1. November 2012
Monthly Perspectives
n
For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

2. October’s Highlights
October has been a positive month for risky on matters of taxation and spending. That would
assets. However, the S&P 500 had its first negative send the US and probably the global economy
month since May. Euro and US financial stocks into a new recession. However, if the current level
show a robust performance since the beginning of of uncertainty subsides with a successful
the year. resolution of the US fiscal challenges ahead,
growth could be boosted.
The world economy maintains a trend-like growth.
Balance sheet repair, de-leveraging and structural Europe remains a laggard. Fiscal retrenchment,
adjustment (mainly in Europe) are key headwinds. structural adjustment, and banking sector
Emerging economies show growth below the high weakness, particularly in the peripheral
rates of the past decade. Nonetheless, recent economies, are the sources of stagnation or even
economic data in the US and China have looked a recession.
bit better. In China, growth seems to be stabilizing
due to accelerated government infrastructure On the subject of earnings, the Q3 2012 earnings
spending and better exports. season has been poor, with many companies
missing revenues estimates.
The 2012 US Presidential Election outcome could
be viewed by markets as a signal for the direction Besides the 57th US Presidential Election, two
of policy in some important areas. An adverse other important political events will be held in
shock is still the possibility that politicians in November: the Communist Party Congress and
Washington will not be able to reach an agreement the Catalonia regional elections.

3. Asset Performance Review – October 2012
• October was a positive month for risky assets. Commodities were an important exception;
• The ECB’s bond buying program continued to support gains in peripheral markets (equities and fixed
income markets). The Greek Athex index rose 8.4%;
• The S&P 500 fell -1.8%, down for the first time since May;
• Core government bonds had a moderately negative month in October.
Source: Bloomberg

4. Asset Performance Review – YTD 2012
• Spanish and Chinese equities are the worst performing assets within our selection;
• Greek equities have produced a YTD performance that is not too different with the performance seen
in the Dax;
• Euro and US financial stocks show a robust performance since the beginning of the year;
• Brazilian equities are barely positive YTD. The Real exchange rate has depreciated.
Source: Bloomberg

5. Portugal: Programme is still broadly on track
• Portugal’s fifth troika Portuguese EC Economic Sentiment
18%
10-year Government Bond Yields (%)
18%
review: GDP growth Indicator & GDP
110 3% 16% 16%
Portugal
projection has been kept 105 2%
14% Italy 14%
100 1%
at -3.0% for 2012. 12%
Spain
12%
95 0%
Economic prospects for 90 -1% 10% 10%
2013 have been 85 -2% 8% 8%
downgraded from 0.2% to 80 -3%
6% 6%
75 -4%
-1.0%; 4% 4%
70 -5%
• Portugal’s budget for 2013 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 2% 2%
will allow it to meet the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (LHS) GDP (% y/y, RHS) Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
deficit targets set by the Source: INE and European Commission Source: Bloomberg
troika. However, public General Government Balance and Debt (% GDP) Unemployment rate (%)
0% 130% 18% 18%
resistance to austerity
16% 16%
-2% Portugal
seems to be growing. The 120%
14% 14%
-4% Euro-zone
economic downturn 110%
12% 12%
should continue (see -6%
100% 10% 10%
chart); -8%
8% 8%
90%
• The long-end of the -10%
6% 6%
Portuguese government -12% 80%
4% 4%
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
curve shows an impressive General Government Balance (% GDP) (LHS) 2% 2%
performance this year. General Government Debt (% GDP) (RHS) 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: IMF Country Report, October 2012 Source: Eurostat

6. Spain: Economic and fiscal outlook remains poor
• GDP fell by -0.3% in Q3. This 120 8%
Spanish GDP & EC Economic Spanish Government Bond Yields (%)
marks the fourth consecutive 6% 8.0%
110 Sentiment Indicator
quarter of falling GDP and puts 4%
7.0%
the level of GDP 5.6% below its 100
6.0%
2%
2008 peak (see chart); 5.0%
0%
• The country still lacks a banking 90 4.0%
EC Economic Indicator (LHS)
system that can actively support GDP (%y/y, RHS)
-2% 3.0%
80
Spain’s economic restructuring; -4% 2.0%
• Spain’s recent budget intends to 70 -6%
1.0%
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
deliver a deficit of 4.5% of GDP 2-year 5-year 10-year
Source: European Commission and INE
in 2013. However, GDP growth is Source: Bloomberg
expected at -0.5% y/y, which is Spanish Central Government Borrowing
6%
probably optimistic; (% of GDP)
• The pressure on Spain to enter a 5%
programme – and hence trigger 4%
the ECB’s bond buying plan –
3%
has been eased by the drop in
government bond yields (see 2%
2011
chart); 1% 2012
• Moody’s confirmed Spain at
0%
Baa3, but kept the sovereign on Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Negative outlook. Source: INE, INE, ISTAT and Central Statistics Office of Ireland Source: Spanish Central Bank

7. Euro-zone: ECB prompts a period of relative calm
Euro-zone Unemployment rate Euro-zone EC Economic Sentiment
• Activity in Q3 was & PMI Composite Indicator & GDP 1.5%
65 7%
probably more resilient 115
0.5%
than initially expected; 8%
105
55
• Nonetheless, business 9% -0.5%
95
and consumer surveys
10% -1.5%
85
points to a weak 45
11%
outlook for Q4; 75 -2.5%
• The German and French 35 12%
65 -3.5%
2005 2007 2009 2011
indices are also at low Euro-zone PMI surveys Composite (LHS)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
levels; Unemployment rate (rev order; RHS)
EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (LHS) GDP (%y/y, RHS)
Source: Markit and Eurostat
• Euro-zone Source: European Commission and Eurostat
unemployment rate Probability of a Country Leaving the Euro (%)
80
reached a new record 70
high (11.6%) in 60
50
September;
40
• German unemployment
30
registered its sharpest 20
monthly increase since 10
July 2009, leaving the 0
Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12
unemployment rate at
By end 2012 By end 2013 By end 2014
6.9%. Source: Intrade Source: Finance Ministers

8. US Economy: Still sluggish but stable
30%
• The resurgence in the 120 Consumer Confidence & Change in Non-Farm
Capital Goods Orders 20% 300 Payroll Employment (000s)
NAHB index points to 100
10% 250
continued growth in 80
200
residential construction 60
0%
150
spending; 40 -10%
• A faster consumption -20%
100
20
growth offset a slower 50
0 -30%
investment growth; 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
0
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
• The fall in mortgages University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Confidence Sentiment
Change in Payroll Employment Three Month Average
US Capital Goods Shipments Nondefense Ex Aircraft Y/Y NSA
rates has supported Source: U. of Michigan Survey Research Center and US Census Bureau Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
mortgage refinancing
Housing Starts & NAHB Homebuilders' Index
and reduced monthly 2,500 90
loan payments; 80
2,000
• Once the media begins 70
60
to focus on the fiscal 1,500
50
cliff negotiations, will
40
households become 1,000
30
more aware of the 20
500
potential increase in NAHB Housing Index (Asv. 4m, LHS)
10
Housing Starts (000s Annualised, RHS)
tax rates at the start of 0 0
2013? 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: US Census Bureau and National Association of Homebuilders

9. China: Is the economy gaining traction ?
• NBS manufacturing PMI China: Industrial Production and China: manufacturing PMIs
rose to 50.2 in October 150%
PMI Orders to Inventory ratios
20%
60 60
(see chart). It seems the 140%
130%
economy has stabilized; 120% 15%
55 55
• The components of new 110%
100%
orders and new export 90% 10%
50 50
orders showed further 80%
70%
gains. The corporate 60% 5% 45
NBS PMI
45
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
sector’s de-stocking New Orders to Stocks of Finished Goods Inventory Ratio % (NBS) (LHS)
Markit PMI
40 40
process could be close to New Orders to Inventories of Raw Materials Ratio % (NBS) (LHS)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Industrial Production (y/y, RHS)
an end; Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China and Bloomberg
• On the external front, the China: Unemployment Rate and GDP China: Exports and PMI New Export Orders
recovery in export growth 4.4% 13%
63
60%
12%
to 9.9% y/y was 4.3% 58
50%
11% 40%
encouraging (see chart); 53 30%
4.2% 10%
• Q3 GDP growth was 7.4% 9% 48 20%
y/y. Premier Wen 4.1% 8% 43
10%
0%
commented on the likely 7% 38
4.0% -10%
achievement of the 6% 33 -20%
government’s target of 3.9% 5% 28 -30%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2006 2008 2010 2012
7.5% real GDP growth this Urban Registered Unemployment Rate (LHS) GDP (y/y, RHS) NBS PMI New Export Orders (LHS, 3-month lead) Exports (% y/y, RHS)
year with confidence. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

10. Central bank action drove the rally. Earnings are still a concern
• The equity rally continues to be MSCI World Consumer Discretionary and
mainly explained by multiple 125
Staples Indices (LC)
125
expansion (see chart). Tail risks Dec. 2011 = 100
120 120
have been reduced after central
115 115
bank action. Expanding
multiples may also imply better 110 110
growth ahead. Recent economic 105 105
data in the US and China have 100 100
looked better; 95 95
Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12
• Relative to long-term averages,
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples
forward P/Es don´t seem to be Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
expensive (see chart);
51 S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Growth 35 S&P 500: P/E Market Multiples
• Earnings revision in the US and
(% y/y)
Europe have a negative bias. In 37 30
Trailing P/E
the US, Q3 2012 earnings are 28 NTM P/E
expected to be down q/q and 16
19 17
15 14
25
12 11 11
y/y. According to consensus 8 7
2 20
forecasts, Q3 2012 should be
the trough (see chart). Earnings -1 15
growth is expected to accelerate
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Dec-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Dec-13 10
next year in the US (12.7%) and 88 92 96 00 04 08 12
in Europe (12.1%). Source: Standard and Poors Source: Standard and Poors

11. Flows into bonds and out of equities continues
• Despite the current low yield CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index AAII US Investor Sentiment Readings
50% 60% 60%
environment, funds continue
45%
to flow out of equities and into 40%
50% 50%
bonds (see chart) ; 35% 40% 40%
• Sentiment indicators suggest 30%
30% 30%
investors are modestly bullish 25%
(see chart); 20% 20% 20%
• Investor sentiment remains 15%
10% 10%
cautiously positive; 10% Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
• Volatility in equity indices AAII Bull Index AAII Bear Index
continue to trend lower (see Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
chart); Cumulative Estimated Flows to Long-
S&P 500 Bottom-up Operating
• Lower tail risks mean lower Term Mutual Funds ($tn)
$31 Estimates Over Time $119
risk of a systematic shock. 1.2 Equity $30 $118
Idiosyncratic risk is now more 0.8
Bonds
$29 $117
important, which increases the 0.4
$28 $116
benefit to stock picking; $27 $115
0.0
• Earnings could be a challenge $26 Q3 2012 Est. (LHS) $114
for US Equities, especially if -0.4
$25
Q4 2012 Est. (LHS)
$113
2013 Est. (RHS)
the fiscal cliff headwinds are -0.8 $24 $112
Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12
confirmed. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: ICI Source: Standard and Poors

12. Credit still benefit from favorable demand-supply technicals
• Credit spreads are a low levels 1400 700
Coporate Spreads: Investment Grade
Coporate Spreads: 300 300
(see chart). Is further 1200 Europe HY and Asia IG 600 Spread (bp) Spread (bp)
compression possible? With 1000 500 250 250
valuations not particularly
800 400 US IG Corp
attractive, return is likely to 200
EU IG Corp
200
600 300
come mostly from receiving
150 150
400 200
the coupon. The risk-return
trade-off looks less attractive. 200 100 100 100
But, equities need growth 0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 50 50
(economic and earnings) to 2009 2010 2011 2012
EU HY Asia Ex-Japan IG Corp
outperform; Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
• With low yields across fixed Government Bond Yields Portugal-Germany Gov.
8% 8%
income, equities seem Bond Yield Spread
7% 7%
20%
increasingly attractive on a 6% 6% 10-year
relative yield basis; 5% 5% 15% 2-year
• European periphery sovereign 4% 4%
yields have fallen because of 3% 3% 10%
the ECB; 2% 2%
5%
• Periphery yields are probably 1% 1%
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
already priced for much of the Italy 2-year Italy 10-year 0%
expected ECB buying. Spain 2-year Spain 10-year Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

13. S&P 500 Earnings Update: Q3 2012 as of November 2, 2012
• 379 companies have reported (c.80% of total • Revenues disappointed. According to
market cap); Bloomberg, only 41% of companies beat sales
• According to Bloomberg, 71% of companies estimates, while 59% of companies missed
reporting have beaten earnings estimates and 28% sales estimates;
have missed estimates. The average EPS surprise • Implications for Q4 2012 have been negative,
has been 4.07%; with many companies lowering EPS guidance.

14. DJ Europe 600 Earnings Update: Q3 2012 as of Nov. 2, 2012
• According to Bloomberg, 218 companies have • According to Bloomberg, the average sales
reported Q3 results. The European earnings surprise has been -2.08%;
season has been weak so far. 53% of companies • Consensus expects 2012 earnings growth to
reporting have beaten estimates and 45% have be -2.6%. Since the beginning of the year,
missed; consensus expected growth has been revised
• On sales, 49% of companies reporting have beaten down by more than 12 percentage points.
estimates and 51% have missed estimates;

15. What we are watching this month:
World Calendar
• In November, Eurogroup / EcoFin Date Region Event
meetings will be held (Nov 12th). 05-Nov-12
06-Nov-12
US
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Presidential Election
No significant measures are 06-Nov-12
07-Nov-12
Australia
Euro-zone
RBA monetary policy meeting
European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
expected to be announced; 07-Nov-12 Greece Greek vote on structural reforms
07-Nov-12 Euro-zone ECB's Draghi speeks at Wirtschaftstag 2012
• Three important political events 07-Nov-12 Euro-zone Chancellor Merkel meets MPs in EU parliament
08-Nov-12 China Communist Party Congress
should be highlighted: the 57th US 08-Nov-12 Euro-zone ECB Governing Council Policy Meeting and press conference
08-Nov-12 UK Bank of England MPC Meeting
Presidential Election (Nov 6th), the 08-Nov-12 Japan Machinery orders
08-Nov-12 Asia Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia monetary policy decisions
Communist Party Congress (Nov 09-Nov-12 China CPI and PPI
8th) and the Catalonia regional 09-Nov-12
10-Nov-12
US
China
U. of Michigan prelim. consumer confidence
Monetary data and trade balance
elections (Nov 25th); 11-Nov-12
12-Nov-12
Greece
Euro-zone
Greek parliament votes on austerity measures
Eurogroup and Ecofin Meetings
• The Catalonia regional elections 13-Nov-12 Portugal Bank of Portugal releases Autumn Economic Bulletin
13-Nov-12 Euro-zone Zew Survey
are a key political event in Spain. It 14-Nov-12 US Advanced Retail Sales
14-Nov-12 Iberia General Strike in Spain and Portugal
could have an influence on the 15-Nov-12 Euro-zone GDP
16-Nov-12 US Industrial Production
timing of the country request for 19-Nov-12 US NAHB Housing Market Index
19-Nov-12 Euro-zone European Union Foreign Ministers meet in Brussels
help; 20-Nov-12 Japan BoJ Target Rate
• The ECB (8th), the BOE (8th) and the 20-Nov-12
21-Nov-12
US
Europe
Housing Starts
PMI Manufacturing
BOJ (20th) will have policy 22-Nov-12
23-Nov-12
China
Germany
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
IFO Survey
meetings this month; 25-Nov-12 Spain Catalonia Regional Elections
27-Nov-12 US Durable Goods Orders
• The money supply / new loans 27-Nov-12 US S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index
27-Nov-12 US FED's Beige Book
report is a key indicator for China 29-Nov-12 US GDP
30-Nov-12 Euro-zone Unemployment rate
and will be released Nov 10th.

16. US elections: Status quo Implied probability, percent Implied probability, percent
100 100
outcome is the most likely… 80
Republicans retain House majority
80
• … and is probably priced into stock prices;
• The 2012 election will have potential policy 60 60
outcomes on three areas: President Obama Reelected
40 40
o The resolution of the fiscal cliff;
o The reform of entitlement programs and 20 20
Democrats retain Senate majority
the tax code; and
o The leadership of the Federal Reserve. 0 0
Abr Mai Jun Jul Ago Set Out Nov
• A divided government seems to be the most
Source: Intrade
likely outcome (see chart) ;
• Congress will need to once again increase the Current political groups at the Current political groups at the
debt ceiling, avoiding a potential government House of Representatives Senate
shutdown in February or March;
Democrats
• Romney has indicated that he would seek to ; 192 Democrats
; 47
replace Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke when his
term expires in early 2014;
• All three of the major ratings agencies have
indicated they will reassess their rating over the
Republican
next year or so. Fiscal reform enacted by the Republican ; 53
; 243
Congress in the next year will probably be
decisive. Source: Fincor Source: Fincor

17. US Elections: What impact 300 The Fiscal Cliff negociation vs. Economic data 62
250 60
should we expect? 200 58
• The mid-2011 debt ceiling crisis episode was
150 56
associated with a negative economic impact,
falling equity prices and a rally in Treasury 100 54
securities (see charts); 50 52
• Under a total gridlock scenario (i.e. no
0 50
agreement), asset values will suffer, especially Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11
risky assets; US Non Farm Payroll, m/m change (LHS) US Manufacturing PMI (RHS)
• The most likely outcome is still that most of the Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Institute for Supply Management
fiscal cliff is averted. However, if there´s a
difficult negotiation, short-term volatility could The Fiscal Cliff negotiation vs.
115 Equity markets
increase and uncertainty should dampen Base 100 = Jan 2011
sentiment; 110
• Higher uncertainty usually leads to a flight to 105
safe havens, particularly US Treasuries; 100
• The government cannot go on running high
95
budget deficits indefinitely. Beyond the fiscal
Nasdaq 100
cliff, equity markets will probably focus on 90
S&P 500
whether credible and sustainable fiscal reforms 85
are put into place to address long-term Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11
structural imbalances. Source: Bloomberg

18. China: 18th Communist Party Senior leaders to be elected
Congress – Leadership transition National Party Congress National People's Congress
• The formal transition of leadership at the Politburo NPC Standing Commitee
national level occurs in two key steps: Politburo Standing Committee President/Vice President
o The 18th National Congress of the Chinese General Secretary of the Party Supreme Court President
Communist Party (Party Congress) in Secretaries of the Secretariat Procurator-General
November 8th: The new leaders will be
formally introduced, including the Central Military Commission (Party) Central Military Commission (State)
Politburo Standing Committee (PSC); Central Disciplinary Commission Premier/Cabinet Ministers
o The 12th National People’s Congress, Source: Xinhua
probably in March 2013: Where the 100 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index - China
transition of the Executive will take place. 80
A new President and Premier will be 60
appointed (from the PSC). The new 40
economic policy will start to be 20
implemented. 0
• The fifth generation of leaders comes to power -20
at an important moment. After being able to -40
-60
maintain a rapid economic growth, the Chinese
-80
economy faces important challenges, including
-100
income inequality, structural imbalances and Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12
rising costs. Source: Bloomberg

19. Greece is close to generate the €13.5bn of savings
demanded by the troika
• We approach the November 12th Eurogroup meeting,
the likely date on which euro-zone finance ministers
will make a decision on the next tranche of Greece’s
loan;
• Labor reforms have proved the most controversial
issue for the three-party coalition;
• Fiscal austerity should continue to hammer GDP
growth (see chart). Debt dynamics seems to be
unsustainable. The Government raised the public Source: IMF
debt to GDP ratio forecast to 192% in 2014, far higher
Industrial Production (excl. Construction)
than the forecast in the original bail-out programme. 105
Political consensus will probably be necessary for 100
Greece to have some sort of haircut on its official- 95
sector debt; 90
• Nonetheless, August’s Greek industrial production 85
figures showed an annual growth rate of 2.6% (see 80
75
chart). This was the first annual rise recorded since
70 Dec. 2004 = 100
2008. Are structural reforms and wage reductions
65
that have taken place over the last few years finally 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
bearing some fruit? Source: Eurostat

20. Eurowatch: Eurogroup meeting (Nov. 12th) and ECB’s Governing
Council Meeting (Nov. 8th) ECB Bank Lending Survey and Loan Demand
60
• After last week’s Eurogroup teleconference call, 40 Demand rising
the euro-zone finance ministers have asked for 20
“remaining issues” to be resolved between Greece 0
and the troika; -20
• Greece is expected to run out of cash by mid- -40
November. The Eurogroup will probably give a -60 Demand falling
decision on the next tranche of the country’s loan -80
on November 12th; 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Lending to Firms Consumer Credit Mortgage Lending
• Can we expect some progress on Spain? Catalonia
Source: ECB
will held regional elections on November 25th. This Euro-zone credit to private sector and
is an important political event for Spain. 12% M3 growth rate 14%
Additionally, there’s still some political stigma 10% 12%
attached to asking for a bailout, particularly in 8% 10%
relation to a probable involvement of the IMF; 6%
8%
6%
• The ECB is likely to remain on standby this month. 4%
4%
The announcement of its Outright Monetary 2% 2%
Transactions programme is still supporting market 0% 0%
sentiment. However, we should focus on whether -2% -2%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
the statement shows any shift in tone on the risks Euro-zone Credit to Private Sector (LHS) M3 Annual Growth Rate (RHS)
to the outlook for growth and inflation. Source: ECB

21. Charts we are watching
China Real GDP vs. China Equities
• Recent data seems to point to China GDP (% y/y, RHS)
better China 210% 12%
macro ahead. September data releases 170% 11%
suggested that the impact of policy easing 130%
10%
90%
measures adopted since April have started to 9%
50%
push aggregate demand. Chinese equities are 10%
8%
showing some signs of improvement. China is -30% 7%
decisive to the outlook for the materials global -70% 6%
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
sector (metals and mining stocks).
Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (% y/ y, LHS)
China GDP (% y/y, RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
• The Baltic Dry Index has recently improved. It 1800
Baltic Dry Index
could suggest a better outlook to global trade. 1600
Latest export data in Korea and Taiwan 1400
inflected higher, though from low levels. This 1200
also hints of global growth stabilizing. 1000
Nevertheless, the fiscal cliff is a risk to growth 800
and market sentiment. Are investors
600
underestimating that risk ?
400
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12
Source: Bloomberg

22. Disclosure Section
This research report is based on information obtained from sources which we believe to be credible and reliable, but is
not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All the information contained herein is based upon information
available to the public.
The recipient of this report must make its own independent assessment and decisions regarding any securities or
financial instruments mentioned herein.
This report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or related
financial instruments. The investment discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors
depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position.
The material in this research report is general information intended for recipients who understand the risks associated
with investment. It does not take account of whether an investment, course of action, or associated risks are suitable
for the recipient.
Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment
strategies discussed or recommended in this research report and should understand that the statements regarding
future prospects may not be realized. Investors may receive back less than initially invested. Past performance is not a
guarantee for future performance.
Fincor – Sociedade Corretora, S.A. accepts no liability of any type for any indirect or direct loss arising from the use of
this research report.
Recommendations and opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date referred on this research report.
Current recommendations or opinions are subject to change as they depend on the evolution of the company or may
become outdated as a consequence of changes in the environment.
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