Kenyans – including Members of Parliament, it appears – continue to learn more about their new constitution – the hard way. That is, certain implementation requirements that had not attracted much attention are now doing so as the five-year deadline for the implementation of some of its provisions becomes clearer. At the moment, the one causing most jitters is that which requires that no more than two-thirds of all legislative bodies be of the same gender. This includes both houses of parliament and all 47 county assemblies. Such ‘affirmative action’ was seen by the drafters as necessary to compensate for the dominance of men in Kenyan society, which has both pre-colonial (e.g., inheritance practices) and contemporary manifestations (e.g., the disadvantage of women with regard to the material resources that winning both party nominations and actual elective seats require).

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Nairobi, Kenya
8th May 2015
Ipsos’ 1st
Quarter SPEC (Social, Political,
Economic and Cultural) Survey:
Sixth Media Release
The Constitution: One-Third Gender Rule
 Few Kenyans are aware of the one-third gender rule
 Only half of those aware think that the requirement will be met before the current
deadline (August 2015)
 Among all Kenyans, there is no difference between men and women in whether
having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would affect the quality of politics and
governance
Introduction
Kenyans – including Members of Parliament, it appears – continue to learn more about their
new constitution – the hard way. That is, certain implementation requirements that had not
attracted much attention are now doing so as the five-year deadline for the implementation
of some of its provisions becomes clearer.
At the moment, the one causing most jitters is that which requires that no more than two-
thirds of all legislative bodies be of the same gender. This includes both houses of
parliament and all 47 county assemblies. Such ‘affirmative action’ was seen by the drafters
as necessary to compensate for the dominance of men in Kenyan society, which has both
pre-colonial (e.g., inheritance practices) and contemporary manifestations (e.g., the
disadvantage of women with regard to the material resources that winning both party
nominations and actual elective seats require).
Prior to the first general election under the new constitution, the Attorney-General requested
and received an advisory opinion from the Supreme Court in December, 2012 allowing that
while this requirement need not apply to the March, 2013, elections, it must be in effect by
27 August, 2015, five years after the new constitution was promulgated.
This deadline is appearing increasingly dreadful to all these sitting members, since
according to the constitution – as well as the Supreme Court which issued a ruling on the
matter last year – if legislation has not been passed and signed into law by August 27, any
citizen could go to court and seek an order dissolving all these legislative bodies, to be
followed by new elections for each. And it is widely agreed that the last thing such members
would relish is having to return to the campaign trail (assuming they could overcome the first
hurdle of party nominations) more than two years early.
At present, there are only 21 women MPs in the National Assembly out of a total of 349,
making just 6%. Moreover, of the 290 elected seats, only 15 are women, or 5%. Clearly,
then, something drastic must be done to push the figure up to one-third.
For its part, Justice and Legal Affairs Chairman Samuel Chepkong’a has shepherded a bill
through his committee that seeks to “indefinitely postpone” this requirement, though women
MPs and several governance NGOs are demanding withdrawal of the bill, as have The
Commission on the Implementation of the Constitution, on the grounds that it clearly violates
the constitution. One key problem, however, is that even those in support of the 1/3-

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maximum gender rule have been unable to agree on just how this should be achieved, at
least without substantially increasing the number of members of all the legislative bodies
concerned, given the ballooning public wage bill – and the public’s clear unhappiness with
this situation.
For example, in another part of this same Ipsos survey, when asked for suggestions as to
how the teachers’ demands for better terms of services might be met, most Kenyans
suggested (in addition to reducing corruption), cuts in the pay and benefits of elected leaders
or a reduction in their number, neither of which suggest there is much support for expanding
the legislature’s population of whatever gender.
Even more relevant, when asked what changes in the current constitution, if any, do they
support, more respondents (12%) mentioned “reducing the number of elected officials” than
anything else, followed closely by those (11%) who support “reducing the salaries and
benefits of elected officials.”
In light of this looming deadline, Ipsos included several questions on this issue in its most
recent SPEC survey, the results of which are presented below.
Only four out ten Kenyans (39%) are aware of the one-third gender rule
Respondents were first asked, “What is the constitutional requirement about the
representation of women in all elected bodies such as parliament, county assemblies?” Not
even half (39%) knew the correct answer, although substantially more men than women did
so (45% vs. 33%).
“If you know, what is the constitutional requirement about the
representation of women in all elected bodies such as parliament, county
assemblies?” (By Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
39%
45%
33%
41%
44%
25% 25% 24% 24% 24%
37%
29%
43%
36%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Total (n=1,964) Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008) CORD Supporters
(n=624)
Jubilee Supporters
(n=871)
Correct answer [at least one-third women] Incorrect answer Don't Know

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Half of those aware (52%) think that the requirement will be met within the
period stated in the constitution (August 2015)
Among those aware of this requirement, barely half (52%) are optimistic that it can be met
before the August deadline, with one-third (34%) certain that it will not be; the remainder
(14%) are not sure. In partisan terms, only slightly more Jubilee than CORD supporters
express such optimism (29% vs. 25%).
Among all Kenyans, there is no difference between men and women in the
belief that having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would affect the
quality of politics and governance
More generally, Kenyans are divided on whether having met this requirement, the quality of
politics/governance in the country would improve, with about half (48%) believing this would
be the case, and rest themselves divided between being uncertain, or certain that it would
make no difference (25% and 27%, respectively). Surprisingly, perhaps, men and women
are equally modest in their expectations on this issue (47% vs. 48%), suggesting that those
most active in promoting this provision’s implementation have considerable work to be done
in convincing even those for whom it was intended to be most beneficial (i.e., women).
However, Jubilee supporters are slightly more optimistic than their CORD counterparts
regarding such expectations (53% vs. 44%).
YES, 52%
NO, 34%
Not sure/Don't
Know, 14%
Base: Those aware of the one-third gender
rule (n=764)
“Do you think that this requirement will be met within the period
stated in the constitution (August 2015)?” (By Total)

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Among those aware of the rule, a higher proportion believe that having at least
1/3 women in all elected bodies would improve the quality of politics and
governance
However, among the 39% aware of the constitutional requirement, two-thirds (66%) expect
an improvement in public life following such an increase in female representation in the
country’s elective bodies. Within this more aware section of the sample, women are
marginally more optimistic than men about such beneficial impact (70% vs. 63%), even if no
significant contrast is seen between CORD and Jubilee supporters (again, within this ‘aware’
group: 66% vs. 65%).
48% 47% 48%
44%
53%
27%
32%
23%
29% 27%25%
21%
29% 28%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
All respondents
(n=1,964)
Male (n=956) Female (n=1,008) CORD Supporters
(n=624)
Jubilee Supporters
(n=871)
YES NO Not sure
“Do you think having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would
improve the quality of politics and governance?”
(By Total, Gender, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)
66% 63%
70%
66% 65%
27% 31%
22% 24%
29%
7% 6% 8% 10%
6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Those aware of the
1/3 Gender rule
(n=764)
Male (n=435) Female (n=329) CORD Supporters
(n=254)
Jubilee Supporters
(n=384)
YES NO Not sure
“Do you think having at least 1/3 women in all elected bodies would
improve the quality of politics and governance?”
(Of Those Aware of the 1/3 Gender Rule, by Total Gender, Supporters
of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions)

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Comment
While it remains unclear what solution will be found to remove this gender-rule ‘Sword of
Damocles’ hanging over parliament’s head, it is certain that the last thing current Members
want is to miss this deadline, triggering dissolution of parliament and new elections. Yet
they, and their sponsoring political parties, also know that public support for any increase in
the cost of government with which they are associated will make their re-election more
difficult, whenever the next election is held.
In this regard, the estimated additional annual cost of each additional MP of Shs. 21m
(according to the Institute of Economic Affairs) is not something likely to go down well with
the already-overburdened tax-payer.
But is there any way in which this requirement can be met without increasing the total
number of seats? One method would be to randomly select one-third of the 290 ordinary
constituencies prior to each election and require that only women candidates can be
nominated to run for those seats. Then in each subsequent election, those constituencies
that had already ‘had their turn’ (to be represented by a woman) would be removed from the
selection-pool, until all constituencies have been covered, at which point the process would
start over again with all of them back in the selection-pool. Since some additional
constituencies may also end up with a female representative, it is possible – if not likely –
that the one-third minimum threshold will be more than met. But if that saves public money
by avoiding an increase in the overall number of seats, it would probably get more public
support than any of the other proposals currently being discussed – including the ‘to-be-
progressively-implemented’ one offered by Hon. Chepkong’a, that the women MPs are so
vehemently opposing.
Finally, there is the matter of the contrast between women who enter parliament through
regular, competitive elections at the constituency level in contests against other candidates
of whatever gender, and those who do so through some female-only formula. Would the
implementation of this gender constitutional requirement make winning nominations and
actual seats in the ‘normal’ way more difficult? And would those who win in contests against
men feel ‘superior’ to their gender-quota female colleagues? For that matter, do the 15 who
won in such contests in the last election feel that way, or does it make no difference?
Survey Methodology
The target population for this survey was Kenyans aged 18 years and above, of whom 1,964
living in urban and rural areas were interviewed. The margin-of-error attributed to sampling
and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 with a 95% confidence level.
The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 28th
March and 7th
April 2015. Data
was collected through face-to-face interviews using hand held devices (smart phones). Ipsos
Limited (Kenya) funded the survey.
For further details on this press release please contact:
Dr. Tom Wolf Victor Rateng
Research Analyst Opinion Polls Project Manager
tpwolf1944@gmail.com victor.rateng@ipsos.com
Tel: 386 2721-33 Tel: 386 2721-33
www.ipsos.co.ke www.ipsos.co.ke