1. WORLD FOOD SECURITY:
NEW RISKS AND
OPPORTUNITIES
Joachim von Braun
Ottawa, March 23, 2004
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

2. 2003/4 Strategic Issues facing IFPRI
1. Future food systems risks and challenges
2. Political system changes and governance
problems
3. International trade and investment
4. Consumer and food industry-driven food
systems
5. Deficiencies in pro-poor food and agricultural
technology
6. Health crises, diet change, nutrition
7. Gender inequality and other discrimination
8. Pro-poor management of natural resources
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3. Hunger in Developing World, with
and without China
Developing World
950
920 Developing w orld
900
w ithout China
Millions Undernourished
850
800 817
798
750 780
700
650
663
600 624 635
616
550
500
1979-81 1990-92 1995-1997 1999-2001
Source: FAO, SOFI 2003
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4. Chronic Undernutrition in Africa
Developing
17%
World
Sub Saharan
33%
Africa
Burundi 70%
DR Congo 75%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
% of undernourishment
Source: FAO SOFI 2003
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5. Old risks and New risks
for food security
 Old: Production, Stockholding,
Availability, Prices, “bad” Policies,
“Shocks”
 New: Complex Vulnerabilities of the
Poor
 THE RISK: Combinations of old and
new Risks
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6. New risks
for food and nutrition security
 Conflicts: High correlation between conflict
and food insecurity.
 HIV/AIDS: Affects 29.4 million people in
SSA.
 Natural Resources Degradation: Declining
soil fertility, declining access to water - food
and nutrition crisis?
 Hidden Hunger: 3.5 billion in developing
world are iron deficient. Towards “Harvest
Plus”
Many of the poor more vulnerable
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7. Old? World Grain Market:
Cereal Production 1960-2003
1900
1700
1500
million tons
1300
1100
900
700
500
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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8. Old? World Cereal Stocks, 1960-2003
700
600
500
million tons
400
300
200
100
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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9. Old? World Cereal Prices, 1998-2004
M aize and Wheat International Prices
165
Maize
155 Wheat
145
135
U$S/Ton
125
115
105
95
85
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Rice International Price
320
300
280
U$S/Ton
260
240
220
200
180
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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10. Scenarios of IMPACT Model: 2050
Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural
Development
Policy Failure Scenario:
Trade and Political Conflict, Rise in
Protectionism Worldwide
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Scenario:
Adverse Technology/Natural Resource
Interactions
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11. World Cereal Area
900 Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
800
Million ha
700
600
1997 2015 2030 2050
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12. World Cereal Production
Progressive Policy Actions
3,500 Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
3,000
million mt
2,500
2,000
1,500
1997 2015 2030 2050
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13. Price of Maize
Progressive Policy Actions
190 Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
170
US$/metric ton
150
130
110
90
70
1997 2015 2030 2050
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14. Global per capita MEAT Demand
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource M anagement Failure
60
kg/capita
45
30
15
1997 2015 2030 2050
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15. Number of Malnourished Children,
Developing World
200
180
160
140
Million children
120
100
80
60 Progressive Policy Actions
40 Policy Failure
20 Technology and Resource Management
Failure
0
1997 2015 2030 2050
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16. Increased commitment to improve
food security
 International Initiatives
• Millennium Development Goals
• World Bank Rural Strategy 2002
 Regional Initiatives
• NEPAD
 National Governments
• Most food insecure countries have
initiated new policies to enhance food
security in their countries
• But little change in their budgets
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17. Trade: WTO negotiations
 Subsidies in developed countries
 High tariffs and other trade barriers
in developed and developing countries
Distort agricultural trade and hinder
progress on food security.
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18. Visible Northern Trade Barriers
US and EU
 Agricultural tariffs: 4-5 times those
on manufactured goods
 Tariffs escalate on high value and
processed goods
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19. Hidden Northern Trade Barriers
Sanitary, and phytosanitary,
environmental, and social
requirements can often act as non-
tariff barriers
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20. Trade: How to re-start ?
 Reform of WTO rules and northern
agricultural policies is not enough.
 Developing-country governments
must also reform their own market
and trade policies.
Agriculture Exports are a dynamic force
for poverty reduction
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21. IMPACT: Net Cereal Trade
Developing Countries
0
1997 2015 2030 2050
-50
-100
million mt
-150
-200
Progressive Policy Actions
-250 Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management
-300 Failure
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22. Success Stories
Small farmers in
• East Africa
• Central America
• Vietnam
have entered global fruit and vegetable
markets
Access to Supermarkets?
Less poverty and more staple food
production.
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23. IFPRI’s Strategy
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24. 2003 global and country-level research
and outreach
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25. IFPRI’s Food Policy Research
Framework
Partners, CGIAR, Influence
Research stakeholders on policies
Capacity
strengthening
Policymakers,
media, opinion Impact on
Policy leaders, and poor
communication IFPRI people
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26. Strategic Directions
Global Food
System
Functioning
Global and
National Global Food
Food System System
Governance Innovations
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27. New ways of business: decentralized
IFPRI
Beijing
New Delhi
San Jose
Addis Ababa
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28. Selected 2003/4 Research & Outreach
 HarvestPlus (with CIAT etc.)
 Program for Biosafety Systems
 Pathways out of Poverty and Safety
Nets
 Trade policy (global, regional, national)
 IFPRI-ILRI Livestock market policy
 NEPAD cooperation in Africa (MOU)
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29. Facilitating Innovation and Quality
 External Reviews of IFPRI
 Ex-ante reviews of projects
 Impact assessment research at IFPRI
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30. Capacity Strengthening
General approach:
 Training and capacity strengthening
integrated with our research
Exploring new types of activities:
 Collaborative Masters Program agr. econ. in
Africa
 CGIAR-Global Open University on
Agricultural and Food (planning)
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31. Policy Communications
 Policy Dialogues (e.g. food safety;
biotech)
 All –Africa IFPRI 2020 Conference
in Uganda
 China-India dialogue
 Meeting policymakers one-on-one
 Reaching out through media
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32. Food Policy Communication
Synthesizing IFPRI’s research
Layperson Press Release
Interested Issue Brief
Insider Food Policy Report
Expert Research Report
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33. IFPRI-Canada Cooperation
 IDRC helped established IFPRI 30
years ago
 Canadian experts – IFPRI’s Board
of Trustees
 Canadian Researchers – IFPRI staff
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