The document discusses the need for a strategic framework and policy for public warning against terrorism threats in the United States. It examines existing warning systems and recommends establishing a national commission to develop an operational strategy that incorporates these systems and eliminates barriers to information sharing between agencies. The strategy would aim to enable preemption, prevention and mitigation of terrorist threats through early detection, notification, and warning to the public.

1. One if by Land, Two if by Sea: Toward a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism May 31, 2007 John Fenzel, COL, USA

4. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900

5. The Dayton Warning System

16. Toward a Strategic Framework of Public Warning Time Domestic Public (General) Alert International Targeted (Confidential) Alert Preemption Prevention Mitigation Point of Attack Recognition of Incomplete Information Notification of Threat

17. Strategic Decision-Making in Warning for Terrorist Threats Risk Time Preemption Prevention Mitigation Point of Attack Recognition of Incomplete Information Notification of Threat Infiltration within U.S. Borders Targeted Warnings Expanded Warnings General Warnings

18. John Boyd’s OODA Loop Model

20. Fielded Forces Population Infrastructure System Essentials Leadership John Warden’s “Five Rings” System Model

21. Adapting Warden’s Five Rings Layers of Public Warning U.S. Populace First Responders National Infrastructure National Processes National Leadership

22. Creating a Strategy of Public Warning for Terrorism Intelligence and Surveillance Public Warning Vulnerability Analysis Prevention Mitigation Preemption Predictive Analysis

23. Instruments of Warning

25. Orient Act Observe Decide Launch Targeted Warning LOW GUARDED ELEVATED Predictive Analysis: -Intelligence -Surveillance Yes (Attack) Preemption Destroy Warden’s Five Rings Detection/Notification of Threat International or Domestic Early to Mid Planning Stages Sufficient Information? Sufficient Capability? No (Move to Prevention)

26. Orient Act Observe Decide HIGH Functional Warning Sector-Specific Warning Delay - Disrupt Predictive Analysis: -Incomplete Information -Inadequate Capability Vulnerability Analysis Prevention Notification/Detection of Threat Domestic Infiltration of Terror Cells Advanced Planning Stages Prioritize Objectives Using Warden’s Five Rings Model Protect Sources and Methods Public Safety Expanded Warning Observe Orient Act Decide

27. SEVERE HSAS EAS NOAA Media COOP/COG Domestic Incident Management Mitigation Attack Imminent or in Progress Prioritize the Effort: Warden’s Five Rings Coordinate with Federal, State, Local Authorities and Private Entities General Warning Act Decide Orient Observe