"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Sherman Robinson, IFPRI, on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.

1. Foresight Studies of Global Food Security:
Model-Based, Long-Run Scenario Analysis
Sherman Robinson, IFPRI
Dirk Willenbockel, IDS
Partnering for Impact - Brussels, 25 November 2013
IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security

2. Long-Run Issues for the Global Food System
• Can we feed a world of 9+ billion people in 2050 and later?
• Can we do so sustainably in a world characterized by
increasing effects of climate change?
• Many studies, many using “scenario analysis” and long-run
models of the global agricultural system
• UK “Foresight Project” led by John Beddington, then UK
Chief Scientific Advisor
-> Upcoming JRC Foresight Global Food Security Study 2014:
Assessing trends in view of guiding future EU policies

3. Five Challenges
A
Balancing future agricultural demand
and supply sustainably
B
Addressing the threat of future
volatility in the food system
C
Ending Hunger
D
Meeting the challenges of a low
emissions world
E
E
Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world

4. Climate Change: Average temperatures could increase substantially
SRES scenario
differences small until
after 2050 (but GCM
differences big!)
Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)

5. Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050
CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm)

6. Climate Change: Average annual precipitation, 2000-2050
MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)

7. Conclusions from Scenario Analysis for the
Foresight Project and IFPRI Report
• 20th century steady decline in agricultural prices is over
• Sustainable economic growth is a powerful form of
climate change adaptation
• Agricultural productivity research output in hands of
farmers can reduce poverty and improve climate
change resilience
• Open international trade is essential for dealing with
uncertainties and asymmetric shocks
• Mitigation is critical
• Adaptation to 2050 is manageable, but less certain beyond

8. AgMIP: Model Comparison Project
10 global economic models focusing on
agriculture
General equilibrium models
Partial equilibrium models
AIM
NIES
GCAM
PNNL
ENVISAGE
FAO/WB
GLOBIOM
IIASA
EPPA
MIT
IMPACT
IFPRI
FARM
USDA
MAgPIE
PIK
GTEM
ABARES
CAPRI
IPTS
MAGNET
LEI-WUR
Nelson, G.C. et al (2013) Proceedings National Academy of Sciences USA (in press)
Special Issue Agricultural Economics 45(1), 2014 (in press)

9. Scenario Comparison
• Standardised scenarios and common protocol for reporting
• S1: Reference scenario harmonised on SSP2: (1) population growth, (2) real
GDP growth, and (3) agricultural productivity trends, all under “current”
climate.
• No changes in policy orientation
• Not designed to be realistic, but to provide a “benchmark” for model comparisons
• Variations to include uncertainties about major drivers
• S2: SSP3 (pessimistic economic and demographic drivers)
• S3-S6: Climate Change scenarios (RCP8.5 based on two GCMs and two crop models)
• S7-S8: Bioenergy (S7: no 2nd generation biofuels; S8: 2nd generation biofuels)
• Key issues concern the future of agricultural prices, land use, food
availability, and international trade

10. Reference Scenario: World Market Prices 2050
(2005 = 1)
2.2
1.4
AGR
WHT
CGR
RIC
RUM
1.3
Price index (2005** = 1)
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
General Equilibrium Models
Partial Equilibrium Models
0.6
AIM
ENVISAGE
EPPA
FARM
** trended 2005, i.e. hypothetical in the absence of short-term shocks
GTEM
MAGNET
GCAM
GLOBIOM
IMPACT
MAgPIE

11. Key Findings - Reference Scenario
• Results continue to differ across models, despite significant
efforts on harmonization of assumptions about drivers
• Ag Price index +40% to -15% relative to global GDP deflator
• Qualitatively similar—20th century declines in prices will not continue in the 21st
century
• Global crop area +25% to -5%
• Range is narrower than comparisons at the beginning of the
project
• Comparison process helped to improve models
• Some convergence through dialogue across teams
• Variability small relative to comparison with past
• Real agricultural price index between 1960s and 2000s: -4% p.a. –
Projections to 2050: -0.4% to +0.7% p.a.

12. Key Findings - Reference Scenario
• Selected results largely common across models
• Global expansion of agricultural production, stronger for
sugar, oilseeds, ruminant meat, weaker for staples like
wheat, rice
• Strong consumption growth in Africa, Middle-East
• Strong production growth in Africa, Latin America
• Expanding net import requirements in MENA
• Expanding crop exports from North America, Oceania
• Expanding meat exports from Brazil

13. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Prices
(Relative to reference scenario, 2050)
80.0
S3
S4
S5
S6
% change relative to Reference Scenario S1
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
AIM
ENVISAGE
FARM
GTEM
MAGNET
GCAM
GLOBIOM
IMPACT
MAgPIE
CAPRI

14. Knowledge Gaps: Priorities for Future Research
• Representation of endogenous technical change in agriculture
• How elastic is productivity in response to price changes and R&D?
• Representation of land use change
• How elastic is ag land supply? How costly is land conversion?
• Representation of Demand
• How elastic is demand in response to income and price changes
• Need for parallel progress in empirical research
• Role of continued dialogue across disciplines and modelling teams