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From G20 France to G20 Mexico


        Maximo Torero
       m.torero@cgiar.org
      Food Security and the G20, IFPRI
       1st of May 2012, Washington DC
FAO Food Price Index




Averaged 216 points in March 2012, very similar to February (215) points and nearly
2 percent (5 points) up from December. The rebound represented the first upturn in
the FFPI since July 2011 but the index remained 7 percent below its corresponding
value last year.
Historical Evolution of Corn Prices
Periods of Excessive Volatility
                                                                             160


                                                                             140
                              Number of days of excessive price volatility
                                                                             120


                                                                             100


                                                                              80


                                                                              60


                                                                              40


                                                                              20


                                                                               0
                                                                                   2001   2002   2003    2004   2005    2006 2007 2008    2009   2010   2011
                                                                                                                        Year
                                                                                                        Corn    Soft Wheat   Hard Wheat
Note: This figure shows the results of a model of the dynamic evolution of daily returns based on historical data going back to 1954 (known as the Nonparametric
Extreme Quantile (NEXQ) Model). This model is then combined with extreme value theory to estimate higher-order quantiles of the return series, allowing for classification
of any particular realized return (that is, effective return in the futures market) as extremely high or not. A period of time characterized by extreme price variation
(volatility) is a period of time in which we observe a large number of extreme positive returns. An extreme positive return is defined to be a return that exceeds a certain
preestablished threshold. This threshold is taken to be a high order (95%) conditional quantile, (i.e. a value of return that is exceeded with low probability: 5 %). One or
two such returns do not necessarily indicate a period of excessive volatility. Periods of excessive volatility are identified based a statistical test applied to the number of
times the extreme value occurs in a window of consecutive 60 days.

Source: Martins-Filho, Torero, and Yao 2010. See details at http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/soft-wheat-price-volatility-alert-mechanism                      .
Recommendations in the G20 of France
                     and reported in the G20-Mexico

Initiative                Key objective                                Progress

Agricultural Market       Has three objectives: 1) to improve the      AMIS secretariat is
Information System        information base and disseminate             established, portal is
(AMIS):                   information in a transparent manner; 2)      working and will be
                          to develop the capacity to produce           officially launched in
                          detailed commodity market data; and          June. G20 countries +
                          3) to facilitate policy dialogue and         7 key importers and
                          coordination in the event of a serious       exporters have to
                          crisis in commodity markets                  deliver data.



Rapid Response            Definition of indicators that could led to   First meeting in April
Forum (RRF)               an “abnormal international market            2012, in process of
                          condition” and the procedures that RRF       defining indicators of
                          could adopt to cope with this condition      “abnormal
                                                                       international market
                                                                       conditions”
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Recommendations in the G20 of France
                     and reported in the G20-Mexico

Initiative               Key objective                              Progress
International            Aims to identify synergies and nurture     Launched in
Research Initiative      collaborations via facilitated open        September 2011
for Wheat                communications between research            Global action plan is
Improvement              programs for wheat improvement,            developed by CGIAR
(IRIWI)                  research and technology development.       and a business plan


The Global               It aims to strengthen the international    Launched and a is
Agriculture GEO-         community’s capacity to produce and        headed by the Group
Monitoring Initiative    disseminate relevant, timely and           on Earth Observation
                         accurate forecasts of agricultural         which developed a
                         production at national, regional and       detail work plan
                         global scales, by enhancing national and
                         agricultural reporting systems.

The Tropical             focuses on enhancing capacity-building     Consultation process
Agriculture Platform     and knowledge sharing to improve           with stakeholders to
(TAP)                    agricultural production and productivity   define scope and
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
                                                                    nature of activity
Recommendations in the G20 of France
                    and reported in the G20-Mexico

Initiative                   Key objective                     Progress
Food Purchases for           Removal of food export            Still need to seek
Humanitarian Non-            restrictions or extraordinary     resolution from WTO
commercial Purposes by       taxes for food purchased for
the World Food Program       non-commercial humanitarian
(WFP).                       purposes by WFP
Regional Emergency           ECOWAS pilot project in process   ECOWAS task force to
Humanitarian Food            of implementation                 develop operational plan.
Reserves                                                       Process is very slow.

Voluntary Guidelines on      Guidelines approved by the CFS    Pending country level
Governance of Tenure of                                        implementation of
Land, Fisheries and                                            guidelines
Forests in the Context of
National Food Security
Principles for Responsible Pilot Projects of the PRAI by       Pilot project summary
Agricultural Investment          CFS. Launched in Feb. 2012    report will be in
        INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
(PRAI)                                                         September 2012
What was recommended in the G20 of
                 France and reported in the G20-Mexico

Initiative                      Key objective                     Progress
Risk management tools           IFC has developed some        APRM launched but still
                                tools to help developing      needs validation, no clear
                                countries to cope with price progress in other tools.
                                volatility for agricultural
                                commodities, such as the
                                Agricultural Price Risk
                                Management (APRM) +
                                Platform on Agricultural Risk
                                Management (PARM)
Financial Regulations             Principles for the Regulation   Individual countries have
                                  and Supervision of              started some regulations.
                                  Commodities Derivatives         Progress report to be
                                  Markets by the G20              presented by IOSCO in
                                  Leader’s in Cannes, the         November 2012
                                  International Organization
                                  of Securities Commission
                                  (IOSCO) will assess their
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
                                  implementation
New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20-
                    Mexico



     Core goal increase food
production and productivity in a
  sustainable basis to promote
 food security and foster economic
               growth


 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
High levels of market concentration
Figure 1. Compound annual growth rates in world crop yields (%)




                   Compound Annual Growth Rates in
                          World Crop Yields
    • The average global
      rates of growth in
      yield of most of the
Source: FAOSTAT.
      major cereals are
      declining.
    • Since the 1980s,
      growth in wheat
      and rice yields fell
      from 2.5- 3% to
      around 1%. Maize
      yields showed
      growth of slightly                                    Source: FAOSTAT
      less than 2% over
      the last decade
Figure 1. Compound annual growth rates in world crop yields (%)




           Trends in food and agricultural public
                        expenditures
• Public R&D expenditures on
                                                                                             4,500
       agriculture in low-and middle
                                                                                             4,000
       income countries are




                                                                  Million 2005 PPP dollars
                                                                                             3,500
       generally lower as a % of Ag.
Source: FAOSTAT.                                                                             3,000
       GDP than in OECD                                                                      2,500
       countries.                                                                            2,000
• In East Asia and the Pacific,                                                              1,500

       China accounted for about                                                             1,000
                                                                                              500
       two-thirds of total public
                                                                                                0
       agricultural R&D                                                                              1981        1986         1991   1996           2001          2006
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, after                                                                         Sub-Saharan Africa                   East Asia & Pacific, minus China
       a decade of stagnation in the                                                                   China                                South Asia, minus India
       1990s, investment in
                                                                                                       Latin America & Caribbean            India
       agricultural research rose
       more than 20% between
                                                                        Source: ASTI
       2001 and 2008 but mainly in
       few countries
New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20-
                           Mexico

Initiative                                            Key objective
Increase agricultural productivity                    - Invest in sustainable approached to
                                                        productivity growth
                                                      - Supporting improving agricultural and
                                                        rural statistics in public and private
                                                        investment in agricultural productivity



Improving trade policies                              - Sstrengthen international disciplines on
                                                        all forms of import and export
                                                        restrictions, as well as on domestic
                                                        support schemes that distort production
                                                        incentives
                                                      - Promote greater adherence to the
                                                        science-based sanitary and
                                                        phytosanitary measures developed by
                                                        the FAO/WHO Codex Alimentarius
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE     Commission and capacity building
What is happening today
Secondary responses: An illustration with the wheat market:
     Effects on world prices of trade policy reactions for
                     selected countries



                                                      Exogenous demand increase [initial
                         Policy Effects               perturbation]


                                                      Effects of increases in export taxes
                                                      to mitigate the shock on domestic
       “Natural”
                                                      prices
        Shock
                                                      Effects of decrease in import duties
                                                      to mitigate the shock on domestic
                                                      prices

                                                      Interaction effects between import
                                                      and export restrictions


0%                 10%               20%

Source: Bouet and Laborde, 2009. MIRAGE simulations
New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20-
                           Mexico

Initiative                                            Key objective
Promote Public Private partnership                    - Work with B20 to assess the potential of
for investment in agriculture                           various public-private partnership
                                                        models to increase foreign direct
                                                        investment in developing country
                                                        agriculture and,
                                                      - promote and scale-up appropriate
                                                        partnership models in developing
                                                        countries’ agriculture
Improve investments in agricultural                   - Continue to support G20-Paris initiatives
innovation systems                                    - Increase policy dialogue on AIS at a
                                                        high level
                                                      - Support the Agricultural Science and
                                                        Technology Indicators (ASTI) initiative
                                                        to a) collect and maintain a
                                                        comprehensive database on
                                                        expenditures on agricultural innovation;
                                                        b) develop tools and methods to assess
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
                                                        the performance and impact of
New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20-
                           Mexico

Initiative                                            Key objective
Improving information, access and                     - Support developing countries to
IPR systems on plant and animal                         establish and enforce IPR systems
genetic resources                                       consistent with international obligations
                                                      - Support development and promotion of
                                                        a global information system on plant
                                                        and animal genetic resources and
                                                        making information available through a
                                                        common portal such as “Genesys”
Improve investments in agricultural                   - Continue to support G20-Paris initiatives
innovation systems                                    - Increase policy dialogue on AIS at a
                                                        high level
                                                      - Support the Agricultural Science and
                                                        Technology Indicators (ASTI) initiative
                                                        to a) collect and maintain a
                                                        comprehensive database on
                                                        expenditures on agricultural innovation;
                                                        b) develop tools and methods to assess
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
                                                        the performance and impact of
New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20-
                           Mexico

Initiative                                            Key objective
On Water                                              - Recognizing the importance to improve
                                                        the efficiency of water use in agriculture
                                                        and to safeguard the quality of water
                                                      - Continue dialogue based on the
                                                        recommendations concerning food
                                                        security and water made by Ministers in
                                                        their Declaration at the World Water
                                                        Forum
Sustainable use of natural resources                  - Review policies that could have perverse
within the short-term imperatives of                    incentives for sustainability
ensuring food security                                - Support design of policies that do a
                                                        comprehensive analysis of the
                                                        relationship between food security, food
                                                        production and natural resources
                                                      - Increase monitoring and evaluation of
                                                        systems of “market-smart” smallholder
                                                        targeted subsidies
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
                                                      - Analyze mechanisms to increase
Distribution of World Fertilizer
  Production capacity by country




Note: Based on capacity of operative plants in 2008/09.
Data: IFDC Worldwide Fertilizer Capacity Listing by Plant.
Source: Hernandez, M and Torero, M (2012)
Impact on fertilizer intake, crop production and
rural income of a 10% decrease in concentration
                              18.8
        20
        18
                    13.3
        16
        14
        12
        10
    %




         8                                            4.7
         6                                    3.3
                                                                     1.0     1.9
         4
         2
         0
              Increase in fertilizer   Increase in crop       Increase in rural
                      use                production               income

                      Conservative scenario         Optimistic scenario


 Source: Hernandez, M and Torero, M (2012), ), Gruhn et al. (1995) and Bumb et al. (2011).
New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20-
                           Mexico

Initiative                                            Key objective
On Risk management                                    - Platform for Agricultural risk
                                                        management
                                                      - Global Index Insurance Facility
                                                      - Weather info for All initiative
                                                      - Improve historical and current
                                                        meteorological information to facilitate
                                                        development of weather insurance

On Human Capital Development                          - Support the continued provision of
                                                        targeted, well-designed and gender-
                                                        sensitive social protection programs
                                                      - Explicit integration of agricultural
                                                        education and of the sustainable
                                                        agriculture intensification agenda
                                                      - Bridge gender productivity gaps in
                                                        agriculture (both access to resources
                                                        and technology)
       INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   - Promote the Women Empowerment
Final comments

 Invest in agricultural research and development to
  improve world portfolio of exporting countries

 Improve information to better prioritize needed
  investment to increase agriculture productivity in a
  sustainable basis
 Enable environment to the increase of private and public
  & private investment
 We need to increase food production and productivity in
  a sustainable basis Competition in the input markets is
  needed
 Better information to improve risk coping mechanisms is
  needed
Thanks

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IFPRI Oxfam America Policy Roundtable -- Maximo Torero

  • 1. From G20 France to G20 Mexico Maximo Torero m.torero@cgiar.org Food Security and the G20, IFPRI 1st of May 2012, Washington DC
  • 2. FAO Food Price Index Averaged 216 points in March 2012, very similar to February (215) points and nearly 2 percent (5 points) up from December. The rebound represented the first upturn in the FFPI since July 2011 but the index remained 7 percent below its corresponding value last year.
  • 4. Periods of Excessive Volatility 160 140 Number of days of excessive price volatility 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Corn Soft Wheat Hard Wheat Note: This figure shows the results of a model of the dynamic evolution of daily returns based on historical data going back to 1954 (known as the Nonparametric Extreme Quantile (NEXQ) Model). This model is then combined with extreme value theory to estimate higher-order quantiles of the return series, allowing for classification of any particular realized return (that is, effective return in the futures market) as extremely high or not. A period of time characterized by extreme price variation (volatility) is a period of time in which we observe a large number of extreme positive returns. An extreme positive return is defined to be a return that exceeds a certain preestablished threshold. This threshold is taken to be a high order (95%) conditional quantile, (i.e. a value of return that is exceeded with low probability: 5 %). One or two such returns do not necessarily indicate a period of excessive volatility. Periods of excessive volatility are identified based a statistical test applied to the number of times the extreme value occurs in a window of consecutive 60 days. Source: Martins-Filho, Torero, and Yao 2010. See details at http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/soft-wheat-price-volatility-alert-mechanism .
  • 5. Recommendations in the G20 of France and reported in the G20-Mexico Initiative Key objective Progress Agricultural Market Has three objectives: 1) to improve the AMIS secretariat is Information System information base and disseminate established, portal is (AMIS): information in a transparent manner; 2) working and will be to develop the capacity to produce officially launched in detailed commodity market data; and June. G20 countries + 3) to facilitate policy dialogue and 7 key importers and coordination in the event of a serious exporters have to crisis in commodity markets deliver data. Rapid Response Definition of indicators that could led to First meeting in April Forum (RRF) an “abnormal international market 2012, in process of condition” and the procedures that RRF defining indicators of could adopt to cope with this condition “abnormal international market conditions” INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 6. Recommendations in the G20 of France and reported in the G20-Mexico Initiative Key objective Progress International Aims to identify synergies and nurture Launched in Research Initiative collaborations via facilitated open September 2011 for Wheat communications between research Global action plan is Improvement programs for wheat improvement, developed by CGIAR (IRIWI) research and technology development. and a business plan The Global It aims to strengthen the international Launched and a is Agriculture GEO- community’s capacity to produce and headed by the Group Monitoring Initiative disseminate relevant, timely and on Earth Observation accurate forecasts of agricultural which developed a production at national, regional and detail work plan global scales, by enhancing national and agricultural reporting systems. The Tropical focuses on enhancing capacity-building Consultation process Agriculture Platform and knowledge sharing to improve with stakeholders to (TAP) agricultural production and productivity define scope and INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE nature of activity
  • 7. Recommendations in the G20 of France and reported in the G20-Mexico Initiative Key objective Progress Food Purchases for Removal of food export Still need to seek Humanitarian Non- restrictions or extraordinary resolution from WTO commercial Purposes by taxes for food purchased for the World Food Program non-commercial humanitarian (WFP). purposes by WFP Regional Emergency ECOWAS pilot project in process ECOWAS task force to Humanitarian Food of implementation develop operational plan. Reserves Process is very slow. Voluntary Guidelines on Guidelines approved by the CFS Pending country level Governance of Tenure of implementation of Land, Fisheries and guidelines Forests in the Context of National Food Security Principles for Responsible Pilot Projects of the PRAI by Pilot project summary Agricultural Investment CFS. Launched in Feb. 2012 report will be in INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (PRAI) September 2012
  • 8. What was recommended in the G20 of France and reported in the G20-Mexico Initiative Key objective Progress Risk management tools IFC has developed some APRM launched but still tools to help developing needs validation, no clear countries to cope with price progress in other tools. volatility for agricultural commodities, such as the Agricultural Price Risk Management (APRM) + Platform on Agricultural Risk Management (PARM) Financial Regulations Principles for the Regulation Individual countries have and Supervision of started some regulations. Commodities Derivatives Progress report to be Markets by the G20 presented by IOSCO in Leader’s in Cannes, the November 2012 International Organization of Securities Commission (IOSCO) will assess their INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE implementation
  • 9. New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20- Mexico Core goal increase food production and productivity in a sustainable basis to promote food security and foster economic growth INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  • 10. High levels of market concentration
  • 11. Figure 1. Compound annual growth rates in world crop yields (%) Compound Annual Growth Rates in World Crop Yields • The average global rates of growth in yield of most of the Source: FAOSTAT. major cereals are declining. • Since the 1980s, growth in wheat and rice yields fell from 2.5- 3% to around 1%. Maize yields showed growth of slightly Source: FAOSTAT less than 2% over the last decade
  • 12. Figure 1. Compound annual growth rates in world crop yields (%) Trends in food and agricultural public expenditures • Public R&D expenditures on 4,500 agriculture in low-and middle 4,000 income countries are Million 2005 PPP dollars 3,500 generally lower as a % of Ag. Source: FAOSTAT. 3,000 GDP than in OECD 2,500 countries. 2,000 • In East Asia and the Pacific, 1,500 China accounted for about 1,000 500 two-thirds of total public 0 agricultural R&D 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 • In Sub-Saharan Africa, after Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific, minus China a decade of stagnation in the China South Asia, minus India 1990s, investment in Latin America & Caribbean India agricultural research rose more than 20% between Source: ASTI 2001 and 2008 but mainly in few countries
  • 13. New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20- Mexico Initiative Key objective Increase agricultural productivity - Invest in sustainable approached to productivity growth - Supporting improving agricultural and rural statistics in public and private investment in agricultural productivity Improving trade policies - Sstrengthen international disciplines on all forms of import and export restrictions, as well as on domestic support schemes that distort production incentives - Promote greater adherence to the science-based sanitary and phytosanitary measures developed by the FAO/WHO Codex Alimentarius INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Commission and capacity building
  • 15. Secondary responses: An illustration with the wheat market: Effects on world prices of trade policy reactions for selected countries Exogenous demand increase [initial Policy Effects perturbation] Effects of increases in export taxes to mitigate the shock on domestic “Natural” prices Shock Effects of decrease in import duties to mitigate the shock on domestic prices Interaction effects between import and export restrictions 0% 10% 20% Source: Bouet and Laborde, 2009. MIRAGE simulations
  • 16. New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20- Mexico Initiative Key objective Promote Public Private partnership - Work with B20 to assess the potential of for investment in agriculture various public-private partnership models to increase foreign direct investment in developing country agriculture and, - promote and scale-up appropriate partnership models in developing countries’ agriculture Improve investments in agricultural - Continue to support G20-Paris initiatives innovation systems - Increase policy dialogue on AIS at a high level - Support the Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) initiative to a) collect and maintain a comprehensive database on expenditures on agricultural innovation; b) develop tools and methods to assess INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE the performance and impact of
  • 17. New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20- Mexico Initiative Key objective Improving information, access and - Support developing countries to IPR systems on plant and animal establish and enforce IPR systems genetic resources consistent with international obligations - Support development and promotion of a global information system on plant and animal genetic resources and making information available through a common portal such as “Genesys” Improve investments in agricultural - Continue to support G20-Paris initiatives innovation systems - Increase policy dialogue on AIS at a high level - Support the Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) initiative to a) collect and maintain a comprehensive database on expenditures on agricultural innovation; b) develop tools and methods to assess INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE the performance and impact of
  • 18. New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20- Mexico Initiative Key objective On Water - Recognizing the importance to improve the efficiency of water use in agriculture and to safeguard the quality of water - Continue dialogue based on the recommendations concerning food security and water made by Ministers in their Declaration at the World Water Forum Sustainable use of natural resources - Review policies that could have perverse within the short-term imperatives of incentives for sustainability ensuring food security - Support design of policies that do a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between food security, food production and natural resources - Increase monitoring and evaluation of systems of “market-smart” smallholder targeted subsidies INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE - Analyze mechanisms to increase
  • 19. Distribution of World Fertilizer Production capacity by country Note: Based on capacity of operative plants in 2008/09. Data: IFDC Worldwide Fertilizer Capacity Listing by Plant. Source: Hernandez, M and Torero, M (2012)
  • 20. Impact on fertilizer intake, crop production and rural income of a 10% decrease in concentration 18.8 20 18 13.3 16 14 12 10 % 8 4.7 6 3.3 1.0 1.9 4 2 0 Increase in fertilizer Increase in crop Increase in rural use production income Conservative scenario Optimistic scenario Source: Hernandez, M and Torero, M (2012), ), Gruhn et al. (1995) and Bumb et al. (2011).
  • 21. New Recommendations of IO’s to the G20- Mexico Initiative Key objective On Risk management - Platform for Agricultural risk management - Global Index Insurance Facility - Weather info for All initiative - Improve historical and current meteorological information to facilitate development of weather insurance On Human Capital Development - Support the continued provision of targeted, well-designed and gender- sensitive social protection programs - Explicit integration of agricultural education and of the sustainable agriculture intensification agenda - Bridge gender productivity gaps in agriculture (both access to resources and technology) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE - Promote the Women Empowerment
  • 22. Final comments  Invest in agricultural research and development to improve world portfolio of exporting countries  Improve information to better prioritize needed investment to increase agriculture productivity in a sustainable basis  Enable environment to the increase of private and public & private investment  We need to increase food production and productivity in a sustainable basis Competition in the input markets is needed  Better information to improve risk coping mechanisms is needed