World Rice Research Conference Tokyo, Japan, November 4, 2004

1. The Changing Economics and Politics of Rice:
Implications for Food Security, Globalization,
and Environmental Sustainability
Joachim von Braun
Director General, IFPRI
World Rice Research Conference
Tokyo, Japan, November 4, 2004

2. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview

3. The role of rice at a crossroad
Cultural roots, poverty,
locale tastes and production
Globalization, new science, new tastes

4. Main questions
What patterns of rice demand in the
future?
What future of rice technology?
Why is rice not very affected by
globalization and will this remain so?
What future role of government and
private sector in the rice systems?

5. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview

6. Rice and Food Security
Percentage of calories from rice in diet
1970 1980 1990 2001
Asia 38 36 35 31
South America 11 11 12 11
Africa 5 7 7 8
United States 1 1 2 2
European Union 1 1 1 2
World 20 19 21 21
Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)

7. Changing demand for rice
1. At higher incomes:
 people diversify diet away from rice,
 shift towards higher quality of rice.
2. Population growth increases the demand
for rice,
3. Growing urbanization lowers demand
for rice
4. Prices matter for the poor

8. “Favorable Abundance Infinitely”, Chee Wang Ng

9. Rice and poverty
 Rice consumption and production are closely
linked to poverty
 Rice as agent of change to get out of poverty
 Rice is the main staple food of the poor
 Rice is a major source of income and
employment for rural people, especially in Asia
 Rice is healthy, but can become more so: bio-
fortified rice to improve the quality of the diet
of the poor

10. Rice research reduces poverty
India China
Number of
poor reduced
from rice
research
(million)
Reduction
as a % of
total poor
(%)
Number of
poor reduced
from rice
research
(million)
Reduction
as a % of
total poor
(%)
1991 4.9 2.1 5.2 5.5
1999 3.1 1.9 1.5 4.5
Source: Fan et al. IFPRI 2003

11. Photo by Kyaw Swar Tun, Myanmar (IYR Photo Contest)

12. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview

13. Production and world price trends
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000White Broken Rice, Thai A1
Super, f.o.b Bangkok
Production (milled)
Source: USDA PS&D Database (2004); and FAO Commodities
and Trade Division (2004)

14. Distribution of rice ecosystems
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AsiaLatinAmerica
Africa
Australia
USA
Europe
W
orld
Deepwater
Upland
Rainfed lowland
Irrigated
Source: World Rice Statistics, IRRI (September 2004)

15. Environmental Issues
 Water use efficiency of irrigated rice is low,
requiring large amounts of water
 Pesticides and fertilizer, loss of biodiversity,
pests, depletion of natural soil fertility
 Complex interactions with climate change and
land use

16. Yield patterns and developments
 The potential to increase yield in rainfed
ecosystems is still vast (positive impact on
poorest farmers in low income countries)
 Important scientific breakthroughs have enabled
less favored areas to improve productivity (e.g.
IRRI’s drought tolerant varieties, hybrid rice in
China, and NERICA in Africa)

17. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview

18. Rice: multiple functions of a strategic
commodity in a difficult market
Due to its importance in the diet of the poor
and main source of income for farmers
Rice markets are thin, concentrated, volatile:
Governments intervene to avoid instability
Historically, policies maintained stable
prices for consumers in urban areas and
subsidize farmers

19. Rise of the private sector
Activities traditionally carried put by
government are increasingly being transferred
to the private sector, e.g. stockholding
International trade activities are moving
towards private traders,
The influence of large state trading companies
is diminishing

20. Rice export price, 1983-2004 (Thailand)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
US$/Ton
White Rice, Thai 100% B second grade, f.o.b. Bangkok

21. New support policies for rice in
developing countries
Producer Support Estimates %
1992 2002
India -25 +40
Indonesia +11 +46
Viet Nam -11 +32
Sources: Mullen, Gulati, and Orden (2004); Thomas and
Orden (2004) and Sun (2003) at IFPRI

22. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview

23. Scenario analysis for alternative
policy developments
1. Progressive Policy Actions Scenario:
New Focus on Agricultural Growth and
Rural Development
2. Policy Failure Scenario:
Trade and Political Conflict, rise in
protectionism worldwide
3. Technology and Resource Management
Failure Scenario:
Adverse technology/natural resource
interactions

24. World rice demand scenarios
350,000
390,000
430,000
470,000
510,000
550,000
590,000
1997 2015 2030 2050
('000mt,milledrice)
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)

25. Rice yield scenarios
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1997 2015 2030 2050
Kg/ha
Progressive PolicyActions
PolicyFailure
Technologyand Resource Management Failure
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)

26. Scenarios of world price of rice
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1997 2015 2030 2050
U$S/t
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (September 2004)

27. Sharon Oliver United Kingdom , IYR Photo Contest

28. PERCENTAGE of children malnourished
10
15
20
25
30
35
1997 2015 2030 2050
Percentageofmalnourished
children
Progressive Policy Actions
Policy Failure
Technology and Resource Management Failure

29. 1. The global context of rice
2. Consumption patterns of rice
3. Rice production and technology
4. Political economy of rice, markets and
trade
5. Future scenarios for rice: Towards 2050
6. Concluding ideas and way forward
Overview

30. Conclusions
1. Rice continues to be crucial for food and
nutrition security.
2. Feeding the growing population requires
increased yields. Sustainable rice
production requires new technology
3. There is an international moral
responsibility of high income countries
with advanced rice science to share that
with poorer nations

31. 4. The need for efficiency in globalization.
Rice policies shift towards less
government intervention
5. Rice remains an agent of change in
societal and economic development. Rice-
culture has modernized but certainly not
vanished.
Rice: a factor of healthy sustainability
in globalization.
Conclusions

32. “The Great Laughter”, Chee Wang Ng