Delivered at Casual Connect USA 2016. In this talk, Eric will present a framework for using AppAnnie’s free data to conduct market research before a title goes into development. It will also walk through the different aspects that should be considered when beginning development, such as: theme, aesthetic, IP, and genre saturation. And finally, Eric will introduce a tool for using AppAnnie’s data to provide a quantitative measure of each of those aspects.

1. Using (Free!) AppAnnie
Data to Optimize Your Next
Game
Eric Benjamin Seufert
Heracles

2. WHO AM I?
Partner,
Heracles
Owner,
Mobile Dev Memo
Author,
Freemium
Economics

3. YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU
MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

4. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE
SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE
AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU
MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

7. US MOBILE AD
SPEND:
2015: $32BN
2016: $44BN
2017: $53BN
2018: $61BN
2019: $69BN
2020: $77BN

8. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE
SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE
AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY
WELL OR 2) HAVE MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU
MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

10. • MARKETING COSTS ARE INCREASING BECAUSE
SMARTPHONE SALES ARE SLOWING AND PEOPLE
AREN’T DOWNLOADING MANY NEW APPS;
• YOUR COMPETITORS EITHER 1) MONETIZE USERS VERY
WELL OR HAS MASSIVE IP ATTACHMENTS;
• MAKING GAMES IS EXPENSIVE. IF YOU DEVELOP &
RELEASE THE WRONG GAME, MASSIVE LOSS.
YOU CAN’T SIMPLY MAKE A GAME. YOU
MUST MAKE THE RIGHT GAME.

11. HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

12. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

13. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

14. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

15. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

16. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?
4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

17. ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS:
1. WHO WANTS TO PLAY THIS GAME?
2. ARE THERE A LOT OF THESE PEOPLE?
3. DO THEY HAVE DISPOSABLE INCOME?
4. ARE THEY COMPETITIVE? SOCIAL?
5. WILL THEY RESPOND TO THIS GAME’S ADS?
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

18. THE SOONER YOU CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS, THE
LESS RISK YOU BEAR!
HOW TO VET A GAME BEFORE LAUNCH

19. DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
CONCEPT
STAGE
SOFT
LAUNCH
GLOBAL
LAUNCH
$ $$ $$$
VETTING A GAME: THREE OPTIONS
RISK / SUNK DEVELOPMENT COSTS

20. WHAT DOES AN OPPORTUNITY LOOK LIKE?

21. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING

22. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Massive developer with huge balance sheet

23. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING

24. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Massive developer with huge balance sheet

25. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING

26. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Developer successfully scaling viable game
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio

27. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING

28. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Small developer with great game
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Developer successfully scaling viable game

29. TOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSING

30. BREAKING DOWN TOP 100 GROSSINGTOPGROSSINGCHART
100
50
20
“BASIC” UA
SYSTEMATIC UA AND / OR GENERAL RECOGNITION
SOPHISTICATED UA AND / OR WIDESPREAD RECOGNITION
MASSIVE UA AND / OR HOUSEHOLD NAME RECOGNITION
Large developer, usually operating big portfolio
Massive developer with huge balance sheet
Developer successfully scaling viable game
Small developer with great game

31. FILLING IN THE MATRIX
Could fill it in by hand based on intuition...
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL

32. MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
Could fill it in by hand based on intuition...

33. MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

34. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

35. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:
• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are
popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking
for games with long lifetimes;
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

36. TWO OTHER PROBLEMS:
• Recency bias. Will likely only place games that are
popular now or in recent past, but really we’re looking
for games with long lifetimes;
• Very likely to focus on one point in time, when in reality
we want to see the app’s trend in grossing (viability =
ability to reinvest into marketing).
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
...but that’s subjective, tedious, and not very scientific.

37. A BETTER APPROACH

38. A BETTER APPROACH
USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.

39. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
A BETTER APPROACH

40. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;
A BETTER APPROACH

41. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;
2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN
AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10
GROSSING!);
A BETTER APPROACH

42. USE (FREE) APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND OPPORTUNITIES,
SCORE THEM, AND PLACE THEM ON THE CHART.
OPPORTUNITY FORMULA:
1.REACHED TOP 50 IN PAST YEAR;
2.NOT FROM STUDIO WITH ANY TOP 20 GROSSING GAME (THEY CAN
AFFORD TO MAKE GAMES BIG IF THEY’RE VIABLE AT TOP 10
GROSSING!);
3.ON UPWARD TRAJECTORY IN GROSSING CHART.
A BETTER APPROACH

43. CAN BE TAKEN FROM FREE APP ANNIE ACCOUNT (EITHER
WRITE A SCRIPT OR HIRE AN INTERN):
• 70mb JSON file, 365 days of Top 100 charts;
• Number of apps in Top 100 Grossing (US / iPhone) in
past 365 days: 355
• Number of excluded developers: 56
• Apps classified as representing “opportunities”: 33
THE DATA

44. SCORING APPROACH:
• Use app descriptions to classify M / F (-10 to 10);
• Use app icons and screenshots to classify mass / niche
appeal;
THE DATA

45. FILLING IN THE MATRIX
Heat map based on results of analysis
MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
Darkness (color) = grossing trajectory (simple linear
regression of grossing values, controlling for # of
rankings and r2);
Size = density of titles.

46. MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
FILLING IN THE MATRIX
Heat map based on results of analysis

47. WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST
Rank Position
(US / iPhone)
Top Grossing
Last 365 Days

48. PEAK GAMES
• No games in the Top 20;
• 6-person UA team (as per LinkedIn);
Didn’t get into Grossing position from brute-force
marketing but rather appeal + viable unit economics
WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST

49. MALE FEMALE
MASS APPEAL
NICHE APPEAL
WE ARE LOOKING FOR GAMES LIKE TOY BLAST

50. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.

51. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
• Click ads;
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.

52. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
• Click ads;
• Invite friends;
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.

53. IF I MAKE AN EXCELLENT GAME FOR THIS AUDIENCE, I
KNOW THEY CAN:
• Click ads;
• Invite friends;
• Spend money.
TOY BLAST’S AUDIENCE FACILITATES A TOP 50
GROSSING GAME.

54. UP AND TO THE RIGHT

55. UP AND TO THE RIGHT

56. UP AND TO THE RIGHT

57. CAUTIONARY TALES

58. BIG CELEBRITY CO-BRAND

59. KIDS’ SHOW IP LICENSE

60. MegaBigDeveloperCo’s New Brand Launch

61. WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?

62. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?

63. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
a) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20
titles? Which audience are they targeting?
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?

64. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
a) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20
titles? Which audience are they targeting?
2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?

65. 1) USE APP ANNIE DATA TO FIND YOUR OPPORTUNITY
a) Which games are achieving grossing positions
without financing marketing from other Top 20
titles? Which audience are they targeting?
2) CLICK TEST YOUR CONCEPT BEFORE DEVELOPMENT
a) Does our game concept capably reach that
audience? Will they click on ads?
WHAT IS THE PROCESS TO IMPLEMENT THIS
FRAMEWORK?

66. “If you know the enemy and know
yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred battles. If you know yourself but
not the enemy, for every victory gained
you will also suffer a defeat. If you know
neither the enemy nor yourself, you will
succumb in every battle.”

67. “If you know YOUR AUDIENCE and know
yourself, you need not fear the result of a
hundred LAUNCHES. If you know yourself
but not YOUR AUDIENCE, for every RANK
gained you will also suffer CPI > LTV. If you
know neither YOUR AUDIENCE nor
yourself, you will LOSE MONEY in every
LAUNCH.”

68. eric@hrcls.co
@eric_seufert
hrcls.co
mobiledevmemo.com
THANKS!