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Indian Elections 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India: just for an idea ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
And the demography.. ,[object Object],[object Object]
What all this means… ,[object Object]
Glossary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2004: the results
2004: the magic numbers
2009: Why a Congress led government is unlikely to be repeated again this year The previous combination can get a maximum of  235 seats, almost 40 less than the majority mark…
2009: Why a BJP led government seems unlikely The old NDA combination can get a maximum of  245 seats, almost 30 less than the majority mark…
2009: where things stand as of today.. Mayawati looks set to take the center-stage…
National Elections: Local Factors ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2009:  Scenario 1 BSP leads with inside/outside support of Left+  and outside support of INC
2009:  Scenario 2 BSP leads with outside support of Left+  and outside support of BJP+
2009:  Scenario 3 SP OR NCP lead with inside/outside support of Left+  and outside support of INC or the BJP
2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult to get… NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..
2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get… NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..
2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get… Same rule applies on the INC camp..
This leads to a possible  Scenario 4 To keep BJP and BSP away, Congress could agree to this arrangement, where Left could give inside or outside support..
Scenario 4 This could make way for other dark horses..
What does this all mean for Business? As a result of being reliant on the Left parties, you should expect no movement in policies related to economic liberalisation
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[object Object]

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Presentation by Yashwant Deshmukh at Saffron Chase Briefing

  • 1.
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 7. 2004: the magic numbers
  • 8. 2009: Why a Congress led government is unlikely to be repeated again this year The previous combination can get a maximum of 235 seats, almost 40 less than the majority mark…
  • 9. 2009: Why a BJP led government seems unlikely The old NDA combination can get a maximum of 245 seats, almost 30 less than the majority mark…
  • 10. 2009: where things stand as of today.. Mayawati looks set to take the center-stage…
  • 11.
  • 12. 2009: Scenario 1 BSP leads with inside/outside support of Left+ and outside support of INC
  • 13. 2009: Scenario 2 BSP leads with outside support of Left+ and outside support of BJP+
  • 14. 2009: Scenario 3 SP OR NCP lead with inside/outside support of Left+ and outside support of INC or the BJP
  • 15. 2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult to get… NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..
  • 16. 2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get… NDA partners can’t leave the BJP camp..
  • 17. 2009: Scenario 3: Why this arithmetic would be difficult get… Same rule applies on the INC camp..
  • 18. This leads to a possible Scenario 4 To keep BJP and BSP away, Congress could agree to this arrangement, where Left could give inside or outside support..
  • 19. Scenario 4 This could make way for other dark horses..
  • 20. What does this all mean for Business? As a result of being reliant on the Left parties, you should expect no movement in policies related to economic liberalisation
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.