October 2011

Weichert, Princeton Office October 2011 Market Update/ Forecast Seminar Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective strategies to buy and sell.

Presented by: Joshua D Wilton Broker/ Sales Rep. Weichert Realtors Princeton, NJ (o) 609-921-1900 www.weichert-princeton.com www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton

Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years. Variance % 2010 to 2009 NY (Ashby) +13.11% CT (Doepper) +118.53% Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) + 5.86% Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +6.78% Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +9 .24% Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +10.63% Southern NJ (Williams) +10.87%

Affordability Index Source: NAR Housing Affordability Index 1971 to 2010 Definition: A measure of the financial ability of US Families to buy a house. 100 means that families earning the national median income have just the amount of money needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home. Higher than100 means they have more than enough. Lower than 100 means they have less than enough.

183.7 Aug 2011 Affordability Index

2011: State of the Market +8.29% 1 yr change ‘ 09 vs ‘11

Historically Low Interest Rates 2012: State of the Market

30 Year Fixed interest rate 3.94% Lowest in recorded history

So why is the market so tight…?

5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market. How Long Will Interest Rates Remain Low?

What will the future bring…?

A long term outlook in NJ & Mercer County ‘Supply & Demand’ Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast

NJ Housing Permits Source: Census In thousand units

NJ Housing Permits Source: Census RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS AUTHORIZED 2000-2008 COUNTY 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Atlantic County 1,625 1,685 2,020 2,285 2,075 2,002 1,893 1,136 794 15,515 Bergen County 2,847 1,784 1,771 1,289 2,142 2,972 2,164 2,957 1,311 19,237 Burlington County 2,775 2,184 2,359 1,805 1,516 1,475 2,784 1,037 976 16,911 Camden County 796 757 1,160 1,934 1,413 1,706 1,183 1,191 895 11,035 Cape May County 1,242 1,403 1,422 1,693 2,149 2,433 1,580 1,081 485 13,488 Cumberland County 255 256 310 374 566 630 737 683 336 4,147 Essex County 1,491 1,548 1,588 2,235 2,343 3,128 3,284 1,854 1,314 18,785 Gloucester County 1,337 1,635 1,802 1,859 2,050 2,075 1,141 920 788 13,607 Hudson County 1,338 1,116 1,534 2,116 3,808 4,498 4,275 3,081 3,229 24,995 Hunterdon County 616 685 602 814 648 506 350 316 206 4,743 Mercer County 1,283 1,355 1,428 1,188 1,641 1,296 847 700 625 10,363 Middlesex County 2,460 1,884 1,999 2,306 2,622 3,206 2,567 1,597 1,020 19,661 Monmouth County 2,912 2,194 2,372 2,756 2,628 2,584 2,820 2,060 1,526 21,852 Morris County 2,684 1,577 1,914 1,555 1,427 2,503 1,670 1,052 795 15,177 Ocean County 5,633 3,830 3,534 4,009 3,818 2,904 2,114 2,160 1,527 29,529 Passaic County 457 631 689 829 763 647 850 760 432 6,058 Salem County 161 180 170 307 334 297 298 148 198 2,093 Somerset County 2,282 1,439 1,530 1,260 1,362 1,220 1,058 926 791 11,868 Sussex County 719 808 679 587 612 668 603 360 302 5,338 Union County 776 551 681 1,198 1,399 1,278 1,593 1,123 673 9,272 Warren County 896 765 877 585 620 560 512 258 146 5,219 New Jersey 34,585 28,267 30,441 32,984 35,936 38,588 34,323 25,400 18,369 278,893

Long Term Supply … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Richardson Commercial

Long Term Demand … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf

Long Term Demand in Mercer County … Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast Source: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf (Mercer County) Population & Growth Population Annual Growth Rate 2013 Total Population 383,677 0.6% 2008 Total Population 371,963 0.7% 2000 Total Population 350,761

Affordability will Spur Recovery 2012: State of the Market

1. Real Estate is Local Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real Estate Market: 2. Real Estate is Local 3. Real Estate is Local 4. Real Estate is Local 5. Real Estate is Local

Mercer County SF Inventory 01-10 Trendmls.com

Mercer County SF Settled Units 01-10 Trendmls.com

2010 v 2011 Market Comparison Town 2011 Listed 2011 Sold 2010 Listed 2010 Sold 2011 DOM 2010 DOM 2011 Sold $ 2010 Sold $ 2011 Avg. $ 2010 Avg. $ Pton Twp. 306 142 290 135 100 95 $134K $119K $950K $889K Pton Boro 121 50 115 51 887 117 $42K $48K $842K $942K West Windsor 382 224 469 264 72 57 $116K $140K $521K $532K Lawrence 429 192 495 242 97 87 $59K $81K $310K $335K Hope-well 296 119 350 146 111 115 $54K $73K $460K $504K Ewing 513 168 575 210 116 94 $29K $44K $178K $211K East Windsor 400 119 411 156 118 96 $30K $40K $252K $260K Plains-boro 285 147 298 169 82 60 $56K $70K $319K $329K

1. You Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into or Selling out of… -Inventory - Location - Sales Patterns - Neighborhood, Location - Style of Home, Beds, Baths, etc

Market Absorption Scale (Absorption Rate in Months) 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

Absorption Rate by Price Range Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually .

Sample Market Absorption Rate 107 current active listings 4 reported sales in last 30 days = 24.3 months absorption rate Anytown., NJ 5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.

Market Scale for Supply & Demand High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High Demand Normal Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values. As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually. Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months. Market Absorption in Months 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Normal

2007 thru 2011 Market Activity Comparison: Week of 10/22 2007 Active Inventory 2007 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2008 Active Inventory 2008 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2009 Active Inventory 2009 Pending Sales (prev 30 days) 2010 Active Inventory 2010 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) 2011 Active Inventory 2011 Pending Sales (prev. 30 days) Pton. Boro 52 3 42 3 44 7 46 2 44 7 Pton Twp 118 5 100 3 122 11 134 9 158 3 W. Windsor 151 21 108 9 104 28 127 14 107 15 Lawrence 235 9 196 10 197 30 207 15 195 10 East Windsor 214 11 200 15 164 35 225 7 225 7 Ewing 277 14 259 6 243 35 289 11 290 14 Hamilton 596 37 594 36 534 107 639 40 640 49 Hopewell Twp. 186 5 125 5 153 24 159 3 169 5 Cranbury 31 0 30 1 34 1 20 0 23 0 Plainsboro 122 16 101 6 59 11 81 10 95 6 South Brunswick 202 16 211 16 164 18 259 13 258 13 Montgomery 137 16 117 12 128 23 159 13 139 20

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Princeton Boro: All Styles 44 7 6.3 11 4 17 38.6% 0 3 5 Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 20 3 6.7 6 3 8 40% 0 2 2 Pton-Boro Single Family 24 4 6 5 1 9 37.5% 0 1 3 Pton Twp: All Styles 158 6 26.3 21 15 29 18.4% 5 6 13 Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 24 1 24 5 4 4 16.7% 0 0 3 Pton Twp: Single Family 134 5 26.8 16 11 25 18.7% 5 6 10

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Li1stings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings West Windsor: All Styles 107 15 7.1 21 6 37 34.6% 7 8 21 West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses 21 2 10.5 7 5 3 14.3% 0 1 6 West Windsor 55+ 14 1 14 6 5 -- -- 0 0 1 West Windsor Single Family 72 12 6 8 -4 34 47.2% 7 7 14 Lawrence: All Styles 195 10 19.5 30 20 51 26.2% 17 5 12 Lawrence: Condo/ THouses 58 4 14.5 5 1 22 38.4% 6 2 2 Lawrence: 55+ 19 0 99 2 2 -- -- 1 0 1 Lawrence: Single Family 118 6 19.7 23 17 29 25.6% 10 3 9

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings PlainsboroAll Styles 95 6 16 20 14 28 29% 19 0 10 Plainsboro Condo/ THouses 56 3 18.66 11 8 17 30% 12 0 6 Plainsboro 55+ 14 1 14 2 1 2 14% 1 0 3 Plainsboro Single Family 25 2 12.5 6 4 9 36% 6 0 1 Cranbury: All Styles 23 0 99 1 1 7 30% 4 0 3

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Ewing: All Styles 290 14 20.7 37 23 64 22% 14 9 23 Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses 36 2 18 6 4 8 22% 3 4 5 Ewing 55+: 11 1 11 2 1 --- --- 0 0 1 Ewing: Single Family 243 11 22.1 29 18 56 23% 11 5 17 East Windsor: All Styles 225 7 32.1 34 27 42 19% 23 12 15 East Windsor: Condo/ Thouses 132 1 132 18 17 23 17% 17 7 6 East Windsor: 55+ 14 0 999 3 3 --- --- 0 0 0 East Windsor: Single Family 79 6 13.2 13 7 19 24% 6 5 9

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Hopewell Twp. All Styles 169 5 34 27 22 35 21% 6 8 13 Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses 14 2 7 3 1 4 28.5% 0 0 4 Hopewell Twp.: 55+ 6 0 0 0 0 -- -- 1 1 1 Hopewell Twp Single Family 149 3 50 24 21 31 21% 5 7 8 Hamilton: All Styles 640 49 13 107 58 157 24.5% 42 20 58 Hamilton: Condo/ THouses 98 7 14 19 12 20 20% 11 5 6 Hamilton: 55+ 45 4 11 9 5 -- -- 2 2 3 Hamilton: Single Family 497 38 13 80 42 137 27.5% 29 13 49

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Robbinsville All Styles 139 19 7 22 3 38 27% 11 8 13 Robbinsville Condo/ T.Houses 57 11 5 8 (3) 19 33% 4 5 5 Single Family 82 8 10 14 6 19 23% 7 3 7 Hightstown Boro: All Styles 69 3 23 9 6 16 23% 12 1 6 Pennington 18 3 6 3 0 5 27% 1 1 3 Hopewell Boro 13 1 13 2 1 3 23% 1 0 2

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings South Brunswick All Styles 285 13 22 44 31 66 23 33 4 25 South BrunswickCondo/ T.Houses 88 6 14.7 13 7 26 30 12 2 4 South Brunswick 55+ 34 1 34 2 1 5 15 2 1 5 South Brunswick Single Family 163 6 27 29 23 35 21 19 1 16 Monroe: All Styles 504 8 63 89 81 86 17 6 62 54 Monroe: 55+ 312 5 62.4 67 62 54 17.3 3 29 48 Monroe: Single Family 192 3 64 22 19 32 17 3 33 6

10/18/11 Towns Active Listings Pending in Last 30 Days Absorption Rate in Months New Listings in 30 Days Net Gain (Loss) to Market Listings Reduced in 30 Days % of Invent. Reduced Expired Listings W/drawn Listings Closed Listings Montgomery All Styles 139 20 6.9 25 +5 26 19% 14 7 13 Montgomery Condo/Twnhms 26 5 5.2 6 +1 1 4% 3 0 2 Single Family 113 15 7.5 19 +4 25 22% 11 7 11 Hillsborough All Styles 288 24 12 51 +27 63 22% 28 9 33 Hillsborough Condo/Twnhms 106 10 10.6 22 +12 27 22% 13 7 11 Hillsborough Single Family 182 14 13 29 +15 36 20% 15 2 22

Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in… I want to live/ sell in West Windsor…..

West Windsor Colonials By Price 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market. Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate $300-$500 17 3 5.6 500-$650 12 3 4 $650-$799 14 4 3.5 $800-$999 6 0 99 $1 million + 2 1 2

Princeton Twp. Single Fam. by Price Alone 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market. Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate $400-$600 16 1 16 $600-$799 19 2 9.5 $1.0 – 1.35 14 2 7 $1.36-$1.65 16 0 99 $1.65-$2.0 10 0 99

Princeton Twp. Single Fam. by Price Alone 5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market. Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate $2.0 - $3.0 9 1 9 $3.0-$5.0 15 0 99 $5.0+ 3 0 99

Buying/ Selling Strategies Source: MLS

‘ I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’

Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year -3% $319,130 2nd Year 0% $319,130 3rd Year 1% $322,321 4th Year 3% $331,990 5th Year 5% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500 Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $44,200 Create Equity v Pay Rent

Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400 Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802 Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value 1st Year 5 $319,130 2nd Year 3% $319,130 3rd Year 2% $322,321 4th Year 2% $331,990 5th Year 2% $348,590 5 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $48,590 Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @ $1600/mo 1st Year $5,000 $19,200 2nd Year $5,000 $19,200 3rd Year $5,000 $19,200 4th Year $5,000 $19,200 5th Year $5,000 $19,200 5 Year Total $25,000 $96,000 Total Gain $73,529 Create Equity v Pay Rent

+ The Amortization Schedule on a Loan Yearly Schedule of Balances and Payments Year Beginning Balance Payment Principal Interest Cumulative Principal Cumulative Interest Ending Balance 2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72 $311,272.00 2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34 $306,650.70 2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28 $301,768.72 2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84 $296,611.36 2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48 $291,163.08

Appreciation (conservitive): $19,500 + Amortization: $20,109 + Tax Benefit of Home Ownership $25,000 + Low Interest Rates: $5000 ___________________ total 5 year gain = $69,609

[object Object],How Long Will Interest Rates Remain Low?

1. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’ Source: MLS

Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2010

Source: MLS Inventory Levels, Princeton Twp. New Jersey, 2010

3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down further and then make an offer/ if I lower my price I will get lower bids…? Source: MLS

Don’t Wait West Windsor: 75% Homes currently Under Contract: 32 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 24 East Windsor: 76% Homes currently Under Contract: 21 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 16

Don’t Wait Plainsboro: 95% Homes currently Under Contract: 21 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 20

It’s About Price Sellers, if your listing hasn’t gone under contract in the last 30 days and the price is not adjusted it will not go under contract in the next 30. If the home your buyer wants has not had a price adjustment in the last 30 days it is the perfect time to go face to face with the seller to negotiate!

Jeff Smith, Loan Officer Weichert Financial Services Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Ownership.

Pop Quiz… If you take out a $200,000 30 year fixed payment loan from the bank, what is your monthly payment? A. $1901. B. $1640. C. $1201. D. $969.

[object Object],1 Source: Freddie Mac 2 As reported in the Washington Post 12/26/09 3 As reported on CNBC 12/22/09 How Long Will Interest Rates Remain Low?

Monthly Payment Savings ,[object Object],Monthly payments are based on interest rates of 5.5% on 9/13/2009 vs. 4.25% on 9/13/2010. One Year Ago Today Mortgage Amount $300,000 $300,000 Monthly Payment (P&I) $1,704 $1,476 Savings $228/month

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The interest rate assumption is based on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. $252 difference per month for 30 years The Opportunity in 2011

[object Object],Establish Your Buying Power

The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…

All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control . Home Staging Who is in control?

It’s About Price West Windsor: 79% Homes currently Under Contract: 33 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 26 East Windsor: 77% Homes currently Under Contract: 31 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 24

It’s About Price Plainsboro: 100% Homes currently Under Contract: 14 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 14 (7/7) Robbinsville: 70% Homes currently Under Contract: 13 Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market : 9

It’s About Price If your listing hasn’t gone under contract in the last 30 days and the price is not adjusted it will not go under contract in the next 30.

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as part of yours… Source: MLS

Princeton Twp. 2010 The Price Trend Came up with a price of $850,000. I recommended a price of $799,000.

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price as yours… Listed at $799,000. 5 offers, sold at $942,000. The seller had control.

One Aim Determining your best asking price. Our unique method goes beyond the traditional assessment of comparable home prices by anticipating changing marketing conditions in your area.

Princeton Sold Homes, 2010 Days on Market

List to Sales Price Ratio 2010

2 . The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Home .

What Is Home Staging ? The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of Price, Location, or Condition To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time. The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS .

Non-Staged The Way You Live In Your Home…

… And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things. Staged

“ The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your First Price Reduction!”

Non-Staged Buyers Only Know What They See …

… Not The Way It Is Going To Be. Staged

Home Staging *Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007. “ The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”

Home Staging *Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007. The average increase in sales price of an ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9% . That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000 sale. “ The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”

What is ‘ Pre-Inspection?’

Pre-Inspection WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection. Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26% Fall Thru Percentage 2010: 10% .

Home Improvements I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move. Or I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.

Weichert Family of Companies What will a real estate company do for me?

Making Your Purchase as Smooth as Possible Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people. Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother and easier.

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Become a Fan! www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton www.weichert-princeton.com We post a ton of great market data on these two sites.

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October 2011

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