Applying Foresight for Creative Urban Action

The informed city & the intelligent city –
applying foresight for creative action

27 October 2011

Joe Ravetz

Centre for Urban & Regional Ecology
University of Manchester
www.manchester.ac.uk/cure

Contents
1. What is a city ?
Actually I’m not
What is urban?
sure who is best
2. From information to suited to our kind
knowledge to of problem

intelligence
3. Application – urban
climate intelligence
4. Putting it together
5. Examples from
cities
6. Conclusions & way
forward

What is ‘urban’?

Metro-scape - peri-urban – Global network of hubs,
edge city – rural-urban region... clusters, gateways

What is ‘urban’?
Community of Continuous cycles of growth
specialised urban types & decline

What is urban? Multiple games
Wow so this is
what really goes The stakes are high –
on – gamblers are you can double your
playing cards or money, but the next
Monopoly with the minute you can lose
whole city everything - houses,
factories, offices,
whole cities … all laid
to waste

And look at those
poor people – Actually I don’t
scraping together think they’re very
their last few coins happy about that….
to hand over to the they have to go
gambler man hungry just so that
the game can go on.

What is urban? Multiple systems
To play the REAL city And for many
game ... we need a the city is a
Monopoly board with place of security
more layers... Firstly, in buildings –
the global circuit – elite they don’t move
investors fly in, place around so much
their bets, take the
rewards, and run But what really
counts is the
Then there’s what ‘moral economy’ –
cities are supposed family, community,
to do, in the circle sense of doing the
of production & right thing
consumption –
making stuff and
selling it
Lastly don’t forget that
Meanwhile the town
cities exist in a global
hall tries to to
ecology - at the
governance - fix
moment not very
things and manage
happily
health & education, but

What is urban? Multiple systems

• many systems combine into
an “urban” system.
• Each has different drivers,
actors, factors, etc. Global-local financial
system
• Each can be supportive or
destructive of other systems. Urban fixed capital
Urban production
• Many inter-connections – but – consumption & infrastructure
much division & fragmenting system
• sustainable development -
different systems working
together in synergy. Urban governance Urban social-
& services system cultural system
• E.g... social cohesion +
inward investment + strong Global-local
governance + ecological ecology system
improvement =
• Needs creative action,
shared intelligence

2. Information, knowledge,
intelligence, synergicity

From information to intelligence
experience in sustainable cities since Rio 1992

L.A. 21 ???
Intelligence Is this a real debate or just a
Urban Intelligence game which is played??
foresight??? Intelligence

POLICY & Are the policies connected to
Knowledge
STRATEGY Knowledge economic / political powers?

INDICATORS Are the indicators showing real
Information
progress – & can we define this?
Are we only measuring what is
MONITORING Data
easy to measure?

From information to intelligence
experience in sustainable cities since Rio 1992

“synergy “Intelligent “Intelligent
city” Intelligence “Intelligent adaptive
Intelligence city”
“Intelligent
Intelligence Deliberation city” system”
city”
“Complex
Knowledge “Know”
“Knowledge
Knowledge Learning adaptive
city”
system”
“Information
Information “Complex
Gathering city”
system”
“Monitored
Data “technical
Processing city”
system”

Connected thinking
So tell me … what’s this
‘Synergy-city’ thing Firstly we need to think
about? in a more connected way.
Linear thinking is ok for
problems with clear
solutions… like, how to
build a road from A to B.

So For more complex &
what’s controversial issues
wrong you need a more
with ‘relational’ kind of
that? thinking – more about
the ‘synergy’. So you
ask - why do we need
more roads - what
A >>>>>> B
kind of city do we
( LINEAR THINKING =
“THE ANSWER” ) want – how do people
think & feel?

Connected thinking
…but isn’t that really difficult –
too many things are connected to Well … either you start
other things? Where do you from a pre-made theory
start? & filter out reality to
fit… or you start from
reality, & adjust the
theory to suit.

Hmm …
so can
you use Of course… to start
this to you build the shared
design intelligence ... Then
real the whole
cities? community is the
designer & policy-
maker, creatively
turning problems to
opportunities…

Urban foresight – a way forward?

Foresight can be
seen as a cycle of
about 3 stages -

But in the urban
case, these are
often pulling in
different directions
Stakeholder
Research & capacity
& future building
studies agenda
agenda

Strategic
planning &
management
agenda


• Why is the 'urban‘ foresight / • Urban systems –
future studies different to fragmented, incoherent,
other foresights? controlled by external forces
• E.g.... energy / emissions • Urban governance – gap
studies are focused on between political & other
technical factors (based on boundaries
physics / engineering): • Urban policy – often lacking
• But - urban is not only the resources & levers of
technical systems (landuse, control:
buildings, etc), - but • Context – austerity,
relationships (work-home, unemployment, social
community / household, local exclusion & disorder, geo-
/ global, etc). political insecurity

Urban foresight with mapping of relational systems

Multiple Multiple Synergicity –
questions & interactions & emergence &
relational system relational co-evolution of
levels thinking creative action,
strategic
Discourse /
thinking, shared
“Why” intelligence
worldviews /
Emotional /
values Social
community /
“what” Factors /
themes Functional / Technical
technological
“who” Actors /
stakeholders Material /
exchange / Economic
enterprise
“where” Sectors /
places / Life-support /
policies species Ecological
relations
“which” Factors /
technology / power &
regime institutions Political
“how” ‘Vectors’ /
processes /
interactions

3. Application – urban climate
change agenda

Boundaries & horizons
Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of
displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political)

CITY
CITY-REGION
REGION

Example – urban climate policy - overview

“Eco-intelligent city”
SYNERGY
FORESIGHT
“urban climate transition” PROCESS

“urban climate policy”

Shorter term - cost / Shorter term: climate
security / disruption robustness / resilience
Longer term: - energy Technical
supply / climate Longer term: re-
impacts / market shifts Economy engineering of buildings
& infrastructure
Structural pressure:
Governance
obsolescence of urban
Structural shifts: re-
form & function
Socio-cultur thinking of urban activity,
form & function
External drivers / Key systems in urban External outputs /
pressures / inputs climate issues impacts

Example – urban climate policy – overview 2

Emer
gent
FORESIGHT
PROCESS
Environmt Environmt
Economy Economy

Governance Governance

Socio-cultur Socio-cultur

MAPPING OF Environmt
SYNERGY -
PROBLEMS Economy INTELLIGENCE
Governance

Socio-cultur

SUPPORT SYSTEMS - METHODS & TOOLS

Technical-environment mapping

Global atmosphere
with carbon storage
and climate balance
Fossil fuel
extraction industry Renewable
– national / global resources, local &
regional
Bio-mass &
bio-fuel Carbon
energy sequestration in
soil & biomass

Energy Carbon
Fossil fuel conversion & embedded
reserves power in goods &
distribution Carbon net
products trade balance
of imports /
Carbon exports
CITY emissions
responsibility
Urban
CITY-REGION via energy
buildings &
Carbon stored / demand
REGION infrastructure
embedded in
as carbon sink
waste to landfill or

Technical-environment intelligence
Looking for synergy in technical pathways, multi-function actions, shared
resources , industrial symbiosis, integrated production-consumption chains

Global atmosphere
as common asset &
insurance
Renewable
resources as
Bio-mass & multi-functional
bio-fuel landuse
energy

Zero CO2 Industrial
Fossil fuel closed loop symbiosis &
reserves as systems closed loop Carbon net
conversion design trade balance
strategy of imports /
Carbon exports
CITY emissions
Building renewal & responsibility
CITY-REGION renovation as CO2 via energy
Strategic carbon
management demand
REGION storage resource

Technical-environment information system
Mortgage holders & City / region ESCO management & Social technology
investors monitor authorities monitor investment programmes enables networks,
carbon flows & carbon flows, with real time energy / initiatives, debates,
trades on financial investment & urban carbon analysis wikipedia type info
basis management on an
area basis
MANAGEMENT & TRADING
DECISION SUPPORT

Downstream
BASELINE & BENCHMARKING

Infrastructur
Upstream
Energy / trans
Government

e
services

Finance & Social
markets enterprise
‘Carbon
Carbon intelligence
Utilities & intelligence’ Householders
infrastructure & consumers

Design & Buildings &
construction stock

Real-time metering Online library of building Buildings, stocks & Householders keep
& load management types, ages, conditions, types with online online climate activity
enables smart energy technology climate profile, profile. Climate bonus
infrastructure with opportunities georeferenced & points can be traded.
intermittent sources. searchable

Governance & political ecology mapping
‘developed’
urban
conflict
with global
commons

‘developed’
urban
conflict
with under-
developed
resource
providers

Local Local Local Urban- Urban /
conflicts in conflicts in conflicts in Local inter- inter-
resource hinterland extended conflicts urban regional
providers urban area inner conflicts conflicts
urban
areas

Governance & political ecology intelligence

From - To - “SELF-
“ORGANIZED ORGANIZING
GOVERNMENT” GOVERNANCE”
Policy: Policy: responsive
hierarchical & & inter-connected:
technocratic: multi-level & multi-
within defined functional
units & sectors
Governance
Regulation system: 1- system - co-
way information flow: production of
(with occasional shared intelligence
election feedback)

Public: pro-active,
Public: entrepreneurial,
fragmented & resilient & self-
passive recipients organized

Economy stakeholder mapping
Social / cult relationships
Institutional relationships
Impotent & short Economic relationships
Fragmented & self-
termist
interested
Inefficient &
Government bureaucratic
Public
Chasing money & Civic sector
services Fragmented &
prestige under-skilled
Design & Social &
technology community
Short termist &
profit seeking Finance
Households
sector
Materialistic &
Utilities
Inter- short termist
mediaries

Primary Construction
Privatized firms resources
maximizing share Producers
value Inefficient & backward
Old business model loooking
based on extract & Interested in profit not
dump quality

Economy stakeholder intelligence
Social / cultural relationships
Municipal green bonds provide Institutional relationships
low cost capital upfront, offset
ESCOs & Economic relationships
by surcharge on local taxes:
securitization / extended CERT
investment schemes Public procurement
for forward investment to kickstart markets
Government
Public & build critical mass
Innovative financial Civic sector
services Social agencies
mechanisms to enable manage effects on
micro-finance etc Design & Social & social housing &
technology community neighbourhood
Upstream ETS facilities
auction revenues Finance
used to capitalize Households
sector
the re-engineering Households opt-in to
programme Inter- the improvement
Utilities scheme with
mediaries
guarantees on
Primary Construction reduction of net
Utilities act as inter- resources expenditure.
mediaries & ‘deem’ the
Producers
energy savings as an Building contractors join
upfront capital sum Sustainable resource area consortiums, working
management programme Efficiency equipment to efficiency performance
for all building materials & manufacturers gain from standards
supply chains innovation programme &
economies of scale

Socio-cultural – discourse
Have you heard this
one? they’re telling us
we’ve got 100 months
to save the planet
Huh.. believe that,
you believe
anything. They’re
just trying to scare
us

Have you heard this
one? they’re telling us
we’ve got 100 months Huh.. believe that,
to save the planet you believe anything.
The scientists are
just trying to scare
us so they get more
funding

But what if the
scientists are right
and the arctic ice is So – we’ve got the
melting and the technology,... when the
deserts are advancing, price is right we’ll use
and...and.. it.

But what if the climate
crunch adds up with the
credit crunch, food
Well I’m not about
crunch, population
to change my
crunch etc... Won’t we
lifestyle – I’ve
all have to change our
worked hard for all
lifestyles?
this and I’m not going
to hand it over to
some green-bugged
hair-shirted eco-
crazy

But what if the climate
crunch adds up with the
credit crunch, food
shortages, population, Well I’m not about
terrorism etc... Won’t to change my
we all have to change lifestyle – I’ve
our lifestyles? worked hard for all
this and I’m not going
to hand it over to
some green-bugged
hair-shirted eco-
crazy

In fact have you
heard of this thing
sus… sus…
sustainability??
That’s precisely it!!
It’s a global media
conspiracy to keep people
like you & me in suspense
& paranoia


Govt will give
“We would all us £3 billion
(“Red Ken”) be better off”
Good for those
Socialism - back
“just look at without cars
door
Barcelona”
Pollution &
Bureaucracy
climate change
gone mad

Roads will be
Inconvenience better too
“Freedom of
the road”

Cost – can’t “we already
afford it pay our taxes”
Cost of running
the scheme “Public trans”
no thanks
“Public trans” “Public trans” should
(for losers) sort it out

Socio-cultural mapping
Dynamic /
action

Opportunity

Strategy
Agenda

Abstracted / “Questions”
Embedded /
formal tacit
“Answers”
Issue
System analysis

Problem

Static /
cognition

Foresight for synergicity
Processes - Results –

• Foresight futures strand – • Multi-actor, multi-lateral, multi-
aims to enhance shared level entrepreneurial action....
intelligence, shared learning e.g. local partnerships, strategic
etc ... networks
• Foresight capacity strand • Creative responses to
– aims to enhance transitions and building of
intellectual capital & resilience & adaptive capacity
synergy • Creative entrepreneurial /
• Foresight strategy strand participative mode of
– aims to apply these to governance with strategic
governance & policy (public intelligence.
/ private / civic.. )

One Planet City Pathways
(agendas for institutional economy transformation)

a) Public sector:
stewardship Governme
procurement Civic
nt
Public
pathway: for stability sector services
Public
& strategic planning: Science & procure Social
technology pathway enterprise
b) Financial sector:
stakeholder finance
Finance Innovation Household
pathway: re- sector pathway s
engaging capital
with communities, Infrastruct
Overseas Stakeholder
employees & Finance
ure

environment: Primary pathway Tertiary
(Innovation & resources services
c) Science & social Secondary
enterprise industry
technology sector:pathways not
Innovation / shown)
enterprise pathway:
opportunity seeking

One Planet City Pathways
(agendas for institutional economy transformation)

d) Business sector:
service chain Governme
nt
pathway: advance Civic Public
sector services
investment & leasing
model along the Science & Social
supply chain: technology enterprise
Fair trade
e) Civic sector: social pathway
enterprise pathway: Finance
sector Service
Household
s
mobilizing the energy chain
& commitment of pathway
citizens & Overseas Social
Infrastruct
ure
communities: enterprise
Primary pathway Tertiary
f) Development & trade resources services
sector: fair trade Secondary
industry
pathway: engaging
with overseas
development & global
strategy.

Local development intelligence
example of local food scheme at www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk

factors of success:

• Space for creative Landscape
action & debate owners &
• Public / private / managers
social collaboration Municipalities Farmers
& investment
• Multi-level self-
organizing
governance
systems NGOs & social
enterprise
• Knowledge and Education &
learning networks
health
• Innovation &
enterprise culture Local
• Policy democracy
intermediation and Local markets
enabling of inter-
mediaries
SMEs &
tourism

Local development intelligence
example of local food scheme at www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk

Climate benefits Landscape
owners &
managers
Climate adaptation Municipalities Farmers
strategies

Local renewable
energy NGOs & social
enterprise
Education &
Climate resilience
health
through social
cohesion Local
democracy
Reduction in food
Local markets
chain miles &
processing impacts
SMEs &
tourism

ICT application of synergy mapping
www.suregen.co.uk

Relational view Informational view
Strong links &
synergy New
Discourse / potential Social
within a level
worldviews / links learning
values between environ Emergence
(‘WHY’) levels ment (SLE) of
Factors / which collective
themes builds up intelligenc
Weak links e between
‘WHICH’ Specific links
levels
items on
Actors / the
networks platform
/stakeholders
(‘WHO’)

Sectors /
places
(‘WHERE’)

Factors /
technology /
regime
(‘WHAT’)

‘Vectors’ /
processes /
opportunities
(‘HOW’)

ICT – social-tech templates
(i.e. these are templates / apps which customize standard platforms for workbench
applications… )

Social-tech Social-tech Social-tech knowledge
platforms ‘templates’ community “library”
Discourse
(youtube) Media template
for urban issues
Policy themes /
Factors
options
(SLE-wiki) Policy best
practices / library
Actors –
Social forum /
(facebook) themes
Social forum /
places
Places
(PPGIS) GIS policy layers
GIS analytics /
Dynamics functions
(Ebay etc) Social valuations
/ priority choice Each type of knowledge This is like a combination template,
Social auctions / level tends to have its to be fitted to each type of
crowd investment own community… organization / role: containing links
to the specific templates. A series of
prototype mockups could be
mounted with dummy links…

Case study
a) street
home zone
Social-tech
To external
platforms users

Discourse Images /
stories / images /
(youtube) stories /
media
(external) media (newly
Factors Coordination created)
Policy & with funding /
(SLE-wiki) practice other policy
review levels Social forum
Actors – on events /
Social forum
(facebook) Social forum meetings /
on local
on options & issues project go-
needs &
priorities ahead
Places ideas Spatial
Local spatial
(PPGIS) analysis – design
opports / options &
Dynamics constraints limits
Value testing Investment Social
(Ebay etc) by virtual testing with investment -
auction / financial / sale of
priority social value certificates
choice auction

Case study b) town
centre regeneration
(with multiple forums including
investors / landlords)

To external
Social-tech users
platforms
Images /
Discourse stories / images /
(youtube) media stories /
(external) media (newly
Coordination created)
Factors Policy & with funding /
practice other policy
(SLE-wiki)
review levels
Investors
Investors forum Investors forum
forum needs
Actors – options & business case
& ideas
(MULTIPLE) priorities
Social forum
(facebook) Social forum on
on local
options & project go-
needs & ideas
priorities ahead
Places Spatial design
Local spatial
(PPGIS) analysis – options &
opports / limits
Dynamics constraints
Value testing Investment Commercial
(Ebay etc) by virtual testing with investment for
auction / financial / common
priority choice social value assets
auction

Greater Manchester
• Greater Manchester Policy • Some short term
Exchange was based on a improvements are possible,
scheme with aims: depending on resources:
• Develop a model Foresight
process, around knowledge • Policy / research theme
transfer and mutual learning analysis report, produced prior
between research & policy to workshop
• Provide a platform for research • Policy / research theme
dissemination and policy briefing produced after the
organizational change workshop
• Pave the way for specific • Development of on-line
research-policy collaborations resources, links to researchers
in the future & projects, links to teaching
• programmes etc.

Greater Manchester - themes
• Climate change / low carbon • Environment & economic
economics & markets development
• Air quality, transport, health: • Environment & regeneration
• Water quality, resources, • Environment & finance sectors
• Resource efficiency and waste • Environment & retail sectors
• Land use and land quality • Environment & public services
• Feeding the city-region • Environment & demographic &
• Constructing the city-region social change
• Mobilising the city-region • Environment & new technology
• Peak oil and the city-region • Environment & Education
• Sustainable tourism, leisure • Multi-cultural social cohesion &
• Sustainable events the environment
• Sustainable consumption &
production:

Alternative models
• Café Scientifique model: this • Institutional model : (e.g.
might enlarge and extend the Malmo): a dedicated
GMEC policy exchange main partnership organization, with
meetings so far: general funding & specific mission for
introductions / overviews & active research-policy and
agenda setting from both sides teaching-training-policy
• Foresight model: (as trialled at collaboration, on a number of
the GMEC first session): this levels, organized around the
aims at participative core theme of ‘sustainable
stakeholder-focused urban development’.
technically informed • Thematic model (e.g.
exploration of a multi-level Freiburg): focused on a
theme or policy question. (e.g. thematic cluster of research
UK foresight at the OSI). programmes & projects in
sustainable urban
development

Possible risks & barriers
PRACTICAL • STRUCTURAL
• Cost of doing anything in
finance / human resource
• Universities are not organized
to meet policy requirements,
and work on different level.
• Policy-makers go to
consultants if they need expert
& timely advice ‘to order’
• Uncertainties for all public
organizations & priority of short
term survival.

University of British Columbia
• Social Capacity building • This example also ties in a
model: (e.g. UBC, Vancouver): large scale physical
a combined programme of demonstration of a low carbon
knowledge resources / zero waste campus: organized
technical tools / learning in 2 parallel streams - campus
processes / research as a living laboratory of
programmes / stakeholder sustainability (CLL), and
capacity building programmes: university as agent of change
• based on ‘relational in the community (AOC)
knowledge’ concept (i.e. that (www.sustain.ubc.ca).
useful knowledge is a co-
production process more than
a report on a shelf or paper in
the library).

University of British Columbia
Content Channels Modes of Engagement Evaluation

Workshops

Public Events / Social Media
Greenest City 2020 Goals
Mobile
• Attend
Applications
• Join
• Subscribe • Monitoring
Tabletop • Play • Voting
Public
Games • Express • Survey
• Converse • Interviews
• Contribute
Online Fora • Create

Performance
Art

Q1. Who is invited and Q2. How do they participate? Q3. How do different media Q4. What are their policy
who participates? support their engagement? preferences?

Intelligent cities in practice

• GOALS - Shared • ENTREPRENEURIAL
intelligence – creative INTELLIGENCE: looks for
innovation networks: plus added value in social /
responsive structures & ecological / financial innovation
organizations
• PARTNERSHIP
• RESOURCES – INTELLIGENCE : look for
emerging forms of opportunities in ‘communities of
network / ‘meshwork’ interest’ - organizations &
governance & investment networks
• PROCESSES - • COGNITIVE INTELLIGENCE:
Institutions, policies, enhance functional information
programmes, to enable & & learning for shared tasks: (
promote creative ICT /social tech can help…. )
innovation.

Applications - urban intelligence
Wow - so this is
eco-intelligence in Basically it’s about
action !! .. and connections. We connect
how does it work? between different parts
of the ecological cycle.
Then we connect these
with different layers of
the economic system.

The whole city decides,
in a deliberative eco-
Ok but - who intelligence foresight
gets to decide network …. With this we
on these can begin to reduce
connections - extreme differences of
and what if wealth and poverty, with
there are a better balance of
winners or economic, social and
losers? ecological systems.

Thank you... (thinking in progress)

“Environment and
“World’s largest feasibility the City” - critical “World’s largest
study” – linking spatial, perspectives on the organization strategy” –
economy, environment, urban environment shared intelligence for the
society, governance. around the world relational economy

Applications of Wi-We approach

From action towards
shared intelligence

S.T.I. POLICY:
apply to research programmes,
research methods, knowledge
systems Strategic
FORWARD PLANNING: knowledge
apply to institution / program /
Strategic policy
project management systems

RISK MANAGEMENT: Strategic
Scanning for relevant
weak signals: apply to risk / hazard / management
exploring ambiguous vulnerability / resilience Exploring potential
information on wild wild cards: with ,
cards with shorter/ longer
‘wild situations’

longer term
change

shorter term
PAS change
FUTURE
T

"Urban Foresight as a Tool to Help Decision-making"

• 1. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui 1. Long term vs short term
identifier des enjeux de long terme
• Focus on futures / prospectives /
alors que nombreux sont ceux qui
wild cards to explore the dynamics
pensent que la difficulté de
percevoir le changement lointain of the short term.... Create multi-
s'accroît ? functional / multi-actor value chains
• 2. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui which link short to long term
construire des visions collectives 2. Collective vs anonymous?
pour un avenir commun dans des • Creative thinking emerging from
métropoles de plus en plus
fragmented communities to find
peuplées mais qui nous
paraissent pourtant de plus en
opportunities on multiple levels
plus anonymes ? 3. Grassroots vs higher levels?
• 3. Comment peut-on aujourd'hui • urban foresight for collaborative
articuler ces enjeux de long terme strategy ... which builds value
et ces visions collectives pour chains between decision-makers &
construire des stratégies crédibles others ... ‘meshworks’ from
et appropriables par les grands
networks.
décideurs ?

Actors
Whose problems / opportunities?

Governanc
Financial e & public Social
sector sector sector

Consumer
Business
s&
sector
citizens
Energy / Infra
carbon Science & structure
technology

Sectors
Which parts of the economy & society are
involved?
Financial Procurement
services (public
Farming & services)
food chain Non-profit /
social sector
Transport
Households
Manufacturin (final
g demand)
Retail &
Energy & Construction distribution
utilities &
engineering

Factors
What are the driving forces /
pressures / underlying conditions?
Internation
Fiscal
al
policy
Energy / agreement
framework
carbon s Communit
markets y & social
enterprise
Employme
nt & skills Public
attitudes
Innovation Investment
& for
technology infrastructu
deployment re

Specific issues
Strategy issues: Infrastructure issues
• Energy / carbon • Embedded energy / CHP
scenarios & modelling • Grid smartening
• Public transport
Market issues: • Electric cars
• Carbon pricing for policy
• ETS Social issues
• CRC • Public attitudes &
• Labelling / benchmark / awareness raising
footprinting • Resources & enabling
• Public procurement • Household investment &
return

Implications
Scientific knowledge Policy knowledge for
for policy: science:
• Energy / carbon • Organizational
modelling & boundary dynamics
analysis • Structures of
• Opportunity & responsibility &
scenario modelling decision making
• Upcoming technology • Investment & return
& innovation • Needs & opportunities

Issue / knowledge mapping
• This aims at a practical • What are the key
output & outcome ‘issues’ ? – (questions,
• Follows a ‘mapping’ debates, uncertainties,
approach in subgroups…. dilemmas)
(as encouraged by • What do we need to
facilitators ) know from the ‘other
• This responds to inputs: side’ ?- (i.e. policy /
10 minute briefings from research)
experts on each side. • How to take these
Each briefing should issues forward ? -
focus on 3 strands - (practical actions)

Example – climate
adaptation agenda 1

• Building up a
‘mapping’ of this
complex agenda
• Starts with the
practical - the city-
region and its
buildings (housing /
commercial)
• Thinks about climate
impacts
• Thinks about driving
forces

Example – climate
adaptation agenda 2

• Adds on specific
climate change
pressures
• Adds on ‘responses’ –
design, planning,
engineering,
infrastructure,
building usages

Example – climate
adaptation agenda 3

• Adds on external
context – economic,
social, political…
• Adds on underlying
factors – social,
cultural,
organizational, etc…

Example – climate
adaptation agenda 4

• Identify the areas
where policy has good
knowledge
• Identify the areas
where policy needs
better knowledge

Example – climate
adaptation agenda 5

• Explore issues where
research has good
knowledge
• Explore issues where
research needs better
knowledge

Example – climate
adaptation agenda 6

• Putting it together –
identify areas of
opportunity for
exchange & further
action
• Specific policy issues,
e.g.green
infrastructure,
Indicator 188 etc
• Specific research
issues, e.g. social
resilience, critical
infrastructure, stock
management etc.

Climate mitigation agenda
• Trends, targets and
• Built environment challenges: (global
issues (planning, targets & agreements,
housing, property, national / regional
construction, targets, risks, resilience,
infrastructure) innovation
• Economic and
social issues
(environment sector, • “the greatest market
carbon markets, failure in the world” ..
lifestyle & • “100 months to save the
community) planet”…
• “4 degrees by 2060 ?”

Foresight methods & Wi-We resources

Emergent
(‘antici -
pating’)
Success /
Scenario normative Road-mapping /
development: scenario: apply policy scenario:
apply wild cards wild cards as scan weak Strategic
as checks on reality & signals for
Scoping futures: planning:
reality & robustness opportunities &
generate wild continuous Wi-
robustness checks threats
cards to test We scans to
boundaries: enhance shared
confirm & validate longer intelligence
with weak signals term
Ongoing resource
change
shorter term development with
Scoping capacities: periodic Wi-We
scan weak signals to Form strategies & scans for shared
assess resources, action programs intelligence
Strengths & Explore Develop
Weaknesses potential for opportunities with weak signals
capacity with combined of Opportunities
development, Wi-We reality & Threats
with wild card testing

What is a city?
Concept map
What is an urban
system

Learning /
foresight /
synergicity

Technical CO2 Technical CO2
mapping intelligence

Economic & Economic &
value mapping value intelligence

Governance & Governance
institution intelligence

Socio-cultural Socio-cultural
mapping intelligence

Systems of data /
information / knowledge /
intelligence

Policy integration – local example
www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk

ROLE OF ECONOMIC Landscape
PLANNING …. owners &
managers
• Public / private / Municipalities Farmers
social collaboration &
investment
• Knowledge NGOs & social
networking enterprise
Education &
• Innovation & health
enterprise Local
• Enabler & facilitator: democracy
Local markets
• Steward of resources:
SMEs &
tourism

Policy integration – climate benefits
www.incredibleedibletodmorden.org.uk

Climate benefits Landscape
owners &
Climate managers
adaptation Municipalities Farmers
strategies

Local renewable
energy NGOs & social
enterprise
Education &
Climate resilience
health
through social
cohesion Local
Reduction in food democracy
chain miles & Local markets
processing
impacts SMEs &
tourism

Synergicity & relational thinking
Synergicity – capacity for emergence of creative action,
strategic thinking & shared intelligence

Co-intelligence “INTELLIGENT ADAPTIVE SYSTEM”

Co-evolution “COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM”

Co-production “COMPLEX SYSTEM”

Shorter term Robustness / resilience
pressure for shorter term Responses
Longer term Adaptive capacity & feedbacks
change for longer term
Structural Conscious & strategic
shifts innovation

External Who / what /
External
STEEP
drivers / why levels levels outputs /
pressures impacts
/ inputs (Co-dependency)
RELATIONAL SYSTEM

Cultural theory
General outline of human types in cultural theory. (‘NGO’ = ‘non governmental organization’).
Source: adapted from Douglas & Wildavsky 1986; Thomson 1994.

certainty
style & risk
averse
CONSUMERS & PUBLIC SECTOR:
FATALISTS HIERARCHISTS

individualist collectivist
approach approach

PRIVATE SECTOR: NGO SECTOR:
PIONEERS EGALITARIANS

uncertainty
style & risk

Synergicity & relational thinking
• CONCEPT: • METHOD:
• Synergicity – • Relational-Emergent
“collaborative capital” – Mapping (REM) for analysis
co-evolutionary capacity of problems, & creative
for creative action, solutions.
strategic thinking & • ‘relational’ systems – based
shared intelligence. (i.e. on inter-connections and
‘capacity to move towards inter-dependency;
synergy in working • ‘emergent’ systems – based
together & thinking on capacity for self-
together’). organization & co-evolution
• towards shared intelligence.

Greater Manchester
• Each of the major • unique opportunity for the
environmental problems is research universities to
challenging – there are many contribute to the test bed of
unresolved questions & Greater Manchester: and
controversies – scientific, likewise for the policy
social, economic and political; experience to contribute to the
• Greater Manchester has one of research capability.
the largest concentrations of • The GM Environment
environment / climate / energy Commission Policy Exchange
expertise in Europe. It is also programme is a first step
aiming to be a leader in towards a longer term model
environment / sustainability for collaborative learning and
policy. knowledge-based innovation,
between researchers &
teachers, and policymakers &
stakeholders in the city-region.

Applying Foresight for Creative Urban Action

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