How has the U.S. solar industry fared in this economic downturn? Larry Sherwood shares the significant data from his highly regarded work, U.S. Solar Market Trends 2009, on where, how much and what types of solar technologies were installed and what we can expect in 2010.

1. U.S. Solar Market Data
Larry Sherwood
Sherwood Associates and IREC
IREC Annual Meeting
October 11, 2010

2. Scope of Presentation
•! Photovoltaic and Solar Thermal
–!Focus on Grid-Connected PV
•! United States Market
•! Data through 2009
•! Some projections for 2010

3. Grid-Connected
Photovoltaics

4. Cumulative U.S. Grid-tied
Photovoltaic Installations
2,500
2,000
1,500
MW-dc
1,000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P

5. Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installations

6. 2010 PV Installation Drivers
•! Federal incentives stable (but change at
the end of 2010)
•! RPS and utility ITC
•! Stimulus funds
•! Lower module prices

7. Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installations

8. Capacity of Annual U.S.
Grid-Tied PV Installs by Sector
Residential Non-Residential
300 300
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50
50
0
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
Utility
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P

9. Installations Larger than 10 MW
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P

10. U.S. PV Cost Trends
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
Residential
$4
Non-Residential
$3
$2
$1
$-
2007 2008 2009 2010 future
Based on California Solar Initiative data

11. Grid-Tied PV Capacity by State
(2009 Installations)

12. Cumulative Per Capita
Grid-Tied PV Installations
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
CA HI NJ NV CO AZ CT DE OR VT MA FL
W-dc per person

13. Number of Annual
Grid-Tied PV Installations

14. Concentrating Solar Power

15. Concentrating Solar Power

16. Concentrating Solar Power
80
70
60
50
MW
40
30
20
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P

17. Future for
Concentrating Solar Power
•!Thousands of MW Proposed
•!Several project will begin
construction in 2010
•!Southwest & Florida

18. Solar Heating and Cooling

19. Capacity of Annual U.S.
Solar Hot Water+ Installations

20. Solar Hot Water+ Capacity
by State
HI
Other
CA
AZ
FL PR
Based on analysis of EIA data for 2008

21. Future for Solar Hot Water
•!Continued but moderate growth
•!More state and local incentives
•!Markets in all regions - best in
areas with electric
hot water

22. Annual Solar Pool Heating
Installations

23. Annual Solar Pool Heating
Installations
Other
FL
AZ
CA
Based on analysis of EIA Data for 2008

24. Future for
Solar Pool Heating
•!Market tied to market for
swimming pools
•!Growth will require real estate
market recovery in Florida and
California

25. www.irecusa.org

26. Questions?