Denton County Real Estate Roundup Jan 2010
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Market analysis and statistics for January 2010 New Listings, Pendings and Sold properties in Denton County Texas
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Denton County Real Estate Roundup Jan 2010
- 1. January 2010 Jay Myers – REALTOR® Keller Williams Realty –Dallas Metro North Flower Mound, TX Website: www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com email: jay@jaymyers.net Cell: (972) 510-7800 Serving North Texas Buyers, Sellers and Investors Specializing in Denton County
- 2. REAL ESTATE STATISTICS ANALYSIS AND TRENDS FOR DENTON COUNTY TEXAS The following statistics are gathered from the North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) the information herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This analysis is based solely on: Single Family Residences Resale or Pre-Owned homes Denton County Based on a 1 or 2 Year Analysis It Does NOT Include • New Construction • Condominiums • Farms and Ranches • Vacant Land All interpretation and commentary is that of Jay Myers and not necessarily shared by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) the Texas Association of REALTORS® or my brokerage Keller Williams Realty. Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 3. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 415 553 636 665 841 843 864 800 649 532 403 479 2009 285 430 528 574 684 821 878 708 639 692 583 495 2010 275 Average SOLD Properties by Month Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 4. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 157,400 159,000 170,500 160,000 168,000 170,000 171,850 184,450 169,400 165,872 157,000 165,000 2009 150,000 161,000 160,126 160,500 171,400 172,500 175,000 175,625 167,250 165,500 162,500 165,900 2010 166,000 Median Price for SOLD Properties by Month Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 5. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 77 73 70 66 62 62 60 60 69 67 68 70 2009 72 76 71 67 65 60 67 68 61 66 70 78 2010 73 Average Days on Market for SOLD Properties Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 6. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Homes For Sale vs. SOLD 4069 units Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 7. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Average Days on Market Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 8. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 581 661 671 803 842 817 826 676 539 453 404 361 2009 451 526 608 734 772 833 779 671 675 685 434 364 2010 456 Units Under Contract by Month Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 9. 145,000 150,000 155,000 160,000 165,000 170,000 175,000 180,000 185,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 169,000 168,000 167,400 169,900 172,250 173,000 184,900 173,200 174,500 159,900 160,200 159,900 2009 162,900 165,900 168,950 175,000 174,500 179,190 174,900 175,000 169,900 165,000 167,250 172,500 2010 169,900 Median Under Contract Price Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 10. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 73 71 63 64 62 58 63 65 70 66 71 72 2009 71 74 64 66 62 67 66 68 64 69 80 82 2010 68 Average Days on Market Under Contract Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 11. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 1,194 1,206 1,274 1,419 1,364 1,389 1,233 1,140 957 903 766 675 2009 1,023 1,013 1,279 1,301 1,209 1,330 1,266 1,191 1,047 969 755 638 2010 1,190 New Listings by Month Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 12. 155,000 160,000 165,000 170,000 175,000 180,000 185,000 190,000 195,000 200,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 179,900 179,900 184,900 189,900 194,155 189,900 192,500 187,650 179,900 174,939 184,945 170,500 2009 188,000 199,500 197,900 192,500 199,900 198,250 189,000 189,900 184,900 185,000 189,900 174,500 2010 184,964 Median Price for New Listings Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 13. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 4,380 4,519 4,668 4,985 5,085 5,172 5,115 4,927 4,654 4,506 4,199 3,950 2009 4,026 4,125 4,518 4,791 4,878 5,014 4,985 4,904 4,724 4,520 4,036 3,779 2010 4,069 Number of Active For Sale Properties Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 14. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 180,000 184,900 189,900 194,900 199,900 200,000 207,000 205,000 199,974 199,900 199,900 199,000 2009 197,250 199,900 209,000 209,900 217,664 219,900 219,900 216,950 215,000 218,450 224,900 219,900 2010 209,488 Median Price for Actively Listed Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 15. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 172 168 164 159 157 159 165 172 178 182 188 191 2009 183 178 170 164 160 157 156 153 150 148 148 140 2010 108 Average DOM for Actively Listed Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 16. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 486 463 431 461 460 473 502 554 512 620 520 586 2009 463 360 420 394 416 462 493 556 498 554 461 536 2010 486 Expired Listings by Month Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 17. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Supply and Demand Month Active Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com
- 18. Jay Myers (972) 510-7800 www.MyDentonCountyRealEstate.com IN CLOSING: With only a 1% increase in active for sale properties from 2008. The Median Sold Price up over 5% for the past 12 months. The end of the $8,000 First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit. The end of the $6,500 Homeowners Tax Credit The infamous double-dip effect with the looming of new foreclosures and short-sale to flood the market. It is my opinion that by May of 2010 we will see prices once again begin to fall, possibly as much as 2 - 3%. I am not saying you should wait to buy, if you are a first timer the $8,000 is too great of a opportunity to pass up. You should be actively looking at homes, but I think the pickings are thin right now in Lewisville and Corinth 2 of my favorite first timer communities. But Little Elm is still hot, and still eligible for the USDA Guaranteed Loan program. But I am also one of the few agents out there that says if you are not ready to buy due to financing, job security, relationship issues or perhaps having to settle for a house that may not be just right for you - it may be advantageous to wait. But you should not wait too long, if the "experts" are right we should start seeing interest rates rise by June or July, and would not be surprised to see them as high as 7% by this time next year.
Notas do Editor
- Hello everyone and thank you for taking the time to view the Denton County Real Estate Roundup January 2010. My name is Jay Myers I am a REALTOR with Keller Williams Realty in Flower Mound Texas. I specialize in serving all of Denton County and the fringes of Tarrant County. I am also a certified Texas Affordable Housing Specialist a member of the National, Texas and Greater Lewisville Association of REALTORS You can reach me via my website at My Denton County Real Estate dot com, by email at jay@jaymyers.net or please do not hesitate to call me at 972-510-7800 between the hours of 9am to 9pm 7 days a week. On my website you can find lots of information concerning USDA Loan Programs, Texas Veterans Land Board, FHA guidelines and many other real estate related topic. You can also use a map based MLS search if you are interested checking in on some of the homes we will discuss here.
- The statistics and trends laid out here are based on information pulled from the North Texas Real Information Systems or NTREIS MLS. I am using all single family pre pre-owned homes in Denton county from the last 1 or 2 years. These statistics are not based on new construction or custom built homes, condominium's, farms, ranches or vacant land. I also want to point out the views and opinions are that of my own and MAY NOT be shared by associations or my brokerage Keller Williams Realty. Always keep in mind to get accurate trending statistics it is best to use information from the previous years in the same month, not the previous month, we will leave that to the media who does not know any better. When pertinent I will occasionally bring up the previous month. Let's get started…
- Properties sold in January 2010 was pretty much right on par with Jan 2009. We had 275 homes sold or close escrow. That is only 3.5% down from the previous year, but notice it is a dramatic 34% decrease from 2008.
- The median price of those homes sold in January was $166,000 this is a 5% increase from the same month on 2008 and almost 11% more than 2009. Keep in mind 135 more properties closed in 2008 than 2010 and we only had 5% increase in median price. This is really a reflection of the pent up demand in the past year that has driven prices up.
- Here we see the average days on the market for those sold properties. Nothing shocking here to point out, no dramatic changes from previous years or even the months leading up to January.
- Homes FOR SALE versus Homes SOLD. We can really see in this graph that the inventory is there for the purchasing but perhaps the pricing is off. There were 4069 properties for sale and only 275 sales. Although this # is barely off from last year at the same time you would expect with the November announcement of the tax credit remaining in effect would lead to more of these properties (if priced right) may have been sold.
- The average days on the market for a sold property was 73 days and as we already said this is pretty much par. But those remaining on the market are now up to 108 days, this is a decrease of 40% or 75 days less from last year in January. This is great...or is it. More on this when we get to active listings.
- Units that went under contract in January are on target from the previous year. We expect to see these kind of trending #'s. The number that jumps out to me here is October 2009, compared to October 2008. 232 more properties under contract. Pretty obvious there that many more buyers, most likely first timers were trying to get homes under contract and closed by the expected first time homebuyers tax credit deadline date of November 30th.
- The median price of properties that went under contract or pending are almost dead on at $169,900 to those that SOLD in January. Also notice October 2009 again, it was the only month last year we saw prices decrease of more than $1000 from the previous month. Could this be sellers anticipating the tax credit ending, or just the end of the buying season? Be sure to stick around till the end when I give my commentary on where I believe the market is heading.
- Those properties that went under contract in January 2010 averaged only 68 days on the market. Nothing shocking here from previous years, but perhaps interesting such a sharp decrease from December compared to this time last year.
- Now we are getting to the good stuff for buyers. In January there were 1,190 new homes listed in the MLS. I have to admit I am surprised by this number because I sure am not seeing them. I believe this is because at this time most of my client buyers are first time home buyers, and typically their price range in Denton County is in the $125K - $150K range. On the next slide we will discuss the median price, but I did not pull the stats for the price ranges of the new listings for this roundup, but check out my site mydentoncountyrealestate.com and by the time this is posted I will have followed up on this.
- This slide shows us some bad news for both buyers and sellers. First for Buyers if this median price of $184,964 is correct, and the median price for under contract and sold for January was between $166,00 and $169,900 you are potentially paying more than $10K for possibly a similar house then you would have last month - something is way off. The market does not justify this great of increase in price. Buyers should not fret, I believe it is the sellers or their agents who should reevaluate. One of favorite responses, or things I point out to nearly every seller or buyer is "I Don’t set the price, You Don't Set the price, the Market always sets the price" If it is priced too high buyers will not come, or if they do the appraisal will come back insufficient for a lender to give them a mortgage. If it is priced to low, and marketed properly a seller better hope they don't accept the first offer that comes in if it is under 2 weeks. Like I said stick around till the end when I project where we are heading.
- Once again pointing out we have 4069 single family homes on the market in Denton County and as I have already pointed out over 1,000 of them may be overpriced by as much as 5% or even 10%.
- Here we see out of all 4069 properties on the market the last day of January 2010 the median price is $209,488. This just endorses my point that we COULD have more than just newly listed homes that are overpriced. Please keep in mind, this is for all of Denton County, some of the higher priced areas such Flower Mound or Highland Village are expected to have longer days on the market, and can justifiably run the median price upwards. But we can also see if we look at Decembers median price we have gone down over $9500. Could some sellers be getting a clue?
- With all Actively listed properties we are only on average at 108 days on the market. This is great #, but a lot of this can reflect to this above average #'s for October and November of sold and pending properties, and this number is sure to increase by some properties being under contract at this time but will come back on the market from buyers walking away for various reason.
- Expired Listings in January did increase by 5% from 2009 at 486. These are properties that were on the market and were not sold in the amount of time the seller gave the agent to do so. Typically a listing agreement is for 120 - 180 days. This can mean their agent did not do their job of marketing the property by exposing it to as many buyers as possible or the sellers wanted too much for the property in it's current condition - still a matter of the agent not doing their job.
- If no new homes came on the market and at the current rate homes are going under contract and being sold there is a 7 month supply of homes on the market in Denton County.
- With only a 1% increase in active for sale properties from 2008. The Median Sold Price up over 5% for the past 12 months. The end of the $8,000 First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit. The end of the $6,500 Homeowners Tax Credit The infamous double-dip effect with the looming of new foreclosures and short-sale to flood the market. It is my opinion that by May of 2010 we will see prices once again begin to fall, possibly as much as 2 - 3% by the end of summer. I am not saying you should wait to buy, if you are a first timer the $8,000 is too great of a opportunity to pass up. You should be actively looking at homes, but I think the pickings are thin right now in Lewisville and Corinth 2 of my favorite first time buyer communities. But Little Elm is still hot, and still eligible for the USDA Guaranteed Loan program. But I am also one of the few agents out there that says if you are not ready to buy due to financing, job security, relationship issues or perhaps having to settle for a house that may not be just right for you - it may be advantageous to wait. But you should not wait too long, if the "experts" are right we should start seeing interest rates rise by June or July, and I would not be surprised to see them as high as 7% by this time next year. So wrapping this up - Now is just as important time as any to make sure you are working with an agent that is working for you, not just for their paycheck. If you are buying or selling real estate in Denton or Tarrant County please give me a call or visit my website. If you outside of my service area you should still give me a call! I can help you find an agent anywhere will actually work for you. Thank you for taking the time to watch or listen to this broadcast, and be sure to subscribe to my YouTube Channel or my website mydentoncountyrealestate.com via email or RSS to check out the articles I write on various real estate related topics or for the next Denton County Real Estate Roundup. Thanks again.