9. t = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
A
B
C
8
Connectivityover space
= 3/8 time periods or 37.5%
Continuity over time
= 6/8 time
periods or 75%
= 5/8 or 62.5%
= 4/8 or 50%
11. • More frequent and
earlier stream drying
in 2011 compared to
2010
– 30% decreased continuity
– 3.8 m earlier (9 d – 7 m)
• Earlier stream drying
correspond to either
the upper portions of
the headwaters or
the approximate base
of the mountain front
underlain by granitic
geology
2010 (average precipitation) vs. 2011 (dry)
Month
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Difference in Precipitation, mm
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aerostat 2010
Aerostat 2011
15. Climate change predictions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mean Daily Precipitation (mm)
2001‐2010 2082‐2091 Sierra Vista, AZ
Decrease
during onset
and peak
monsoon
period
Increase
during
early
winter
Damped intra‐annual
variability
* GFDL CM2.1 GCM, A2 greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario, spatially downscaled daily time‐step
16. Garden Canyon
River Km Station
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Garden Canyon: Mean Daily Discharge (2082 - 2091)
River Km Station
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1e-04
0.001
0.01
0.1
0.5
1
cms
Downstream
Present Day (2001‐2010)
Future (2082‐2091)
no flow
Upstream
Mean
daily Q
Discharge
R=0.51 (P<0.01)
Permanence
R=0.42 (P<0.01)
17. Brown Canyon
River Km Station
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Brown Canyon: Mean Daily Discharge (2082 - 2091)
River Km Station
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Downstream Upstream
Present Day (2001‐2010)
Future (2082‐2091)
1e-04
0.001
0.01
0.1
0.5
cms
no flow
Mean
daily Q
18. ‐50
0
50
100
150
200
Overall Winter Spring Summer
Change (%)
Garden Brown Tinker McClure
‐50
‐25
0
25
50
75
100
Overall Winter Spring Summer
Change (%)
Garden Canyon
Brown Canyon
Tinker Canyon
McClure Canyon
Ü0 1 2 3 40.5
Kilometers
ByStation.ContinuityMetricDifferences
zfd_diff
Increase by 46 - 60 Days
Increase by 60 - 90 Days
Increase by 90 - 120 Days
Increase by 120 - 152 Days
Change in Zero Flow Days
Duration of Zero Flow Periods
Number of Zero Flow Periods