Antifragility clean conference-2013

James Lawley, Antifragility, Clean Conference 2013
Clean Conference 2013
!
Antifragility,
Black Swans
and
Befriending
Uncertainty
!
James Lawley
1

Presentation Preamble
!
David Grove was a master of seizing the moment, turning a slip into an opportunity, the mundane into the sacred, the bizarre into
the extraordinary, the idiosyncratic into the optimal. How? By being antifragile. It didn't matter what the client said or did David
made use of it in their best interest. He loved ambiguity, mis-hearings, puns, non sequiturs and synchronicity. David facilitated
from 'the edge of chaos’ – that thin strip of existence between order and randomness where life and creativity thrive.
!
After David Grove died in 2008, the person who has most influenced Penny Tompkins and my thinking is Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
His first book, Fooled By Randomness exposed the challenge we have understanding the effects of chance. He followed this with
The Black Swan, which showed why large-scale but rare and unpredictable events have a much greater effect than all the small,
common and predictable events put together. Taleb's most recent book, Antifragile, goes further. It explores how it is possible to
be more than resilient, to make non-predictive decisions under uncertainty, and to relate to the unknown without attempting to
understand or control it.
!
Learning by avoiding mistakes is fragile. Learning by trial and error is robust. Learning by trial and feedback is antifragile.
!
But what does this have to Symbolic Modelling and other clean approaches? Just about everything. As facilitators we have to
make many quick decisions. Decisions based on top-down theoretical methodologies are fragile. Decisions that use experience-
based heuristics are robust. And there is an antifragile class of bottom-up decision making that relies on serendipity, mistakes,
the unexpected, and stochastic tinkering. My metaphor for this is it's like surfing blind.
!
And Taleb's ideas are not just useful to facilitators. I think you will see they have much to say about everyday life as well.
!
If you would like some preparatory reading, Taleb has kindly made the prologue of his new book available as a free download:
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/prologue.pdf
2

Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes ﬁre.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos:
you want to use them, not hide from them.
!
You want to be the ﬁre and wish for the wind.
Taleb, Antifragile, p.3
3

James Lawley, Antifragility, Clean Conference 2013 4

There is no word for
the exact opposite of
fragile.
!
Let us call it
antifragile.
5

Antifragility and fragility
are degrees on a spectrum.
!
FRAGILE ---- ROBUST --- ANTIFRAGILE
6

Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness.
!
The resilient resists shocks
and stays the same;
!
the antifragile gets better.
7

Anatomy of Fragile - Robust - Antifragile Systems
8

Example of a Fragile Bank
9

Post traumatic growth - the opposite of PTSD.
!
Those from whom we have beneﬁtted the most
aren’t those who have tried to help us
(say with “advice”)
but rather those who have actively tried
– but eventually failed – to harm us
10

Antifragile headline message to Malaysian
government in online newspaper, Nutgraph:
!
“You do your worst. We’ll do our best.”
Dr. Soong Kua
!
Lawley, 2013
11

The antifragile loves
randomness and uncertainty,
!
which also means – crucially –
a love of a certain class of errors.
12

Fragility and antifragility
are part of the current property
of an object [or] system.
!
[i.e. the capacity to respond
to unspeciﬁed future events.]
13

Antifragility has a singular property
of allowing us to deal with the unknown,
to do things without understanding them –
and to do them well.
14

[Antifragility is needed]
anywhere the unknown preponderates,
any situation in which there is randomness,
unpredictability, opacity,
or incomplete understanding of things.
15

By grasping the mechanisms of antigratility we
can build a systematic and broad guide to
nonpredictive decision making
under uncertainty.
16

The fragile wants tranquility.
!
The antifragile grows from disorder,
!
the robust doesn’t care too much..
17

It is far easier to ﬁgure out
if something is fragile
than to predict the occurrence
of an event that may harm it.
18

Fragility can be measured;
!
risk is not measurable.
19

When it comes to random events,
“robust” is certainly not good enough.
!
we need a mechanism by which a system
regenerates itself continuously
by using, rather than suffering from,
random events, unpredictable shocks,
stressors, and volatility.
20

Black Swans
are large-scale unpredictable
and irregular events
of massive consequence.
21

Most of history
comes from Black Swan events,
!
while we worry about ﬁne-tuning
our understanding of the ordinary.
22

Black Swans hijack our brains,
because they are retrospectively explainable.
!
We don’t realize the role of Swans
because of this illusion of predictability.
23

Robust or resilient
is neither harmed nor helped
by volatility and disorder,
!
while the antifragile beneﬁts from them.
!
24

Ovid [said]
difﬁculty is what wakes up the genius.
!
25

Antifragility is the property of all those natural
(and complex) systems that have survived,
!
depriving these systems of the volatility,
randomness, and stressors will harm them.
!
They will weaken, die, or blow up.
26

Much of our modern, structured, world
has been harming us with
top-down policies and contraptions
!
– an insult to the antifragility of systems.
27

Everything top-down
fragilizes and blocks antifragility and growth,
!
everything bottom-up
thrives under the right amount
of stress and disorder.
28

Taleb, Antifragile, pp.23-27
Fragile Robust Antifragile
Systems Efﬁciency, optimized
Component
Redundancy
Functional Redundancy
Regulation Rules Principles Virtue
Knowledge Academia Expertise Erudition
Science Theory Phenomenology
Evidenced-based
phenomenology
Research Directed research
Opportunistic
research
Stochastic tinkering
Errors
Hates mistakes. Large,
rare errors => blowups
Mistakes are just
information
Loves reversible,
small errors.
Black Swan
Exposed to negative
Black Swans
Exposed to +ve Black
Swans - maximizes
serendipity.
29

Taleb, Antifragile, pp.23-27
Fragile Robust Antifragile
General Large Small but specialized Small but not specialized
Ethics No skin in the game Skin in the game Soul in the game
Human body
Molliﬁcation,
atrophy
Recovery Hormesis
Human
relationships
Friendship Kinship Attraction
Psychology
Post-traumatic
stress
Post-traumatic growth
Economic life
Bureaucrat.
Academic.
Corporate
executive. Politician.
Owner occupier.
Truck driver.
Postal employee.
Entrepreneur.
Taxi driver.
Artist. Writer.
30

The process of discovery
(or innovation, or technological progress)
itself depends on antifragile tinkering,
rather than formal education.
31

Complex systems are full of
hard to detect interdependencies –
and nonlinear responses.
!
“Nonlinear”
means simple causal associations
are misplaced
32

“Sadly, there are no effective methods for
solving general nonlinear problems.
!
Even simple looking problems with a few
variables can be extremely challenging.”
Convex Optimization, Stephen Boyd, Lieven Vandenberghe p.11
33

However,
“There are some simple heuristics, based on
convex optimization,
that often ﬁnds fairly sparse solutions.”
34

First find a general solution using
“global optimization” -
that may be non-optimal but it creates a
starting point for a “local optimisation”.
i.e. get in the right ballpark first and then
workout how to find your seat.
Be prepared to compromise efficiency to
maximise effectiveness.
i.e. hold back from fully solving the problem.
35

A complex system
does not require complicated systems
and regulations and intricate policies.
The simpler, the better.
Complications [and interventions] lead to
multiplicative chains of unanticipated effects.
!
Less is more and usually more effective.
36

PRINCIPLE:
Complex systems are not understandable.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Avoid interfering with what
you don’t understand.
37

PRINCIPLE:
Complex systems are not understandable.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Avoid theories, in the absence of
local evidence use tried & tested heuristics.
38

PRINCIPLE:
There is always enough happening.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
You don’t need to add anything
39

PRINCIPLE:
There is always enough happening.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
You don’t need to make anything happen.
40

PRINCIPLE:
In complex systems,
“causes” are usually impossible to isolate
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Pay attention to the pattern in the signs
41

PRINCIPLE:
People & Systems are complex enough
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Make minimal interventions
42

PRINCIPLE:
People & Systems are complex enough
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Keep your interventions simple.
43

PRINCIPLE:
Top-down interventions fragilize
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Use bottom-up approaches
44

PRINCIPLE:
Complex systems are not predictable.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Use nonpredictive decision-making.
45

PRINCIPLE:
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Use stochastic tinkering
(Iterative trial and feedback)
46

PRINCIPLE:
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Maximise serendipity.
47

PRINCIPLE:
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Develop a ‘nose’ for potential change.
48

PRINCIPLE:
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Don’t try –
Utilise opportunities resulting
from ‘errors’ and ‘mistakes’.
49

PRINCIPLE:
Fixed goals and plans fragilize.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Cultivate conditions
and respond to what happens.
50

PRINCIPLE:
Fixed goals and plans fragilize.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Work with dynamic reference points.
51

PRINCIPLE:
Randomness happens randomly.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Utilse, utilise, utilse variation.
52

PRINCIPLE:
Randomness happens randomly.
Lawley, 2013
PRACTICE:
Utilse surprise.
53

Simplicity is not so simple to attain.
!
Steve Jobs ﬁgured out that
“you have to work hard to get your thinking
clean and to make it simple”.
54

Symbolic Modelling involves working with
emergent properties, fuzzy categories,
apparently illogical causal relations, multiple
levels of simultaneous and systemic processes,
iterative cycles and unexpected twists and
turns. In short, especially during the early
stages, the client’s information is intrinsically
unpredictable and messy.
Lawley & Tompkins, Metaphors in Mind, p.46
55

FACILITATORS NEED TO OPERATE FROM
A STATE OF ‘NOT KNOWING’
Lawley & Tompkins, Metaphors in Mind, p.45
56

While clients always have
the capacity to change and evolve,
when, how and why
a particular Metaphor Landscape reorganises
is inherently indeterminate.
Lawley & Tompkins, Metaphors in Mind, p.45-46
57

IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP?
Lawley
Fragile
No desire
for change
Problem
Robust
Desire to
return to
‘normal’
Remedy
Antifragile
Desire to
create
something new
Outcome
58

Novice
Expert
Competent
Proficient
Beginner
Rule-based
Techniques
Top-down
Modelling
Bottom-up
Modelling
The Dreyfus and Dreyfus ‘Novice to Expert’ Model
Lawley, 2006
59

[There is often a] tradeoff between
the antifragility of the collective
and the fragility of the individual.
!
[i.e. between the symbol and the landscape]
60

Antifragilizing Groups - I
!
Recruit people who:
- Have a track record
- Encourage others
- Like experimenting & feedback
- Are cross-domain thinkers
- Are open to learn this approach
Lawley, 2013
61

Antifragilizing Groups - II
!
Cultivate conditions that:
- Maximise serendioity
- Foster the following of hunches
- Encourage small failures
- Increase connectivity of diverse thinkers
- Apply to all levels of organisation
- Apply code congruency
Lawley, 2013
62

A Model for Maxising Serendipity
Lawley, 2008
63
E+1
Recognise
Potential
E
Unexpected
Event
E-1
Prepared
Mind
E+2
Seize the
Moment
E+3
Amplify
Effects
E+4
Evaluate
Effects
Iterative circularity

Layers of redundancy are the central risk
management property of natural systems
!
Redundancy is ambiguous because it seems
like a waste if nothing happens.
!
Except that something unusual happens –
usually.
Taleb, Antifragile, p.44 & 45
64

To dare to look our ignorance in the face
and be aggressively and proudly human
may require some structural changes.
65

Antifragility clean conference-2013

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