2. 1/2
Trust FTSE 100 (12 months)
Do you tend to trust people ? • Trust in UK government rose to 41% in 2008.
• Most trusted sectors
75% 75%
– Technology (76%),
– Biotech(66%)
– Healthcare (65%)
• Least trusted sectors
50% 50% – Banks (45%)
– Media(42%)
66% – Insurance (40%)
• Creating Jobs and Socially responsible
25% 25% activities are the top factor for building trust in
44% business
29%
• Global warming (77%) is the most important
issue for companies to address.
• Credibility of ‘a person like yourself’ is
1950’s 1980’s 2000’s influenced by
– shared interests (61%)
What are you doing to build and reinforce trust? January 2009
According to the ninth annual Edelman Trust barometer,
Global Futures Global Futures
Source: New Global Survey shows trust levels at a low
& Foresight & Foresight
http://www.edelman.co.uk/insights/trust/Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Release.pdf
The “V or W”
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
Recessionary strategies The mother of invention
• Market Share
• Mergers and Acquisitions
• Cost reduction
• Efficiencies
• Agility
• Innovation
• New Products & Services
• New distribution
• New business models
• New participants
http://news.icm.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/image/552-1215523032.jpg
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
3. “Be fearful when others are
greedy, and be greedy when
others are fearful.“
Warren Buffett
The Future
Global Futures mycpf.cpf.gov.sg Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
Winning Strategies Winning Strategies
“The winners will be the companies who “It's really hard to design products by focus
knew how to identify opportunities in the groups. A lot of times, people don't know
downturn.” what they want until you show it to them.”
Jim Davis, chief marketing officer, SAS Steve Jobs, Co-Founder, Chairman & CEO, Apple
1930 1932 1933 Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
Winning Strategies Winning Strategies
“We don’t ask consumers what they want. “Great work comes from insight. Insights are
They don’t know. Instead we apply our going to come in so many different ways.”
brain power to what they need, and will Laura Lang, CEO, Digitas USA, March 2008
want, then make sure we’re there, ready.”
Akio Morita, Co-Founder, Sony Corporation
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
4. Global Trends
1. Global instability 13. Declining trust
In 1977, the year that Elvis
2. Volatile worldwide 14. Cult of celebrity
economy 15. Individualization died, there were 150
3. Globalisation 2.0 16. Age of brands impersonators in the USA.
4. Global warming
5. Energy, water and talent
17. Social applications Now there are 85,000.
18. Technological
shortages
convergence
6. Bio continues to grow If the same rate of growth
7. Aging societies 19. Video everywhere
8. Unretirement 20. VOip & ipTV continues, Elvis impersonators
9. Work-life blend 21. Nano technology will account for a third of the
10. Feminization 22. Digital 24/7 lifestyles
11. Wealth, health and 23. Cashless society
world's population by 2019.
happiness 24. Mobility & convenience
12. Urbanization 25. Rise of the robots
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight http://www.management-issues.com/2006/5/25/opinion/the-future-of-work-its-life-jim-but-not-as-we-know-it.asp & Foresight
New World Order
Risk
0 10
5
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
e
a tiv
Structural change re l Changing influence
‘If one big structural
change comes out
of the crisis, it will
be a shift in
ownership of the
banking industry
from west to east.’
David Lascelles,
A former banking editor of the
Financial Times
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12274054 http:/ /images .google .c o.uk /imgres ?imgurl=ht tp:/ /s tatic . flic k r.c om/50/109139708_79b5b5d6eb. jpg&i mgrefurl=http :// thiv er.wordpres s .c om/2006/03/07/c hina-will-probably -be-bigges t-world-ec onomy-before-2015/&us g=__5Qq92q9y v fqIgk OS6BpC8s Vnrv g=&h=366&w=500&s z =57&h l=en&s tart=29 &um=1 &tbnid= IMv f Se7AF F0EH M: &tbnh=95 &tbnw=130&prev =/i mages %3Fq %3Dthe %2Bworlds %2B larges t%2Bec onom ies %2 Bc hart%26s tart% 3D20%26nds p%3D20%26u m%3D1 %26hl %3Den%26s a %3DN
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ea450788-1573-11de-b9a9-0000779fd2ac.html
Global Futures Global Futures
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/topstories.aspx?ID=BD4A844188
& Foresight & Foresight
5. Economic Growth – Next 10 Years Global population growth
1.75bn of next 2.5bn will be born in Muslim countries
• BRIC economies:
– deliver 40% global growth by 2018.
– 30% global GDP - China makes up
18%.(1)
"We now conceive of China
2009
challenging the U.S. for number 6.8 billion
one slot by 2027.
This is around 10 years earlier
than when we first looked at the
issue.“
Goldman Sachs economist who coined the BRIC
concept told Reuters on June 9th 2009
The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight www.watchblog.com Source: Population Research Bureau www.prb.org & Foresight
(1) Ernst & Young in December 2008 forecast/ Goldman Sachs June 9th 2009 forecast
Changing influence Changing ethnicity
Global Futures www.brusselsjournal.com Global Futures
Source: United Nations Population Division, & Foresight & Foresight
The world Depletion of resources
Unabated climate change could cost the world 5% of GDP/year; if more
dramatic predictions come to pass, the cost could be more than 20% of GDP.
• Tensions over water heightened by 2015,
in Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, South
Asia and Northern China
• India uses up/pollutes groundwater by 2020
• Bio-fuels compete with food for land/water.
One year of food or a tank of SUV fuel.
• 2oC temperature increase means a 12% to
20% fall in global food production by 2100.
• By 2050 we will be 9.6bn but eat like 13bn.
• Global agriculture output must double in the
next 30 years to sustain population growth.
World Bank estimates
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight According to Stanford University and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers
& Foresight
6. Future CSR directions Climate change & staying in business
Rising sea levels, increasing droughts and famine, and a decrease
in water availability will have dramatic impacts
“Companies that are not
• By 2030 - global energy demand grows by 55%. adequately managing the
• By 2025 - extreme water scarcity impacts 25% of world population. consequences of climate
• The scramble for resources will be a major cause of conflict. change on their business
• The solution is to be more efficient and promote sustainability. will not be welcomed as our
customers in the future”
Rick Murray
• CSR-led initiatives can: Chief Claims Strategist
– Offset rising prices Swiss Re
– Provide a competitive advantage
– Act as a major tool for the aversion of social crisis.
• Do we know the environmental footprint of our activities?
• Sustainability & efficiency save cost & increase the company’s value. • Have we assessed the cost advantages of reducing our footprint on the environment?
• How close are we to achieving carbon neutral, waste neutral and energy neutral status?
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.com & Foresight
http://csr-news.net/main/2008/08/04/megatrends-and-the-future-of-corporate-social-responsibility/
New People Ageing populations
Since 1840, the highest average life
expectancy has improved by a quarter
of a year every year.
• Those born in the
– 1950’s expect to live to beyond 90
– 1960’s onwards to live beyond 100
• Record 9,000 100 years olds in 2007
• Rising to 40,000 by 2031.
• 1.2 million by 2075*
UK 79 in 2009 (Total Pop’n)
100 in 2090
110 in 2130
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight * Office of National Statistics & Foresight
and what do older people want ? And we’re living longer lives
Dr. Aubrey de Grey of Cambridge
• Larger Print University believes that human life
expectancies have the potential to
• Brighter lights reach 500, or possibly even 1000.
• Seating
• Parking “The first person to live
• Toilets to 1,000 might be 60
• Time already” B.A., M.A. and Ph.D.,
University of Cambridge,
Etc. Cambridge, UK.
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
7. Obesity Too few kids
35
30
25
20
Men
15 Women
10
5
0
1993 2003 2005 2010
By 2015, approximately 2.3
billion adults will be overweight
and more than 700 million will
be obese.
(The World Health Organisation)
Children per woman worldwide
Average children per woman in UK now 1.9 highest since 1980
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
Up or down the workers? Upturn Consumer
• Aged 15 – 59 by 2050
– India will experience growth
– Down 5% - Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia
– Down 5% to 10% - USA, UK and Australia
– Down 15% - China
United Nations Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
Impact Consumers But which attitudes?
• Social attitudes will be shaken:
– The deeper the recession Three plausible future scenarios
– The longer the recession
• A long, deep recession could
alter the attitudes of society 1. Goods, Greed and Glamour
irrevocably... 2. Modesty and Austerity
3. New Status
...or at least a segment of society
Global Futures Global Futures
http://www.sxc.hu/browse.phtml?f=download&id=834091
& Foresight & Foresight
8. Goods, Greed and Glamour Modesty and Austerity
• Saving now a habit; deleveraging personal finances
• The recession is a pause in the journey to a more
seen as virtuous.
consumerist society.
• Greed resurfaces as soon as the market recovers. • Penny pinching seen as the clever game.
• Once price-watching gets boring, people spend again. • Savvy consumers trade down, use comparison and
• Government stimulation packages signal spending is voucher websites.
good and patriotic. • Back to basics, eg. Fashion is 'body covering‘, food
for calories.
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
New Status Indicative Projections
• Emphasis on ethics - honesty, hard work, social 80
responsibility, ecology. 70
• New status spending non material areas: arts and 60
culture, self education, health, beauty and spirituality;
50
• The focus is towards 'spending on what money can't
Greed
buy' – a paradox!
% population anticipated
40
Austerity
• People have got money again & want to spend. 30 New status
20
10
0
Shor t, shallow Short, deep Long, deep
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
New
Business Models Premise underlying re-invention
• Reconfigured relationships.
• Mash-up business models.
• Consumer increasingly powerful.
• Innovation is a key differentiator.
• Convenience & Quality expected.
http://media.economist.com/images/20050402/1405LD1.jpg
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
9. 3/4
Change Disintermediation
Change • Music
Change •
– itunes – Individual songs/not albums
Travel Agency
– Trip Adviser – book hotels/not packages
– Easyjet – book flights/not packages
• Lending/borrowing money
– Zopa – direct to lender/cut out banks
• Real Estate
– Findaproperty, Tesco Estate Agency
Change Part of the rise in people taking
control and not relying on others.
Change
Change Global Futures
& Foresight
Global Futures
& Foresight
Doing Business Networks
Social Networks Trust & Social Networking
• Global relationships • 7% increase in positive word of
• Learning mouth unlocks 1% additional company
growth (London School of Economics (LSE))
• Sourcing ideas
• Co-creation • 2% reduction in negative word of
mouth boosts sales by 1%. (LSE Figures)
• Recruitment
• Building relationships
• Community engagement
• Networked business models
Over 1.5 billion people in top 40 Social Networks
http://www.dreamsystemsmedia.com/imgs/social-media-marketing.png
Global Futures http://www.bazaarvoice.com/industryStats.html Global Futures
Source: The GFF Pulse expert panel survey & Foresight & Foresight
Innovation Networks In a crowded 24/7 world
• You can’t know it all
or have all the best ideas • Context
• Ford spent $8bn on R&D
in 2005 and lost $17bn in 2006
• Community
• Conversation
• Learn to connect - Proctor & Gamble did
• Relevance
– For every P&G researcher 200 more existed outside.
– Built an external development network of 3m
– Launch time halved and innovation rate up 75%
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight Gerd Leonard – Media Futurist & Foresight
10. Technology
Global Futures Global Futures
Gerd Leonard – Media Futurist & Foresight & Foresight
Technology - What will it be doing Nanotechnology Breakthroughs
– Connection Nanotechnology Breakthroughs
• Nanotechnology — the manipulation of materials and machines at the nano-
– Image scale — one billionth of a meter — promises exciting new developments.
– Video everywhere
– Voice recognition Two to five years from now:
– Robotics • Complete medical diagnostics on a single computer chip.
– Cognitive recognition Five to 10 years
– Health diagnostics
• Drugs that turn AIDS & cancer into manageable conditions.
– Nano ‘surgery’
– Virtual reality 10 to 15 years
– Simulation • Artificial intelligence so sophisticated you can't tell if you're
– Tracking talking on the phone with a human or a machine.
– Surveillance
– Security Highest Growth over the next 5 years :
– Vehicle control – electronics (30.3%)
– Personalisation – biomedical (56.2%)
– Integration – consumer applications(45.9%)
– Outside Technology
Global Futures http://www.wfs.org/tomorrow/index.htm Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
Internet traffic The Grid
• Internet could soon be obsolete.
• Annual growth of 50% - 60%.
• The Grid is 10,000 times faster
• IP traffic in 2012 will be 100
than a typical broadband
times larger than 2002.
connection.
• Mobile data traffic will double
each year from 2008 to 2012. http://www.grid.phys.uvic.ca/assets/sun_figures/Grid-2.jpg
Andrew Odlyzko - Cisco
“With this kind of computing power, future generations will
have the ability to collaborate and communicate in ways
older people like me cannot even imagine”
http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/images/white_paper_c11-481374-03.jpg
David Britton, professor of physics at Glasgow University
Global Futures Global Futures
http://gigaom.com/2008/06/16/big-growth-for-internet-to-continue-cisco-predicts/ & Foresight & Foresight
11. 5
Telepresencing Virtual World Networks
The social networking application market:
$ 46.8 million in 2006
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight $428.3 million by 2009 & Foresight
10
Artificial Intelligence New communication channels
• Artificial Intelligence’s - we will Actroid 1
Interactive billboard
interact with them just like humans.
• e-technology will have advanced to
the point where there are fewer
human interactions with a more
strategic focus and broader
capabilities
• Face recognition that identifies
emotional changes.
24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available
24 x 7 x 36 availability
Global Futures All around the world at the same time Global Futures
Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394 & Foresight & Foresight
Summary
1. Attitude to risk
2. Drivers of change
3. Strategic Capability
4. Product/Service Innovation
“If things seem under control,
you’re just not going fast
enough.”
Mario Andretti
Global Futures Global Futures
& Foresight & Foresight
12. • Agree the top three drivers that could impact
you most?
Imagine it • Who would you extend your EXTERNAL
network to, to generate ideas for innovation?
If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead
• What’s your attitude to risk .and those
around you?
Thank you • Discuss what EXTERNAL stimuli you
david.smith@thegff.com
+44 7932 408901 engage with at the start of your strategic
www.thegff.com planning cycle?
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& Foresight & Foresight
