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Financial Intelligence
Knowing what the numbers really mean



Iyad Mourtada, CMA, CIA, CFE




                                       1
2
Why	
  do	
  smart	
  managers	
  
  make	
  bad	
  1inancial	
  
        decisions?


                                     3
Financial Intelligence   Emotional Intelligence

                                                  4
Neuron (nerve cell) is an electrically excitable
cell that processes and transmits information by
        electrical and chemical signaling.


                                         Obtain


                                         Process


                                          Store


                                         Connect



                                                    5
Financial Information


Gross
Margin = 22%




Operating
Margin = 7.5%




Net
Margin = 2.8%




 Financial                              Financial
Knowledge                               Numbers

                                                    6
The Continuum of Understanding           Know
       (Cleveland 1982)                   Why

                                  Know
                                  How

                           Know
                           What

               Know
              nothing




                                                7
ALLOCATION OF MENTAL SPACE




                             8
“I was very creative with my accounting, but not
               creative enough.”

          Finance is an Art
                                                   9
Financial Numbers
                10
A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in
  total. The bat costs $1 more than
  the ball. How much does the ball
  cost?

X:bat    X + Y = 1.10   1 + Y + Y = 1.10
Y:ball   X-Y =1            Y = 0.05
                                           11
A person's inability to make
sense of the numbers.




 Do you know how to
 deal with numbers?




                               12
200
            400          100
                        Customers
                  200

800         400          100
Potential
Customers




                                    13
$ Millions
  132



  131



  130



  129
    01/2010   03/2010


                        14
Look at the big picture
$ Millions
  140



  120



  100



  80
   01/2009            01/10 03/10


                                       15
Numbers tell a Story
                       16
Financial
Information




              17
Figuring out how much a company worth




     Share Price X # of Shares
 Present Value of Future Cash Flow

                                        18
19
Having more information is not always better




                                               20
Turning Financial Information
  into Financial Knowledge
                                21
A company has more cash today when:

 A. Accounts receivable increases.
 B. Profit increases.
 C. Customers pay their bills sooner.
 D. Retained earnings increases.




                                        22
Income Statement




- How do you account for any expenses and revenues?
- Who decides how you should account for any expenses and
revenues? The management!
- How do they know? They don’t! They guess. Lots of
accounting decisions are just that – guesses.
                                                            23
Profit is an Estimate




                        24
- Accountants had to make
judgments decisions when they
record financial transaction

- Financial managers need to
make objective decisions based
on these numbers that they get
from accountants


                                 25
Accountants should give the most
accurate picture of the company's
performance. (read footnotes)


- All financial decisions are based on judgment.

- Different methods produce different results.




                                                   26
Don’t trust the numbers
                          27
It is very important that you ask
questions about the numbers to
make sure that they are what
you think they are.




                                    28
- There is always accounting
judgment involved and that can
lead to manipulation

- Manipulation can benefit the
company (It is not illegal)




                                 29
- Accounting change that is
material to the bottom line should
be footnoted but who decide what
is material and what isn’t?
Accountants

- GAAP only provide guidelines



                                     30
Are the accountants making the right judgment decisions?

  Questions:




         Who control your organization?

                                                           31
32
Cooking the Financial Books



Assumptions (What ingredients to include)
Estimates (How much to include)

  You may assume that they’re accurate
  down to the last dollar. Not true! The
  balance in the cash account is exact,
  but virtually every other number you
  see in a financial report is based on an
  estimate.

                                             33
Increase Revenue
  (Revenue Recognition)




                          34
- Sold equipments on four-year leases, including
service and maintenance.
- Booked all the revenues up front.

- Xerox mis-stated four years' worth of profits,
resulting in an overstatement of close to $6bn.


                                                   35
Channel Stuffing

Company inflates sales
figures by forcing more
products through a
distribution channel
than the channel is
capable of selling to the
world at large.




                            36
Reduce Expenses
   (Matching Principle)




                          37
Income Statement




                   38
- Grow rapidly by buying
                                  other garbage companies.
                                  But didn't know to run them.

                                  - Changed the depreciation
                                  of their 20,000 tracks from
                                  8-10 years to 12-15 years
                                  and did the same for their 1.5
                                  million dumpsters




- Took a pretax charge -a one-
time write off- of 3.54 billion
against its earnings

                                                                 39
Which is more important?

 A. How much you make
 B. How much you keep
 C. How much you borrow
 D. How much you spend

       Net Profit

                           40
41
Balance Sheet




                42
Underreporting ‘line
                             costs’ (interconnection
                             expenses with other
                             telecommunication
                             companies) by capitalizing
                             these costs on the balance
                             sheet rather than properly
                             expensing them.


 In June 2002, the company admitted it had inflated its
profits by $3.8bn between January 2001 and March 2002.
By the end of 2003, it was estimated that the company's
  total assets had been inflated by around $11 billion

                                                          43
Goodwill
Goodwill =
Price paid - net assets (Assets - Liability)

Goodwill = $6 - (5 - 2) = 3

Goodwill could be amortized over a maximum
of forty years or the estimated useful life of the
acquired business.

                                                     44
!"#$%&'()#*(&+,(&*-.+&/*0-"+#$+&#..(+&
                                         45
Brand value accounts for
approximately %30 of the
market capitalization of
the S&P 500
(Millward Brown Optimor, 2007).




                                  46
- Bought 600 companies in 2000 and 2001 (undervalued
the assets and increase the goodwill) = Higher profit

- Tyco suffered more than a $9 billion loss in 2002, which
included the asset impairment write-down by over $3
billion, losses of nearly $2 billion for the two restructuring
charges, and over $1 billion from the two goodwill
impairment charges. In all, the net charges totaled nearly
$7 billion of the loss that year.

                                                                 47
If you own more than 50% of a
              company it must be consolidated on
              the parent company balance sheet,
              but if you own less than 50%, it
              typically stays off the balance sheet
              as an unconsolidated affiliate.


Enron established partnerships that
enabled them to move some of their
debt into affiliate companies that
should have been independent but
weren't. Ultimately, the partnerships
were doing the borrowing, which
protected Enron's credit ratings.

                                                      48
Cash is King




 Warren Buffett

                  49
Profit = Cash

Profit will be turned into cash
Profit without cash
Cash without profit


Cash Flow Statement:
- Cash In
- Cash Out


                                  50
!""#              !""$

Cash Flow    %&'()*+,-./0/)12)34'0/)5,+6)780+&9.:;)<=9.-.9.0'
               Net income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $          465,000     $    272,000
               Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided
Statement:      by operating activities
                 Depreciation and amortization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                                        479,000          300,000
                 Deferred income taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                              317,000           69,000
                 Gain on sale of property and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                                                      (28,000)         (59,000)
                 Changes in operating assets and liabilities
                   Accounts receivable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                            (3,000)         (64,000)
                   Inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .               (34,000)         129,000
                   Prepaid expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                         11,000            32,000
                   Accounts payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                         13,000            22,000
                   Accrued expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                          108,000         (110,000)
                                       Net cash provided by operating activities . . . . . . . . . . . .                                             1,328,000          591,000
             %&'()*+,-./0/)12)34'0/)5,+6)>:-0'9.:;)<=9.-.9.0'
               Purchase of property and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                                ......                 (1,010,000)    (1,430,000)
               Proceeds from disposal of property and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . .                                                                  38,000          7,000
               Purchase of investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                            (22,000)        —
                                       Net cash used for investing activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                                       (994,000)    (1,423,000)
             %&'()*+,-./0/)12)34'0/)5,+6)?.:&:=.:;)<=9.-.9.0'
               Additional long-term debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                            137,000           863,000
               Retirement of long-term debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                                (322,000)         (560,000)
               Issuance of common stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..                                 68,000           466,000
               Purchase of treasury stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                           —                    (18,000)
               Dividends paid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .              (154,000)         (133,000)
                                       Net cash provided by (used for)
                                         nancing activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                   (271,000)         618,000

             Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .                                                       63,000         (214,000)

             %&'()&:/)=&'()0@A.-&B0:9'C)10;.::.:;),5)20&+                                                             ................                 314,000          528,000
             %&'()&:/)=&'()0@A.-&B0:9'C)0:/),5)20&+                                                     ........................                $      377,000     $ 314,000

                                                                                                                                                                                    51
Jack is looking at Anne, but Anne is
looking at George. Jack is married, but
George is not. Is a married person
looking at an unmarried person?

 A. Yes
 B. No
 C. Cannot be determined

   Jack       Anne          George
 Married                   Unmarried
                                          52
P r o f e s s i o n a l s ,	
   w h o	
   h a ve	
  
knowledge	
   and	
   experience,	
  
may	
   think	
   they	
   can	
   make	
  
decisions	
   without	
   really	
   using	
  
their	
   minds.	
   They	
   don’t	
   expect	
  
new	
  things	
  and	
  they	
  miss	
  them.	
  
They	
   look	
   at	
   the	
   details	
   and	
  
forget	
  the	
  big	
  picture.




                                                       53
While you might not have all the
answers, you should know what
questions to ask.




                                   54
Strategic Financial
     Decisions




                      55
www.openthinkingacademy.com

                              56

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Here are the key points about a company's cash flow statement:- It shows how much cash a company generated or used during a period from operating, investing and financing activities. - Operating activities include cash from sales and payments to suppliers/employees. - Investing activities include cash used for capital expenditures, acquisitions and sales of property/equipment.- Financing activities include cash from issuing/repaying debt, paying dividends, buying back stock.- It reconciles net income to net cash provided by operations by adjusting for non-cash items.- It's important because it shows if a company can internally fund operations and growth or relies on external financing.- Positive operating

  • 1. Financial Intelligence Knowing what the numbers really mean Iyad Mourtada, CMA, CIA, CFE 1
  • 2. 2
  • 3. Why  do  smart  managers   make  bad  1inancial   decisions? 3
  • 4. Financial Intelligence Emotional Intelligence 4
  • 5. Neuron (nerve cell) is an electrically excitable cell that processes and transmits information by electrical and chemical signaling. Obtain Process Store Connect 5
  • 6. Financial Information Gross Margin = 22% Operating Margin = 7.5% Net Margin = 2.8% Financial Financial Knowledge Numbers 6
  • 7. The Continuum of Understanding Know (Cleveland 1982) Why Know How Know What Know nothing 7
  • 9. “I was very creative with my accounting, but not creative enough.” Finance is an Art 9
  • 11. A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? X:bat X + Y = 1.10 1 + Y + Y = 1.10 Y:ball X-Y =1 Y = 0.05 11
  • 12. A person's inability to make sense of the numbers. Do you know how to deal with numbers? 12
  • 13. 200 400 100 Customers 200 800 400 100 Potential Customers 13
  • 14. $ Millions 132 131 130 129 01/2010 03/2010 14
  • 15. Look at the big picture $ Millions 140 120 100 80 01/2009 01/10 03/10 15
  • 16. Numbers tell a Story 16
  • 18. Figuring out how much a company worth Share Price X # of Shares Present Value of Future Cash Flow 18
  • 19. 19
  • 20. Having more information is not always better 20
  • 21. Turning Financial Information into Financial Knowledge 21
  • 22. A company has more cash today when: A. Accounts receivable increases. B. Profit increases. C. Customers pay their bills sooner. D. Retained earnings increases. 22
  • 23. Income Statement - How do you account for any expenses and revenues? - Who decides how you should account for any expenses and revenues? The management! - How do they know? They don’t! They guess. Lots of accounting decisions are just that – guesses. 23
  • 24. Profit is an Estimate 24
  • 25. - Accountants had to make judgments decisions when they record financial transaction - Financial managers need to make objective decisions based on these numbers that they get from accountants 25
  • 26. Accountants should give the most accurate picture of the company's performance. (read footnotes) - All financial decisions are based on judgment. - Different methods produce different results. 26
  • 27. Don’t trust the numbers 27
  • 28. It is very important that you ask questions about the numbers to make sure that they are what you think they are. 28
  • 29. - There is always accounting judgment involved and that can lead to manipulation - Manipulation can benefit the company (It is not illegal) 29
  • 30. - Accounting change that is material to the bottom line should be footnoted but who decide what is material and what isn’t? Accountants - GAAP only provide guidelines 30
  • 31. Are the accountants making the right judgment decisions? Questions: Who control your organization? 31
  • 32. 32
  • 33. Cooking the Financial Books Assumptions (What ingredients to include) Estimates (How much to include) You may assume that they’re accurate down to the last dollar. Not true! The balance in the cash account is exact, but virtually every other number you see in a financial report is based on an estimate. 33
  • 34. Increase Revenue (Revenue Recognition) 34
  • 35. - Sold equipments on four-year leases, including service and maintenance. - Booked all the revenues up front. - Xerox mis-stated four years' worth of profits, resulting in an overstatement of close to $6bn. 35
  • 36. Channel Stuffing Company inflates sales figures by forcing more products through a distribution channel than the channel is capable of selling to the world at large. 36
  • 37. Reduce Expenses (Matching Principle) 37
  • 39. - Grow rapidly by buying other garbage companies. But didn't know to run them. - Changed the depreciation of their 20,000 tracks from 8-10 years to 12-15 years and did the same for their 1.5 million dumpsters - Took a pretax charge -a one- time write off- of 3.54 billion against its earnings 39
  • 40. Which is more important? A. How much you make B. How much you keep C. How much you borrow D. How much you spend Net Profit 40
  • 41. 41
  • 43. Underreporting ‘line costs’ (interconnection expenses with other telecommunication companies) by capitalizing these costs on the balance sheet rather than properly expensing them. In June 2002, the company admitted it had inflated its profits by $3.8bn between January 2001 and March 2002. By the end of 2003, it was estimated that the company's total assets had been inflated by around $11 billion 43
  • 44. Goodwill Goodwill = Price paid - net assets (Assets - Liability) Goodwill = $6 - (5 - 2) = 3 Goodwill could be amortized over a maximum of forty years or the estimated useful life of the acquired business. 44
  • 46. Brand value accounts for approximately %30 of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 (Millward Brown Optimor, 2007). 46
  • 47. - Bought 600 companies in 2000 and 2001 (undervalued the assets and increase the goodwill) = Higher profit - Tyco suffered more than a $9 billion loss in 2002, which included the asset impairment write-down by over $3 billion, losses of nearly $2 billion for the two restructuring charges, and over $1 billion from the two goodwill impairment charges. In all, the net charges totaled nearly $7 billion of the loss that year. 47
  • 48. If you own more than 50% of a company it must be consolidated on the parent company balance sheet, but if you own less than 50%, it typically stays off the balance sheet as an unconsolidated affiliate. Enron established partnerships that enabled them to move some of their debt into affiliate companies that should have been independent but weren't. Ultimately, the partnerships were doing the borrowing, which protected Enron's credit ratings. 48
  • 49. Cash is King Warren Buffett 49
  • 50. Profit = Cash Profit will be turned into cash Profit without cash Cash without profit Cash Flow Statement: - Cash In - Cash Out 50
  • 51. !""# !""$ Cash Flow %&'()*+,-./0/)12)34'0/)5,+6)780+&9.:;)<=9.-.9.0' Net income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 465,000 $ 272,000 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided Statement: by operating activities Depreciation and amortization. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479,000 300,000 Deferred income taxes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317,000 69,000 Gain on sale of property and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (28,000) (59,000) Changes in operating assets and liabilities Accounts receivable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (3,000) (64,000) Inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (34,000) 129,000 Prepaid expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,000 32,000 Accounts payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,000 22,000 Accrued expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108,000 (110,000) Net cash provided by operating activities . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,328,000 591,000 %&'()*+,-./0/)12)34'0/)5,+6)>:-0'9.:;)<=9.-.9.0' Purchase of property and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... (1,010,000) (1,430,000) Proceeds from disposal of property and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,000 7,000 Purchase of investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (22,000) — Net cash used for investing activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (994,000) (1,423,000) %&'()*+,-./0/)12)34'0/)5,+6)?.:&:=.:;)<=9.-.9.0' Additional long-term debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137,000 863,000 Retirement of long-term debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (322,000) (560,000) Issuance of common stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 68,000 466,000 Purchase of treasury stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — (18,000) Dividends paid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (154,000) (133,000) Net cash provided by (used for) nancing activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (271,000) 618,000 Increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63,000 (214,000) %&'()&:/)=&'()0@A.-&B0:9'C)10;.::.:;),5)20&+ ................ 314,000 528,000 %&'()&:/)=&'()0@A.-&B0:9'C)0:/),5)20&+ ........................ $ 377,000 $ 314,000 51
  • 52. Jack is looking at Anne, but Anne is looking at George. Jack is married, but George is not. Is a married person looking at an unmarried person? A. Yes B. No C. Cannot be determined Jack Anne George Married Unmarried 52
  • 53. P r o f e s s i o n a l s ,   w h o   h a ve   knowledge   and   experience,   may   think   they   can   make   decisions   without   really   using   their   minds.   They   don’t   expect   new  things  and  they  miss  them.   They   look   at   the   details   and   forget  the  big  picture. 53
  • 54. While you might not have all the answers, you should know what questions to ask. 54
  • 55. Strategic Financial Decisions 55

Notas do Editor

  1. learn how to deal with your emotions. (Don&amp;#x2019;t invest in the financial market when the market is moving up and don&amp;#x2019;t sell when the market is moving down ) When you are making financial decisions you are using numbers and financial information?
  2. It is not about knowledge but rather using and applying the knowledge on real life situations if you don&amp;#x2019;t know the asnwer
  3. Are you good with numbers
  4. Are you good with numbers
  5. Stock broker understand numbers
  6. Are you good with numbers
  7. How to deal with financial information
  8. How to deal with financial information Market Capitalization Future Cash Flow
  9. that more information is always better. But I describe lots of cases in &quot;Blink&quot; where that simply isn&apos;t true. There&apos;s a wonderful phrase in psychology--&quot;the power of thin slicing&quot;--which says that as human beings we are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience. (3 to 5) You need to have the ability to eliminate any irrelevant items rather than focusing on more items.
  10. This is not real profit
  11. Many managers think that income statement shows how much the cash the company earned during the period How much they spend and how much left over. And the left over amount will be the profit / No Income statement focuses on revenue and expenses and profit Accural Accounting method
  12. Profit is not cash
  13. Are you good with numbers
  14. Profit is not cash
  15. When you make decisions you should look at the Assumptions What are they (what to include and what not to include) &amp;#x2013; estimates how they are implemented &amp;#x2013; Bias of the implemeation&amp;#x2013; implications of the implemattion
  16. Are you good with numbers
  17. Playing with expenses
  18. Do you follow your feelings when you make financial decisions or just the numbers? You may feel that something is not right but the numbers are not telling you that. Do you follow your intuition? describe emotional reactions, gut feelings--thoughts and impressions that don&apos;t seem entirely rational. snap judgments Trust yourself and your ability to make right decisions that more information is always better. But I describe lots of cases in &quot;Blink&quot; where that simply isn&apos;t true. There&apos;s a wonderful phrase in psychology--&quot;the power of thin slicing&quot;--which says that as human beings we are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience. (3 to 5) You need to have the ability to eliminate any irrelevant items rather than focusing on more items. don&amp;#x2019;t always look at the numbers (marrage but really look at the big pitcure and follow you feelings) don&amp;#x2019;t frorce yourself to think
  19. Do you follow your feelings when you make financial decisions or just the numbers? You may feel that something is not right but the numbers are not telling you that. Do you follow your intuition? describe emotional reactions, gut feelings--thoughts and impressions that don&apos;t seem entirely rational. snap judgments Trust yourself and your ability to make right decisions that more information is always better. But I describe lots of cases in &quot;Blink&quot; where that simply isn&apos;t true. There&apos;s a wonderful phrase in psychology--&quot;the power of thin slicing&quot;--which says that as human beings we are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience. (3 to 5) You need to have the ability to eliminate any irrelevant items rather than focusing on more items. don&amp;#x2019;t always look at the numbers (marrage but really look at the big pitcure and follow you feelings) don&amp;#x2019;t frorce yourself to think
  20. Do you follow your feelings when you make financial decisions or just the numbers? You may feel that something is not right but the numbers are not telling you that. Do you follow your intuition? describe emotional reactions, gut feelings--thoughts and impressions that don&apos;t seem entirely rational. snap judgments Trust yourself and your ability to make right decisions that more information is always better. But I describe lots of cases in &quot;Blink&quot; where that simply isn&apos;t true. There&apos;s a wonderful phrase in psychology--&quot;the power of thin slicing&quot;--which says that as human beings we are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience. (3 to 5) You need to have the ability to eliminate any irrelevant items rather than focusing on more items. don&amp;#x2019;t always look at the numbers (marrage but really look at the big pitcure and follow you feelings) don&amp;#x2019;t frorce yourself to think
  21. Do you follow your feelings when you make financial decisions or just the numbers? You may feel that something is not right but the numbers are not telling you that. Do you follow your intuition? describe emotional reactions, gut feelings--thoughts and impressions that don&apos;t seem entirely rational. snap judgments Trust yourself and your ability to make right decisions that more information is always better. But I describe lots of cases in &quot;Blink&quot; where that simply isn&apos;t true. There&apos;s a wonderful phrase in psychology--&quot;the power of thin slicing&quot;--which says that as human beings we are capable of making sense of situations based on the thinnest slice of experience. (3 to 5) You need to have the ability to eliminate any irrelevant items rather than focusing on more items. don&amp;#x2019;t always look at the numbers (marrage but really look at the big pitcure and follow you feelings) don&amp;#x2019;t frorce yourself to think