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Forest Investment Attractiveness Index:
Usefulness for Sector Management
Dr. José Rente Nascimento
Inter-American Development Bank
Side event to the
24th Session of the Latin American and Caribbean Forestry Commission
26th June 2006, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Inter-American Development Bank

Nr. 1
Overview
I- IDB in one minute
II- IAIF
– Objectives
– Usefulness
– Model

III- Results
– Sub Indices
– Supra, Inter,
– Intra
IV- PROMECIF and
IAIF Evolution

Inter-American Development Bank

#2
I- IDB

I
Inter-American
Development
Bank
Inter-American Development Bank

#3
I- IDB

Basic Facts: the IDB Group
IDB Group: IDB (1959); IIC (1989); MIF (1992); and PRI
(1994)
Oldest and largest regional multilateral development bank
Largest source of development finance for Latin America
– Approved over $ 118 billion in loans
– Total cost of projects: $281 billion

46 Member countries
- 26 Borrowing (50 % of the shares)

Inter-American Development Bank

#4
II- IAIF

II
IAIF

Inter-American Development Bank

#5
II- IAIF

IAIF - Objectives
General objective: To measure the business climate
for investments in the sustainable forest business.
The IAIF allows the systematic, periodic,
quantitative and more rigorous analyses of the
factors that affect the success of forest direct
investment and business decision-making.
Inter-American Development Bank

#6
II- IAIF

IAIF principal clients
•

International investors and entrepreneurs

•

Domestic investors and entrepreneurs

•

Governments (national, regional or local)

•

National and international NGOs

•

Bilateral and multilateral donors

Inter-American Development Bank

#7
II- IAIF

The IAIF is useful for
•

•

•

representing the forest business climate as a single
number per nation
initial screening BY INVESTORS of countries
with best investment climate for sustainable forest
businesses
facilitating a more precise and constructive
dialogue about forest business climate issues
among stakeholders
Inter-American Development Bank

#8
II- IAIF

The IAIF is useful for
•

•

•

setting priorities among policy areas by
governments interested in improving their forest
business climate
monitoring the success of policy interventions on
specific indicators
identifying issues where national performance is
above or below expectations or aspirations

Inter-American Development Bank

#9
II- IAIF

The IAIF is useful for
•

serving as a working framework to encourage
research, debate, dialogue, and learning.

•

clarifying policy and investment tradeoffs

•

designing intervention strategies and better define
goals, programs, and policies

Inter-American Development Bank

# 10
II- IAIF

The IAIF allows comparisons of
countries, regions, years, indicators,
sub-indexes, such as
Among nations in a given year
Country’s performance trends over time
Country’s performance in relation to neighbors
or sub region for given year
Subindex performance and trends

Inter-American Development Bank

# 11
II- IAIF

The IAIF allows analysis of:
Contribution to IAIF
Contribution to IAIF

Measured
Measured

(weighted)
(weighted)

(real)
(real)

Differential
Differential
(potential improvement)
(potential improvement)

Potential
Potential
(potential maximum)
(potential maximum)

Inter-American Development Bank

Simulations
Simulations

# 12
II- IAIF

IAIF – Basic hypothesis

Inter-American Development Bank

# 13
II- IAIF

Methodology – 3 Sub indexes

Inter-American Development Bank

# 14
II- IAIF

Sub index – SUPRA sectorial factors

Inter-American Development Bank

# 15
II- IAIF

Sub index – INTER sectorial factors

Inter-American Development Bank

# 16
II- IAIF

Sub index – INTRA sectorial factors

Inter-American Development Bank

# 17
II- IAIF
Methodology
20 indicators; >80 variables

Inter-American Development Bank

# 18
II- IAIF
IAIF and Sustainability

Inter-American Development Bank

# 19
II- IAIF

Sources of information
•

•

Secondary data and indexes (World Bank, FAO,
World Economic Forum, etc.)
Primary information through surveys
–
–
–
–

Agriculture policies
Planting and harvesting restrictions
Adverse actions
Favorable supports

Inter-American Development Bank

# 20
III- Results

III
IAIF Results
2002
Inter-American Development Bank

# 21
III- Results
IAIF Real (measured) - 2002

Inter-American Development Bank

# 22
III- Results
Real – Potential - Differential

Inter-American Development Bank

# 23
III- Results

IAIF – Real for Best Performers
Brasil

60
53

Chile
Argentina

44

Uruguay

44

Costa Rica

41

Mexico

40

Colombia

40
0

10

20

30

40

Inter-American Development Bank

50

60

70
# 24
III- Results

IAIF – Highest Potential
99

Brasil
86

Mexico
81

Colombia
Argentina

79

Venezuela

78

Peru

78
75

Bolivia

Inter-American Development Bank

# 25
III- Results
Possible improvement over
current levels (%)
México

115
101

Colombia
Argentina

81
69

Costa Rica

66

Brasil

60

Uruguay
Chile

39

Inter-American Development Bank

# 26
III- Results

SubIndex SUPRA
51

Brasil

76

Chile
Argentina

50

Uruguay

50
77

Costa Rica
69

Mexico

66

Colombia
0

20

40

60

Inter-American Development Bank

80

100
# 27
III- Results

SubIndex INTER
46

Brasil

63

Chile
46

Argentina

57

Uruguay
Costa Rica

51

Mexico

51

Colombia

50
0

20

40

Inter-American Development Bank

60

80
# 28
III- Results

Sub Index INTRA
Brasil

69

Chile

42

Argentina

41

Uruguay

36

Costa Rica

27

Mexico

27
29

Colombia
0

10

20

30

40

Inter-American Development Bank

50

60

70

80
# 29
III- Results

INTER vs INTRA
Brasil
Chile
Argentina
INTRA

Uruguay

INTER

Costa Rica
Mexico
Colombia
0

20

40

Inter-American Development Bank

60

80
# 30
III- Results

IAIF – Sub Indexes
Brasil
Chile
Argentina

IAIF
INTRA

Uruguay

INTER
SUPRA

Costa Rica
Mexico
Colombia
0

20

40

60

Inter-American Development Bank

80

100
# 31
III- Results

INTER-Sector Indicators – Sample
Prop. Rig.

Argentina
Brasil
Chile

Labour

Colombia
Costa Rica
México
Uruguay

Ec. Infrast.

0

25

50

Inter-American Development Bank

75

100
# 32
III- Results

INTRA-Sector Indicators
Dom. Market

Argentina
Brasil
Chile

FVL

Colombia
Costa Rica
México
Uruguay

For. Res

0

20

40

60

Inter-American Development Bank

80

100
# 33
III- Results

Perception Indicators
Argentina
Brasil
Ag. Policies

Chile

Restrictions

Colombia

Adverse

Costa Rica

Supportive

México
Uruguay
0

20

40

60

Inter-American Development Bank

80

100
# 34
IV- PROMECIF

IV
PROMECIF and
IAIF Evolution
Inter-American Development Bank

# 35
IV- PROMECIF

What is PROMECIF?
Proceso de Mejoría del Clima de Negocios para
Inversiones en el Sector Forestal.
Process to Improve the Business Climate for Forest
Investments.
Process that uses IAIF’s methodology as a basis for
improving the climate for investments in sustainable
forest businesses.

Inter-American Development Bank

# 36
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF

IAIF Results Supply
Country’s IAIF
performance.
Data for comparison
among countries.
Understanding of
factors that affect
positively and
negatively the
attractiveness of forest
investments.

Inter-American Development Bank

Generate interest in
improving the
climate for
investments.

# 37
IV- PROMECIF

PROMECIF’s three phases
I: Country identification
and commitment to
change.
III: Implementation,
follow-up, and
evaluation.

II: Diagnosis and
strategy definition.
Inter-American Development Bank

# 38
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase I: Country identification and
commitment to change
Stakeholders share objective of developing and
implementing a plan to improvement of their country’s
business climate for forest investments.
PROMECIF’s Phase I main objective is to construct this
ambience.

Inter-American Development Bank

# 39
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase I: Country identification and
commitment to change
Government
Government

Forest sector stakeholders
Forest sector stakeholders

Others
Others

Other Motivators

IAIF
IAIF

Motivators among stakeholders
Motivators in government

Willingness to improve direct investments in forest sector
Willingness to improve direct investments in forest sector

Commitment to change
Commitment to change
Creation of a Steering Committee (SC)
Creation of a Steering Committee (SC)
Inter-American Development Bank

Committee

Identification

Promotion

IADB
IADB

# 40
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase I: Country identification and
commitment to change
Steering Committee (SC)
– The Steering Committee will be responsible for the
coordination of PROMECIF’s phases II and III.
– Sub commission of a Competitiveness Commission -Steering Committee’s role.

Inter-American Development Bank

# 41
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase I: Country identification and
commitment to change
IADB Support
– The country’s government should be the official
interlocutor.
– A letter of commitment has to be signed by the
appropriate government agency and IADB.

Inter-American Development Bank

# 42
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition

Diagnosis

IAIF Analysis
Complementary
Complementary
analysis
analysis
Expected
Expected
future situation
future situation

IAIF Real/
Potential Max/
Diferential

Desired
Desired
future situation
future situation
Problems and opportunities

Strategy

Systemic relationships and strategic intervention alternatives
Action Plan
Action Plan
Inter-American Development Bank

# 43
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition
IAIF – Real – Potential Maximum - Differential

Inter-American Development Bank

# 44
IV- PROMECIF
The case for Nicaragua (2002)

Inter-American Development Bank

# 45
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition
Complementary analysis
– Information gathering.
– Dynamic analysis of factors that explain the climate for
investments in sustainable forest businesses.
– Definition of expected future situation.
– Definition of desired future situation.
– Identification and analysis of problems and opportunities.

Inter-American Development Bank

# 46
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF

Self
Evaluation

Planned Actions
Financing
Alternatives

Project
analysis

Projects approval
and implementation
Executors

Processes

SC

Results

Executors
Inter-American Development Bank

IAIF
Other Strategic
Indicators

Independent
entity

Follow-up

Implementation

Phase III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation

SC
# 47
IV- PROMECIF
IV- PROMECIF
Phase III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation
Implementation comprises the identification of
financial alternatives and the detailed analysis of
the projects related to the planned actions.
Executers and the Steering Comitee will be
responsible for follow-up and evaluation. An
independent entity may also be used.

Inter-American Development Bank

# 48
IV- Evolution

Recent developments
IDB licensed FGV and INCAE to calculate the IAIF every
two years and to provide associated goods and services to
governments and the private sector
IAIF 2004 will be presented in a event latter this year
PROMECIF is being (or about to be) applied in: Paraguay,
Panama, and Equator.
IAIF-BRAZIL: Index will be adjusted and calculated for
Brazil’s states.
Development of Sub-Indices for plantations and natural
forests.
Inter-American Development Bank

# 49
IV- Evolution

Potential partners
– Multilateral Banks: Asian Development Bank;
African Development Bank; World Bank
– UN related agencies: FAO; ITTO
– World Economic Forum Indexes partners

Inter-American Development Bank

# 50
Further information
www.iadb.org/pforestal

forestal@iadb.org

Inter-American Development Bank

# 51

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Forest investment attractiveness_index-_usefulness_for_sector_management

  • 1. Forest Investment Attractiveness Index: Usefulness for Sector Management Dr. José Rente Nascimento Inter-American Development Bank Side event to the 24th Session of the Latin American and Caribbean Forestry Commission 26th June 2006, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic Inter-American Development Bank Nr. 1
  • 2. Overview I- IDB in one minute II- IAIF – Objectives – Usefulness – Model III- Results – Sub Indices – Supra, Inter, – Intra IV- PROMECIF and IAIF Evolution Inter-American Development Bank #2
  • 4. I- IDB Basic Facts: the IDB Group IDB Group: IDB (1959); IIC (1989); MIF (1992); and PRI (1994) Oldest and largest regional multilateral development bank Largest source of development finance for Latin America – Approved over $ 118 billion in loans – Total cost of projects: $281 billion 46 Member countries - 26 Borrowing (50 % of the shares) Inter-American Development Bank #4
  • 6. II- IAIF IAIF - Objectives General objective: To measure the business climate for investments in the sustainable forest business. The IAIF allows the systematic, periodic, quantitative and more rigorous analyses of the factors that affect the success of forest direct investment and business decision-making. Inter-American Development Bank #6
  • 7. II- IAIF IAIF principal clients • International investors and entrepreneurs • Domestic investors and entrepreneurs • Governments (national, regional or local) • National and international NGOs • Bilateral and multilateral donors Inter-American Development Bank #7
  • 8. II- IAIF The IAIF is useful for • • • representing the forest business climate as a single number per nation initial screening BY INVESTORS of countries with best investment climate for sustainable forest businesses facilitating a more precise and constructive dialogue about forest business climate issues among stakeholders Inter-American Development Bank #8
  • 9. II- IAIF The IAIF is useful for • • • setting priorities among policy areas by governments interested in improving their forest business climate monitoring the success of policy interventions on specific indicators identifying issues where national performance is above or below expectations or aspirations Inter-American Development Bank #9
  • 10. II- IAIF The IAIF is useful for • serving as a working framework to encourage research, debate, dialogue, and learning. • clarifying policy and investment tradeoffs • designing intervention strategies and better define goals, programs, and policies Inter-American Development Bank # 10
  • 11. II- IAIF The IAIF allows comparisons of countries, regions, years, indicators, sub-indexes, such as Among nations in a given year Country’s performance trends over time Country’s performance in relation to neighbors or sub region for given year Subindex performance and trends Inter-American Development Bank # 11
  • 12. II- IAIF The IAIF allows analysis of: Contribution to IAIF Contribution to IAIF Measured Measured (weighted) (weighted) (real) (real) Differential Differential (potential improvement) (potential improvement) Potential Potential (potential maximum) (potential maximum) Inter-American Development Bank Simulations Simulations # 12
  • 13. II- IAIF IAIF – Basic hypothesis Inter-American Development Bank # 13
  • 14. II- IAIF Methodology – 3 Sub indexes Inter-American Development Bank # 14
  • 15. II- IAIF Sub index – SUPRA sectorial factors Inter-American Development Bank # 15
  • 16. II- IAIF Sub index – INTER sectorial factors Inter-American Development Bank # 16
  • 17. II- IAIF Sub index – INTRA sectorial factors Inter-American Development Bank # 17
  • 18. II- IAIF Methodology 20 indicators; >80 variables Inter-American Development Bank # 18
  • 19. II- IAIF IAIF and Sustainability Inter-American Development Bank # 19
  • 20. II- IAIF Sources of information • • Secondary data and indexes (World Bank, FAO, World Economic Forum, etc.) Primary information through surveys – – – – Agriculture policies Planting and harvesting restrictions Adverse actions Favorable supports Inter-American Development Bank # 20
  • 22. III- Results IAIF Real (measured) - 2002 Inter-American Development Bank # 22
  • 23. III- Results Real – Potential - Differential Inter-American Development Bank # 23
  • 24. III- Results IAIF – Real for Best Performers Brasil 60 53 Chile Argentina 44 Uruguay 44 Costa Rica 41 Mexico 40 Colombia 40 0 10 20 30 40 Inter-American Development Bank 50 60 70 # 24
  • 25. III- Results IAIF – Highest Potential 99 Brasil 86 Mexico 81 Colombia Argentina 79 Venezuela 78 Peru 78 75 Bolivia Inter-American Development Bank # 25
  • 26. III- Results Possible improvement over current levels (%) México 115 101 Colombia Argentina 81 69 Costa Rica 66 Brasil 60 Uruguay Chile 39 Inter-American Development Bank # 26
  • 27. III- Results SubIndex SUPRA 51 Brasil 76 Chile Argentina 50 Uruguay 50 77 Costa Rica 69 Mexico 66 Colombia 0 20 40 60 Inter-American Development Bank 80 100 # 27
  • 28. III- Results SubIndex INTER 46 Brasil 63 Chile 46 Argentina 57 Uruguay Costa Rica 51 Mexico 51 Colombia 50 0 20 40 Inter-American Development Bank 60 80 # 28
  • 29. III- Results Sub Index INTRA Brasil 69 Chile 42 Argentina 41 Uruguay 36 Costa Rica 27 Mexico 27 29 Colombia 0 10 20 30 40 Inter-American Development Bank 50 60 70 80 # 29
  • 30. III- Results INTER vs INTRA Brasil Chile Argentina INTRA Uruguay INTER Costa Rica Mexico Colombia 0 20 40 Inter-American Development Bank 60 80 # 30
  • 31. III- Results IAIF – Sub Indexes Brasil Chile Argentina IAIF INTRA Uruguay INTER SUPRA Costa Rica Mexico Colombia 0 20 40 60 Inter-American Development Bank 80 100 # 31
  • 32. III- Results INTER-Sector Indicators – Sample Prop. Rig. Argentina Brasil Chile Labour Colombia Costa Rica México Uruguay Ec. Infrast. 0 25 50 Inter-American Development Bank 75 100 # 32
  • 33. III- Results INTRA-Sector Indicators Dom. Market Argentina Brasil Chile FVL Colombia Costa Rica México Uruguay For. Res 0 20 40 60 Inter-American Development Bank 80 100 # 33
  • 34. III- Results Perception Indicators Argentina Brasil Ag. Policies Chile Restrictions Colombia Adverse Costa Rica Supportive México Uruguay 0 20 40 60 Inter-American Development Bank 80 100 # 34
  • 35. IV- PROMECIF IV PROMECIF and IAIF Evolution Inter-American Development Bank # 35
  • 36. IV- PROMECIF What is PROMECIF? Proceso de Mejoría del Clima de Negocios para Inversiones en el Sector Forestal. Process to Improve the Business Climate for Forest Investments. Process that uses IAIF’s methodology as a basis for improving the climate for investments in sustainable forest businesses. Inter-American Development Bank # 36
  • 37. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF IAIF Results Supply Country’s IAIF performance. Data for comparison among countries. Understanding of factors that affect positively and negatively the attractiveness of forest investments. Inter-American Development Bank Generate interest in improving the climate for investments. # 37
  • 38. IV- PROMECIF PROMECIF’s three phases I: Country identification and commitment to change. III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation. II: Diagnosis and strategy definition. Inter-American Development Bank # 38
  • 39. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change Stakeholders share objective of developing and implementing a plan to improvement of their country’s business climate for forest investments. PROMECIF’s Phase I main objective is to construct this ambience. Inter-American Development Bank # 39
  • 40. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change Government Government Forest sector stakeholders Forest sector stakeholders Others Others Other Motivators IAIF IAIF Motivators among stakeholders Motivators in government Willingness to improve direct investments in forest sector Willingness to improve direct investments in forest sector Commitment to change Commitment to change Creation of a Steering Committee (SC) Creation of a Steering Committee (SC) Inter-American Development Bank Committee Identification Promotion IADB IADB # 40
  • 41. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change Steering Committee (SC) – The Steering Committee will be responsible for the coordination of PROMECIF’s phases II and III. – Sub commission of a Competitiveness Commission -Steering Committee’s role. Inter-American Development Bank # 41
  • 42. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase I: Country identification and commitment to change IADB Support – The country’s government should be the official interlocutor. – A letter of commitment has to be signed by the appropriate government agency and IADB. Inter-American Development Bank # 42
  • 43. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition Diagnosis IAIF Analysis Complementary Complementary analysis analysis Expected Expected future situation future situation IAIF Real/ Potential Max/ Diferential Desired Desired future situation future situation Problems and opportunities Strategy Systemic relationships and strategic intervention alternatives Action Plan Action Plan Inter-American Development Bank # 43
  • 44. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition IAIF – Real – Potential Maximum - Differential Inter-American Development Bank # 44
  • 45. IV- PROMECIF The case for Nicaragua (2002) Inter-American Development Bank # 45
  • 46. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase II: Diagnosis and strategy definition Complementary analysis – Information gathering. – Dynamic analysis of factors that explain the climate for investments in sustainable forest businesses. – Definition of expected future situation. – Definition of desired future situation. – Identification and analysis of problems and opportunities. Inter-American Development Bank # 46
  • 47. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Self Evaluation Planned Actions Financing Alternatives Project analysis Projects approval and implementation Executors Processes SC Results Executors Inter-American Development Bank IAIF Other Strategic Indicators Independent entity Follow-up Implementation Phase III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation SC # 47
  • 48. IV- PROMECIF IV- PROMECIF Phase III: Implementation, follow-up, and evaluation Implementation comprises the identification of financial alternatives and the detailed analysis of the projects related to the planned actions. Executers and the Steering Comitee will be responsible for follow-up and evaluation. An independent entity may also be used. Inter-American Development Bank # 48
  • 49. IV- Evolution Recent developments IDB licensed FGV and INCAE to calculate the IAIF every two years and to provide associated goods and services to governments and the private sector IAIF 2004 will be presented in a event latter this year PROMECIF is being (or about to be) applied in: Paraguay, Panama, and Equator. IAIF-BRAZIL: Index will be adjusted and calculated for Brazil’s states. Development of Sub-Indices for plantations and natural forests. Inter-American Development Bank # 49
  • 50. IV- Evolution Potential partners – Multilateral Banks: Asian Development Bank; African Development Bank; World Bank – UN related agencies: FAO; ITTO – World Economic Forum Indexes partners Inter-American Development Bank # 50