"Adopting Promising Agricultural Technologies: The Role of Policies and Trade" by Guillaume Gruere, Trade and Agriculture Directorate Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Presented at the Food Security in a World of Growing Natural Resource Scarcity event hosted by IFPRI on February 12, 2014 at the Newseum.

1. ADOPTING PROMISING AGRICULTURAL
TECHNOLOGIES: THE ROLE OF POLICIES
AND TRADE
Guillaume GRUERE
Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
IFPRI Technology Summit, Washington DC
February 12, 2014

2. • A major modelling effort
– Global simulations with 4 types of models*3crops*11
technologies*2 climate scenarios…
• Leading to interesting and useful results
– Prioritization of technologies by crop, yield and food security
potentials disaggregated by region
1. IFPRI report

3. IMPACT results 2050: cumulative yield
effects relative to the Baseline
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Developing countries
wheat
rice
maize
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Developed countries
• Relative rankings vary by crop, technology and region.
• Still 4 technologies seem to lead in yield potential: N use
efficiency, heat tolerance, no till and precision agriculture.
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)

4. • Modelling side
– Tools and baseline scenario
• Resource focus could be more emphasized
– Analysing productivity with respect to multiple resources
• Climate change mitigation potential
• Moving to implementation
– Adoption and acceptance
– Role of policies and the private sector
A basis for further work?

5. 2. Implications for OECD countries
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Cumulative yield effects
Europe Developed
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Cumulative yield effects
North America
wheat
rice
maize
• Priority technological options for adaptation:
• North America: Heat tolerance in maize, no till in wheat and maize
• Europe: Precision agriculture, heat tolerance and no till in wheat
• Nitrogen use efficiency for three crops and two regions.
• What role for government to pursue these options?
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)

6. Public policy and climate change adaptation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Number of OECD countries (out of 34) with specific
adaptation policies in agriculture
Member states Member states accounting for EU policies
Source: Ongoing work.

7. In the case of identified top technologies:
Farmers
GovernmentsCompanies
No till
Heat
tolerance
N use
efficiency
Precision
agriculture
 Potentially limited direct role of OECD governments
 But indirect role in supporting an enabling environment for
innovation, development, adoption and use, in particular via :
 Science and technology policies, agriculture policies, trade policies

8. • Free(er) trade allows :
3. The role of international trade
Heat tolerance Competition
Spill over of
knowledge
Open markets for
inputs and outputs
No till
N use efficiency
Precision
agriculture
Precision
agriculture
No till
Country A Country B

9. Three key challenges:
1. Increase exchanges of ideas, research and cooperation
2. Removing distortions to input and output markets
3. Coping with regulatory divergences
What does it mean for the selected
technologies?

10. Thank you!
Contact information:
guillaume.gruere@oecd.org