The topics for this webinar include: The Problem – Why your method may be a “management placebo” and why that is the biggest risk you have Problems that many methods ignore – and problems some methods introduce What Does Work – Studies reveal some methods show consistent, measurable improvements on the forecasts and decisions of managers Examples of Real Improvements Overview of Applied Information Economics (AIE) Process Common Objections to quantitative methods and the misconceptions behind them Questions & Answers

1. Applied Information Economics © 2010 HDR and Aliado Accesso LLC Measuring risk – What Works and What Doesn’t

15. Making the Best Bet © 2010 HDR and Aliado Accesso LLC Model The Current State of Uncertainty – Initially use calibrated estimates and then actual measurements Optimize Decision – Use the quantified Risk/Return boundary of the Decision makers to determine which decision is preferred. Define the Decision and Identify Relevant Variables. Set up the “Business Case” for the decision, using these variables – Calibration Training Compute the value of additional Information – Determine what to measure and how much effort to spend on measuring it. Measure where the information value is high – Reduce uncertainty using any of the methods No Yes Is there significant value to more information?

25. Supplementary Material © 2010 HDR and Aliado Accesso LLC