The Benguela ecosystem is naturally adapted to a highly variable environment, but sustained transboundary events.It is necessary to understand the impact of this variability on fish distribution and abundance, and to predict major environmental events and their likely ecosystem consequences in order to manage effectively system-wide.
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
Incorporating Environmental Variability into the Management of a Large Marine Ecosystem- The BCLME As An Example
1. INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
VARIABILITY INTO THE
MANAGEMENT OF A LARGE MARINE
ECOSYSTEM – THE BCLME AS AN
EXAMPLE
Johann Augustyn
Marine and Coastal Management
Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
South Africa
Acknowledgements: Lesley Staegemann, Tony van Dalsen
2. THE BENGUELA IS A HIGHLY
VARIABLE SYSTEM
The Benguela ecosystem is naturally adapted to a
highly variable environment, but sustained
transboundary events, e.g.
– Benguela Niños
– widespread hypoxia
– Agulhas Current intrusions
– changes in winds
can impact on the whole system, compounding
negative effects of fishing
It is necessary to understand the impact of this
variability on fish distribution and abundance, and to
predict major environmental events and their likely
ecosystem consequences in order to manage
effectively system-wide
7. EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTH ATLANTIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
Eastern Tropical South Atlantic System: ETSA
EUC
SEUC
SECC
sSEC
Cape Basin
SACW
GCUC
AC
BPUC
EDZ
Acknowledgements: P Monteiro, A. van der Plas and others. In press
12. HAKE STOCKS STRADLE THE BORDER
BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND
NAMIBIA
NAMIBIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
Acknowledge M. Lipinski
13. Circulation in the Namibia/South
Africa boundary area deduced from
models
Schematic circulation reproduced by the model at (a) 230m, (b) 350m
and at (c) 575m depths.
14. STATE OF ENVIRONMENT
INFORMATION AND EARLY
WARNING SYSTEMS
•1999 TDA identified uncertainty regarding ecosystem
status and yields in a highly variable environment as a
major transboundary problem.
•Development of a viable monitoring and early warning
system and improving predictability of extreme events
seen as cornerstones of SAP Policy Action C
“Assessing Environmental Variability, Ecosystem
Impacts and Improvement of Predictability”
•SOE information and EWS have accordingly been
priorities for EVAG
15. SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SOE
SYSTEM DEVELOPED IN NAMIBIA
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr.99
Aug.99
Dec.99
Apr.00
Aug.00
Dec.00
Apr.01
Aug.01
Dec.01
Apr.02
Aug.02
Dec.02
Apr.03
%area<0.5ml/l
0
1500
3000
4500
Jan.00
Jul.00
Jan.01
Jul.01
Jan.02
Jul.02
Jan.03
Jul.03
numbers/m³
Vertical extent of low oxygen off central Namibia
Copepod abundance off central Namibia
16. SST in January 2005:
The warmest in two decades:
Global climate change?
17. DEVELOPMENT OF EWS FOR
THE BCLME
The BCLME Programme has invested in:
Re-interpretation of existing data and information
Cost-effective in situ monitoring
Application of satellite remote sensing
Modelling
Developing a predictive capacity
Proper understanding of processes supported by
appropriate measurements and modelling with a view to
predicting, are the essential elements of the emerging
EWS
18. THE BENGUELA:
PREDICTING A LARGE
MARINE ECOSYSTEM
Definitive peer-reviewed book to be published by Elsevier
Captures the combined wisdom of more than 100 international
experts who met in Cape Town in November 2005 to address
forecasting and data assimilation in the Benguela and comparable
systems
Shows that we ARE now ready to design an operational system
for forecasting in the Benguela.
Includes a comprehensive assessment of environmental and
resource variability in the BCLME and latest developments in
model applications.
Relevant for sustainable management of the Benguela
Blueprint for application in other comparable ecosystems
around the World.
19. CONCLUSION
The BCLME Programme is making excellent progress
in addressing promised Output 3 Strategy viz.
“Environmental variability, its ecosystem impacts are
assessed, and predictability is improved for enhancing
the management of living marine resources” when I
judge it against its stated OVIs and MOVs.
It really is making a difference for sustainable
integrated management of the ecosystem.
20. THE CHALLENGE
To incorporate our knowledge of environmental
variability and change, its predictability and its impacts
on living marine resources into viable system-wide EAF
(Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries) management in
the BCLME