2006, CYBER WORLD - THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING
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Jim Brazell presents a prescient view on the future of computing at the Machine to Machine Computing Conference for M2M United in San Antonio, Texas in 2006. If you want a speaker who can show you the future today, there is one guy who has been nailing future trends for the past decade and his name is Jim Brazell. Learn more at www.ventureramp.com. Read his free technology forecast from the Texas State Technical College System on the same topic at: http://forecasting.tstc.edu/forecasts/m2m-the-wireless-revolution/ M2M is an acronym for Machine-to-Machine computing and both fourth generation and M2M involve networking physical, chemical, biological and neurological objects, systems and environments. Applications of M2M and fourth generation computing span virtually every industry and market. “The most compelling discovery of the report is the emergence of a fourth generation of computing defined as a system on a chip with a single platform for power, communications and computing.” says Jim Brazell, principal analyst. Highlights of the forecast include recommendations to educators who wish to develop curricula and analysis of the global US$100 billion industry in 2005 forecast to grow to US $700 billion by 2010. The report describes M2M technologies, identifies the emerging and promising markets, and identifies the resources Texas can draw upon to play a leading role in this increasingly competitive arena. Based on more than 100 interviews and an M2M industry survey, as well as secondary sources, the report outlines human capital needs of M2M companies over the next three to five years, and how technical and community colleges can best meet those needs through targeted curricula and transdisciplinary learning environments. By anticipating workforce demands, college curriculum offerings can be a constructive force in attracting high-tech companies to the state and ensuring that existing high-tech companies continue to have appropriately skilled employees.
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2006, CYBER WORLD - THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING
- 1. M2M and 4th Generation Computing Presented by: Jim Brazell jimbrazell@ventureramp.com Consulting Analyst, Digital Media Collaboratory, UT Austin and the Schriever Institute, San Antonio, TX
- 3. 1st Gen Mainframe 2nd Gen Mini 3rd Gen PC 4th Gen Sys on Chip
- 4. http://www-bsac.eecs.berkeley.edu/archive/users/warneke-brett/SmartDust/ Berkeley’s Golem Dust 11.7 mm3 total circumscribed volume ~4.8 mm3 total displaced volume Berkeley’s Deputy Dust 6.6 mm3 total circumscribed volume 4th Gen 11.7 mm3 6.6 mm3
- 5. http://shino8.eng.uci.edu/Pdf/Tomo_MIT_Mems.pdfintel-research.net/ berkeley/features/tiny_db.asp Berkeley Motes /berkeley.intel-research.net/paulos/research/connexus/ www-bsac.eecs.berkeley.edu/archive/users/warneke-brett/SmartDust/ 4th Gen combines computing, communications and energy into a single platform enabling remote human and machine interaction with physical, chemical, biological and neurological objects, systems, processes and environments.
- 7. Integrates sensors, batteries, a control chip, and an RF transmitter in a 35mm-long housing. Lab-in-a-Pill http://www.olympus.co.jp/en/news/2004b/nr041130capsle.cfm University of Glasgow Capsule Endoscope Examine the lining of the middle part of your gastrointestinal tract, which includes the three portions of the small intestine (duodenum, jejunum, ileum).
- 8. “Dentist and engineer partner in Israel.” MIT Technology Review, January, 2005 New H2M Relations
- 9. Micro-robotics team and biologists at Tsukuba University Source: The Guardian Date: 2 May 2002 State University of New York (Suny) Biotronics New H2I & H2A Relations "Go go gadget: With a remote control sensor hotwired to its central nervous system, developments like the "roborat," created at SUNY's Downstate Medical Center, herald the coming of the biotronic age.
- 10. By routing signals from helmet-mounted cameras, sonar and other equipment through the tongue to the brain, they hope to give elite soldiers superhuman senses similar to owls, snakes and fish…. Researchers at the Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition envision their work giving Army Rangers 360-degree unobstructed vision at night and allowing Navy SEALs to sense sonar in their heads while maintaining normal vision underwater -- turning sci-fi into reality. Brain Port: Warriors of the future will 'taste' battlefield CNN - Tuesday, April 25, 2006; Posted: 11:23 a.m. EDT (15:23 GMT)
- 11. 1. Surge of start-up companies, attributable to the legacy telecom slowness to innovate. 2. Cross appropriation of industrial control processes to DoD, homeland security, transportation and consumer electronics 3. Cross appropriation of transportation- based telematics to human, property and livestock tracking 4. Convergent sciences (nano-bio-info- cogno-enviro) expand the applications of M2M, decrease the cost, open up direct manipulation of chemical and biological processes. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/11/20/MN62513.DTL&type=science
- 12. 1. Surge of start-up companies, attributable to the legacy telecom slowness to innovate. 2. Cross appropriation of industrial control processes to DoD, homeland security, transportation and consumer electronics 3. Cross appropriation of transportation- based telematics to human, property and livestock tracking 4. Convergent sciences (nano-bio-info- cogno-enviro) expand the applications of M2M, decrease the cost, open up direct manipulation of chemical and biological processes. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/11/20/MN62513.DTL&type=science
- 13. MIT Tech Review, 2005 Sensors Physical Chemical Biological http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/bbl/03102801.pdf , page 16 Actuators Physical Chemical Biological PhiloMetron™
- 14. NanoBionic Motors Tethered bacterium Swimming bacterium Swimming speed ~ 20-30 µm Protons flux/motor ~ 1200 proton/rev Tethered bacterium Motor efficiency ~ 90-100 % Output power ~ 2.9×10-4 pW Stall torque ~ 4600 pN-nm Nano-motor (45 nm wide)Genetic Engineering Harmless E. coli Mohamed Al-Fandi, Ph.D. Research Assistant Professor of NEMS & MEMS Dept. of Mechanical Engineering & Biomechanics University of Texas
- 15. University of Texas at San Antonio
- 16. Technical applications of biological molecules including protein-based materials, DNA-based materials, biomineralization, cellular systems and bioelectronics. http://www.nanobionics3.de/ NanoBionics
- 17. Adapted from Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO S&T Convergence
- 18. The Age of Science Non- Fiction?
- 19. Industrial Age Scientific Management, Training, Planning and Task Allocation F.W. Taylor, 1911, Principles of Scientific Management Cybernetic Age Cybernetcs "the art of assuring efficiency of action" 1958 by Louis Couffignal. Communication and control of living organisms and machines through manipulation of physical, chemical, biological and neurological processes, systems and environments. Economic, Historic & Philosophic Shift Notion of Information Age
- 20. • Mechatronics – Peer or Embedded M2M • Embedded Computing Workforce Implications • Education Solutions
- 21. Mechatronics Electricity Hydraulics Pneumatics Programmable Logic Controllers Instrumentation Electronics Control SystemsMechanical Sensors Robotics Microcontrollers Motors
- 22. The Age of Science Non- Fiction?
- 23. http://www.adidas.com/campaigns/adidas_1/content/downloads/adidas_1- wp_02_1280_1024.jpg http://www.adidasprlookbook.com/adidas1/index.asp • 1,000th of a second sensor measures gap between heel and a magnet • 20-MHz microcontroller measures changes in compression • Motor spins at 4000 rpm turns a screw loosens cable • Environmentally and operator adaptive shoe sole
- 24. Mechatronics Electricity Hydraulics Pneumatics Programmable Logic Controllers Instrumentation Electronics Control SystemsMechanical Sensors Robotics Microcontrollers Motors
- 28. A
- 29. Energy-CHP
- 30. • Mechatronics – Peer or Embedded M2M • Embedded Computing Workforce Implications • Education Solutions
- 31. The number of jobs requiring technical training is growing at five times the rate of other occupations. Innovate America, U.S. Council on Competitiveness
- 33. Mechatronics Electricity Hydraulics Pneumatics Programmable Logic Controllers Instrumentation Electronics Control SystemsMechanical Sensors Robotics Microcontrollers Motors
- 34. Bio-Instrumentation Drug development Healthcare monitoring Treatment modalities Environmental contamination control Instrumentation Electronics Control SystemsBiotechnology Materials science Bioterrorism Agriculture
- 35. Fuel Cell Mobile – Power for Transportation Stationary – Commercial and Residential Power Portable – Miniature Batteries Combined - Renewable Energy Biomass Instrumentation Electronics Control SystemsMechanical
- 36. Wind Energy Instrumentation Electronics Control SystemsMechanical Instrumentation Hydraulic Systems Electronics Systems Mechanical Systems Airfoils & Composites Data Communications
- 37. Home Technology Integration Information Technology Electronics Control SystemsMechanical Integrated home control Computer/home network Communications Lighting and energy management Security Health Safety Entertainment
- 38. The Age of Science Non- Fiction?
- 40. Navy Job Mergers
- 41. Job Mergers – Wind Turbine Lineman Oil Field Farm Mechanic Wind Turbine Tech
- 42. Adapted from Charles Ostman Senior Fellow Institute for Global Futures NEURO NANO BIOINFO S&T Convergence
- 43. Samuel Palmisano (CEO, IBM): Business Week: 10.11.2004 “100 million jobs are going to be created in a lot of these cross- disciplinary fields” Council on Competitiveness: National Innovation Initiative
- 44. • Mechatronics – Peer or Embedded M2M • Embedded Computing Workforce Implications • Education Solutions
- 45. Mechatronics Electricity Hydraulics Pneumatics Programmable Logic Controllers Instrumentation Electronics Control SystemsMechanical Sensors Robotics Microcontrollers Motors
- 48. Through mixing realities, research is expanding the potential of embedded training in the field and in battle labs to provide integrated training anytime, anywhere. Advancements are being transferred across industries from business prototypes to hospitality training. Integrated research in tracking, registration, rendering, display, and scenario delivery are expanding the possibilities of CONSTRUCTIVE simulation as well as after action review, and command and control visualizations.
- 54. • Mechatronics – Peer or Embedded M2M • Embedded Computing Workforce Implications • Education Solutions
- 55. The Age of Science Non- Fiction?
- 56. www.kurzweilai.net/.../ SIN_headshot_highres.html “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate)… because we're doubling the rate of progress every decade, we'll see a century of progress--at today's rate--in only 25 calendar years.” Kurzweil, KurzweilAI.net, March 7, 2001.
- 57. SuperComputing 95 Teraflop Challenge 1996, $100 million 2001, $1,000,000 2011, $1000 The Future of Computers 1996 Robert A. Freitas Jr., Research Scientist, Zyvex Corp.
- 59. ?
- 60. GlucoboyThe video game that runs on blood.
- 61. Cybernetics is the discipline that studies and creates communication and control systems in living organisms and in the machines built by humans. Greek kybernetes (meaning steersman, governor, pilot, or rudder).
- 62. Industrial Age Scientific Management, Training, Planning and Task Allocation F.W. Taylor, 1911, Principles of Scientific Management Cybernetic Age Cybernetics "the art of assuring efficiency of action" 1958 by Louis Couffignal. Communication and control systems embedded in living organisms and machines through manipulation of physical, chemical, biological and neurological objects, processes, systems and environments. World Shift Notion of Information Age
- 63. M2M and 4th Generation Computing Presented by: Jim Brazell jimbrazell@ventureramp.com Consulting Analyst, Digital Media Collaboratory, UT Austin and the Schriever Institute, San Antonio, TX
Notas do Editor
- Cooper first cellular mobile phone in 1973 In simple terms, Moore ’s Law states that the number of transistors that can be packed on an integrated electronic circuit doubles approximately every 2 years (ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/moorespaper.pdf ) enabling a size: price: performance ratio of smaller, cheaper and more powerful micro electronics. Law of Disruption states that “social, political, and economic systems change incrementally, but technology changes exponentially Metcalfe ’s Law Value of a network increases proportionally with the square of the number of connections
- The goal of the Smart Dust project is to build a self-contained, millimeter-scale sensing and communication platform for a massively distributed sensor network. This device will be around the size of a grain of sand and will contain sensors, computational ability, bi-directional wireless communications, and a power supply, while being inexpensive enough to deploy by the hundreds. The science and engineering goal of the project is to build a complete, complex system in a tiny volume using state-of-the art technologies (as opposed to futuristic technologies), which will require evolutionary and revolutionary advances in integration, miniaturization, and energy management. We forsee many applications for this technology: Weather/seismological monitoring on Mars Internal spacecraft monitoring Land/space comm. networks Chemical/biological sensors Weapons stockpile monitoring Defense-related sensor networks Inventory Control Product quality monitoring Smart office spaces Sports - sailing, balls For more information, see the main Smart Dust page at http://robotics.eecs.berkeley.edu/~pister/SmartDust and read our publications (see navigation button above). Brief description of the operation of the mote: The Smart Dust mote is run by a microcontroller that not only determines the tasks performed by the mote, but controls power to the various components of the system to conserve energy. Periodically the microcontroller gets a reading from one of the sensors, which measure one of a number of physical or chemical stimuli such as temperature, ambient light, vibration, acceleration, or air pressure, processes the data, and stores it in memory. It also occasionally turns on the optical receiver to see if anyone is trying to communicate with it. This communication may include new programs or messages from other motes. In response to a message or upon its own initiative the microcontroller will use the corner cube retroreflector or laser to transmit sensor data or a message to a base station or another mote. Longer description of the operation of the mote: The primary constraint in the design of the Smart Dust motes is volume, which in turn puts a severe constraint on energy since we do not have much room for batteries or large solar cells. Thus, the motes must operate efficiently and conserve energy whenever possible. Most of the time, the majority of the mote is powered off with only a clock and a few timers running. When a timer expires, it powers up a part of the mote to carry out a job, then powers off. A few of the timers control the sensors that measure one of a number of physical or chemical stimuli such as temperature, ambient light, vibration, acceleration, or air pressure. When one of these timers expires, it powers up the corresponding sensor, takes a sample, and converts it to a digital word. If the data is interesting, it may either be stored directly in the SRAM or the microcontroller is powered up to perform more complex operations with it. When this task is complete, everything is again powered down and the timer begins counting again. Another timer controls the receiver. When that timer expires, the receiver powers up and looks for an incoming packet. If it doesn't see one after a certain length of time, it is powered down again. The mote can receive several types of packets, including ones that are new program code that is stored in the program memory. This allows the user to change the behavior of the mote remotely. Packets may also include messages from the base station or other motes. When one of these is received, the microcontroller is powered up and used to interpret the contents of the message. The message may tell the mote to do something in particular, or it may be a message that is just being passed from one mote to another on its way to a particular destination. In response to a message or to another timer expiring, the microcontroller will assemble a packet containing sensor data or a message and transmit it using either the corner cube retroreflector or the laser diode, depending on which it has. The corner cube retroreflector transmits information just by moving a mirror and thus changing the reflection of a laser beam from the base station. This technique is substantially more energy efficient than actually generating some radiation. With the laser diode and a set of beam scanning mirrors, we can transmit data in any direction desired, allowing the mote to communicate with other Smart Dust motes.
- M2M is a category of Information and Computing Technology (ICT) that combines network, computer, software, sensor and power technologies to enable remote human and machine interaction with physical, chemical and biological systems and processes. M2M has many synonyms including “ pervasive computing ”, “ hidden computing ”, “ invisible computing ” and “ ubiquitous computing .” Reach out and touch someone or squeeze someone or… An accelerometer on the wrist-worn device allows rough detection of hand orientation, gesture measurement, and tapping. In the near future researchers will examine simple activity detection as well, such as sitting, walking, and standing. As in the bus stop example, a person wearing the device can sense simple touching. This sensation is enabled through force-sensing resistors that provide pressure detection over a high-resolution surface array on the top of the device. A person can also detect rich signals sent from a partner whirling a finger along the surface of his or her device. Researchers provided this effect by time stamping the sensed data. Motes, such as the one amongst the candy corn above, are at the heart of several Intel research projects. Not only might a wearer experience the simulated touch of a friend, she might also feel the device grow warm to her skin. Using a Peltier Junction, the device can create a subtle heating or cooling on the wearer ’s skin. “ The mapping between the inputs and outputs of paired devices is not literal,” says Paulos. “This is an important part of the design. In the same way people developed a language of numbers around early pagers when they sent messages we believe a similar vocabulary will emerge around physical cues.” For example, to some wearers a gentle warming on the skin might convey a message of friendship. Others might choose to send good vibes by…well by sending good vibes, literally. Intel researchers used simple flat pancake vibration motors to cause wearers to easily and privately feel vibrations though skin contact. Various vibration patterns and duty cycles provide a number of output possibilities for the device. And for those times when good vibes just aren ’t enough, a wearer of the device can send the equivalent of a wireless handhold, an electronic squeeze. Through the use of Flexinol, a user can feel a little squeeze that mimics the grasp of a hand as the filament in the wrist-worn device contracts when electrically powered. Flexinol is a simple variant of Nitinol, which is often used in robotic applications and commonly referred to as “muscle wire” for its ability to exert force and return to its original shape. For all the pleasant thoughts and human analogies there may be a dark side to this device. “Imagine someone incessantly tapping, tapping, tapping. You’d probably feel really annoyed,” says Paulos. “It could be your friend trying to get in touch with you. Or perhaps you’re on the receiving end of a lovers’ quarrel.” “ Yea,” says Paulos, “there is an eerie side to this device. I don’t think anyone want to know what spam feels like.”
- M2M is a category of Information and Computing Technology (ICT) that combines network, computer, software, sensor and power technologies to enable remote human and machine interaction with physical, chemical and biological systems and processes. M2M has many synonyms including “ pervasive computing ”, “ hidden computing ”, “ invisible computing ” and “ ubiquitous computing .” Reach out and touch someone or squeeze someone or… An accelerometer on the wrist-worn device allows rough detection of hand orientation, gesture measurement, and tapping. In the near future researchers will examine simple activity detection as well, such as sitting, walking, and standing. As in the bus stop example, a person wearing the device can sense simple touching. This sensation is enabled through force-sensing resistors that provide pressure detection over a high-resolution surface array on the top of the device. A person can also detect rich signals sent from a partner whirling a finger along the surface of his or her device. Researchers provided this effect by time stamping the sensed data. Motes, such as the one amongst the candy corn above, are at the heart of several Intel research projects. Not only might a wearer experience the simulated touch of a friend, she might also feel the device grow warm to her skin. Using a Peltier Junction, the device can create a subtle heating or cooling on the wearer ’s skin. “ The mapping between the inputs and outputs of paired devices is not literal,” says Paulos. “This is an important part of the design. In the same way people developed a language of numbers around early pagers when they sent messages we believe a similar vocabulary will emerge around physical cues.” For example, to some wearers a gentle warming on the skin might convey a message of friendship. Others might choose to send good vibes by…well by sending good vibes, literally. Intel researchers used simple flat pancake vibration motors to cause wearers to easily and privately feel vibrations though skin contact. Various vibration patterns and duty cycles provide a number of output possibilities for the device. And for those times when good vibes just aren ’t enough, a wearer of the device can send the equivalent of a wireless handhold, an electronic squeeze. Through the use of Flexinol, a user can feel a little squeeze that mimics the grasp of a hand as the filament in the wrist-worn device contracts when electrically powered. Flexinol is a simple variant of Nitinol, which is often used in robotic applications and commonly referred to as “muscle wire” for its ability to exert force and return to its original shape. For all the pleasant thoughts and human analogies there may be a dark side to this device. “Imagine someone incessantly tapping, tapping, tapping. You’d probably feel really annoyed,” says Paulos. “It could be your friend trying to get in touch with you. Or perhaps you’re on the receiving end of a lovers’ quarrel.” “ Yea,” says Paulos, “there is an eerie side to this device. I don’t think anyone want to know what spam feels like.”
- Anti depressant, AIDS and Parkinsons dry mouth effects speech and sleepDentist and engineer
- Cybernetics is a theory of the communication and control of regulatory feedback. The term cybernetics stems from the Greek kybernetes (meaning steersman, governor, pilot, or rudder). Cybernetics is the discipline that studies communication and control in living beings and in the machines built by humans. A more philosophical definition, suggested in 1958 by Louis Couffignal, one of the pioneers of cybernetics in the 1930s, considers cybernetics as "the art of assuring efficiency of action" (see external links for reference). Taylorism F. W. Taylor & Scientific Management Mr. Bill's Preface: In October 1995, there was an extended and at times intense discussion in the Quality E-Mail forum on "Scientific Management" and Frederick W. Taylor. At one point Vincenzo Sandrone submitted a post on the subject that the forum moderator deemed appropriate to the discussion, but to long to be posted to the list. What he did was post a notice to the list that the paper was available from Mr. Sandrone via private E-Mail. What follows is that paper posted on this site with permission of the author. The paper will form part of an undergraduate thesis entitled "Total Quality Engineering - A Holistic Approach to Engineering Management" to be submitted in 1996 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a BE in Manufacturing Engineering at the University of Technology, Sydney, NSW, Australia. Mr. Sandrone's source for quotes is: Taylor Frederick W., 1964, Scientific Management - Comprising Shop Management, The principles of Scientific Management and Testimony before the Special House Committee, Harper and Row All the quotes are from 'Scientific Management' this needs to be highlighted as the edition restarted page numbers for each separate section. That is, page numbers are not unique. Please address any comments or critique to Mr. Sandrone. Regards, Mr. Bill ================================================================== With all the discussion of Taylorism on the list and arguments that both sides did not have the facts, I have decided I may be able to provide some information. I have included a copy of the section on Taylorism from my in process Undergraduate Thesis. I hope that it may help put some facts into the discussion. Looking over the section I have realized that it contained the highest density of direct quotes in my thesis. I feel this was my subconscious way of fighting the, what I considered, misinformation that I had received about Taylorism. Unfortunately I could not find a "definition" of science as applied in Scientific method. However, I would like to make two points: 1) Taylor did not call his original paper "Scientific management" and by the time he published it the name had stuck and his publisher changed the name. (I cannot recall the name of his original paper.) 2) He sort of defines "Scientific Management" by saying what it is not - It is not "Rule of Thumb" when you consider that piece work based on arbitrary quotas ( and heavily biased to the employer) was normal practice. The use of work study/measurement to determine a fair quota was a step forward for both management and the workers. Vincenzo Sandrone QA Engineer GEC Marconi Systems Meadowbank (Sydney), Australia vxsand@gecms.com.au ============================================================== Taylorism Under Taylor's management system, factories are managed through scientific methods rather than by use of the empirical "rule of thumb" so widely prevalent in the days of the late nineteenth century when F. W. Taylor devised his system and published "Scientific Management" in 1911. The main elements of the Scientific Management are [1] : "Time studies Functional or specialized supervision Standardization of tools and implements Standardization of work methods Separate Planning function Management by exception principle The use of "slide-rules and similar time-saving devices" Instruction cards for workmen Task allocation and large bonus for successful performance The use of the 'differential rate' Mnemonic systems for classifying products and implements A routing system A modern costing system etc. etc. " Taylor called these elements "merely the elements or details of the mechanisms of management" He saw them as extensions of the four principles of management.[2] 1. The development of a true science 2. The scientific selection of the workman 3. The scientific education and development of the workman 4. Intimate and friendly cooperation between the management and the men. Taylor warned [3] of the risks managers make in attempting to make change in what would presently be called, the culture, of the organization. He stated the importance of management commitment and the need for gradual implementation and education. He described "the really great problem" involved in the change "consists of the complete revolution in the mental attitude and the habits of all those engaged in the management, as well of the workmen." [4] Taylor taught that there was one and only one method of work that maximized efficiency. "And this one best method and best implementation can only be discovered or developed through scientific study and analysis... This involves the gradual substitution of science for 'rule of thumb' throughout the mechanical arts." [5] "Scientific management requires first, a careful investigation of each of the many modifications of the same implement, developed under rule of thumb; and second, after time and motion study has been made of the speed attainable with each of these implements, that the good points of several of them shall be unified in a single standard implementation, which will enable the workman to work faster and with greater easy than he could before. This one implement, then is the adopted as standard in place of the many different kinds before in use and it remains standard for all workmen to use until superseded by an implement which has been shown, through motion and time study, to be still better." [6] An important barrier to use of scientific management was the limited education of the lower level of supervision and of the work force. A large part of the factory population was composed of recent immigrants who lacked literacy in English. In Taylor's view, supervisors and workers with such low levels of education were not qualified to plan how work should be done. Taylor's solution was to separate planning from execution. "In almost all the mechanic arts the science which underlies each act of each workman is so great and amounts to so much that the workman who is best suited to actually doing the work is incapable of fully understanding this science.." [7] To apply his solution, Taylor created planning departments, staffed them with engineers, and gave them the responsibility to: Develop scientific methods for doing work. Establish goals for productivity. Establish systems of rewards for meeting the goals. Train the personnel in how to use the methods and thereby meet the goals. Perhaps the key idea of Scientific management and the one which has drawn the most criticism was the concept of task allocation. Task allocation [8] is the concept that breaking task into smaller and smaller tasks allows the determination of the optimum solution to the task. "The man in the planning room, whose specialty is planning ahead, invariably finds that the work can be done more economically by subdivision of the labour; each act of each mechanic, for example, should be preceded by various preparatory acts done by other men." [9] The main argument against Taylor is this reductionist approach to work dehumanizes the worker. The allocation of work "specifying not only what is to be done but how it is to done and the exact time allowed for doing it" [10] is seen as leaving no scope for the individual worker to excel or think. This argument is mainly due to later writing rather than Taylor's work as Taylor stated "The task is always so regulated that the man who is well suited to his job will thrive while working at this rate during a long term of years and grow happier and more prosperous, instead of being overworked." [11] Taylor's concept of motivation left something to be desired when compared to later ideas. He methods of motivation started and finished at monetary incentives. While critical of the then prevailing distinction of "us "and "them" between the workforce and employers he tried to find a common ground between the working and managing classes. "Scientific Management has for its foundation the firm conviction that the true interests of the two are one and the same; that prosperity for the employer cannot exist a long term of years unless it is accompanied by prosperity for the employee [sic], and vice versa .." [12] However, this emphasis on monetary rewards was only part of the story. Rivalry between the Bethlehem and Pittsburgh Steel plants led to the offer from Pittsburgh of 4.9 cents per ton against Bethlehem's rate of 3.2 cents per day to the ore loaders. The ore loaders were spoken to individually and their value to the company reinforced and offers to re-hire them at any time were made. The majority of the ore loaders took up the Pittsburgh offers. Most had returned after less than six weeks. [13] The rates at Pittsburgh were determined by gang rates. Peer pressure from the Pittsburgh employees to not work hard meant that the Bethlehem workers actually received less pay than at Bethlehem. Two of the Bethlehem workers requested to be placed in a separate gang, this was rejected by management for the extra work required by management to keep separate record for each worker. Taylor places the blame squarely on management and their inability "to do their share of the work in cooperating with the workmen." [14] Taylor's attitudes towards workers were laden with negative bias "in the majority of cases this man deliberately plans to do as little as he safely can." [15] The methods that Taylor adopted were directed solely towards the uneducated. "When he tells you to pick up a pig and walk, you pick it up and walk, and when he tells you to sit down and rest, you sit down. You do that right through the day. And what's more, no back talk". This type of behaviour towards workers appears barbaric in the extreme to the modern reader, however, Taylor used the example of Schmidt at the Bethlehem Steel Company to test his theories. Taylor admits "This seems rather rough talk. And indeed it would be if applied to an educated mechanic, or even an intelligent labourer." [17] The fact that Taylor took the effort to firstly know the workers name and to cite it is some indication that he empathized with the workforce. This study improved the workrate of Schmidt from 12.5 tons to 47.5 tons per day showing the worth of Scientific Management. The greatest abuse of Scientific Management has come from applying the techniques without the philosophy behind them. It is obvious from Taylor's own observations that the above discussion would be misplaced in other workers. Taylor acknowledged the potential for abuse in his methods. "The knowledge obtained from accurate time study, for example, is a powerful implement, and can be used, in one case to promote harmony between workmen and the management, by gradually educating, training, and leading the workmen into new and better methods of doing the work, or in the other case, it may be used more or less as a club to drive the workmen into doing a larger day's work for approximately the same pay that they received in the past." [17] Scientific Study and standardization were important parts of the Scientific Management. One example, was the study undertaken to determine the optimum shovel load for workers. The figure of 21 pounds [18] was arrived at by the study. To ensure that this shovel load was adhered to, a series of different shovels were purchased for different types of material. Each shovel was designed to ensure that only 21 pounds could be lifted. This stopped the situation where "each shoveller owned his own shovel, that he would frequently go from shoveling ore, with a load of about 30 pounds per shovel, to handling rice coal, with a load on the same shovel of less than 4 pounds. In the one case, he was so overloaded that it was impossible for him to do a full day's work, and in the other case he was so ridiculously under-loaded that it was manifestly impossible to even approximate a day's work." [19] Taylor spent a considerable amount of his books in describing "soldiering" the act of 'loafing' both at an individual level and "systematic soldiering". He described the main reasons that workers were not performing their work at the optimum. Though worded in a patronizing way the essence of the descriptions are still valid. [20] The belief that increased output would lead to less workers. Inefficiencies within the management control system such as poorly designed incentive schemes and hourly pay rates not linked to productivity Poor design of the performance of the work by rule-of-thumb The fear of redundancies within the workforce was a valid argument during the previous style of management. Taylor not only countered this argument by using economic arguments of increased demand due to decreased pricing but put forward the idea of sharing the gains with the workforce. Taylor saw the weaknesses of piece work in the workers reactions to gradual decreases in the piece rate as the worker produced more pieces by working harder and/or smarter. The worker then is determined to have no more reduction in rate by "soldiering". This deception leads to an antagonistic view of management and a general deterioration of the worker/management relationship. Taylor also was a strong advocate of worker development. It follows that the most important object of both the workman and the establishment should be the training and development of each individual in the establishment, so that he can do ( at his fastest pace and with the maximum of efficiency) the highest class of work for which his natural abilities for him." [21] Taylor's ideas on management and workers speaks of justice for both parties. "It (the public) will no longer tolerate the type of employer who has his eyes only on dividends alone, who refuses to do his share of the work and who merely cracks the whip over the heads of his workmen and attempts to drive them harder work for low pay. No more will it tolerate tyranny on the part of labour which demands one increase after another in pay and shorter hours while at the same time it becomes less instead of more efficient."[22] Taylor's system was widely adopted in the United States and the world. Although the Taylor system originated in the factory production departments, the concept of separating planning from execution was universal in nature and, hence, had potential application to other areas: production support services offices operations service industries. Management's new responsibilities were extended to include: [23] Replacing the old rule-of-thumb with scientific management Scientifically select and train, teach and develop the workman "Heartily cooperate with the men so as to insure[sic] all the work being done in accordance with the principles of the science which has been developed" Take over the work for which they are "better fitted" than the workmen. Relationship between Taylorism and TQM Taylor's more general summary of the principles of Scientific Management are better suited for inclusion into the TQM methodology, than the narrow definitions. "It is no single element , but rather the this whole combination, that constitutes Scientific Management, which may be summarized as: Science, not rule of thumb Harmony, not discord Cooperation, not individualism Maximum output in place of restricted output The development of each man to his greatest efficiency and prosperity" [24] Much has happened, since Taylor developed his method of Scientific Management, to make obsolete the premises on which he based his concepts: Lack of education is no longer reason enough to separate the planning function The balance of power between managers and the work force has changed. Where in Taylor's time it was heavily weighted against the workers. Unionism (or the threat of it) has profoundly changed that balance. Changes in the climate of social thinking. Revolts against the "dehumanizing" of work. A basic tenet of Scientific management was that employees were not highly educated and thus were unable to perform any but the simplest tasks. Modern thought is that all employees have intimate knowledge of job conditions and are therefore able to make useful contributions. Rather than dehumanizing the work and breaking the work down into smaller and smaller units to maximize efficiency without giving thought to the job satisfaction of the working. Encouragement of work based teams in which all workers may contribute. Such contributions increase worker morale, provide a sense of ownership, and improve management-worker relations generally. References 1. Scientific Management, pg 129-130 2. Scientific Management, pg 130 3. Scientific Management, pg 131 4. Scientific Management, pg 131 5. Scientific Management, pg 25 6. Scientific Management, pg 119 7. Scientific Management, pp 25-25 8. Scientific Management, pg 39 9. Scientific Management, pg 38 10. Scientific Management, pg 39 11. Scientific Management, pg 39 12. Scientific Management, pg 10 13. Scientific Management, pg 75 14. Scientific Management, pg 77 15. Scientific Management, pg 13 16. Scientific Management, pg 46 17. Scientific Management, pp 133-134 18. Scientific Management, pg 66 19. Scientific Management, pg 67 20. Scientific Management, pg 23 21. Scientific Management, pg 12 22. Scientific Management, pg 139 23. Scientific Management, pg 36 24. Scientific Management, pg 140 Vincenzo Sandrone QA Engineer GEC Marconi Systems Meadowbank (Sydney), Australia vxsand@gecms.com.au An mr_bill@grfn.org Internet publication. December 10, 1995
- The Age of Spiritual Machines – When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence The Singularity Is Near : When Humans Transcend Biology
- The Future of Computers http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/TheFutureOfComputers--Analog--March1996.htm (c) 1996 Robert A. Freitas Jr. Research Scientist Zyvex Corp. Citation : Robert A. Freitas Jr., “The Future of Computers,” Analog 116(March 1996):57-73.
- Cybernetics is a theory of the communication and control of regulatory feedback. The term cybernetics stems from the Greek kybernetes (meaning steersman, governor, pilot, or rudder). Cybernetics is the discipline that studies communication and control in living beings and in the machines built by humans. A more philosophical definition, suggested in 1958 by Louis Couffignal, one of the pioneers of cybernetics in the 1930s, considers cybernetics as "the art of assuring efficiency of action" (see external links for reference). Taylorism F. W. Taylor & Scientific Management Mr. Bill's Preface: In October 1995, there was an extended and at times intense discussion in the Quality E-Mail forum on "Scientific Management" and Frederick W. Taylor. At one point Vincenzo Sandrone submitted a post on the subject that the forum moderator deemed appropriate to the discussion, but to long to be posted to the list. What he did was post a notice to the list that the paper was available from Mr. Sandrone via private E-Mail. What follows is that paper posted on this site with permission of the author. The paper will form part of an undergraduate thesis entitled "Total Quality Engineering - A Holistic Approach to Engineering Management" to be submitted in 1996 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a BE in Manufacturing Engineering at the University of Technology, Sydney, NSW, Australia. Mr. Sandrone's source for quotes is: Taylor Frederick W., 1964, Scientific Management - Comprising Shop Management, The principles of Scientific Management and Testimony before the Special House Committee, Harper and Row All the quotes are from 'Scientific Management' this needs to be highlighted as the edition restarted page numbers for each separate section. That is, page numbers are not unique. Please address any comments or critique to Mr. Sandrone. Regards, Mr. Bill ================================================================== With all the discussion of Taylorism on the list and arguments that both sides did not have the facts, I have decided I may be able to provide some information. I have included a copy of the section on Taylorism from my in process Undergraduate Thesis. I hope that it may help put some facts into the discussion. Looking over the section I have realized that it contained the highest density of direct quotes in my thesis. I feel this was my subconscious way of fighting the, what I considered, misinformation that I had received about Taylorism. Unfortunately I could not find a "definition" of science as applied in Scientific method. However, I would like to make two points: 1) Taylor did not call his original paper "Scientific management" and by the time he published it the name had stuck and his publisher changed the name. (I cannot recall the name of his original paper.) 2) He sort of defines "Scientific Management" by saying what it is not - It is not "Rule of Thumb" when you consider that piece work based on arbitrary quotas ( and heavily biased to the employer) was normal practice. The use of work study/measurement to determine a fair quota was a step forward for both management and the workers. Vincenzo Sandrone QA Engineer GEC Marconi Systems Meadowbank (Sydney), Australia vxsand@gecms.com.au ============================================================== Taylorism Under Taylor's management system, factories are managed through scientific methods rather than by use of the empirical "rule of thumb" so widely prevalent in the days of the late nineteenth century when F. W. Taylor devised his system and published "Scientific Management" in 1911. The main elements of the Scientific Management are [1] : "Time studies Functional or specialized supervision Standardization of tools and implements Standardization of work methods Separate Planning function Management by exception principle The use of "slide-rules and similar time-saving devices" Instruction cards for workmen Task allocation and large bonus for successful performance The use of the 'differential rate' Mnemonic systems for classifying products and implements A routing system A modern costing system etc. etc. " Taylor called these elements "merely the elements or details of the mechanisms of management" He saw them as extensions of the four principles of management.[2] 1. The development of a true science 2. The scientific selection of the workman 3. The scientific education and development of the workman 4. Intimate and friendly cooperation between the management and the men. Taylor warned [3] of the risks managers make in attempting to make change in what would presently be called, the culture, of the organization. He stated the importance of management commitment and the need for gradual implementation and education. He described "the really great problem" involved in the change "consists of the complete revolution in the mental attitude and the habits of all those engaged in the management, as well of the workmen." [4] Taylor taught that there was one and only one method of work that maximized efficiency. "And this one best method and best implementation can only be discovered or developed through scientific study and analysis... This involves the gradual substitution of science for 'rule of thumb' throughout the mechanical arts." [5] "Scientific management requires first, a careful investigation of each of the many modifications of the same implement, developed under rule of thumb; and second, after time and motion study has been made of the speed attainable with each of these implements, that the good points of several of them shall be unified in a single standard implementation, which will enable the workman to work faster and with greater easy than he could before. This one implement, then is the adopted as standard in place of the many different kinds before in use and it remains standard for all workmen to use until superseded by an implement which has been shown, through motion and time study, to be still better." [6] An important barrier to use of scientific management was the limited education of the lower level of supervision and of the work force. A large part of the factory population was composed of recent immigrants who lacked literacy in English. In Taylor's view, supervisors and workers with such low levels of education were not qualified to plan how work should be done. Taylor's solution was to separate planning from execution. "In almost all the mechanic arts the science which underlies each act of each workman is so great and amounts to so much that the workman who is best suited to actually doing the work is incapable of fully understanding this science.." [7] To apply his solution, Taylor created planning departments, staffed them with engineers, and gave them the responsibility to: Develop scientific methods for doing work. Establish goals for productivity. Establish systems of rewards for meeting the goals. Train the personnel in how to use the methods and thereby meet the goals. Perhaps the key idea of Scientific management and the one which has drawn the most criticism was the concept of task allocation. Task allocation [8] is the concept that breaking task into smaller and smaller tasks allows the determination of the optimum solution to the task. "The man in the planning room, whose specialty is planning ahead, invariably finds that the work can be done more economically by subdivision of the labour; each act of each mechanic, for example, should be preceded by various preparatory acts done by other men." [9] The main argument against Taylor is this reductionist approach to work dehumanizes the worker. The allocation of work "specifying not only what is to be done but how it is to done and the exact time allowed for doing it" [10] is seen as leaving no scope for the individual worker to excel or think. This argument is mainly due to later writing rather than Taylor's work as Taylor stated "The task is always so regulated that the man who is well suited to his job will thrive while working at this rate during a long term of years and grow happier and more prosperous, instead of being overworked." [11] Taylor's concept of motivation left something to be desired when compared to later ideas. He methods of motivation started and finished at monetary incentives. While critical of the then prevailing distinction of "us "and "them" between the workforce and employers he tried to find a common ground between the working and managing classes. "Scientific Management has for its foundation the firm conviction that the true interests of the two are one and the same; that prosperity for the employer cannot exist a long term of years unless it is accompanied by prosperity for the employee [sic], and vice versa .." [12] However, this emphasis on monetary rewards was only part of the story. Rivalry between the Bethlehem and Pittsburgh Steel plants led to the offer from Pittsburgh of 4.9 cents per ton against Bethlehem's rate of 3.2 cents per day to the ore loaders. The ore loaders were spoken to individually and their value to the company reinforced and offers to re-hire them at any time were made. The majority of the ore loaders took up the Pittsburgh offers. Most had returned after less than six weeks. [13] The rates at Pittsburgh were determined by gang rates. Peer pressure from the Pittsburgh employees to not work hard meant that the Bethlehem workers actually received less pay than at Bethlehem. Two of the Bethlehem workers requested to be placed in a separate gang, this was rejected by management for the extra work required by management to keep separate record for each worker. Taylor places the blame squarely on management and their inability "to do their share of the work in cooperating with the workmen." [14] Taylor's attitudes towards workers were laden with negative bias "in the majority of cases this man deliberately plans to do as little as he safely can." [15] The methods that Taylor adopted were directed solely towards the uneducated. "When he tells you to pick up a pig and walk, you pick it up and walk, and when he tells you to sit down and rest, you sit down. You do that right through the day. And what's more, no back talk". This type of behaviour towards workers appears barbaric in the extreme to the modern reader, however, Taylor used the example of Schmidt at the Bethlehem Steel Company to test his theories. Taylor admits "This seems rather rough talk. And indeed it would be if applied to an educated mechanic, or even an intelligent labourer." [17] The fact that Taylor took the effort to firstly know the workers name and to cite it is some indication that he empathized with the workforce. This study improved the workrate of Schmidt from 12.5 tons to 47.5 tons per day showing the worth of Scientific Management. The greatest abuse of Scientific Management has come from applying the techniques without the philosophy behind them. It is obvious from Taylor's own observations that the above discussion would be misplaced in other workers. Taylor acknowledged the potential for abuse in his methods. "The knowledge obtained from accurate time study, for example, is a powerful implement, and can be used, in one case to promote harmony between workmen and the management, by gradually educating, training, and leading the workmen into new and better methods of doing the work, or in the other case, it may be used more or less as a club to drive the workmen into doing a larger day's work for approximately the same pay that they received in the past." [17] Scientific Study and standardization were important parts of the Scientific Management. One example, was the study undertaken to determine the optimum shovel load for workers. The figure of 21 pounds [18] was arrived at by the study. To ensure that this shovel load was adhered to, a series of different shovels were purchased for different types of material. Each shovel was designed to ensure that only 21 pounds could be lifted. This stopped the situation where "each shoveller owned his own shovel, that he would frequently go from shoveling ore, with a load of about 30 pounds per shovel, to handling rice coal, with a load on the same shovel of less than 4 pounds. In the one case, he was so overloaded that it was impossible for him to do a full day's work, and in the other case he was so ridiculously under-loaded that it was manifestly impossible to even approximate a day's work." [19] Taylor spent a considerable amount of his books in describing "soldiering" the act of 'loafing' both at an individual level and "systematic soldiering". He described the main reasons that workers were not performing their work at the optimum. Though worded in a patronizing way the essence of the descriptions are still valid. [20] The belief that increased output would lead to less workers. Inefficiencies within the management control system such as poorly designed incentive schemes and hourly pay rates not linked to productivity Poor design of the performance of the work by rule-of-thumb The fear of redundancies within the workforce was a valid argument during the previous style of management. Taylor not only countered this argument by using economic arguments of increased demand due to decreased pricing but put forward the idea of sharing the gains with the workforce. Taylor saw the weaknesses of piece work in the workers reactions to gradual decreases in the piece rate as the worker produced more pieces by working harder and/or smarter. The worker then is determined to have no more reduction in rate by "soldiering". This deception leads to an antagonistic view of management and a general deterioration of the worker/management relationship. Taylor also was a strong advocate of worker development. It follows that the most important object of both the workman and the establishment should be the training and development of each individual in the establishment, so that he can do ( at his fastest pace and with the maximum of efficiency) the highest class of work for which his natural abilities for him." [21] Taylor's ideas on management and workers speaks of justice for both parties. "It (the public) will no longer tolerate the type of employer who has his eyes only on dividends alone, who refuses to do his share of the work and who merely cracks the whip over the heads of his workmen and attempts to drive them harder work for low pay. No more will it tolerate tyranny on the part of labour which demands one increase after another in pay and shorter hours while at the same time it becomes less instead of more efficient."[22] Taylor's system was widely adopted in the United States and the world. Although the Taylor system originated in the factory production departments, the concept of separating planning from execution was universal in nature and, hence, had potential application to other areas: production support services offices operations service industries. Management's new responsibilities were extended to include: [23] Replacing the old rule-of-thumb with scientific management Scientifically select and train, teach and develop the workman "Heartily cooperate with the men so as to insure[sic] all the work being done in accordance with the principles of the science which has been developed" Take over the work for which they are "better fitted" than the workmen. Relationship between Taylorism and TQM Taylor's more general summary of the principles of Scientific Management are better suited for inclusion into the TQM methodology, than the narrow definitions. "It is no single element , but rather the this whole combination, that constitutes Scientific Management, which may be summarized as: Science, not rule of thumb Harmony, not discord Cooperation, not individualism Maximum output in place of restricted output The development of each man to his greatest efficiency and prosperity" [24] Much has happened, since Taylor developed his method of Scientific Management, to make obsolete the premises on which he based his concepts: Lack of education is no longer reason enough to separate the planning function The balance of power between managers and the work force has changed. Where in Taylor's time it was heavily weighted against the workers. Unionism (or the threat of it) has profoundly changed that balance. Changes in the climate of social thinking. Revolts against the "dehumanizing" of work. A basic tenet of Scientific management was that employees were not highly educated and thus were unable to perform any but the simplest tasks. Modern thought is that all employees have intimate knowledge of job conditions and are therefore able to make useful contributions. Rather than dehumanizing the work and breaking the work down into smaller and smaller units to maximize efficiency without giving thought to the job satisfaction of the working. Encouragement of work based teams in which all workers may contribute. Such contributions increase worker morale, provide a sense of ownership, and improve management-worker relations generally. References 1. Scientific Management, pg 129-130 2. Scientific Management, pg 130 3. Scientific Management, pg 131 4. Scientific Management, pg 131 5. Scientific Management, pg 25 6. Scientific Management, pg 119 7. Scientific Management, pp 25-25 8. Scientific Management, pg 39 9. Scientific Management, pg 38 10. Scientific Management, pg 39 11. Scientific Management, pg 39 12. Scientific Management, pg 10 13. Scientific Management, pg 75 14. Scientific Management, pg 77 15. Scientific Management, pg 13 16. Scientific Management, pg 46 17. Scientific Management, pp 133-134 18. Scientific Management, pg 66 19. Scientific Management, pg 67 20. Scientific Management, pg 23 21. Scientific Management, pg 12 22. Scientific Management, pg 139 23. Scientific Management, pg 36 24. Scientific Management, pg 140 Vincenzo Sandrone QA Engineer GEC Marconi Systems Meadowbank (Sydney), Australia vxsand@gecms.com.au An mr_bill@grfn.org Internet publication. December 10, 1995