SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 20
Baixar para ler offline
INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
VARIABILITY INTO THE
MANAGEMENT OF A LARGE MARINE
ECOSYSTEM – THE BCLME AS AN
EXAMPLE
Johann Augustyn
Marine and Coastal Management
Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
South Africa
Acknowledgements: Lesley Staegemann, Tony van Dalsen
THE BENGUELA IS A HIGHLY
VARIABLE SYSTEM
The Benguela ecosystem is naturally adapted to a
highly variable environment, but sustained
transboundary events, e.g.
– Benguela Niños
– widespread hypoxia
– Agulhas Current intrusions
– changes in winds
can impact on the whole system, compounding
negative effects of fishing
It is necessary to understand the impact of this
variability on fish distribution and abundance, and to
predict major environmental events and their likely
ecosystem consequences in order to manage
effectively system-wide
BOUNDARIES
AND SURFACE
CURRENTS
OF THE
BENGUELA
KEY COMPONENTS OF
ENVIRONMENTALVARIABILITY WHICH HAVE
SYSTEM-WIDE IMPACTS ON LIVING RESOURCES
1. BENGUELA NIÑOS
MODELLING
Subsurface propagation of warm and cold subsurface anomalies along
the coast in March 1984 and 1997.
Acknowledgement: Pierre Florenchie
HYPOXIA & ANOXIA IN THE
BCLME
EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTH ATLANTIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
Eastern Tropical South Atlantic System: ETSA
EUC
SEUC
SECC
sSEC
Cape Basin
SACW
GCUC
AC
BPUC
EDZ
Acknowledgements: P Monteiro, A. van der Plas and others. In press
ROCKLOBSTER WALKOUT
RED TIDES
BCLME Real Time Data Web Site
Incorporating Environmental Variability into the Management of a Large Marine Ecosystem- The BCLME As An Example
HAKE STOCKS STRADLE THE BORDER
BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND
NAMIBIA
NAMIBIA
SOUTH
AFRICA
Acknowledge M. Lipinski
Circulation in the Namibia/South
Africa boundary area deduced from
models
Schematic circulation reproduced by the model at (a) 230m, (b) 350m
and at (c) 575m depths.
STATE OF ENVIRONMENT
INFORMATION AND EARLY
WARNING SYSTEMS
•1999 TDA identified uncertainty regarding ecosystem
status and yields in a highly variable environment as a
major transboundary problem.
•Development of a viable monitoring and early warning
system and improving predictability of extreme events
seen as cornerstones of SAP Policy Action C
“Assessing Environmental Variability, Ecosystem
Impacts and Improvement of Predictability”
•SOE information and EWS have accordingly been
priorities for EVAG
SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SOE
SYSTEM DEVELOPED IN NAMIBIA
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr.99
Aug.99
Dec.99
Apr.00
Aug.00
Dec.00
Apr.01
Aug.01
Dec.01
Apr.02
Aug.02
Dec.02
Apr.03
%area<0.5ml/l
0
1500
3000
4500
Jan.00
Jul.00
Jan.01
Jul.01
Jan.02
Jul.02
Jan.03
Jul.03
numbers/m³
Vertical extent of low oxygen off central Namibia
Copepod abundance off central Namibia
SST in January 2005:
The warmest in two decades:
Global climate change?
DEVELOPMENT OF EWS FOR
THE BCLME
The BCLME Programme has invested in:
Re-interpretation of existing data and information
Cost-effective in situ monitoring
Application of satellite remote sensing
Modelling
Developing a predictive capacity
Proper understanding of processes supported by
appropriate measurements and modelling with a view to
predicting, are the essential elements of the emerging
EWS
THE BENGUELA:
PREDICTING A LARGE
MARINE ECOSYSTEM
 Definitive peer-reviewed book to be published by Elsevier
 Captures the combined wisdom of more than 100 international
experts who met in Cape Town in November 2005 to address
forecasting and data assimilation in the Benguela and comparable
systems
 Shows that we ARE now ready to design an operational system
for forecasting in the Benguela.
 Includes a comprehensive assessment of environmental and
resource variability in the BCLME and latest developments in
model applications.
 Relevant for sustainable management of the Benguela
 Blueprint for application in other comparable ecosystems
around the World.
CONCLUSION
The BCLME Programme is making excellent progress
in addressing promised Output 3 Strategy viz.
“Environmental variability, its ecosystem impacts are
assessed, and predictability is improved for enhancing
the management of living marine resources” when I
judge it against its stated OVIs and MOVs.
It really is making a difference for sustainable
integrated management of the ecosystem.
THE CHALLENGE
To incorporate our knowledge of environmental
variability and change, its predictability and its impacts
on living marine resources into viable system-wide EAF
(Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries) management in
the BCLME

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean ipcc-media
 
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases
Greenhouse GasesJesse Diaz
 
Incoming solar rediation imbalance
Incoming solar rediation imbalanceIncoming solar rediation imbalance
Incoming solar rediation imbalanceShubham Pachpor
 
Anthropomorphic, climate change
Anthropomorphic, climate changeAnthropomorphic, climate change
Anthropomorphic, climate changenybergjohn
 
9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological spring
9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological spring9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological spring
9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological springceriuniroma
 
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific ipcc-media
 
Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...
Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...
Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...Zachary Labe
 
Esha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild fires
Esha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild firesEsha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild fires
Esha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild firesEshaSapkale
 
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?Keith_Shotbolt
 
Introducing Asian climate change
Introducing Asian climate changeIntroducing Asian climate change
Introducing Asian climate changeipcc-media
 
Presentation 5 2
Presentation 5 2Presentation 5 2
Presentation 5 2guest0bb954
 
Rising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & SolutionsRising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & SolutionsPaul H. Carr
 

Mais procurados (20)

Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Caribbean
 
Villamor Jan29
Villamor Jan29Villamor Jan29
Villamor Jan29
 
Climate factors
Climate factorsClimate factors
Climate factors
 
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Gases
 
Climppf1
Climppf1Climppf1
Climppf1
 
Incoming solar rediation imbalance
Incoming solar rediation imbalanceIncoming solar rediation imbalance
Incoming solar rediation imbalance
 
Anthropomorphic, climate change
Anthropomorphic, climate changeAnthropomorphic, climate change
Anthropomorphic, climate change
 
Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation
Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC PresentationVicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation
Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation
 
The Climate Crisis
The Climate CrisisThe Climate Crisis
The Climate Crisis
 
9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological spring
9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological spring9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological spring
9oct 2 fabbri-hydrogeological spring
 
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific
Regional Climate Information: Small Islands - Pacific
 
Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...
Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...
Why is it difficult to resolve future projections of Arctic-midlatitude linka...
 
Esha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild fires
Esha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild firesEsha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild fires
Esha sapkale sybms b 217416 wild fires
 
Global warming
Global warmingGlobal warming
Global warming
 
Global Warming
Global WarmingGlobal Warming
Global Warming
 
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
Climate Change Paper - CO2 or Crop Irrigation?
 
Global warming
Global warmingGlobal warming
Global warming
 
Introducing Asian climate change
Introducing Asian climate changeIntroducing Asian climate change
Introducing Asian climate change
 
Presentation 5 2
Presentation 5 2Presentation 5 2
Presentation 5 2
 
Rising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & SolutionsRising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & Solutions
 

Semelhante a Incorporating Environmental Variability into the Management of a Large Marine Ecosystem- The BCLME As An Example

Dr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing Climate
Dr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing ClimateDr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing Climate
Dr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing ClimateCarbon Coalition
 
RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814
RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814
RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814Peter Burgess
 
The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...
The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...
The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...catherine870535
 
Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza
Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza
Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza Bosco Hitimana
 
One Ocean - Auckland Launch and Discussion
One Ocean - Auckland Launch and DiscussionOne Ocean - Auckland Launch and Discussion
One Ocean - Auckland Launch and DiscussionMcGuinness Institute
 
Unep deep sea biodiversity
Unep deep sea biodiversityUnep deep sea biodiversity
Unep deep sea biodiversityJoão Soares
 
ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...
ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...
ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...European Sustainable Phosphorus Platform
 
Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...
Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...
Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...Iwl Pcu
 
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:Noosa Biosphere
 
Children's_environmental_health_climate-change
Children's_environmental_health_climate-changeChildren's_environmental_health_climate-change
Children's_environmental_health_climate-changeguest66dc5f
 
X-jobb Daniel och Xing
X-jobb Daniel och XingX-jobb Daniel och Xing
X-jobb Daniel och Xingxing tan
 

Semelhante a Incorporating Environmental Variability into the Management of a Large Marine Ecosystem- The BCLME As An Example (20)

Dr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing Climate
Dr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing ClimateDr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing Climate
Dr Andrew Rawson: Soil Carbon Sequestration in a Changing Climate
 
Global climate change has regional implications and regional impacts
Global climate change has regional implications and regional impactsGlobal climate change has regional implications and regional impacts
Global climate change has regional implications and regional impacts
 
RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814
RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814
RISK p3-14 CLIMATE CHANGE ... Hansen et al predictions 2015 150814
 
Ganoulis paris
Ganoulis parisGanoulis paris
Ganoulis paris
 
FP7 activities in the Environment
FP7 activities in the EnvironmentFP7 activities in the Environment
FP7 activities in the Environment
 
The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...
The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...
The Amazon We Want: Science Based Pathways for a Sustainable, Inclusive, and ...
 
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
Mercator Ocean newsletter 33
 
Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza
Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza
Presentation by Dr Omar Munyaneza
 
One Ocean - Auckland Launch and Discussion
One Ocean - Auckland Launch and DiscussionOne Ocean - Auckland Launch and Discussion
One Ocean - Auckland Launch and Discussion
 
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises poster
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises posterAbrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises poster
Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises poster
 
Unep deep sea biodiversity
Unep deep sea biodiversityUnep deep sea biodiversity
Unep deep sea biodiversity
 
ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...
ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...
ESPC3 - Petteri Taalas - Secretary general World Meteorological Organization ...
 
Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...
Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...
Keynote Presentation: Annadel Cabanban, Senior Fisheries Expert, Sulu-Celebes...
 
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
Noosa Biosphere Climate Action Project:
 
Drylands Climate: knowledge and projections, Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa ICPAC
Drylands Climate: knowledge and projections, Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa ICPAC Drylands Climate: knowledge and projections, Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa ICPAC
Drylands Climate: knowledge and projections, Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa ICPAC
 
Children's_environmental_health_climate-change
Children's_environmental_health_climate-changeChildren's_environmental_health_climate-change
Children's_environmental_health_climate-change
 
2014 geospatial
2014 geospatial2014 geospatial
2014 geospatial
 
Climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin Creighton
Climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin CreightonClimate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin Creighton
Climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - Colin Creighton
 
310B Disertation
310B Disertation310B Disertation
310B Disertation
 
X-jobb Daniel och Xing
X-jobb Daniel och XingX-jobb Daniel och Xing
X-jobb Daniel och Xing
 

Mais de Iwl Pcu

Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)
Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)
Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)Iwl Pcu
 
Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)
Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)
Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)Iwl Pcu
 
Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...
Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...
Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...Iwl Pcu
 
Understanding the audience (IWC8)
Understanding the audience (IWC8)Understanding the audience (IWC8)
Understanding the audience (IWC8)Iwl Pcu
 
Effective slide designing
Effective slide designingEffective slide designing
Effective slide designingIwl Pcu
 
How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)
How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)
How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)Iwl Pcu
 
Presentation vs Publication
Presentation vs PublicationPresentation vs Publication
Presentation vs PublicationIwl Pcu
 
Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)
Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)
Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)Iwl Pcu
 
GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...
GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...
GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6Iwl Pcu
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5Iwl Pcu
 

Mais de Iwl Pcu (20)

Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)
Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)
Flood and Drought Management Tools (IWC8)
 
Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)
Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)
Caribbean Wastewater - Innovative Solutions (IWC8)
 
Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...
Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...
Large Marine Ecosystems: Megaregional Best Practices for LME Assessment and M...
 
Understanding the audience (IWC8)
Understanding the audience (IWC8)Understanding the audience (IWC8)
Understanding the audience (IWC8)
 
Effective slide designing
Effective slide designingEffective slide designing
Effective slide designing
 
How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)
How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)
How to communicate science effectively (IWC8 Presentation)
 
Presentation vs Publication
Presentation vs PublicationPresentation vs Publication
Presentation vs Publication
 
Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)
Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)
Introduction to Nutrient Roundtable (IWC8)
 
GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...
GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...
GEF Oceanic Fisheries Management Project – Towards Transformation Change (IWC...
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 1
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 10
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 9
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 7
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 6
 
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
TDA/SAP Methodology Training Course Module 2 Section 5
 

Incorporating Environmental Variability into the Management of a Large Marine Ecosystem- The BCLME As An Example

  • 1. INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABILITY INTO THE MANAGEMENT OF A LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM – THE BCLME AS AN EXAMPLE Johann Augustyn Marine and Coastal Management Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism South Africa Acknowledgements: Lesley Staegemann, Tony van Dalsen
  • 2. THE BENGUELA IS A HIGHLY VARIABLE SYSTEM The Benguela ecosystem is naturally adapted to a highly variable environment, but sustained transboundary events, e.g. – Benguela Niños – widespread hypoxia – Agulhas Current intrusions – changes in winds can impact on the whole system, compounding negative effects of fishing It is necessary to understand the impact of this variability on fish distribution and abundance, and to predict major environmental events and their likely ecosystem consequences in order to manage effectively system-wide
  • 4. KEY COMPONENTS OF ENVIRONMENTALVARIABILITY WHICH HAVE SYSTEM-WIDE IMPACTS ON LIVING RESOURCES 1. BENGUELA NIÑOS
  • 5. MODELLING Subsurface propagation of warm and cold subsurface anomalies along the coast in March 1984 and 1997. Acknowledgement: Pierre Florenchie
  • 6. HYPOXIA & ANOXIA IN THE BCLME
  • 7. EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTH ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION Eastern Tropical South Atlantic System: ETSA EUC SEUC SECC sSEC Cape Basin SACW GCUC AC BPUC EDZ Acknowledgements: P Monteiro, A. van der Plas and others. In press
  • 10. BCLME Real Time Data Web Site
  • 12. HAKE STOCKS STRADLE THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND NAMIBIA NAMIBIA SOUTH AFRICA Acknowledge M. Lipinski
  • 13. Circulation in the Namibia/South Africa boundary area deduced from models Schematic circulation reproduced by the model at (a) 230m, (b) 350m and at (c) 575m depths.
  • 14. STATE OF ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS •1999 TDA identified uncertainty regarding ecosystem status and yields in a highly variable environment as a major transboundary problem. •Development of a viable monitoring and early warning system and improving predictability of extreme events seen as cornerstones of SAP Policy Action C “Assessing Environmental Variability, Ecosystem Impacts and Improvement of Predictability” •SOE information and EWS have accordingly been priorities for EVAG
  • 15. SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SOE SYSTEM DEVELOPED IN NAMIBIA 0 20 40 60 80 100 Apr.99 Aug.99 Dec.99 Apr.00 Aug.00 Dec.00 Apr.01 Aug.01 Dec.01 Apr.02 Aug.02 Dec.02 Apr.03 %area<0.5ml/l 0 1500 3000 4500 Jan.00 Jul.00 Jan.01 Jul.01 Jan.02 Jul.02 Jan.03 Jul.03 numbers/m³ Vertical extent of low oxygen off central Namibia Copepod abundance off central Namibia
  • 16. SST in January 2005: The warmest in two decades: Global climate change?
  • 17. DEVELOPMENT OF EWS FOR THE BCLME The BCLME Programme has invested in: Re-interpretation of existing data and information Cost-effective in situ monitoring Application of satellite remote sensing Modelling Developing a predictive capacity Proper understanding of processes supported by appropriate measurements and modelling with a view to predicting, are the essential elements of the emerging EWS
  • 18. THE BENGUELA: PREDICTING A LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM  Definitive peer-reviewed book to be published by Elsevier  Captures the combined wisdom of more than 100 international experts who met in Cape Town in November 2005 to address forecasting and data assimilation in the Benguela and comparable systems  Shows that we ARE now ready to design an operational system for forecasting in the Benguela.  Includes a comprehensive assessment of environmental and resource variability in the BCLME and latest developments in model applications.  Relevant for sustainable management of the Benguela  Blueprint for application in other comparable ecosystems around the World.
  • 19. CONCLUSION The BCLME Programme is making excellent progress in addressing promised Output 3 Strategy viz. “Environmental variability, its ecosystem impacts are assessed, and predictability is improved for enhancing the management of living marine resources” when I judge it against its stated OVIs and MOVs. It really is making a difference for sustainable integrated management of the ecosystem.
  • 20. THE CHALLENGE To incorporate our knowledge of environmental variability and change, its predictability and its impacts on living marine resources into viable system-wide EAF (Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries) management in the BCLME