slides from November 12, 2012, the fourth and final session of the course Social Media and the U.S. Election. The course is taught by Janelle Ward and hosted by the John Adams Institute in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
1. Social Media and
the U.S. Election
janelle.ward@gmail.com
www.janelleward.com
@janelle_ward
2. Questions we’ve kept in mind
• How are political actors using social media to
inform and engage citizens?
• (Producing the campaign)
• How does social media influence
citizen/audience/consumer engagement?
• (Consuming the campaign)
• How important is (social) media campaigning
in determining the winner?
• What role does social media play in the election
campaign?
3. This week: aftermath!
1) The election
• (Daily Show recap)
2) The candidates
3) The research
• Does all this posting really make a
difference?
4) The future + broader applications
4. 1) The election
• Facebook Stories: reporting a vote on
Facebook
• U.S. Politics on Facebook: User results:
– The 2012 election received the highest score on the
Facebook Talk Meter this year among U.S. users,
weighing in at a 9.27 on a 10-point scale
– Younger Facebook users dominated the chatter
– Buzz around Election Day was just a touch higher for
men with a 9.39 compared to a 9.19 for women.
5. 1) The election
• U.S. Politics on Facebook: Candidate results:
• Obama scored a 8.41 -- a point higher than his highest
score from election season (a 7.41 from the first
presidential debate). Buzz about Obama was slightly higher
for men (8.56) than women (8.32) and the discussion
definitely trended higher with younger users.
• Romney scored a 7.83 -- nearly half a point higher than his
highest score from election season (a 7.38 from the first
presidential debate). Men were buzzing just a bit more
than women (8.06 vs. 7.66) and once again, the chatter
trended younger.
6. 1) The election
• There were 31 million tweets before the results, with
327,452 tweets-per-minute at peak. (source: Twitter blog)
• Before most polls closed, the hashtag "#election2012"
surpassed 11 million tweets. (source)
• The #stayinline hashtag spread to encourage those
in voting lines not to give up.
• As the results of the election were called, the conversation
surged, hitting a peak of 327,452 Tweets per minute (TPM)
(source: Twitter blog)
• Beyonce may have broken the law
photographing her ballot for Tumblr. (source)
7. 1) The election
• 250,000 photos tagged on Instagram
– 100,000 with the hashtag #Ivoted
– 150,000 with #election2012
– Some questions raised about the legality of posted images of
ballots
8. 1) The election
And yet…”Throughout the long
campaign season…the bulk of
the campaign spending was
going to TV stations …On
election night…at parties and
larger-scale gatherings, crowds
of people gathered around,
some watching Jumbotrons to
get results on major TV outlets,
while nobody gathered in
groups to read social-media
postings.”
CNN won the social media battle
10. 2) The candidates
• Obama smoked Romney in social networks
• Guinness World Records: Obama broke three
social media world records:
– Most widespread social network message in 24
hours
– Most likes on a Facebook item in 24 hours
– Most likes on a Facebook item ever (source)
12. 2) The candidates: Romney’s
Twitter disappearance
(+ losing Facebook likes)
In contrast,
Gary Johnson's
Post-Election Day Plan
13. The villains
• Why is it that even though there are no rules on Twitter, it st
• Racist tweets after Obama is reelected
14. 3) The research
• A study of four 2010 races (two for
Senate, two for Governor) by NM Incite
found that the most buzzed about
candidate won the seat - but in only
three out of four races. (quantity, not quality)
• In this study, buzz doesn’t appear to be
a driver of voter turnout.
15. 3) The research
• Recent research published by Nature: during
the 2010 congressional election campaign,
people were 0.39 percent more likely to vote
if they received Facebook messages telling
them that their friends had voted - that was
an additional 282,000 votes cast.
• The effect was strongest from closest (most
interacted with) friends.
17. 3) The research
• 2012: The Facebook bump (Matthew MacWilliams and Edward Erikson)
– “Eight out of nine Senate races considered to be
toss ups this year were won by the candidate
with the more engaged Facebook fan base.
– In six out of nine House open seat races, the
candidate with an engagement advantage won.
– In 11 of the 15 competitive House races where
incumbents lost on Tuesday, the challenger
enjoyed an engagement advantage over the
incumbent.”
18. 3) The research
• 2012: The Facebook bump (Matthew MacWilliams and Edward Erikson)
– “…initial analysis indicates that candidates, who
creatively embrace Facebook and the daily grind
of building and engaging an audience, will be
rewarded with a meaningful voting bump on
Election Day that makes their time spent on
social media well worth the effort.” (POLITICO)
20. 4) The future + broader
applications
• Numbers matter, but content is key, and
measurement is a mess
– “Follower count doesn't work because it doesn't
take engagement into account. Engagement
doesn't work because it doesn't take sentiment
into account. Sentiment doesn't work without
taking volume, engagement, geography, etc., into
account as well.
21. 4) The future + broader
applications
• In 2016?
– Will social media play a bigger role? How will it
change? Influence on negative campaigning?
– How will social media use change? More
grassroots? More or less control by campaigns?
Will more people mute politics chatter?
– How will this change with two new candidates?
In other political cultures?
22. Further readings
• Can social media predict election outcomes? (infographic)
• 9
concrete, specific things we actually know about how social m
elections
– E.g., “what remains special about social media is that
nonelite users control distribution…The huge effect
social media have in elections…is that they allow
nonelites to frame and distribute content made by
elites.”
• 8 Big Social Media Takeaways from the 2012 Election
Campaign