Ambassador Richard Jones Deputy Executive Director, IEA Leeds University 21 March 2012

1. Meeting Global Energy
Challenges through
Technology
Leeds University, 21 March 2012
Ambassador Richard Jones
Deputy Executive Director, IEA
© OECD/IEA - 2010

2. The context
 The world needs an energy technology
revolution to satisfy its energy needs in ways
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
that are secure, affordable and sustainable.
PERSPECTIVES
2010
 Unprecedented rates of change in new
Scenarios &
Strategies technology uptake will be needed
to 2050
 There are some early signs of progress, but
much more needs to be done.
 Which technologies can play a role?
 What are the costs and benefits?
 What policies are needed?
© OECD/IEA - 2010

3. Global energy-related CO2 emissions in
the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
60
ENERGY Gt CO2
TECHNOLOGY 50
PERSPECTIVES Other
2010 40 Buildings
Scenarios & Transport
Strategies 30
to 2050 Industry
20 Other transformation
Power generation
10
0
2007 2030 2050 2030 2050
Baseline BLUE Map
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in
the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors
reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

4. World energy-related CO2 emissions
abatement by region
60
Gt CO2
ENERGY Baseline emissions 57 Gt
55 Other Non-OECD 19%
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES 50 Other OME 14%
2010 45
India 12%
40
Scenarios &
Strategies 35 China 27%
to 2050 30 Other OECD 10%
25
OECD Europe 7%
20
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt United States 11%
10
5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in
energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD
countries.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

5. Key technologies for reducing global
CO2 emissions
ENERGY Gt CO2 60
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
TECHNOLOGY 55 CCS 19%
PERSPECTIVES 50
2010 Renewables 17%
45
Scenarios & 40 Nuclear 6%
Strategies
to 2050 35
30 Power generation efficiency
and fuel switching 5%
25
End-use fuel switching 15%
20
15 BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt End-use fuel and electricity
10 efficiency 38%
5 WEO 2009 450 ppm case ETP2010 analysis
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to
reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

6. Primary energy demand by fuel and by
scenario
ENERGY 8 000
TECHNOLOGY Mtoe 2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050
PERSPECTIVES 7 000
2010 6 000
Scenarios & 5 000
-27%
Strategies 4 000
to 2050 -36%
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than
today under the BLUE Map scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

7. Decarbonising the power sector –
a new age of electrification?
50
PWh
Other
ENERGY 45
TECHNOLOGY Solar
PERSPECTIVES 40
Wind
2010
35 Biomass+CCS
Scenarios & Biomass and waste
Strategies 30
to 2050 Hydro
25
Nuclear
20 Natural gas+CCS
15 Natural gas
Oil
10
Coal+CCS
5 Coal
0
2007 Baseline 2050 BLUE Map BLUE High BLUE High Ren
2050 Nuclear 2050 2050
A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with
CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity
© OECD/IEA - 2010 sector.

8. Average annual electricity capacity
additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario
ENERGY Present rate Gap to reach BLUE Map
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES Coal-fired with CCS 35 plants (500 MW)
2010 Gas-fired with CCS 20 plants (500 MW)
Nuclear Historical high 30 plants (1 000 MW)
Scenarios &
Strategies Hydro 2/3 of Three Gorges Dam
to 2050 Biomass plants 200 plants (50 MW)
Wind-onshore 12 000 turbines (4 MW)
Wind-offshore 3 600 turbines (4 MW)
Geothermal 45 units (100 MW)
Solar PV 325 million m 2 solar panels
Solar CSP 55 CSP plants (250 MW)
0 10 20 30 40 50
GW/ yr
Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon
technologies must be massively increased from
today’s levels.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

9. Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050
Greater integration of
2.50
renewables
ENERGY
Gt CO2 / yr
2.25
TECHNOLOGY Facilitation of electric vehicles
and plug-in electric vehicles
PERSPECTIVES 2.00
2010 0.34- 0.69
Energy savings from peak load
1.75
management
Scenarios &
1.50
Strategies
Continuous commissioning of
to 2050
1.25 service sector loads
0.31- 0.62
1.00 0.00- 0.01 Accelerated deployment of
energy efficiency programs
0.75 0.01- 0.05
0.07- 0.27
Reduced line losses (voltage
0.50 control)
0.03- 0.25
0.25 Direct feedback on energy usage
0.09- 0.27
0.00
Direct reductions Enabled reductions
Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can
facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies,
such as renewables and electric vehicles.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

10. Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by
technology
ENERGY Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES 200 200
million sales/ yr
2010 180 180 Hydrogen fuel cell
Scenarios & 160 160 Hydrogen hybrid
Strategies 140 140 Electricity
to 2050
120 120 CNG and LPG
100 100 Plug-in hybrid diesel
80 80 Plug-in hybrid gasoline
60 60 Hybrid diesel
40 40 Hybrid gasoline
20 20 Diesel
0 Gasoline
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such
as plug-in hybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles,
dominate sales after 2030.
© OECD/IEA - 2010

11. Additional investment and fuel
savings, 2010-2050
ENERGY Commercial
Fuel savings
Total
Investment
TECHNOLOGY
Residential
PERSPECTIVES
Undiscounted
2010
10% discount
3% discount
Transport
60
USD trillion (2010-2050)
Scenarios & Industry
Strategies 40
to 2050 20 Power distribution
0 Power transmission
-20
Power generation
-40
-60 Biomass and waste
-80 Natural gas
-100
Oil
-120
Coal
-140
Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the
BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional
© OECD/IEA - 2010
investment required.

12. Key Technology Needs
 We will move toward ever more electrification,
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY and greater use of variable renewable power
PERSPECTIVES sources
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies  Need much smarter grid management and end use
to 2050
signals
 There are really only 3 potential zero carbon
energy carriers: electricity, hydrogen, biofuels
 Two of these face enormous challenges
 Coal‘s use in power generation and industry will
remain high for decades – we must make
progress on deploying CCS
© OECD/IEA - 2010

13. ETP 2012 Early release at CEM3
ENERGY Clean Energy Progress Report 2011
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Will be updated and improved in 2012
Featured as ETP 2012 early release
February 25-26 2011
© OECD/IEA - 2010

14. Technology roadmaps
• 12 Roadmaps and How to Guide
published
• Roadmaps provide answers:
– Where is the technology today?
– What is the deployment pathway needed?
– What are the priority near term actions?
• Next steps – 7 more roadmaps in 2012;
implementation: support national roadmap
development, track progress
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2012

15. Energy Technology Roadmaps
Regional & National level
1. How2Guide (H2G)
4. Roadmap development • Stakeholder engagement
ENERGY • Indirect support • Capture knowledge
TECHNOLOGY • Direct support • Develop the tools
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Tech-
Platform
Activities
3. Training 2. Dialogue workshops
• Bi-lateral • Disseminate H2G content
• Multi-lateral • International best practice
• Train The Trainer (T3) • Case studies
© OECD/IEA - 2010
© OECD/IEA 2012

16. ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
GLOBAL ENERGY R&D NETWORK
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
5,000 scientists, experts, researchers, consultants
Strategies
to 2050
500 universities, labs, government offices, companies,
consultants
Link public and private
Link IEA members and non-members
© OECD/IEA - 2010
©OECD/IEA 2011

17. ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Thank You
www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp
© OECD/IEA - 2010