4. About the numbers you are about to see
8.9%
8
2.4
Friday, February 7, 14
$5.6B
4
5. The eMarketer process
• Reported revenues from major ad-selling companies;
• Data from “benchmark” sources, including quarterly reports from
the IAB & PwC;
• Estimates from primary research firms, investment banks,
independent analysts, agency forecast units;
• Consumer internet and mobile usage trends;
• Surveys among marketers, publishers, etc;
• eMarketer interviews with executives at ad agencies, brands,
publishers and other leaders
Friday, February 7, 14
5
8. Yes, total media spending will
continue to rise in 2014...
$187.3
63% of marketers plan to
cut spend on traditional
media in order to fund
digital efforts
If you strip
out digital,
1%
2007
Friday, February 7, 14
8
9. Digital will grow nearly 13% this year
%
0
4
27.0%
31.7%
US
of
are
sh
al $
git
di
Friday, February 7, 14
9
26. Time spent in hours: minutes
4:31
TV
(38%)
~1/2
2:21
5:16
Total
Digital
(45%)
Mobile
Friday, February 7, 14
26
27. Millward Brown and Dynamics
Logic
Nielsen
MAGNAGLOBAL
USC Annenberg School Center for the Digital Future
Gfk MRI
Experian Simmons
Donald W. Reynolds Journalism Institute (RJI) at the University of Missouri
Yankee Group
~1/2
Adobe/Keynote Systems
BabyCenter
Interactive Advertising Bureau
(IAB)
The Media Audit
Ipsos Mendelsohn
GroupM
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Syncapse
McKinsey & Company
Arbitron Mobile
Terra Networks and comScore
Chinet
Moosylvania
Deloitte
Frand N. Magid Associates
Credit Suisse
Barkley
Fleishman-Hillard
Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB)
Gfk
Interpret
Yahoo! and
Interpret
Temkin Group
Tremor Media
Google and Sterling Brands
Forrester Research
Council for Research Excellence
Hitwise Mobile
comScore
Online Publisher Association (OPA)
Edison Research
Nielsen and BabyCenter LLC
Zokem
The Diffusion Group
InMobi and Mobext
27
28. With mobile: being online has become a
persistent, anywhere state
Some of you have
Mobile users check
their that within the
done phones 100X daily
past 10 minutes
Source: Mobile Posse and Phoenix Marketing
International, 2013
Friday, February 7, 14
28
29. #4. Mobile is now ~20% of Web traffic and
search volume
40%
mobile
1/5
Sources:
Web traffic: comScore; StatCounter;
Adobe (pageviews), 2013;
Paid search click share on Google:
The Search Agency, 2013;
US search clicks: Kenshoo, 2013
Friday, February 7, 14
29
30. #5. Mobile commerce is exploding
m-commerce sales
(and as a % of total ecommerce)
$41.7 B
16%
2013
2.7X
$113.6 B
26%
2017
eMarketer, Sept, 2014
Friday, February 7, 14
30
31. Smartphone impact goes way beyond
direct sales
$15 B*
58% influenced by ads
$139 $159 B**
Sources:
*eMarketer, 2013;
**MMA; Deloitte Digital, 2013
Friday, February 7, 14
31
33. #6. Marketers are pumped for mobile
Survey: Most Exciting Digital Opportunities in 2013,
according to Companies Worldwide
0%
Content Marketing
Targeting & Personalization
Social Media Engagement
Mobile Optimization
% of US Marketers Planning to
Increase their Mobile Spend
15%
64%
67%
69%
70%
74%
79%
85%
......
......
......
......
......
......
......
30%
Advertiser Perceptions
Econsultancy 30%
Nielsen and Vizu
Ignition One
35%
IAB and Ovum
Technorati Media
35%
ANA
45%
43%
43% of B2B
marketers
Friday, February 7, 14
Source: Econsultancy and Adobe, Jan, 2013
33
34. #7. The tech titans are all going mobile
%
9
4
ide
ldw
or
w
Friday, February 7, 14
34
35. Net US Google display ad revenues
Desktop
$4
$3.70
Mobile
$2.88
$3
$2.33
$2
$2.18
$1.94
$1.24
$1
$0.66
$0.31
$0
2012
2013
2014
2015
eMarketer, December 2013
Friday, February 7, 14
35
36. % of advertising revenue coming
from mobile in Q4, 2013
53%
Friday, February 7, 14
72%
75%
36
37. #8. Social media is increasingly
becoming a mobile activity
69%
ep
xc
E
Friday, February 7, 14
on
ti
of social users
access social
networks on
their phones
37
38. US digital users spend 1:10 (hr:mins)
per day on social media
#2 activity,
after email*
29%
29%
19%
Source: eMarketer, 2013;
*Deloitte, Nov, 2013
Friday, February 7, 14
38
39. Ad spending on social networks is
also on the rise Social media = 12% of
total digital ad spend
Fueled partly by:
69%
Friday, February 7, 14
39
40. 67% of US internet users go to any
social network
CreditDonkey........... 44%
Broadcom................ 31%
InSites Consulting... 25%
Facebook
Reuters....................
Hub Research.......... 23% 26%
GlobalWebIndex....... 20%
Pew......................22%
22%
Pinterest*
17%
Instagram*
15%
Twitter
6%
Tumblr*
0%
Friday, February 7, 14
60%
comScore................. 19% 20%
Broadcom................
Pew........................... 18% 15%
Hub Research..........
Allstate Corp............ 16% 14%
GlobaWebIndex.......
eMarketer................. 15%
Epsilon...................... 8%
30%
60%
Source: eMarketer, 2013;
*Pew Internet & American Life, Dec, 2013
40
41. Video ad spending will continue to see
70% of senior ad-buying
double-digit growth
execs plan to move some of
their TV dollars to digital
––IAB, 2013
27%
of digital
display $s
???
= 1/5 of digital
video ad spend
Friday, February 7, 14
41
42. For each year (2014 - 2017), net additional TV
$s will exceed net additional digital video $s
In 2014...
$2.2
$68.5
6%
TV
Friday, February 7, 14
11%
$1.64
$5.8
Digital Video
42
43. Mobile
1. Improvements in mobile measurement––including
ability to integrate mobile and assign attribution
2. Advancement of Geo-targeting capabilities
“Exchanges, Trading Desks and
bidding for audiences recognizes that
3. Growth in Native Advertising movement––which is
marketers want to reach audiences,
rather than underwrite space.”
expanding rapidly in mobile, e.g., Facebook, Twitter,
––Rishad etc
BuzzFeed, Tobaccowala, Chairman of DigitasLBi and Razorfish
4. Programmatic buying is moving fast towards mobile
Friday, February 7, 14
43
44. Look for programmatic buying to rapidly
spread through mobile, social and video
US Digital Real-Time Bidding
Display Ad Spending (in billions)
85% of advertisers*
$9.0
72% of publishers**
$8.72
$6.64
% Growth
JMP....................... 50%
IDC....................... 49%
eMarketer........ 43%
JP Morgan............ 49%
$1.92
2012
$3.39
2013
$4.86
22%
28%
of display
spend $4.5
of display
spend
2014
$6.8
$2.3
2015
$0
2016
Sources: eMarketer, 2014;
*IAB and Winterberry Group, 2013;
**IAB; OPA, 2013
Friday, February 7, 14
44