Sohail Jehangir Malik, Chairman, Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd 12th August, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington D.C.

1. A Crisis within the Crises in Pakistan
The IDPs of Swat and Buner Districts
IFPRI Panel Discussion
Sohail Jehangir Malik
Chairman
Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd
August 12, 2009

2. Area and population of Swat and Buner
Swat Buner
Area (sq km) 5337 1865
Population ‘000’ (2004-05) 1577 656

3. May 2009
1. Armed Taliban back on 8. Taliban ‘shaving beards’ to
Mingora Swat roads as the flee Swat
TNSM rejects Darul Qaza 9. IDPs swell to over 1.4m: UN.
2. Taliban slap ‘curfew’, blow
p , 10. Thousands flee as curfew
up schools relaxed
3. Taliban in control of 90% of 11. Pakistan facing one of
Swat’. world’s worst displacement
4. PM orders all-out war, tells
, crises: UN.
army to eliminate Taliban
l lb 12. Troops fight Taliban on
once and for all. Swat streets
5. Operation Rah-e-Rast is 13. UN issues $543m appeal for
launched IDPs .
6. Thousands flee Swat
h d fl 14. MQM wants ban on IDPs’
7. NWFP govt. seeks global entry into Sindh.
emergency aid for IDPs

4. May 2009 (contd.)
15. “IDPs leaving NWFP won’t 20. UN pleads for more cash for
get aid” Rahman Malik Min Swat displaced.
for Interior. 21. IDPs selling relief goods in
16. IDPs complain of not Peshawar .
h
receiving int’l and US aid. 22. IDPs protest closure of food
17. 6,000 pregnant women in distribution points.
camps.
18. IDPs exceed 2.9million - NA
committee told.
19. ICRC suspends aid activities
d id ti iti
in Swat .

5. June 2009
23. UN awaits Govt nods for 32. About 15,000 IDPs have come
relief work i B
li f k in Buner. to karachi says Sindh CM
karachi, CM.
24. Trapped residents emerge, 33. IDPs being registered on war
seek food in Swat. footing.
25. NWFP to engage NADRA, 34. Jeay Sindh protest against
UNHCR for the registration of influx of IDP
IDPs. 35. US warns against diseases
26. UN chief warns of severe outbreak in IDPs.
crisis due to funding shortage. 36. Govt urged to devise
27.
27 IDPs number distorted by rehabilitation plan for
p
duplication in registeration displaced f
di l d farmers..
28. Holbroke assures full help in 37. IDPs registration temporarily
reconstruction phase. stopped.
29. US offers to increase IDPs aid 38. Only 25% of estimated aid for
by $200m
b $ IDPs received: UN
30. Food shortage worsening in 39. IDPs being registered on war
restive Malakand areas. footing.
31. 2.5 million IDPs expected to 40. Displaced persons face
remain i camps i 2009
i in in 2009. discrimination at IDP camps

9. Only 1.96 million of 4.61 million registered
IDPs Eligible on July 11, 2009
g J y ,
Total w ith CNIC not available ,
0.17
Total w ith multiple
registerations, 1.46
registerations 1 46
Total Eligible, 1.97
Total w ith CNIC Invalid, 0.29
p
Total w ith Multiple
Total w ith duplicate w ithin identities/aliens, 0.01
families , 0.45
Total from outside affected
areas , 0.27

10. Only a Small Proportion of IDPs
were i C
in Camps on July 11 2009
J l 11,
In Camps
9%
Off-Camp
Off Camp
91%

13. p
Crops pp
What happened
 Wheat  Not harvested
 Vegetables  Not harvested
 Tobacco  Not harvested
 Maize  Cannot Plant
 Ri
Rice  C
Cannot Pl
Plant
 Sugarcane  Cannot Plant
Horticulture
 Fruits/orchards  Not Harvested
Livestock  Lost, Killed,

14.  Marble/China Clay  Closed down – no power!
 Gemstones  No market – high risk
 Forest and Timber  No permissions – high risk
Products
 Household Crafts  No resources – no market

16.  Forced Repatriation
 y y
Increased Physical Insecurity
 Strict Government Approvals required to function
– outsiders NOT permitted easily - Restrictions on
local activities
 Poor or No Infrastructure
 Electricity for eight to ten hours only
y g y
 No landline telephone and only UFONE cellular in some
places
 Virtually non functioning health, sanitation and
y g ,
education system
 Ill functioning or closed markets
 Inadequate and ill designed relief mechanisms -
95,462 IDPs families provided with Rs. 25,000
ATM Relief Cards

20. A 2008 Asian Development Bank
Study of 32 Asian Countries
ranked Pakistan 2nd last in terms
of a composite S i l Protection
f it Social P t ti
Index

21. 45 41 41
40 38
37 36
Poverty headcoun (%)
35 32 33
30 30 29 30
28
nt
30 26
25 22 22
20
y
15
10
5
0
Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Pakistan
1998-99 2000-01 2004-05
Source: World Bank

22. “Currently 77 million people, almost half the
population, is food insecure in Pakistan - daily
calorie intake below th minimum recommended
l i i t k b l the i i d d
level”
-Report of the Prime Minister’s Task Force on Food
Security (2008)

23.  Punjab produces on average 16
to 17 million mt against
consumption requirements of
12.5 million mt
 NWFP largest wheat deficit and
most vulnerable
 required hi h t allocation -
i d highest ll ti
almost 2.3 million mt in 2007/08
 Changes in domestic wheat
marketing p
g policies immediately
y
affect NWFP supply situation
 Porous borders with Afghanistan
- large share of the allocated
wheat does not reach intended
Provincial consumers

25.  a recent nine pillared Poverty Reduction Strategy
 a Social Protection Strategy approved a couple of
y
years ago
g
But
 No capacity or intent to implement
and
 No effective pressure or conditionality for it to do
so

26.  Serious information asymmetries, moral hazard,
adverse selection, insufficient property rights, no
accountability or access to justice etc. all leading to
market and government failure
 Very limited opportunity, security or empowerment
 Poor and manipulated d
P d i l d data, poorer analyses and no
l d
voice or ownership of the people
 Virtually no Monitoring and Evaluation
 Serious disconnects between what is stated and
what is actually intended, between existing and
envisaged capacity and hence between what is
planned and what is eventually implemented
 No processes for informed independent policy
p p p y
debate and discussion

27. These once proud people have lost their
dignity
di it and th i ability t protect it – L t
d their bilit to t t Let
us not forsake them.

28. Thank You So Much