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Latin America – India’s Agricultural Outsourcing Provider
- 1. Latin America – India’s Agricultural Outsourcing Provider Dave Ramaswamy Allied Venture [email_address]
- 2. The South is the new North
- 3. Impact on Food Consumption? Population projections (In millions) 2005 2025 2050 India 1130 1431 1613
- 4. Demand side – India will become a net food importer Source: WorldwatchInstitute.
- 5. Betting on billions of samosas eaten
- 6. World Population Growth, in Billions Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
- 7. India – Projected Supply/Demand Gap Source: Surabhi Mittal, ICRIER
- 8. When Supply side is gloomy…
- 9. With Falling water tables in N. India
- 10. From pumping 4-6 hrs daily with free electricity
- 11. Water bomb ready to go off
- 13. We’ve seen this movie before in urban India
- 14. Scenario will move to rural India
- 16. 6X size of India with Less than ½ the population Latin America Brazil Argentina Uruguay Paraguay
- 19. World Water Resources versus World Water Depletion Source: World Mapper
- 20. PAR: BRA: URU: ARG: IND: 56k 45k 40k 21k 2k Total Annual Renewable Water Resources(TARWR) Cu.MT/Year/Capita
- 23. Resting on a strong Foundation
- 24. Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay) share of world exports
- 25. Agribusiness in LatAm is like IT in India
- 26. Case Study: Olam
- 27. LatAm vs Africa Brazil Ethiopia
- 28. In Africa, risks of many ‘Singurs’ occuring Source: UN Population Database Population growth (in millions) - 2005 to 2050 2005 2025 2050 Argentina 39 46 51 Brazil 186 214 218 Uruguay 3 4 4 Paraguay 6 8 10 Ethiopia 75 120 174 Kenya 36 58 85 Tanzania 39 67 109 Madagascar 18 28 43 Mozambique 21 32 44 Senegal 57 91 133 Sudan 39 57 76
- 29. Also less water per capita compared to LatAm Source: Aquastat TARWR/ m3/percapita/year Argentina 20,940 Ethiopia 1,680 Brazil 45,470 Kenya 930 Uruguay 40,420 Tanzania 2,420 Paraguay 55,830 Madagascar 18,830 India 1,750 Mozambique 11,320 Sudan 1,880
- 30. Latin America is an immediate opportunity Latin America Africa Buy/Lease Land Yes No (lease only) Service Providers (planting/spraying etc.) Yes No Qualified Manpower Yes No Political Risk (low populations, democracies, corruption etc.) Low High Tested high yield crop/seed varieties Yes No
- 31. Almost “Free land” in Africa: Maintaing a gift elephant is not free Note: Numbers based on median Latin American land conversion rates to convert raw land to agriculture ready land. Africa figures could be higher/
- 32. Other Latin American advantages
- 36. Agricultural Land in MERCOSUR (in ‘000 hectares) Land area Agricultural area Arable land and Permanent crops POTENTIAL Argentina 273669 133350 33500 60,000 Brazil 845942 263500 66500 120,000 Paraguay 39730 20400 4400 8,000 Uruguay 17502 14683 1383 4,000 Total 1176843 431933 105783 192000
- 39. Contract Farming
- 40. Oilseed crushing
- 41. Biofuels Palm Oil Ethanol Co-generation
- 42. Pulses
- 43. Food Processing
- 44. Best time to plant a tree…was 20 yrs ago
- 45. Second best time is now!
- 47. www.alliedventure.com http://induslatin.com We are at your service!
Notas do Editor
- Will feed more people in next 40 years then all of history
- Will feed more people in next 40 years then all of history
- Land per capita is shrinking – 1 to 1.5 acres, 0.3 hectares Malincentives Farming is a terrible business – 45% want to quit farming, middle class nightmare Increasing cost of land - $20,000+ acre, 10 to 100 acres, illegal corp farming, land ceiling act
- Need some figures for this slide What is land per capita? Cost of average farm Water resources Can add 3 slides here – see the LatAm charts I sent out earlier.
- Climate Change – glaciers Damming the Brahmaputra Water table is falling – NASA image, water table
- 100 million hectares being farmed. 170-200 million hectares can be brought online Soya, - USDA projections Sugar, Oilseeds, Fruits, Dairy, Milk Grow the pie, not compete with Indian farmers, Non zero sum game
- Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay – plenty of arable land Closer to India than California Brazil – 3X India pop of U.P., Uttaranchal Argentina - ~India, pop of Delhi, Mumbai, Calcutta Uruguay - ~Karnataka, pop 1/2 Bangalore
- Rainfall Land - $200 to $2000 acre Technology Knowledge Creation Talent Free market
- US trained agronomists and agriculturists Collaboration with Indian scientists, especially in Africal South-South cooperation
- 10 to 30 times fresh water as India Mehta Joke, Water, play We could use all the water we can get
- Respected profession Specialized providers in the value chain – planting, spraying, harvesting, logistics, management company Ecosystem – universities, research, can compete with best in the world Scale massively Entrepreneur-driven Export driven and world-competitive without subsidies
- Respected profession Specialized providers in the value chain – planting, spraying, harvesting, logistics, management company Ecosystem – universities, research, can compete with best in the world Scale massively Entrepreneur-driven Export driven and world-competitive without subsidies
- Farmers selling land at high prices should utilize some of the sale proceeds to consider owning shares in a South American farming company that will acquire land and start farming Nestle, Danone, Cargill, Dreyfus, Kraft, Unilever Easier than you think it is.