1. Adaptation Responses of Developing Countries under the
UNFCCC & the Kyoto Protocol
Wil Burns, SCU School of Law
In confronting climate change, policymakers can focus on two basic
strategies:
• Mitigation [SLIDE 2]
• Adaptation [SLIDE 3]
• For many years, the climate change community’s focus was
overwhelmingly on mitigation. However, in recent years, adaptation
has become a much higher priority.
• This is a salutary development for several reasons:
o It has become increasingly clear that many of the world’s largest
emitters have concluded that it is neither politically nor
economically expedient to address climate change in a
meaningful fashion.
As a consequence, we now face emissions scenarios over
the next 50-100 years that could wreak havoc on natural
ecosystems, as well as the welfare of billions in developing
countries, many of which will face the most severe impacts
of climate change and have the least capability to respond.
• With the pace of greenhouse gas emissions
accelerating substantially at the outset of this
century, temperature increases of at least 3C (4.5F)
by the end of this century now appear inevitable, and
4-5C appearing far more likely
o Moreover, the International Energy Agency in
its latest World Energy Outlook concluded that
a possible 50% increase in world energy needs
by 2030 could translate into a 57% increase in
carbon dioxide emissions and a 6C increase in
temperatures.
• Additionally, the empirical nature of climate change necessitates
simultaneous implementation of both adaptation and mitigation
measures:
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2. o The fact is that climate change mitigation initiatives will make a
small difference to the human development prospects of
vulnerable populations in the first half of the 21st Century—but a
big difference in the second half.
This is because of the long residence time of some
greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, which can
remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.
• This ensures that no matter what we do to reduce
emissions, the impacts of recent emissions will be
visited on the globe through 2030, at which point
mitigation efforts can begin to make a difference,
though temperatures will continue to increase
through 2050 at a minimum because of the system’s
inertia
o Even if atmospheric GHG concentrations could
be held steady at 2005 levels, which is highly
improbable, we would see temperatures
increase 2.4C above pre-industrial levels
Because the consensus is that a 2C
increase is a critical threshold for many
of the most dire impacts of climate
change, a 2.4C increase will have serious
implications for natural and human
institutions [SLIDE 4]
o Conversely, adaptation policies can make a big difference over
the next 50 years in ameliorating the impacts of climate change—
and they will remain important thereafter
Example: California [SLIDE 5]
• At the same time, it must be emphasized that if the world’s major
greenhouse gas emitting States, most notably the U.S., the EU, Russia,
Japan, China and India must make dramatic commitments to reducing
greenhouse emissions within the next 10-20 years or the cost of
adaptation will become cost-prohibitive for most developing nations,
and to no avail in many cases.
o Adaptation must be a bridge to a de-carbonized future or it will
prove to be a bridge to nowhere.
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3. The purpose of this presentation is to briefly examine the institutional
mechanisms to operationalize climate change adaptation at the international
level under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol, with an emphasis on the needs
of the developing world and adequacy of financing mechanisms.
To do this I will [SLIDE 6]
1. Provisions for Adaptation Under UNFCCC and the Kyoto
Protocol
A. UNFCCC:
a. General obligation of Parties to engage in adaptation
[SLIDE 7]
b. Obligation of developed countries to provide adaptation
funding for particularly vulnerable developing countries
[SLIDE 8]
i. UNFCCC notes that certain areas face special risks from
climate change, including low-lying coastal areas,
fragile ecosystems, arid and semi-arid regions, and
areas that subject to drought, desertification, or prone
to natural disasters.
c. The UNFCCC also includes more general obligations pertinent
to adaptation:
i. Actions to meet needs and concerns of vulnerable
countries [SLIDE 9]
1. Parties have acknowledged this includes
adaptation needs
ii. Technology transfer:
1. Article 4.5 [SLIDE 10]
2. Article 4.9 [SLIDE 11]
3. Parties have acknowledged this includes
adaptation needs
iii. Parties to promote economic development that will
facilitate coping with climate change in developing
countries [SLIDE 12]
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4. d. Finally, Article 11 of the UNFCCC established a funding
mechanism for the Convention and tasks the Parties with
establishing funding modalities
i. Parties subsequently designated the Global Environment
Facility to administer funding for many of the programs
1. The GEF was established in 1994 under the rubric
of the United Nations Development Program, the
World Bank, and the United Nations Environment
Program to provide concessional funding in
implementation of environmental protection
programs in several sectors, including climate
change.
B. Kyoto Protocol Provisions on Adaptation:
a. All parties required to develop programs to mitigate and adapt
to climate change [SLIDE 13]
b. Provides for funding of, inter alia, adaptation measures,
entrusted to the GEF [SLIDE 14]
C. Notably, neither UNFCCC or Kyoto provides quantitative
commitments for financing adaptation, nor specific funding sources
a. However, 3 funding programs have been established under
the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol for adaptation:
i. The Special Climate Change Fund, established by Parties
to the UNFCCC at the 7COP in 2001 [SLIDE 15]
ii. The Least Developing Countries Fund established by
Parties to the UNFCCC at the 7COP in 2001 [SLIDE 16]
iii. The Adaptation Fund, established by the Parties to the
Kyoto Protocol at the 3rd MOP to the Kyoto Protocol in
2007 [SLIDE 17]
2. Critique of Adaptation Responses to Date
A. Financial transfers for adaptation in developing countries has been
extremely inadequate:
a. How much do we need?
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5. i. Global adaptation costs estimated to be 7-10% of total
global damage associated with climate change
ii. For developing States, this will translate into a need for
US$28–$67 billion a year by 2030 of additional
investments and financial flows for adaptation to impacts
on water resources, agriculture, forestry and fisheries, and
health.
1. The needs are palpable throughout the developing
world:
a. Example: current climate models for Africa
provide insufficient information to downscale
data on rainfall, the spatial distribution of
tropical cyclones and the occurrence of
droughts
i. One reason for this is that the region has
the world’s lowest density of
meteorological stations, with one site for
every 25,460 km2—one-eighth of the
minimum level recommended by the
World Meteorological Organization
(WMO).
iii. But we are providing egregiously limited funding to
developing countries to address adaptation
1. UNFCCC and Kyoto aggregate is very small [SLIDE
18]
a. We’re talking about $279 million at this point,
to be disbursed over a number of years
2. Other bilateral and multilateral efforts are also tepid.
Recent study documented commitments of only $94
million for adaptation responses between 2001-
2005, though this does appear to be accelerating
now.
3. Contrast with developed world’s resources for
adaptation:
a. The German state of Baden-Würtemberg is
planning to spend more than twice as much as
the entire multilateral adaptation effort for
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6. developing countries on strengthening flood
defenses
b. The Venice Mose plan, which aims to protect
the city against rising sea levels, will spend
US$3.8 billion over five years
4. General conclusion: we’re leaving the world’s poor to
cope for themselves [SLIDE 19]
iv. We need to develop predicable, and substantial additional sources
of funding for adaptation responses in developing countries.
Potential examples include:
1. Swiss proposal for a uniform global tax of $2 on all
fossil fuel emissions, would raise $48.5 billion
annually,
2. Extending the $2 levy on Clean Development
Mechanism Projects to Joint Implementation projects
under the Kyoto Protocol would raise about $14
billion annually
3. A levy of only $7 per airplane ticket would also yield
$14 billion annually
4. Other ideas include levies on vehicles that produce
high levels of CO2, as well as on other low fuel
efficiency vehicles
5. Ideally, countries should commit to allocating a
certain percentage of their GDP to adaptation
financing, or link contributions to historical
responsibility for carbon emissions and financing
capabilities measured by the Human Development
Index and national income.
B. Other Measures that Should Be Taken in Context of Adaptation:
a. Need to integrate climate change adaptation objectives into
Overseas Development Assistance Projects, for two reasons:
i. First, UNDP study indicates that 17% of all development
assistance projects are at intensive risk from climate
change, translating into $16-32 billion.
1. “Climate proofing” such projects would cost about
$4.5 billion, but this would likely prove to be an
extremely important and cost-effective adaptation
response
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7. ii. Second, an ODA project may have positive or negative
effects on the vulnerability of the community or ecosystem
to climate change; thus, to not take into account climate
change would be counterproductive
b. The use of risk assessments, vulnerability assessments and
environmental impact assessments as part of ODA-funded
projects could help to reduce the vulnerability of these projects
to climate change
C. Need to Integrate Adaptation into Foreign Direct Investment:
a. FDI flows are a potentially important source for adaptation
below such flows are a much more important source of funding
for developing countries, about four times greater in magnitude
than ODA
b. Ways could be found to influence investment decision-making to
incorporate adaptation strategies, most notably through national
policy.
i. For example, climate risk can be reduced if building codes
and land-use regulations for real estate, including hotel
resorts in the coastal zone, reflect best practices for
reducing vulnerability to climate change impacts
1. An increasingly attractive scenario for investors
would be if small subsidies, provided through loans
from development banks, for example,
complemented such regulations, compensating for
the extra investment costs.
2. National policies should make climate adaptation
considerations a prerequisite for foreign direct
investment
D. Critical research needs for developing adaptation strategies:
a. Most current general circulation climate models are too coarse to
accurately assess climate impacts at regional or local scales,
making it difficult to craft cost-effective adaptation strategies
i. Need to increase funding for such modeling as a very high
priority over the next few years;
ii. Should also explore potential role of adaptation insurance
(insurance contemplated in UNFCCC) as a means of
spreading risk and enhancing systemic resilience
E. A broader measure would be to establish entirely separate protocol
under UNFCCC for adaptation
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8. a. This could highlight the importance of this issue;
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