Presentation made by Louise Fox, Lead Economist at the World Bank, about youth employment in Sub-Saharan Africa region.

1. YOUTH EMPLOYMENT IN
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

2. Dimensions of the employment challenge
• The demographics, which created the youth bulge that is
emerging onto African labor markets but could, in the longer
term, stimulate economic growth and development.
• The structure of economies and of recent economic growth,
which failed to increase the supply of the wage jobs most
desired by the youth—and the prospects for reversing this
trend in the future.
• The massive expansion in access to education, which is
adding many years of schooling, but much less learning and
skills, to Sub-Saharan Africa.
• The aspirations of youth and policy makers, which focus on
the wage employment sector at the expense of more
immediate opportunities in the family farming and household
enterprise sectors.

3. Message of the report
Unemployment (of urban educated
graduates who want to work in the
wage sector) is just the tip of the
iceberg
Solving the youth employment problem
is about pathways for all youth into
productive work in the private sector: in
agriculture, household enterprises, as
well as modern wage enterprises
sector

4. The Opportunity and Challenge:Africa’s Youth
4
SSA Population 2015, 2035 South Asia Population 2015, 2035
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80+
Population in millions
Male 2015 Female 2015
Male 2035 Female 2035
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.
http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm

5. Overthe past two decades,agriculture’s sharein GDPcontractedin
Africa,but manufacturing did not replace it
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia South Asia
Low Income
Agriculture
Industry (exc. Manufacturing)
Manufacturing
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia South Asia
Low-Middle Income
Agriculture
Industry (exc. Manufacturing)
Manufacturing

6. The share of employment in agriculture
contracted in many fast growing economies
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Nigeria Rwanda Ghana Uganda Tanzania Senegal Cote
d'Ivoire
Percentagepointchangein
employmentshare
Agriculture Private wage Household enterprises

7. But agriculture still employs the majority of
the labor force
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low Income Lower-Middle
Income
Resource Rich Upper-Middle
Income
Total
183 m 40 m 150 m 21 m 395 m
LaborForceDistribution15-64
Agriculture HE Wage Industry Wage Services Unemployed

8. Wage employment remains low in sub-Saharan
Africa
Especially in industry and compared with Asian
countries
8
SLENER BFA
TCDCOD CIV
LBR COM
MWI
RWA
KEN
COG AGONGA
CMR
SEN
GHA
LSO
STP
SWZ
BGD
BOL
KHM
MNG
NIC
PHI
VNM
LAO
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
WageIndustryemployment,2010(percentoftotal)
GDP per capita, 2010 (current U.S. dollars)
Sub-Saharan Africa low and low-middle income Comparators
Household
enterprises Agriculture
Industry Services
Low Income Sub-Saharan Africa 2.3 10.0 18.3 69.4
Lao PDR 5.4 8.1 19.0 67.5
Bangladesh 10.8 14.9 27.7 46.6
Cambodia 11.1 12.2 21.0 55.7
Low-Middle Income Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 11.9 31.1 55.1
Vietnam 14.3 17.5 19.1 49.1
Nicaragua 13.3 30.6 22.9 33.2
Philippines 12.6 36.1 19.5 31.8
Bolivia 12.6 30.4 28.1 28.9
Mongolia 5.9 33.4 16.0 44.7
Sources: I2D2; and Sub-Saharan Africa estimation fromprojections.
Wage
Employed Population 15–64,2010

9. After a long transition to work, youth end
up in the same sectors as adults – can
they be more productive?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
Agriculture HE Wage
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
Agriculture HE Wage
Rural Urban

10. 10
Number of new jobs by sector Distribution of new entrants by sector
125 million new jobs for 170 million new entrants
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Agriculture Household
enterprise
Wage
services
Wage
industry
Millions
New Jobs 2020
37%
38%
21%
4%
Agriculture Household enterprise
Wage services Wage industry

11. Framework for analyzing the youth
employment challenge: Productivity and
Pathways
• Focus on the private sector:
• Agriculture
• Household enterprises (HEs)
• Modern wage employment (where the majority want to work)
• Two policy dimensions
• Skills
• Business Environment
• Two time dimensions
• Address immediate constraints for quick wins
• Address medium term constraints for game changers

12. Education determines opportunities…
42
32
12
6
35
22
13
20
8
18
21
27
25
14
22
16
28
43
73
24
0
20
40
60
80
100
Agriculture Household Enterprise Wage with no
contract
Wage with contract Total
Percent
No Education Primary Incomplete Primary Complete Secondary +
Education Profile of Workers in each Sector

13. But quality is key, and this is lagging, so
benefits are not realized
(Percentageof students who cannot read a single word of a simple paragraph, 2010)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ghana Kenya Liberia Mali Senegal Senegal The
Gambia
Uganda
Grade 3 End
Grade 3
End
Grade 2
End
Grade2
Grade3 End
Grade3
End
Grade2
End
Grade2

14. Building skills is a medium term
agenda, but reform has to start now
• Countries can not get a quick win through TVET–
foundation has to be better education
• Cognitive and behavioral skills for productivity
• For agriculture, build skills through extension, with
programs targeted at youth
• Build on existing private approaches (e.g.
apprenticeships) to help youth enter HE sector
productively; address multiple constraints
• For entrance into wage jobs, use post-school TVET very
selectively, use PPP

15. In agriculture, youth need land and
support to make it productive
Land ownership by age group
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60+
Percent
Age
Malawi Tanzania Uganda
Opportunities and constraints
• Growing demand for food
produced on Africa’s farms –
domestically and exports
• Youth can be early adopters
of new technology if it is
available
• Credit
• Rural infrastructure
• Land markets
• Private investment in agro-
processing
• Producer organizations

16. HEs are not SMEs – they need their own
approach, and youth need support to seize
opportunities
Most enterprises are family
operations
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Self Employed Self Employed
with Family
Helpers
With 1-4
Employees
5 + Employees
Youth struggle to start a business
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-65
66+
%
Distribution of HE owners
Share of age group being in HE owners

17. Grow HE employment for youth through
strategy to develop new businesses
• Need an inclusive strategy – at national and local level
• Urban authorities should support sector, provide locations
to work and sell
• Cluster for productivity, integrate into local development projects
• Expand infrastructure for productivity, profitability
• Voice and association – Ghana is a good example

18. Financial inclusion for family farms and
enterprises, as well as households
African youth save, but not in
banks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
LI LMI UMI LI LMI UMI
SSA Rest of the World
Individuals15-24(%)
Formal Informal/Club Other
• Households, and farm or
business finances comingled
• Households need place to
save and to get credit
• Youth need savings to start a
business or buy inputs for the
farm, and a place to
safeguard profits
• Mobile money shows
promise but need better
regulations
• Informal savings groups are
filling the gap, especially in
rural areas

19. Amanufacturing strategy won’t solve today’s youth
employment, but it will help the next generation
Manufacturing employment has
grown slowly
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1990
2007
1990
2007
1980
2003
1990
2007
1990
2007
1990
2000
1990
2007
Maufacturingemployment
('000,000workers)
―Game changer‖ scenario takes
time to have an effect
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low Income Low Income Lower-middle
income
Lower-middle
income
Original Alternative Original Alternative
248 m 248 m 52 m 52 m
Inpercentoftotal
Agriculture Household enterprises Wage services
Wage industry Unemployed

20. What is needed for the ―game changer‖
scenario?
Need to raise productivity or lower
wages or both
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1991-1993
2007-2009
1991-1993
2005-2007
1980-1982
2003
1991-1993
2000-2002
1991-1993
2007-2009
1991-1993
2000-2002
1991-1993
2005-2007
Ethiopia Kenya GhanaCameroonMalawi SenegalTanzania
UnitLaborCost
China India Brazil
• Ample supply of unskilled
labor in most countries
• Primary focus should be on
business environment
• Business environment often
protects status quo
• Well known cost issues need
to be addressed:
infrastructure costs, high land
and input costs, expensive
logistics, lack of finance, etc.
• Management and market
know-how may be a
constraint

21. What operational approaches show
promise?
• Enable the private sector, don’t duplicate it
• Use NGOs and decentralized approaches for flexibility
• Performance contracts, monitoring and evaluation
• Safety net programs are reaching poor areas, use them to
help low income youth get started
• Programs geared to young women’s needs show high
returns

22. YE is about building skills through improving the
quality of education, as well as behavioral and
business skills
YE is about agriculture – where strategies exist
but have not been implemented, and could
benefit from a youth lens
YE is about household non-farm enterprises
– where few strategies exist
YE is about creating more labor intensive
enterprises as fast as possible to absorb the
supply of new entrants with education who want
wage jobs
YE is about female empowerment and focus on
the poor
Governments need to own the ―whole‖ problem
A mix of
action -
quick wins
and laying
the
foundation
for sustained
progress

23. Thank you