$445.6b between Q1—Q3 2013. This represents 22.7% of the global M&A value, according to Mergermarket. Indeed, seven of the top ten deals in the first three quarters of this year were in the TMT sector. Big deals that have boosted the sector this year include Liberty Global’s buyout of Virgin Media for US$24.9b, and the proposed merger between advertising giants Publicis and Omnicom. With large deals defining the sector this year, corporates should take note of how the industry is being transformed. For more on transformational deals, see “Deal dynamics”, page 7. clBloombergviaGettyImagestcAFP/GettyImages/TORUYAMANAKAcrGettyImages/CarlosS.Pereyra Commodities to fuel M&A The metals and mining sector could be set for a deal bonanza, should commodity prices rise. EY’s Mergers, acquisitions and capital raising in mining and metals 1H 2013 shows that deal volume was down 30% on the same period one year previously, with 350 deals recorded. Deal value was up 41%, although, in the main, this can be attributed to the US$37.8b Glencore International and Xstrata merger. But, according to EY’s Global Mining and Metals Transactions Leader, Lee Downham, demand for assets could jump if commodities gain in price. “A sign of sustained improvement in commodity prices may be needed to trigger an increase in competitive buying activity of the many divested assets coming to market,” he said in the report. As the hunt for new opportunities continues, corporates should take note of these trends. Europe bonding well Bank loans are becoming less popular with EU companies. Fitch data has revealed that loan markets represented just €238b (US$322b) of the €495b (US$671b) of total new debt funding for European companies in H1 2013, down 60% year-on-year, and it is the first time European firms have borrowed less than €500b (US$677b) from syndicated loan markets in a decade. The study, which analyzed the balance sheets of 201 rated European companies, also found that bonds are becoming increasingly important for raising capital. In the first half of this year, bond financing accounted for 82% of the average corporate debt structure, compared with 68% in 2008. Royal Dutch Shell’s US$3.75b issuance in August is indicative of this trend. With bank financing becoming more scarce, corporates need to consider other options for raising capital.
  • 7. Pär-Ola Hansson is Deputy Leader EMEIA Transaction Advisory Services, EY. For further insight, please email par-ola@capitalinsights.info 7 Deal dynamics Pär-Ola Hansson A fter the US$27.4b takeover of Heinz by Berkshire Hathaway (BH) and 3G in February, BH CEO Warren Buffett said that he was still ready to spend the company’s cash to bag another “elephant of a deal.” And the Sage of Omaha is not the only one — it appears the megadeal is back in fashion. While overall M&A deal value in Q1—Q3 2013 was up 5.5% compared with 2012, megadeal (those above US$2b) values rose 44.1% in the same period, with Q3 2013 being the highest quarter since Q1 2009, according to Mergermarket. For example, in February, international cable company Liberty Global announced a US$24.9b deal for Virgin Media. And, two months later, in the life sciences sector, Thermo Fisher Scientific bought Life Technologies for US$13.6b. There are three factors behind this blockbuster boom: cash, confidence and consolidation. At the end of Q2 2013, in the US alone, non-financial companies were sitting on US$1.27t in cash, according to Standard & Poor’s. And investors are insisting that corporates put this to work. However, megadeals don’t get done unless confidence is high. Fortunately, this seems to be rising — in October’s EY Capital Confidence Barometer, 65% of respondents felt that the global economy was improving, compared with 51% six months ago. As corporates consolidate, megadeals have often been concentrated in certain sectors. This was true in 2009 in the pharmaceutical industry, when the deals between Pfizer and Wyeth, Roche and Genentech, and Merck and Schering Plough ©PaulHeartfield Transformational M&A is making the headlines once again. But why are these deals on the rise and what lessons can other corporates learn? moves are had a collective value of US$155b. In 2013, it’s the turn of telecommunications, media and technology. For example, the deal between Publicis and Omnicom, announced in July 2013, would create the world’s largest advertising and marketing service. However, complexities such as greater scrutiny, the fact that both bidder and target are often listed entities, and the fear of information leakages mean that corporates must be more prepared than usual when undertaking transformational deals. Companies must create a close deal team to prevent leaks that can destabilize a megadeal. The April 2013 Intralinks M&A Confidential report showed that, from 2010 to 2012, leaked deals had a lower completion rate (80%) than non-leaked deals (88%). The team must gather as much available information on the target as it can and do the due diligence well in advance — as once the deal is announced, all eyes will be on it. In addition, early discussion with the key shareholders is vital. Corporates need to be clear about the deal’s benefits and how it will increase shareholder value. Experts certainly feel that megadeals can be influential on the market. In an interview earlier this year, Paul Parker, Head of Global Corporate Finance and M&A at Barclays, said: “Big deals tend to be transformational for industries. Second-order consequences can be very meaningful — often requiring a strategic offensive or defensive response.” The blockbuster-deal wave may prove that fortune favors the brave. And corporates of all sizes should take note as they hunt for growth. Bold back
  • 8. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY M&A announced auctions volume and value 2009—13 Value of M&A auctions, 2009—13 182 242 101 151 148 2010 2009 2011 2012 2013* Q3 12 41 Q1 12 21 Q2 12 24 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 43 51 54 } 86 } 148 Total auctions Q1—Q3 2012 and 2013 Volum e of M &A auctions 2009—13 2010 US$82.3b 2009 US$53.4b 2011 US$43.4b 2012 US$56b 2013* * Up to Q3 US$41.2b Deal volumes may not be hitting the heights of five years ago, but prize assets are being fought over more keenly than ever. Competition among bidders has increased markedly in the last year — the first three quarters of 2013 saw the announcement of 148 auction deals — almost double the 86 announced in the same period in 2012. Indeed, it is the highest number of M&A auctions seen in the first three quarters of a year since 2009. The auction boom has also, it seems, caught the eye of private equity (PE) and buyout houses. There were 37 PE buyouts in 2013 up to Q3 — already more than the entire number of PE-won auctions in 2012. The biggest so far this year was Rhone Transaction insightsKey facts and figures from the world of M&A. This issue: auctions Capital’s US$1.4b purchase of consumer food company CSM’s European and North American bakery supplies business. The average auction deal value so far this year is US$332m, down on the US$430m averaged last year. Of the 124 auctions that disclosed a deal value so far this year, 72 are valued at US$100m or less, indicating that auctions are becoming a preferred option for small to mid-cap companies. Indeed, at 48.6%, the proportion of auction deals under US$100m is the highest since 2009. Auctions still represent a small slice of M&A. But their growing popularity should be noted by smaller firms looking to sell, as well as acquisitive corporates. In the end, it is they who will need to fight harder for their prize. Source:Mergermarket
  • 9. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 9 Dealing with competition Simon Jones, Director at OMERS Private Equity, contrasts competitive auctions with bilateral deals To a large degree, the rise in the number of auctions taking place is due in part to two factors: confidence and accountability. Auctions provide a market-tested outcome for value. In contrast, selling and buying in off-market deals can lead to challenges from both parties over whether value was really maximized or if the asset was overpriced. However, maintaining confidentiality is more easily achieved through bilateral deals. In May, we acquired IT systems and business process services provider Civica for £390m (US$625m) from PE firm 3i. This deal was a hybrid auction; appetite from a wide number of parties was gauged during pre-marketing, with only half a dozen or so serious bidders invited into the process in earnest. Next to off-market opportunities, these “limited” auctions are a preferred route for us, as we want to understand the competitive dynamics and have confidence in our angles. Due to this, we would struggle to get excited about a truly open auction. Simon Jones is a Director at OMERS Private Equity The greatest difference between an auction and a bilateral deal is the access to both management and company information. With multiple parties involved in an auction, sell-side advisors have to ration access considerably. As a result of this, we seek early meetings with management and do considerable amounts of preparatory work before entering a competitive process. Assessing your ability to win is important, because processes are costly and time-consuming. GettyImages/Photodisc The top 10 countries (value of M&A auctions*), 2009—13** * All values in US$ ** Up to Q3 Top five countries by auction deal value Other top countries by auction deal value France $11.9b Sweden $8.5b Germany $17.4b Turkey $13.6b Russia $17.8b China $16.1b US $60.7b Australia $12.3b UK $28.3b South Korea $23.2b Some activity has come from public sector bodies looking to privatize assets in tough economic times: 8 of the top 25 deals by value so far in 2013 have been governments selling to private corporates. This included the US$5b purchase of Port Botany and Port Kembla from the New South Wales Government in Australia by a consortium led by IFM and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Countries putting companies under the hammer Unsurprisingly, auctions are most popular by volume in M&A’s biggest market: the US. This reflects the legal pressures on boards to demonstrate shareholder value. Excluding lapsed auctions, there have been 232 in the US since 2009, far ahead of second-placed China, which saw 143 auctions over the same period. istock/Pingebat
  • 10. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY Catching the wave Mexico: Economic reform, strong demographics and investment- focused corporates mean that Mexico is a market on the move. But how should you deal in a country that also brings complexity? Key insights • The Mexican economy is set to become the largest Latin American economy within a decade, overtaking Brazil. • This growth is partly down to Mexico’s strong fundamentals, such as demographics and political reform. • Mexico’s consumer sector has seen more deals this year than any other industry in the country, in part thanks to developing consumer credit firing the sector’s growth. • The country has also garnered a reputation as being a key position in corporates’ global supply chains. • Mexico’s multinationals are making big moves into developed markets, such as Europe and the US. B razil might be a darling of investors, but Mexico may soon eclipse it. The country is on course to overtake Brazil and become the region’s largest economy within a decade, according to research by investment bank Nomura. “Mexico is now in the moment, as a result of macro and micro factors and industrial policies,” says Roberto Cuarón, Partner, Valuation and Business Modelling, EY, Mexico. “Other countries haven’t yet driven away the effects of the 2008 crisis.” A swelling middle class has made investors take note as Mexico integrates into the global supply chain. Mexico’s statistics institute, INEGI, has shown that, from 2000 to 2010, the country’s middle class grew by four percentage points to 39.2%. The short-term outlook is also generally positive. Although the International Monetary Fund recently cut Mexico’s growth forecast to 1.8% for this year, it expects growth to return to 3% in 2014 as ongoing structural reforms bear fruit. Additionally, capital market activity is thriving. Dealogic figures show that Mexico’s equity capital market is having a record year — raising US$10.4b in 2013. Economic reform A big factor behind the investment drive is the progress of reforms, introduced by President Enrique Peña Nieto since he took office in December 2012. Key to this is Nieto’s “Pact for Mexico”, a signed accord that pushes cross-sector reforms that are designed to boost annual economic growth Corbis/Ivan Vdovin
  • 11. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 11 to 6% — a threefold increase on the average of 2% seen since 2000. The scale of the reforms encompasses labor, education, banking, tax, telecoms and energy. For example, this year, Congress has approved an overhaul of the country’s telecom laws, opening up the sector to greater competition and to allow more FDI. “Pact for Mexico” reforms are creating opportunities in sectors previously reserved for state monopolies. Investors had tended to bypass Mexico’s hydrocarbon, mining, power and telecoms sectors, seeing them as the preserve of domestic firms. Since 1999, these sectors have accounted for only 9% of the FDI flowing into Mexico. By contrast, they account for 26% of FDI stock in Brazil, 35% in Argentina and 45% in Chile. The reforms are set to change the perception of investors and encourage entry into these sectors. Although the reforms can provide a boost, experts note that solid foundations are the main drivers behind Mexico’s recent wave of investor interest. “The reforms are very welcome, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the fundamentals — the changing demographic and robust economic management — that will drive this country forward,” says Nick O’Neill, head of fund manager Macquarie’s Mexican Infrastructure Investment Fund. “And, if you overlay the reform program on top of this, you have a very compelling investment story.” The generally healthy macro indicators show that Mexico’s economy is a good place to invest, says Tania Ortiz Mena, Vice President of Business Development at Mexican energy infrastructure company IEnova. The reforms are the icing on the cake. “We have a new administration that has proven that it can create a consensus with other politicians to pass substantial reforms. There is the expectation that this administration can achieve substantial change,” she says. Mexico’s strategic location and growth potential means that companies will continue to acquire Mexican assets, notes Tony Del Pino, Partner at law firm Latham & Watkins, and Co-chair of its Latin America Practice. “Recent big deals have included Anheuser-Busch InBev acquiring Grupo Modelo for US$20.1b in June. And the Swiss engineering company Foster Wheeler completed its first Mexican acquisition in April. This was a strategic move intended to grow their upstream capabilities, and their geographic engineering and construction footprint in Latin America,” he says. Deal revival Deal flow suggests that foreign firms have a strong appetite in Mexico. According to Mergermarket, Mexico saw 30 deals up to Q3 2013. This is the second-highest number in five years. Mexico is receiving more attention than ever before from both strategic and institutional buyers, according to Del Pino. “Deal size has been on the rise, from the US$20.1b acquisition of Grupo Modelo to the US$1.6b acquisition of Spanish banking group BBVA’s pension fund business by Mexican bank Banorte. We’re also seeing local companies take larger roles as buyers and investors, as well as more competition for private equity (PE) deals stemming from successful fund- raising by Mexico- and region-focused funds. As such, more deals are being carried out as auctions, which is unusual in Mexico.” The BBVA deal, completed in November 2012, is an example of a Mexican firm diversifying its revenue streams. “The rationale of the purchase of the asset management firm from BBVA was the synergies due to economies of scale in this business,” says Fernando Solis Soberón, CEO of Long Term Investments at Banorte and Chairman of Afore XXI Banorte. “Additionally, it will also diversify the source of income for the financial group, given the increase in revenue from the commissions obtained from managing the compulsory retirement savings.” The consumer segment in Mexico — Latin America’s second largest — has emerged as a more recent target for foreign investors. With nine deals so far this year, it has seen more activity than any other sector. The largest announced deal is US beverage company Constellation Brands’ US$2.9b acquisition of Compania Cervecera de Coahuila in February. Outright buys aren’t the only route to market. In the late autumn of 2012, for instance, global underwear retailer Triumph International acquired a majority stake in Mexican lingerie firm Vicky Form. Triumph On the web For more on entrepreneurship and growth in Mexico, read EY’s The power of three at www.capitalinsights.info/mexico Top three completed Mexican inbound deals, Oct 2012—13 Completion Target Buyer Deal value JUN 2013 Grupo Modelo Anheuser-Busch InBev (Belgium) US$20.1b JUN 2013 Compania Cervecera de Coahuila Constellation Brands (US) US$2.9b MAY 2013 ABA Seguros ACE Limited (Switzerland) US$865m Source: Mergermarket 30Number of inbound deals in Mexico in 2013 up to Q3 — the second-highest number for five years (Source: Mergermarket) Investing Raising
  • 12. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY Mexico Population 116.2m (2013) FDI US$12.7b (2012) GDP US$1.2t (2012) Source: CIA World Factbook; US Embassy in Mexico istock/Pingebat wanted to enter the Mexican market, and saw the local leadership position of the Vicky Form brand as a platform for its own. For Vicky Form, the deal offers the chance to expand internationally. As Vicky Form’s CEO José Zaga says: “With this JV, we gain access to some of the world’s top commercial intimate apparel brands and the unique opportunity to expand the business model beyond Mexico. The partnership maintains its original plans of further developing Vicky Form in the Mexican markets and the region.”  Building growth The manufacturing sector boasts pedigree as an FDI magnet. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean notes that, in 2012, the sector was the strongest investment draw (absorbing 56% of the total). Among the main deals was Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau’s US$600m investment to build a new structural steel plant in October. Alongside this, the automotive sector recorded a 75% jump in FDI, to US$2.4b in 2012. Developed-market automakers have laid down roots as Mexican factories have established themselves in regional and global supply chains. For instance, last year, Audi announced plans to open a new plant in Mexico, which should begin producing cars in 2016. A spokesperson for Audi told Capital Insights that: “Mexico is an ideal location, strategically offering a favorable sandwich position between North and South America.” The decision to locate in Mexico is aimed at safeguarding the automaker’s competitive position on global markets, lowering its costs and increasing profit margins. And, it should provide a competitive advantage with consumers. As Mexico is part of several free-trade agreements, it will be able to ship its cars duty free to the US, Latin America and Europe. If, instead, it had opted to build a production plant in the US, it would have had to contend with a tariff burden of 10%. The Mexican economy will profit by Audi’s decision to set up its San José Chiapa, with the creation of about 3,800 new jobs. This will create a further 20,000 jobs for the periphery, the suppliers, logistics and service providers. M&A activity in Mexico is in line with the long-term FDI trend. Pablo Coballasi, who heads corporate finance house PC Capital, says: “There’s a correlation between international cross-border M&A and FDI. A lot of international investors are looking at the macro trends. The fundamentals have given them the confidence to come and expand by making current operations larger, or expanding within the market through M&A.” According to Olivier Hache, Managing Partner for EY’s Transaction Advisory Services in Mexico and Central America, some of the deals are driven by Mexico’s position in the global supply chain, particularly in the automotive industry. “If you’re an automaker, you might decide to have a supplier situated near your factory. If that’s in Mexico, then the parts supplier Mexico’s movers: looking beyond their borders According to Banco de México, Mexican firms invested US$25.6b outside the country in 2012, 111% more than in 2011. Brimming with confidence, these firms are now eyeing US and European opportunities. For example, in April 2012, loan provider Grupo Elektra bought Advance America, the largest US payday lender, for US$780m. So what are Mexican firms looking at when acquiring abroad? “Once, it was only very large Mexican firms with the capacity for outbound acquisitions, but last year, Mexico exported more FDI than it received — the first time this has happened in five years,” says Pablo Coballasi. “This reflects the greater availability of liquidity in local markets and the balance sheet strength of Mexican corporates. Price is another factor. Asset prices in Europe and the US are cheap compared with previous years.” This has led to global market leaders with Mexican roots. “Cemex was a very large consolidator in the industry and has grown to have operations pretty much around the world,” says Coballasi. “The same is true for other large corporates, such as América Móvil (AM). It set out to expand not just within Latin America, but also in Europe.” In August, for instance, AM bid US$9.6b for the 70% of Dutch telecom group KPN it doesn’t already own. GettyImages/MarkDCallanan
  • 13. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 13 Peter Harbula of prepaid services provider Edenred discusses the practicalities of investing in Mexico T he reason why Mexico is attractive to us is based on a number of trends, but one key trend is the growing formalization of the Mexican economy. The market has become more and more mature. Compared with previous years, more companies are declaring their full number of employees. As our services are meant for people on the official payroll, this is a robust medium-term growth driver. Mexico is a strong market that offers sustainable growth opportunities, especially in light of its location and its close ties to the US, and helped by its membership of the North American Free Trade Agreement. There is good growth potential in the business-to-business services sector, the area in which our company is active. Services are growing very fast in Mexico. We have been present in Mexico for 30 years. Investing in Mexico is, in a way, not so different to more developed economies: the financial and legal procedures are broadly similar, for instance. But there is a Latin American touch in the importance given to personal contacts, face-to-face meetings and establishing trust. Things agreed by handshake and verbal agreements are matters that are regarded with high importance. Mexico is one of our top countries: our core products in the country are the food and meal vouchers, as well as the expense management solutions, for corporate fleets. The meal vouchers market is based on a regulation under which employers provide food and meal vouchers to their employees that exempt both of them from taxes. Mexico contributes largely to our organic growth. Viewpoint Peter Harbula is Corporate Finance Director at Edenred There is a Latin American touch in the importance given to personal contacts and establishing trust has to be, too. This can sometimes be more about direct investment than pure M&A,” says Hache. The services sector has also sparked interest among corporates. This year, Swiss insurer ACE Group completed a deal for ABA Seguros, Mexico’s fourth-largest auto insurance company, for US$865m. Mexico’s position as a bridge for the wider Latin American market was a key factor here. After the deal, Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ACE Limited, said that ABA Seguros’ reputation and creativity was something “that can be leveraged across Mexico and the Latin America region.” Overcoming the obstacles M&A in Mexico still poses challenges, though. One is the lack of institutionalization within family-owned firms. “Mexican companies are used to running things in a ‘family way’ and are, therefore, not accustomed to bringing in new money or giving away a slice of their business,” says Fernando de Ovando, Senior Partner at the Mexico office of international law firm Jones Day. Such ownership can make them less transparent, posing a challenge to buyers seeking to make large investments and implement strategic changes. “Diligence and control issues are key questions. Partnering with excellent international and local advisors is a prerequisite,” says Del Pino. There has also been growth in PE funds that prefer to take on significant minority or controlling stakes while keeping local partners involved. PE investment in Mexico has grown rapidly in the last few years, with US$14.9b in capital having been committed to PE investments since 2000. “That’s a pretty sizeable pool of capital, and PE is going to become more and more important as family business owners get more educated about the benefits of having a PE partner,” says Coballasi. How to ride the wave For corporates looking to thrive in Mexico, here are three key factors to consider before investing: Get local know-how. “Before you get into a deal, you need an advisor who knows the market and can help you not only with the general structure of the deal, but also the cultural aspects of doing a deal in Mexico,” says de Ovando. Embed roots. Investors need to be sure that key shareholders are involved early in the M&A process. “Once a deal is closed, you are going to need a local management team and local ownership to help guide you through the first years of the operation. It’s key for the buyers to get to know the market with locals, so that they can become experts themselves as time passes,” says de Ovando. Understand the system. Deal-makers must keep a close eye on the specific set of factors unique to Mexico, such as foreign ownership restrictions on certain industries. Tax and labor laws are also key. Roderick Branch, a partner at Latham & Watkins, says: “Tax matters, particularly the availability of applicable tax treaties, are key. Traditionally, labor laws have posed a particularly difficult set of challenges. Formal requirements inherent to Mexico’s civil law system, such as notarization and public filings, need special attention that can affect structuring.” While challenges such as ownership restrictions and legal differences exist, for those prepared to persevere and set up in a rapidly growing, yet mature, economy, such obstacles are well worth overcoming. For further insight, please email editor@capitalinsights.info
  • 14. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY © Gary Parker
  • 15. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 15 The bigCisco CFO Frank Calderoni explores the company’s business transformation, discusses its portfolio and partnership strategies, and reveals the key role of finance T ransformation is the name of the game for IT and networking giant Cisco. While the company has been a leader in the networking market for many of its 29 years, the San Jose-based business is now looking to become the world’s “number one IT company,” according to CFO Frank Calderoni. While this is certainly an ambitious target, Cisco has the numbers to back it up. The company has had 10 consecutive record quarters, and figures for Q2 2013 showed that order growth was up across most sectors — for example, the US enterprise (companies with over 1,000 employees) business grew 9%, while commercial (smaller companies) rose by 12%. However, strong figures and ambitious targets do not come easy — particularly in the ever-changing technology sector. The company has had to evolve to meet the needs of the marketplace and, since his succession to CFO in 2008, Calderoni has been at the forefront of this transformation. “First, we had to address how we’d continue to innovate over the long term,” he says. “We needed to realign strategy around core priorities — one of which was to prioritize our core business of switching and routing. Another aspect was to look at growth drivers for the next three to five years.” The five growth areas that Cisco identified were data center and cloud, mobility, security, software, and the services market business. And in each of these, the predictions have proved very much on the money. For example, technology research group Gartner forecast that world security technology and services would reach US$67.2b in 2013 — up 8.7% year on year — while the cloud market would grow by 19% to US$131b over the same period. In recent years, in each of these five segments, Cisco has posted strong figures. For example, in Q2, wireless Preserving Investing Optimizing Raising mobility was up by 32%. And nowhere has the success of the transformation strategy been more apparent than with cloud computing. “In [this] space, we have been very successful in a very short time. We have gone from no share to being number two on the data center side in just a couple of years, and we see that continuing,” says Calderoni. Everything counts However, the key for the company, he says, is “to bring it all together around a solution for customers. We didn’t just want individual products, but solutions built around a technological framework that gives customers a full end-to-end experience.” Cisco’s Internet of Everything (IoE) is the cornerstone of this new strategy. The idea of the IoE is a networked connection of people, processes, data and “things”, which is being facilitated by technology transitions such as increased mobility, cloud computing and the importance of big data. “From a business perspective, connecting multiple devices is the next stage of the opportunity for us,” says Calderoni. The importance of the project cannot be overstated. A report by Cisco’s IoE Value Index predicted that it would enable global businesses to generate US$613b in profits in 2013. When it came to assessing how to set Cisco’s priorities within its new strategy, the CFO turned to the three key stakeholders in the business. “The number one priority was to understand the customer and ensure we met [their] requirements from a technical point of view,” Calderoni says. “Then, we needed to ensure we had the right base of skills and talent within the company, from an employee perspective. And the third crucial aspect was the investors. We had to make sure we had the ability for them to invest in Cisco and get the right returns. switch
  • 16. Leading by example The finance function has been spearheading the march to make Cisco “the number one IT company”. When the company embarked on the new strategy around three years ago, Calderoni set up a new model that saw the business emphasize profitability over rapid revenue growth. The long-term revenue model was reset to between 5% and 7% compound annual growth rate — a shift from the historic goals of 12% to 17% — while profit targets were set at 7% to 9%. To achieve this, the CFO had to alter how finance worked within Cisco so it was closely allied to the new strategy. “We made a number of changes within finance to help the company be more successful in the transformation,” he says. “We invested heavily in our financial data infrastructure as the first step in our finance transformation. Having a common source of information is critical. “The second part was to see how we could be more effective in providing and driving value in the company to partners that we want to work with inside Cisco. This meant having a seat at the table to enable decisions to be made based on the data available. A key part of this was trying to uplevel the skills within the finance organization so they gained a greater appreciation of the business as a whole.” At the same time, the company also launched its Accelerated Cisco Transformation (ACT) initiative — an overarching framework encompassing a variety of cost initiatives that looked at both product cost and operating expense, and the ways that Cisco could be more efficient when managing these within the company. Portfolio polishing One of the most imperative parts of the transformation was ensuring that the business portfolio was aligned with the new strategy. “We needed to understand the long-term implications from a financial return perspective on certain investments and divestments. We had to make significant trade-offs,” says Calderoni. As part of this approach, over the past three years, Cisco has divested its consumer products, including, in January this year, the sale of its Linksys brand of home routers to Belkin. The “trade-offs” reduced Cisco’s annual run rate by US$1b and were the catalyst that allowed the company to invest in areas that focused more clearly on the new direction, as well as giving a stronger return to shareholders. When it comes to investing the company’s capital, whether it is organic or inorganic, the first priority is always innovation, according to Calderoni. “We do this via both build and buy,” he says. “On the build side, we have around 25,000 engineers helping to invest in innovation for current and future products. We spend around US$6b a year overall in research and development. “On the buy side, we look at where there is a potential acquisition that would help build the portfolio in certain areas. 1984 19901987 1 9 9 1 Cisco receives funding from venture capital firm Sequoia Capital Cisco opens offices in the UK and France. Market capitalization reaches US$1b Cisco founded by two computer scientists from Stanford University Cisco goes public in February on the NASDAQ. Gains market capitalization of US$224m Being CFO Frank Calderoni explains the three-part approach to being an effective CFO First, there is the fiduciary side, ensuring that the numbers are recorded accurately and we meet regulatory requirements. The second side is outreach, not only externally but also to leaders in the company, so they understand what motivates the investors. The third is engaging with business leaders and customers in understanding strategy, enabling us to execute and provide insight from a financial perspective to help inform that strategy, aligned to a financial set of goals. lCiscocGettyImages/JohnMoorerUIGviaGettyImages/ViewPictures
  • 17. 17 1992 1993 1995 1996 Cisco makes its first acquisition — Crescendo Communications and its 100-Mbps Copper Distributed Data Interface technology Cisco opens offices in Beijing and Amsterdam, while making a further seven acquisitions Cisco opens offices in Toronto and Tokyo Cisco makes further acquisitions in the form of Combinet, Internet Junction, Grand Junction and Network Translation We have been fairly aggressive acquirers for a number of years. Since our inception, we have done 165 acquisitions.” In the last 12 months alone, Cisco has bought 13 companies, primarily in the software and services space. These have included the announcements of deals for UK-based specialist 3G provider Ubiquisys in March for US$300m, and US cybersecurity company Sourcefire for US$2.7b in July. While the volume of acquisitions may be relatively high, the criteria for choosing each business are still demanding, according to the CFO. “Our acquisitions are made around the business strategy and areas of growth. We ensure that we are investing heavily in those areas that deliver innovation and the right technology for our customers. And we also have to make sure that these [businesses] will deliver appropriate returns to our investors over a longer period of time.” Sourcefire is a good example of an acquisition that meets Cisco’s specifications. “First, it fits into one of our growth areas — security. We have a comprehensive security portfolio already, but we felt Sourcefire would give us an even stronger platform to make available to our customers,” says Calderoni. “There are a tremendous number of synergies between Sourcefire and Cisco in the mobile and cloud environment, and that is where you have the most exposure with security.” Staying on target From targeting to integrating a new business, Calderoni reveals that the company follows a step-by-step acquisition process that allows Cisco to really get to know its targets before closing the deal. “If we identify a company that is in line with our strategy, a business development team will start an engagement to discuss whether there is a mutual interest,” says Calderoni. “Then we have a formal CFO commit process: a pre-commit, a commit and a post-commit.” He explains that the pre-commit is the initial analysis looking at specific areas of interest, allowing Cisco to make its own evaluation as to the pros and cons of the target. The commit process comes when there is an agreement within Cisco by the business leader who has that responsibility along with the business development team. This agreement is about the financial objectives as the company moves forward with that acquisition. Then, Cisco makes an agreement to that transaction. Finally, it has post-acquisition reviews to ensure it is meeting the expectations it agreed to in the commit. Joined-up thinking Integrating a new business is tough at the best of times — so integrating 13 over 12 months could present a serious challenge to a company that is already going through a transformation. Therefore, the integration process has to start early and cover all the bases. “We have a very formal integration process. As part of the commit process, we work with the business leader of the target,” says the CFO. “This process lays everything out in a very comprehensive plan over weeks, months, even years, to ensure we do all aspects of the integration process and meet all requirements. As part of the post- commit, we ensure that we are meeting those requirements on a regular basis and we also use it as a vehicle to identify if there are any issues, to help solve them.” One of the key elements that is built into the process is culture. When it comes to post-merger integration, companies will often ©GaryParker lBloombergviaGettyImagesrBloombergviaGettyImages
  • 18. focus on the financials and operations, while culture is more of an afterthought. Yet, incompatible business cultures can rupture even the most secure of deals. “We first evaluate culture in the pre-commit process and determine whether there is an alignment to Cisco culture,” says Calderoni. “We ask whether the target is focused on the customer, whether they are innovative and if they are flexible and agile. We need to do a comprehensive review on cultural alignment because this is potentially one of the key areas of failure.” Going global As part of the investment and acquisition strategy, the company is broadening its reach across different countries. In the past year, it has bought companies in the Czech Republic (Cognitive Security), Israel (Intucell) and Austria (SolveDirect), among others. And Cisco is extremely active across emerging markets (EMs), in particular, India and China. And, despite order growth slowing down across these markets — from 13% a quarter ago to 8% in Q4 FY 2013 — the CFO feels that EMs still have a lot to offer. “If you look at the last five years, we have been investing more heavily in the EMs and we will continue to do so,” he says. Again, figures show that continued investment in these regions is a wise policy. According to the Cisco Visual Networking Index, China’s internet traffic is set to grow by 600% in the next two years, while in India, global mobile data traffic is likely to increase 13-fold between 2012 and 2017. When it comes to making moves in developing markets, Cisco takes a mixed approach to growth — buying, building organically and creating partnerships. “We invest on a case-by-case basis. We have invested directly in some countries by doing acquisitions and created a number of successful partnerships in EMs,” says the CFO. “The key for a successful partnership is where we can complement each other. And it needs to work on both sides — where joining forces is the most effective way of meeting customers’ needs. For those partners interested in working with Cisco, we bring access to new customers and new markets, and partners are able to leverage the global scale that a company like Cisco has.” Recent EM partnership deals have been announced, including a joint venture with China Electronic Software Information in December 2012, and, in April this year, an investment was made in an Indian company, Apalya, which is a pioneer and leader in mobile TV and video streaming. A taxing issue While Cisco is still making acquisitions in the US, the company has stated it is more hesitant about further purchases on home soil until the US corporate tax code is changed. Currently, the US has 1998 20042000 2006 Cisco becomes the world’s most valuable company in terms of market capitalization (US$569b) Cisco announces plans to invest over US$265m in Saudi Arabia and US$275m in Turkey over the next five years Cisco becomes the first company to achieve market capitalization of US$100b in 14 years and performs nine further acquisitions 1 7 2 3 4 5 6 Cisco invests US$32m in a Chinese research and development center. The company also pledges US$50m to help Korean SMEs adopt and deploy networking technologies Lessons learned Frank Calderoni outlines the rules that have defined Cisco’s success Customers are all-important. You need to be focused on customer needs and then deliver on those needs. You have to have an ongoing two-way dialogue with shareholders. Find out what their interests are and align them with what you are trying to do. Ensure you have the right base of skills and talent from an employment standpoint, especially during times of transition and change. To be successful, you need to understand the pace of change not only in the technology industry, but within the company. Macro environments are always going to change. We have a strategy that is focused long-term and independent of the macro environment. Information is critical and having a common source of information is vital. We have invested heavily in our financial data infrastructure. Finance needs to be integral to the business. It is one responsibility to report numbers, but a bigger responsibility is to be an effective business partner internally to drive and build value for the company. GettyImages/JustinSullivan/Cisco
  • 19. 19 the highest corporate tax rate of all OECD nations at 39.1% — and Calderoni feels this has to change, not only for the good of Cisco, but for the good of the US. “The US tax code needs to be modified. It is important for any US-based global company who wishes to be competitive on a global scale to have a tax policy that helps support that,” he says. “What we believe is there are three things that need to be done. First, the tax rate needs to be lowered. Then there needs to be a more globally competitive structure that provides companies with flexibility for bringing in and moving cash around, and, finally, the code needs to be simplified to eliminate a lot of the tax preference items that currently exist. “If we can do these, this could be a win-win for businesses and for the US. A tax code like this could provide incentives for employment and economic growth.” However, government policy is not something that changes overnight, even when there is a good business case for it. Calderoni believes the key is communication. “We will help where we can with knowledge we have gained on the global landscape and the knowledge we have on tax,” he says. “We need to work with members of the US Congress, as well as within the administration and other forums that have looked at tax reform, to make sure we are very visible in providing information that is helpful in moving efforts forward.” Investor interest However, investing, whether at home or abroad, is very much dependent on shareholder support. Mindful of this, as part of Cisco’s capital allocation strategy, the CFO prioritized share buybacks and increased dividends for investors. Since fiscal year 2002, the company has returned approximately US$80b through its buyback program. Equally impressively, in the past two years, it has increased the dividend by around 180%. Why did the CFO choose this course of action? “We listened to investors and asked what they were looking for as a return,” 2008 2012 2013 2013 Cisco pays US$5b to acquire pay TV industry software developer NDS Group Cisco announces seven acquisitions to date, including cybersecurity company Sourcefire for US$2.7b Cisco announces AED5.8b (US$1.6b) five-year ICT investment plan for the United Arab Emirates Cisco launches its Internet of Everything (IoE) Value Index Study, which predicts that US$14.4t of value will be at stake over the next decade, driven by connections through IoE he says. “We decided that, on an annual basis, a minimum of 50% of our free cash flow would be returned through either a buyback or dividend. And, by talking to investors, we found that more preferred a dividend to a buyback, so we rebalanced more on the dividend but continued to support the buyback.” A bright future A transformational strategy, targeted capital allocation and clear communication with key stakeholders have put Cisco in a strong position to achieve its ambitious long-term target. And the CFO is understandably upbeat about the long-term future. “There is a tremendous amount of opportunity in the market, and I feel we are probably in the best position to participate in that opportunity going forward,” says Calderoni. “I hope our continued significant investment will allow us to become the number one IT provider in the future and, at the same time, get the right return for shareholders.” The CFO Frank Calderoni Age: 56 CFO at Cisco: Since 2008 Educated: Fordham University, New York; Pace University, New York Previous positions: Frank joined Cisco in 2004 from QLogic, where he was the Senior Vice President (SVP) and CFO. Prior to that, he was SVP and CFO for SanDisk. Previously, he spent 21 years at IBM and was promoted to VP prior to taking on two CFO roles. Cisco Founded: 1984 Employees: 75,049 Countries: 165 Market capitalization: US$123.4b (as of 21 October 2013)
  • 20. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY Key insights • Increased demand, high oil prices and steady production have increased sector confidence, but challenges lie ahead. • Managing return on capital invested is a major issue for the industry, despite high prices and rising demand. • Corporates need to keep focused on upstream core assets to increase returns. • Partnerships, investment in new technology and a focus on quality, as well as scale of production, are fundamentals for the future success of the industry. A t first glance, oil and gas companies seem to be doing better than ever. Production is running at near record levels. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, the world produced 86.1b barrels of oil in 2012 — a 15% increase on total production 10 years ago. At the same time, oil prices have averaged a historically high level of US$111 per barrel for the past two years, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). A decade ago, oil was priced at just US$25 a barrel. The high pricing is a result of growing demand. According to BP, consumption increased to a record high of 89.7 billion barrels last year, a 14% increase on the 78.4 billion barrels consumed in 2002. Strong growth in emerging markets (EM) has driven the increase, with a rise in consumption of 3.3% in countries that are not members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Oil and gas executives have taken heart from this backdrop of increasing demand, high oil prices and steady production. “For the bulk of the last decade, we have been in an environment where oil prices were rising quite quickly and gas prices were either flat or rising,” says Andy Brogan, Global Oil & Gas Transactions Leader at EY. “Fields that came on stream when prices were still low are economical at those lower prices and are still producing. When the oil price is trading above those levels, the energy companies are making money, and that underpins confidence.” This is shown by EY’s latest Capital Confidence Barometer, in which 58% of respondents were focused on growth — up from 41% in October 2012. This underlying industry confidence supported a record year for M&A in 2012. According to EY’s Global Oil and Gas Transactions Review 2012, deals worth US$402b were closed in the oil & gas sector last year, significantly higher than the US$337b in 2011. There were 92 transactions exceeding US$1b in 2012, compared with 71 in 2011, a further sign of confidence as corporates demonstrated a willingness to invest large sums in long-term projects. Major deals include the acquisition by CNOOC Ltd, a China National Offshore Oil Corporation subsidiary, of offshore group Nexen for US$15.1b. Despite a falloff in M&A activity in 2013 (as there has been in many sectors due to continued economic uncertainty — The oil and gas sector is changing. Capital Insights explores how corporates are seeking growth by consolidating and innovating Fueling growth
  • 21. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 21 Investing Optimizing Raising for more, see “The big picture,” page 32) and a cautious approach to additional investment by corporates, there have still been substantial deals. These include US company Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold buying offshore driller Plains Exploration and Production for US$10.8b in May, while in April, US company Hess sold its Russian assets to the country’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, for US$2b. “The industry has been blessed with quite a long period of relative stability with the commodity price at reasonably strong levels,” says Jon Clark, UK Leader for Oil & Gas Transaction Advisory Services at EY. “That has helped to build balance sheets in larger companies, but it has also made people feel more comfortable about making long-term capital commitments and investment decisions.” Capital constraints However, despite the positives, the industry faces challenges. Managing return on capital is one of the major issues with which the industry has been confronted, even in an environment where prices and demand have stayed high. A May 2013 Citigroup study, Investing for Commodity Uncertainty, found that the return on capital employed for 30 of the world’s largest oil companies fell to 9% in 2012. Between 2005 and 2008, figures show that return on capital averaged over 15%. That return could drop to 8% by 2015, if Brent crude prices fall below the US$100- per-barrel threshold. “There is no doubt that it is more costly to produce resources today than it was 20 years ago,” says Kevin Forbes, Partner at specialist oil and gas technology investor Epi-V. “There is a huge cost differential between a relatively simple drilling operation in Saudi Arabia and drilling under 10,000 feet of water in a deep-water project.” Finding new sources Discovering and producing reserves in more hostile conditions has been one of the major contributing factors to the pressure on return on capital. Government-backed national oil companies (NOCs) now control the bulk of the world’s oilfields — according to the BP Statistical Review, countries outside of the OECD now control 85% of the world’s proven reserves. A recent example of the growing strength of NOCs can be seen in China’s CNPC acquiring a 20% stake in Offshore Area 4 in Mozambique from Italy’s Eni for 1.1mbarrels per day is the forecast global demand growth for 2014, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Getty Images/Arnulf Husmo
  • 22. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY US$4.2b in July 2013. International oil companies, which used to control more than four-fifths of global reserves before the rise of NOCs, have had to look to difficult-to-access, deep-water assets and unconventional sources of energy, such as oil locked in shale and tar sands. For example, in September this year, US company Ensco took delivery of an ultra- deep-water drilling ship, ENSCO-DS7, which is set to become its fourth rig working in the West Africa deep-water market. A 2013 Goldman Sachs analysis of Europe’s largest oil and gas companies demonstrates how challenging it has been for some groups to improve return on capital when the sites are so difficult and technical. The investment bank found that 18% of the capital invested by Europe’s largest oil and gas companies has gone on projects that need the oil price to be US$80 or higher just to break even. Making the most of it Even though unconventional and deep- water oil and gas assets are pricier and more challenging to develop, exploiting these resources is essential if the world is to continue meeting the mounting demand for hydrocarbons. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the development of deep- water reserves, oil sands and shale gas is forecast to increase production from outside OPEC to 53 million barrels a day by 2015, up from fewer than 49 million barrels a day in 2011. By 2035, the IEA forecasts that unconventional gas will account for half the increase in global gas production. Unconventional resources have become key for oil companies, as they provide access to new reserves that are not controlled by the dominant NOCs. Many of these projects can be operated profitably thanks to improvements in technology, and supplies are plentiful. The EIA estimates that the world holds reserves of 345 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil and 7,299 trillion cubic feet of shale gas. This is a significant source of new assets for international oil companies, easing pressure to replace reserves. “The shale plays have made a very significant contribution to our business. These assets … provide tremendous optionality for ConocoPhillips,” said Matt Fox, Executive Vice President of Exploration and Production at US oil group ConocoPhillips, in its 2012 annual report. “They are resource rich, with years of scalable drilling inventory.” Brogan adds that another advantage of unconventional resources is that they provide oil companies with greater capital flexibility than plays in deep-water or traditional wells. “If you are in huge offshore assets operated by a consortium, [this] usually means that you are in assets that have very long lead times and very little flexibility about the capital you deploy once you have made the decision to go. Unconventionals are a good alternative to that, because you can scale those up and down quickly,” says Brogan. The only way is upstream The focus on return on capital among the oil companies, coupled with moves to make plays for deep-water and unconventional assets, have been the major drivers of oil and gas M&A recently. These priorities mean that the largest growth in investment is in upstream assets (operations involving exploration and production stages), where deal value increased by 68% to US$284b, according to EY’s Global Oil and Gas Transactions Review 2012. Upstream deals have continued to dominate deal activity in On the web For further insights watch our exclusive video on the oil and gas industry at www.capitalinsights.info/oilandgas Top three completed oil and gas M&A deals, October 2012—13 Completion Target Buyer Deal value MAR 2013 TNK-BP Holdings (50% stake)* Rosneft Oil Company OAO US$31.1b MAR 2013 TNK-BP Holdings (50% stake)** Rosneft Oil Company OAO US$28b FEB 2013 Nexen Inc CNOOC Ltd US$15.1b Source: Mergermarket *BP stake **AAR Consortium stake Advantage now comes from exceptional capability, rather than exceptional scale Carl Henric-Svanberg, Chairman, BP
  • 23. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 23 2 3 4 5 1 2013, with Royal Dutch Shell’s US$6.7b buyout of Repsol’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets one of the standout deals of the year. Activity in the downstream market (operations that take place after production through to retail), by contrast, has been slower, with downstream deal volumes falling 6% to 162 deals in 2012, and deal values staying flat at around US$42b. Oil companies have been eager to sell off downstream operations and focus on potentially more lucrative upstream plays. Examples from 2012 include Exxon Mobil selling its Japanese retail, refining and storage division, TonenGeneral Sekiyu, for US$3.9b, Statoil selling a 54% stake in its road- transport fuel retailer to Alimentation Couche-Tard, and BP selling its Carson refinery and Southern California refining and marketing business to Tesoro Corporation. Meanwhile, in September 2013, US oil company Chevron agreed to sell its downstream assets in Pakistan. “Downstream assets tend to have a lower unlevered return than upstream assets, so you have seen companies selling those assets or, at the most extreme end, completely splitting downstream and upstream,” says Brogan. The road ahead In a changing world, corporates in the oil and gas sector need to bear in mind the following factors when trying to compete: Return on capital. Although the oil price is trading at near- record highs and demand is increasing, return on capital is still a key area of focus as resources become more difficult and expensive to produce. “As the rocks that companies are producing oil from become progressively harder to get at or are more remote, and the focus on health, safety and environmental concerns becomes even greater, then the cost of developing them increases. Processes have become more technical and difficult. Deep-water is more expensive than shallow-water, and unconventional resources are more expensive than conventional,” says Brogan. Partner up. Partnerships have always played a large part in the industry, but the fact that many oil and gas fields have become more technically challenging to operate and require large capital investment has prompted an increase in joint ventures (JV) and strategic alliances between oil and gas companies to mitigate risk. “We are now entering a third era, where cooperation between partners is the key to unlocking the resources found in the most challenging locations,” said BP Chairman Carl- Henric Svanberg in the company’s latest annual report. A recent example of this is the JV deal announced in June 2013, between Pangean Energy and PetroTech Oil and Gas, which saw the companies enter a contract to buy mineral rights in the huge Bakken shale oil reserves in North Dakota. Upstream deals. The record M&A level in 2012 — particularly in upstream activity — demonstrates the importance of using acquisitions as a tool for breaking into new geographies and taking control of unconventional resources such as shale or deep-water. And, while 2013 has been quieter for M&A, there is reason for optimism. The second quarter of 2013 saw an improvement in upstream deals — although it was a modest one. According to Derrick Petroleum Services, volumes rose from 117 deals in Q1 to 141 in Q2, with value also rising from US$20.9b to US$24.9b. The indication is that the sector is still focusing on its core activities. Upstream deals are extremely key to positioning oil companies to achieve the best return on capital. “In an environment where capital is more constrained than in the past, companies have rightly focused on where they can get the best returns on that capital. Traditionally, the upstream segment of the market is where bigger returns on capital are possible,” says Clark. Invest in technology. Advances in technology have been the key enabler for companies developing difficult-to-reach assets. Without technological developments, production on many assets operating today would be impossible. This is set to be an ongoing theme — investing in technology, either internally or through acquisitions, will allow companies to produce with greater efficiency and open up new resources in the future. “Oil companies are making returns on capital on difficult assets, which they could never have made economical 20 years ago,” says Forbes. “Given the recent technological breakthroughs, there is every chance the industry can continue to open up hard-to-access reserves in the future.” Quality not quantity. Producing as much as possible used to be the main focus for international oil companies. Now, with the focus on return on capital, quality, as well as scale of production, is the priority. “For BP, advantage now comes from exceptional capability rather than exceptional scale. Our future is about high-margin, high-quality production, not simply volume,” said BP’s Svanberg in the annual report. Indeed, technical ability and high margins are likely to remain crucial, as oil companies rely more on deep-water and unconventional reserves to replace oil stocks and meet the world’s ever-increasing energy needs. For further insight, please email editor@capitalinsights.info Oil and gas in numbers 405.6b Cubic meters of natural gas imported into Western Europe in 2012, a fall of 2.2% year-on-year. Source: Opec 1.8% The growth in global primary oil consumption in 2012. Source: BP Statistical Review 1m Barrels a day growth in US oil production, the largest in the world, in 2012. Source: BP Statistical Review 23.9% Natural gas’s share of global primary energy consumption in 2012. Source: BP Statistical Review 10.2m Barrels a day produced by Saudi Arabia in August — the highest on IEA record. Source: IEA EY/Shutterstock/istock
  • 24. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY All the right elements What does it take to get due diligence right and make sure your deal is the best it can be? C hief executives received a severe warning this year about the risk inherent in M&A activity. In January, mining giant Rio Tinto revealed multibillion dollar writedowns on its 2011 purchase of Mozambique coal explorer Riversdale Mining. This had been put down to a lack of infrastructure oversight. Indeed, even Rio itself admitted to overestimating the challenges. “In Mozambique, the development of infrastructure to support the coal assets [was] more challenging than Rio Tinto originally anticipated,” it said in a statement at the time. This type of situation highlights the often unseen variables during and after a deal. Mindful of this, a thorough and integrated due diligence (DD) process is more vital than ever in today’s volatile economic environment, whether corporates are doing deals in developed or emerging markets (EM). “You need to have an investigative mindset and be clear on the investment thesis,” says Steve Ivermee, EMEIA Transaction Support Leader at EY. “You need to be professionally skeptical without being negative. You have to be able to identify and quantify risk; few profitable opportunities come at zero risk.” It’s all about value The fastest-growing corporates will be those that focus on the opportunities for creating value through acquisitions. And that means putting value creation right at the heart of DD. “Companies such as GE and Cisco, which do a lot of acquisitions, have a value creation approach built into their mentality,” says William Gole, co-author of Due Diligence: an M&A Value Creation Approach. “One of the most difficult problems encountered when evaluating acquisitions is estimating potential value-creating synergies.” Key insights • Value creation needs to be at the heart of the due diligence (DD) process and corporates need to explore the potential synergies early in the process. • A fully-integrated approach to DD is vital. Areas such as human resources (HR) and information technology (IT), where relevant, should not be overlooked as they can enhance value creation. • Taking a co-ordinated approach can ensure that important aspects of the process are not overlooked. • DD differs markedly in emerging markets — an even greater focus on areas such as tax and legal compliance is needed in order to successfully complete a transaction. • DD should be ongoing. Governance must not stop on signing. For instance, nearly half of respondents in EY’s 2012 Global M&A tax survey and trends report said one of the main factors affecting the delivery of post-deal tax synergies was that the tax function wasn’t brought into the deal early enough. As such, they are denied the chance to identify these synergies. This is particularly salient in markets where growth is scarce.“Given the low-growth environment in many mature markets,” says Ivermee, “deal-makers need to be clear about how synergies and operational efficiencies are going to be delivered.” Getting integrated The key to completing DD that identifies these opportunities, and then seizes them, is to approach the process in an integrated fashion. While corporates must always delve deeply into the financial and operational side DD (for five key steps, see “Covering your bases,” p26), a more integrated method allows other key areas to be analyzed. This means performing DD, where relevant, on the target’s culture, regulatory environment, intellectual property, HR, management, IT infrastructure and corporate social responsibility record. For example, the importance of HR issues should not be overlooked. A 2012 report, Human Capital Risk in Mergers and Acquisitions, produced for the Canadian
  • 25. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 25 Financial Executives Research Foundation, found that 87% of those companies that were very successful or fairly successful in M&A activity identified key talent to retain during the DD process (87% and 85%, respectively) while only 58% of less successful companies did this. IT is another area in which many corporates can improve in the DD process. EY’s 2011 IT as a driver of M&A success report showed that just half of respondents conduct separate IT DD on deals, while only 21% of corporates consider IT-related issues during the valuation process. The issue with many deals is that these areas don’t get probed thoroughly enough because the DD operation either hasn’t been set up properly or the vendor does not allow the buyer to investigate these issues to an optimum level. If the latter is the case, the buyer needs to have a three-point plan. First, they should focus on issues that need to be properly understood and evidenced. Second, the buyer must be clear on what is non-negotiable about its DD needs, and finally, they can take calculated risks on certain topics. For those in the former camp, they could do worse than take lessons from one FTSE 250 company, with which Ivermee has worked closely, that has performed several successful acquisitions. The business starts its DD by bringing together all the key players from its operating divisions and cross-corporate functional units, such as HR, tax and accounting, as well as its CEO and CFO. Alongside external advisors, they spend a day discussing the potential acquisition. The meeting achieves many objectives, according to Ivermee, who has taken part as an advisor. “You get everyone on the same page as to what’s on the CEO’s and CFO’s minds,” he says. “Everyone is clear about the corporate risk appetite and investment thesis and what that means for their areas of focus in the DD process that ensues. During the meeting, we also find the linkages between the workstreams that need to take place during DD. The whole process starts off with good communication between everyone involved. It’s better than having separate DD activities reporting into a central point and relying on that central point to spot the connections between the different streams, which they don’t always do.” Creativity is the cure A creative and co-ordinated DD process can overcome the ‘box-ticking’ that often leads to important aspects being overlooked. “Typically, if there is malfeasance within the business, it’s going to be designed to avoid the normal means of detection,” says Charles M. Elson, Director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware. “That’s why the checklist mentality is a problem. If you’re creative, you think around the checklist and you’re more likely to come up with issues.” In addition, this approach also makes it easier to cope with collating and analyzing the volume of information the DD team uncovers. “The cure for this problem is clarity of scope for the DD,” says Jonny Myers, a Partner at the law firm Clifford Chance. “You must create a detailed scope and a timetable, and set up reporting lines with a point person co-ordinating the work.” And DD should not just be about looking backwards. James Grebey, author of Operations Due Diligence, feels that it’s vital to explore the target’s potential. “Good operations DD should be a full enterprise-wide assessment, not just past performance. It should explore issues such as personnel, production capability, and infrastructure management,” he says. This can be seen in eBay’s purchase of PayPal in 2002 for US$1.5b. At the time, eBay CEO Meg Whitman spoke of the potential synergies. “Together, we can improve the user experience and make online trading more compelling,” she said. “We can also capture greater value from the e-commerce opportunities occurring both on and off our site.” Eleven years later, PayPal’s Q2 2013 revenues are US$1.6b, growing over a fifth year on year, and represented 42% of eBay’s entire revenues for that period. Preserving Investing of respondents noted themselves as effective at handling DD. This figure was just 17% in the US. 47% 17% (Source: Clifford Chance, Cross-border M&A: Perspectives on a changing world) ©iStock.com/Steve Cole
  • 26. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY Emerging issues When it comes to DD in EM deals, an even more thorough approach must be taken. A 2013 survey by Mergermarket and Merrill DataSite entitled The future of M&A in the Americas, found that nearly 40% of respondents felt that DD in EMs would become more difficult in the coming 12 months. The Asia-Pacific and Middle East and North Africa regions were picked out as the regions where DD would require more attention than usual. In EMs, it is widely acknowledged that both corporates and private equity (PE) buyers need to conduct weightier DD into tax, financial and legal areas. However, according to the aforementioned Mergermarket survey, these can be the most challenging aspects of the DD process. Seventy percent of respondents expected legal compliance to be the most significant challenge for buyers, with the availability of relevant financial and operating data coming second (58%). Covering your bases EY’s Charles Honnywill outlines five vital steps that corporates need to take when carrying out financial and operational due diligence This highlights the need for companies to rely on advisers with local expertise to provide them with a knowledgeable, on-the-ground assessment of the risks. “You don’t know how the market will develop, and you may not have comparable companies against which your deals should be judged,” says Konstanze Nardi, Partner at EY’s German member firm. “Everything is new, you must be alert and focus on what is critical for the investment thesis to get the value out of the deal.” Although financial and tax DD are paramount, acquirers still need to take a detailed and integrated approach. This will give them a better understanding of the target, including its reputation, political connections and how it deals with issues such as corruption. Whether an acquisition is happening in a developed or an emerging market, DD is a vital part of the M&A process. It can open up new avenues for growth, but it must be an ongoing process. As Ivermee says: “The best transactions are the ones in which a company is constantly reassessing why they’re doing the deal, and doing that at frequent stages throughout the DD.” For further insight, please email editor@capitalinsights.info On the web For more on due diligence, watch our exclusive video with EY professionals at www.capitalinsights.info/duediligence Charles Honnywill is European Head of Sell Side Services, Transaction Advisory Services, EY The equity case. Focus on the return on equity that the acquisition is expected to generate. The equity case leads to a series of key issues that should drive the scope and focus of the DD. In practice, too many corporates arrange the DD around the people that are involved in the process (and the particular issues that they see from their areas of responsibility). Corporates need to investigate the issues that will determine whether the acquisition meets the equity case. Make sense of cash flows. Corporates often focus on profit, less on cashflow. Remember that profit is the result of accounting policies and practices, so it is often subjective. Cash is not an accountant’s “construct.” When the DD is done, can you articulate how cash flows through the business and correlates to the claimed profit levels? Focus on the top line. Corporates often focus on costs and balance sheet risks in the business, but many DD processes fail to fully evidence the reasons for, and drivers of, revenue and margins. Detail at a product and customer level is critical. Test the deal “structures.” There are five questions that need attention during DD: What are the key commercial agreements? How will the acquisition fit operationally? What is the financial structure and what are the implications for “day one” financing, completion accounts and ongoing working capital? What is the tax plan and the legal structure to deliver it? What are the regulatory constructs that the deal may need to meet for oversight bodies? Govern well. Governance over the DD process must not stop on signing. From then until completion, value continues to be at risk or available to the alert buyer. Well- drilled sellers will catch out the buyer that loses focus.
  • 27. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 27 © Paul Heartfield After a tough few years, it seems the IPO window has reopened. This is good news for some of the largest private equity-backed companies A s the macroeconomic backdrop slowly improves, so the window for initial public offerings (IPOs) has reopened, with Europe in particular seeing a warming of investor sentiment toward new offerings after a big chill. The first half of this year saw 306 IPOs globally, raising US$57.8b, according to EY’s quarterly publication, Private equity, public exits. The EMEA region witnessed 66 IPOs in H1 2013, raising US$11.5b — a near 70% increase on the first half of 2012. Increasing confidence in public markets is having a positive effect on private equity (PE)’s ability to take portfolio companies public. PE-backed deals accounted for more than one-third of the total proceeds raised by all global IPOs in H1 2013. The second quarter had a particularly strong showing, with 43 PE-backed IPOs raising US$13.6b, an increase of 70% over Q1, when US$8b was raised. And, on top of this, there are currently more than 50 PE-backed companies in the IPO pipeline, with the potential to raise more than US$13.7b, our research shows. This development is important for PE, as it provides a boost to the exit prospects of large portfolio companies. Our study of 2012 exits from European PE portfolios, Myths and challenges, which tracks PE-backed businesses with an entry enterprise value (EV) of €150m (US$198m) and above, found there were just three public exits in 2012. This is one factor contributing to the increase in holding periods of PE portfolios. The average in our sample is now 4.7 years, up from 3.5 years in 2006. Our research also shows that there are around 100 companies in Europe’s PE portfolio with an entry EV of €1b (US$1.3b) and above. For a number of these, an IPO is one of the few viable exit options, particularly as many corporate buyers continue to remain circumspect about making acquisitions. Big IPO exits in Europe this year include CVC Capital Partners’ offering of Belgian postal services business bpost, which raised more than US$1b, and insurer esure, backed by Penta Capital Partners and Electra Partners, which also raised over US$1b. In the pipeline, among others, are Carlyle, Cinven and Altice-backed cable company Numericable, and theme park operator Merlin Entertainments, backed by Blackstone Group and CVC. Appetite among investors appears to stretch across all sectors. If the IPO drought really is ending, the after-market performance of PE-backed companies will help to get other new issues away. In the first half of this year, our research shows 75% of PE-backed IPOs were priced within or above their expected ranges, with an average 11.2% increase over their offer price through to the end of June. Indeed, EY’s research into technology sector PE-backed IPOs, Right team, right story, right price, found that attractive pricing ranked highest as a requirement for new issues for institutional investors, cited by more than 90% of respondents. There is no doubt that getting the initial pricing right is key in today’s market — investors need to be confident there is still an upside in new issues. Successful IPO candidates also need other attributes to attract high levels of interest. Ranking second was a compelling equity story (65%) that includes growth prospects, and third, confidence in management (57%). The outlook is good for PE-backed IPOs. There is a strong pipeline and investors appear to be welcoming high-quality new issues in the market, as long as they are priced attractively. And, for some of PE’s largest companies, this may be the only exit route. But, as long as the IPO window remains open, it looks as if this wave of new PE issues will continue. Sachin Date is the Private Equity Leader for EMEIA at EY. For further insight, please email sachin@capitalinsights.info The IPO agenda The PE perspective Sachin Date
  • 28. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at EY From large corporates to small retailers, each family business is unique. But the best often share common characteristics. We explore how they grow, the key challenges they face and what others can learn Key insights • Long-term management and clear succession plans have helped family businesses grow. • Family businesses often eschew short-term goals that help preserve the business in the long run. • A focus on innovation helped family businesses come through the recession. • Family businesses are growing not only through M&A, but also via third-party companies and franchises, in order to maintain control of the main brand. • When it comes to raising capital, family businesses need to weigh up the need for capital against the dilution of ownership: private equity or alternative financing could be the solution. ties The that bind I n the age of the exit-focused entrepreneur and the shareholder- controlled public company, it’s easy to forget the importance of family businesses to the global economy. In its June 2012 report on the sector, Built to last, EY noted that family-owned businesses account for around 60% of all companies in Europe and the US, and about half of employment. Elsewhere in the world, family businesses are just as prevalent. For instance, the Credit Suisse Asian Family Business report from 2011 found that across the 10 Asian countries covered, they accounted for 32% of market capitalization. And they have proved resilient in the face of difficult economic conditions. EY’s Built to last survey found that 60% of respondents had grown by 5% or more in the year to June 2012, while a sixth reported growth of 15% or more. Yet, despite these stellar figures, family companies face real challenges. Succession is a perennial issue, as is the dilution of ownership or influence when finance is raised. And lately, businesses in developed markets have been facing fierce competition from emerging market peers. But these businesses have shown that a long-term focus, investment in innovation and smart capital-raising methods can help overcome these obstacles. And other corporates need to take note. Playing the long game Peter Englisch, Global Leader of EY’s Family Business Center of Excellence, says the sector tlGettyImages/HultonArchive/StringerclGettyImages/E.O.HoppeblBishop’sMovetrBloombergviaGettyImagescrGettyImages/SeanGallupbrBishop’sMove
  • 29. www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 8 | Q4 2013 | 29 Family businesses that are focusing expansion plans on new products and services, according to EY’s Built to last survey Proportion of listed companies belonging to family business groups – by country Sri Lanka 66.7% Indonesia 29.7% Turkey 50% Greece 20% Colombia 48.2% India 29.3% Philippines 46% Mexico 26.2% Chile 46.2% Belgium 24.4% Source: Masulis, Pham, Zein: Family Business Groups around the World: Financing Advantages, Control Motivations and Organizational Choices (2011) is characterized by a dynastic will. “What we see in family businesses are plans to ensure that ownership of the company will be passed down to the next generation,” he says. This is borne out in EY’s Built to last report, where over half of respondents said that a long-term management perspective was one of the most important factors for ongoing business success. Sometimes, this can be achieved over many generations. A case in point is Bishop’s Move, the UK’s largest private removals group, now in its sixth generation of family ownership. Five years ago, the company took on its first outside CEO, Alistair Bingle, with family members Nigel and Roger Bishop as Joint Chairmen. “As new generations enter, many move out of the business and seek other professional situations. We bring family members onto the board when they show a clear intent that they want to be involved,” says Nigel Bishop, who is also the company’s Franchise Director. Family firms’ long-term view can be seen in their response to the recession, says Englisch. “Family-owned companies didn’t respond by downsizing. Instead, they used the downturn to invest in people,” he says. “And, when economic conditions improved, they re-emerged as full, highly motivated workforces.” Motivating workers appears to be embedded in the DNA of family-owned companies. According to a June 2013 study by the UK’s Institute of Family Business Research Foundation, Family Business People Capital, people working in family- owned companies scored higher across several indicators (including sense of achievement and scope to use initiative) than those working in other types of business. Seventy-eight percent of respondents described themselves as loyal to the business, compared with 74% in the non-family sector. It’s a picture recognized by Bishop: “Within our company, we ensure staff feel that they are being looked after,” he says. “One of the benefits is that we succeed in retaining people for a considerable length of time, and they are loyal staff.” Growth patterns When it comes to investing, family businesses are focusing on innovation and traditional M&A, as well as alternative growth models, such as franchising and third-party investment. In terms of innovation, the Institute of Small Business Research in Germany found that, at the height of the Eurozone crisis, nearly half of German family-run companies turning over more than €50m (US$67.6m) were investing more in their business and focusing on innovation. And, according to Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, 54% of the country’s Mittelstand businesses — overwhelmingly family-owned and managed — introduced new products between 2008 and 2010. In an interview last year, Hartmut Jenner, Chief Executive of Kärcher, a family-owned German cleaning equipment company, saw innovation as key to the company’s growth. “We have 600 development engineers and now sell 3,000 products, which is 50% more than five years ago,” he said. “I think this provides a good base for the next few years.” In addition, the most dynamic of family firms can also be enthusiastically acquisitive. India’s Tata is a case in point. The company has acquired businesses and stakes across a diverse commercial landscape, including telecommunication company BT’s Mosaic business in 2010, potash development firm EPM Mining (30.6% stake in 2011) and consultancy Alti in July this year. According to Ajay Bhalla, Professor of Global Innovation Management at Cass Business School, Asian firms’ expansion and diversification are tied to the family logic of the owners. “Buying up companies and diversifying offers a way to provide a new generation the opportunity to gain experience outside the core business and stay united under the family umbrella,” he says. There are also alternative growth models to consider. For instance, Bishop’s Move has expanded by signing up franchise partners that operate under the brand, while On the web For more on family businesses, read the EY Built to last report at www.capitalinsights.info/familybusiness Investing Optimizing Raising 50% Shutterstock