Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future (20) Mais de International Energy Agency (20) Tapping technology’s potential to secure a clean energy future1. Tapping technology’s potential
to secure a clean energy future
Ms. Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director
Mr. Bo Diczfalusy, Director
Presentation to Press June 11 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012
2. ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures
2DS 4DS 6DS
a vision of a sustainable reflecting pledges by where the world is now
energy system of reduced countries to cut heading with potentially
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and boost devastating results
and CO2 emissions energy efficiency
The 2°C Scenario The 4°C Scenario The 6°C Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2012
3. Sustainable future still in reach
Are we on track to Can we get on Is a clean energy
reach a clean track? transition urgent?
energy future?
NO ✗ YES ✓ YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012
4. Recommendations to Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence
in clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public research,
development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012
5. A smart, sustainable energy system
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
6. A smart, sustainable energy system
Co-generation Renewable energy resources
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Distributed
energy resources
Smart energy
system control
H2 vehicle
Surplus heat EV
A sustainable energy system is a smarter,
more unified and integrated energy system
© OECD/IEA 2012
7. Clean energy: slow lane to fast track
Cleaner coal power
Nuclear power
Renewable power
CCS in power
CCS in industry Progress is too slow in
Industry
almost all technology areas
Significant action is required
Buildings
to get back on track
Fuel economy
Electric vehicles
Biofuels for transport
© OECD/IEA 2012
8. Low-carbon electricity: a clean core
45 000 Other
40 000 Wind
35 000 Solar
30 000 Hydro
Nuclear
TWh
25 000
Biomass and waste
20 000
Oil
15 000 Gas with CCS
10 000 Gas
5 000 Coal with CCS
0 Coal
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Renewables will generate more than
half the world’s electricity in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012
9. Natural Gas: a transitional fuel
7 500
Power Generation from Natural Gas
5 000
TWh
2 500
0
2009 2020 2030 2040 2050
Other non-OECD India China OECD
Around 2030, natural gas becomes ‘high carbon’
© OECD/IEA 2012
10. The CCS infant must grow quickly
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Mt CO2
Note: Capture rates in MtCO2 /year
© OECD/IEA 2012
11. Industry must become more efficient
12 6DS
10 Other industries
8 Chemicals and
petrochemicals
GtCO2
6 Aluminium
4 Pulp and paper
2 Iron and steel
0 Cement
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency
can be achieved through best available technologies.
© OECD/IEA 2012
12. Electric vehicles need to come of age
200 FCEV Electric Vehicles
Fuel Cell
Electricity
Passenger LDV sales (million)
150 Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
100 Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid
50 CNG/LPG
Diesel
0 Gasoline
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
More than 90% of light duty vehicles need to be
propelled by an electric motor in 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
13. Translating targets into action
8
7
6
million sales/year
5
Projection
4 (Estimated from
each country's
3 target)
2
1
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
© OECD/IEA 2012
14. Translating targets into action
8
7
Manufacturers
6 production/sales
million sales/year
5
4
3
Projection
2 (Estimated from
each country's
1
target)
0
2010
2010 2012
2012 2014
2014 2016
2016 2018
2018 2020
2020
Government targets need to be backed by policy action
© OECD/IEA 2012
15. Building Blocks of a Cleaner Future
Total energy savings
33 EJ Space heating
22%
Other
15%
Water heating
Services 12%
Lighting, 3%
Residential
Cooling and ventilation, 3%
Water heating, 2%
Cooking
15%
Space heating, 7%
Appliances Cooling and ventilation
10% Lighting 5%
6%
About 70% of buildings’ potential energy savings between
the 4DS and 2DS are in the residential sector
© OECD/IEA 2012
16. Building sector challenges differ
2.5
2.0
Billion households
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
17. Building sector challenges differ
2.5
2.0
Billion households
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
OECD Non OECD
75% of current buildings in OECD will still be standing in 2050
18. Heating & Cooling: huge potential
Renewable heat Integration with electricity
District heating and
cooling network
Co-generation Surplus heat
Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use.
Their huge potential for cutting CO2 emissions is often neglected.
© OECD/IEA 2012
19. Emissions must be eliminated by 2075
A zero-carbon future looks possible but will be very
challenging, even if 2050 targets are met in the 2DS.
© OECD/IEA 2012
20. Clean energy investment pays off
Additional Additional investment
investment Power
Power
With
Fuel savings
Industry
price effect
Industry
Transport
Without
price effect Residential
Transport
Commercial
Undiscounted
Total savings
Fuel savings
Fuel savings
Residential
3% Biomass
Commercial
Coal
10%
Oil
Gas
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
21. Clean energy investment pays off
Additional Additional investment
investment Power
With
Fuel savings
Industry
price effect
Transport
Without
price effect Residential
Commercial
Undiscounted
Total savings
Fuel savings
3% Biomass
Coal
10%
Oil
Gas
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012
22. Clean energy investment pays off
Additional Additional investment
investment Power
With
Fuel savings
Industry
price effect
Transport
Without
price effect Residential
Commercial
Undiscounted
Total savings
Fuel savings
3% Biomass
Coal
10%
Oil
Gas
- 160 - 120 - 80 - 40 0 40
USD trillion
Every additional dollar invested in clean energy
can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012