Presentation by Stefan Tangermann (University of Gottingen, Germany) at Policy Seminar on "A Post-Bali Food Security Agenda," May 6, 2104 in Washington, DC.
E15 Initiative: Strengthening the multilateral trading system
1.
2. 2
IPC
New challenges: Markets
• food markets: from
demand constrained to
supply constrained
• rapid expansion of
bioenergy
• dramatic price volatility
• growing market share of
developing countries
• climate change impacts
on food production
Share of non-LDC developing countries in world trade
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100
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700
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1973
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1981
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2021
US$/ton Wheat price in international trade, in 2005 prices
3. 3
IPC
New challenges: Policies
• changes in agricultural
policy regimes
• growing interest in
policies addressing
climate change and
environment
• experiences with
implementing AoA
• spread of RTAs
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
%points change PSE Change 1995-97 to 2010-12
4. 4
IPC
Implications for priorities
• Growing scarcity requires well functioning markets,
progress in Doha Round urgently needed
• Attention needed to burden on food consumers
(in addition to constraining producer support in WTO)
• Improving food security in poor countries
... demonstrates to developing countries what
trade regime can do for them (DDA)
• Report suggests action, for shorter and longer term
5. 5
IPC
Policy Action Proposed (1)
Export restrictions
• more transparency, consultations
• procedure to identify legitimate reasons to restrict
exports “to prevent or relieve critical shortages of
foodstuffs”
• food aid for countries in emergency exempted
from export restrictions
• constraints on export taxes
6. 6
IPC
Policy Action Proposed (2)
Biofuels
• Rules for reporting support to production and
consumption of biofuels
• Constraints on biofuel support levels
Green Box
• emphasise policies not distorting production/trade
• focus on public goods
• eligibility only after notification, with detail
7. 7
IPC
Policy Action Proposed (3)
International co-operation and assistance
• improve market transparency
• small, targeted emergency reserves
• social safety nets
• improve productivity
in agriculture,
infrastructure
• assistance to
agriculture must not
decline again
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1967
1969
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1981
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Share of agriculture, forestry, fisheries in total ODA
8. 8
IPC
Policy Action Proposed (4)
A new instrument of financial solidarity
between
– support for farmers in well-off countries, and
– measures to improve food security in poor countries
• developed and emerging countries contribute
relative to their farm support: yardstick could be
overall trade-distorting support (OTDS)
[for info: 1% of OTDS ≈ US$ 2 billion
≈ ¼ of ODA to agriculture]
• funds are used to improve food security in
countries meeting agreed quantifiable criteria
9. 9
IPC
Conclusions
• World agriculture and food system faces new
challenges
• Improving food security is crucial
• Importance of Doha negotiations on agriculture
has become even more obvious
• There are several policy actions that can respond
to the new challenges
... and demonstrate to developing countries what
the trade regime can do for them