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1. Prediktivt tänkande i den finansiella
världen
Robert Moberg
Predictive Analytics Solutions Architect
+46707931252
romoberg@se.ibm.com

2. Important Disclaimer
 THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL
PURPOSES ONLY.
 WHILE EFFORTS WERE MADE TO VERIFY THE COMPLETENESS AND ACCURACY OF THE
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION, IT IS PROVIDED “AS IS”, WITHOUT
WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED.
 IN ADDITION, THIS INFORMATION IS BASED ON IBM’S CURRENT
PRODUCT PLANS AND STRATEGY, WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BY
IBM WITHOUT NOTICE.
 IBM SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF
THE USE OF, OR OTHERWISE RELATED TO, THIS PRESENTATION OR ANY OTHER
DOCUMENTATION.
 NOTHING CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS INTENDED TO, OR SHALL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF:
– CREATING ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION FROM IBM (OR ITS AFFILIATES
OR ITS OR THEIR SUPPLIERS AND/OR LICENSORS); OR
– ALTERING THE TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THE APPLICABLE LICENSE AGREEMENT
GOVERNING THE USE OF IBM SOFTWARE.
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3. Låt mig inleda med några citat...
 ”I fabriken producerar vi läppstift, i butiken
säljer vi förhoppningar”
– Charles Revson
– 1906 – 1975
– Skapare Revlon
 ”Kunder vill inte köpa ett 5mm borrstål, de
vill ha ett 5mm brett hål.”
– Theodore Levitt
– 1925 – 2006
– Harvard Professor
 ”Vi säljer inte en analysplattform – vi
tillhandahåller nöjda, lojala och lukrativa
kunder”
– Robert Moberg
– 1969 –
– PASA på IBM

4. What does Smarter Planet Mean to Me?
Smarter Education? Smarter Retail?
Smarter Healthcare? Smarter Telecommunications?
Smarter Government? Smarter Banking & Insurance?

5. Smarter Planet in SPSS Client Examples
Smarter Environmental Protection Smarter Law Enforcement
Marwell Wildlife, a conservation charity, helps secure a future The City of Richmond Police Department prevents
for an endangered species crime before it happens
•Determining the main threats facing the Grevy’s zebra in the wild •Optimized deployment of police forces
•Understanding critical ecosystems interactions
•Investigating the relationship between nomadic herdsmen and •Lowered homicides by 35% year over year
Grevy’s zebra •Robberies down by 20%
•Working with communities to implement conservation measures
that address threats and protect key resources
Smarter Healthcare Smarter Insurance
Sequoia Hospital reaches record survival rates Infinity Insurance dramatically reduced the cost of
claims
•Reduced mortality rate for cardiac surgery to 1.7% in 2008 from
3.8% in 2003 •Reduced time to refer suspicious claims for
investigation from 14 days to under 24 hours
•Best record nationally for survival from valve replacement over
the past six consecutive years •Achieved an ROI of 403% (payback in 3 months)
•Reduced doctors diagnostics requests from several weeks to
near real-time speed

6. To Optimize Business Performance,
Decision Makers Must Answer Key Questions…
How are we Why are we What should
doing? on/off track? we do next?

7. IBM Cognos BI and Performance Management Capabilities Helps
Decision Makers Find the Answers
How are we Why are we What should
doing? on/off track? we do next?

8. SPSS Enables New Solution Value for IBM Cognos Customers
How are we Why are we What should
doing? on/off track? we do next?
Addition of KPPs
Addition of KPPs Broad
Broad
(Key Performance
(Key Performance distribution of Time series
distribution of Time series
Predictors)
Predictors) statistical results forecasting
statistical results forecasting
New customer
New customer Predictive analytics for
Predictive analytics for
insight through
insight through deeper understanding
deeper understanding
Data Collection
Data Collection of the data
of the data

9. Använd data till förutsägelser och goda beslut
Samla in Förutse Agera
 Använd kunskapen
 Hämta data från  Använda till att fatta
olika källor avancerad optimala beslut
analys för att få inom alla
insiker och verksamhetsområd
förutse en
kundernas
beteende
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10. Utmaningar: Maximera prestanda, sänka kostnaderna
Kors- och merfösäljning
Attrahera kunder
Resultat
CRM, kundtapp
Good will,
Lojalitetsprogram
kundåteruppväckning
Finna Vinna Behålla
Tid
HR, anställningar
Kreditvärdering
Svinn, slutförsäljningar
Finansiella prognoser
Bedrägeri Riskmanagement Risk
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11. Data is the heart of Predictive Analytics
High-value, dynamic
- source of competitive differentiation
Interaction data Attitudinal/External data
- E-Mail / chat transcripts - Opinions
- Call center notes - Preferences
- Web Click-streams - Needs & Desires
- In person dialogues - Weather Conditions
- Maintenance History -…
- Repairs performed
-… Customers
Events
Spare Parts
…
Descriptive data Behavioral data
- Attributes - Orders
- Characteristics - Transactions
- Self-declared info - Payment history
- (Geo)demographics - Usage history
-… - Machine readings
- Alarms
-- …
“Traditional”

12. Ett ramverk för detaljhandelns tre stora affärsmål
Breakaway
Verksamhets- Business process
integration (e.g., CRM) Advanced Analytics --
mognad and collaboration Prescriptive, real-time,
pattern-based strategies
Hur verksamheten Process Differentiating
använder information automation
and workflow
för att uppnå sina mål
genom pollicies, Competitive
affärsprocesser och Predictions,
organisation Task integration contextual business
(e.g., ERP) rules and patterns
Foundational Master data
management,
Command dashboards and
and control Data warehouses, scorecards
Adhoc governance and
Spreadsheets production reporting
Source: Breaking Away with and extracts
Business Analytics and Optimization:
New intelligence meets enterprise
operations available in late 2009 at
www.ibm.com/gbs/intelligent-
enterprise. Informations- och Analysmognad
Hur verksamheten hanterar information och lär sig av den

13. De tre stora affärsmålen
Utveckla smartare
handel och
Leverera en försörjningskedjor
smartare
shoppingupplevelse
Bygg smartare
detaljhandelsverksamhet
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14. Utveckla smartare handel och
försörjningskedjor
Vendor management: Supply Chain Product Information
Trusted single source of Optimization: Management:
information enabling Innovative approach to Aggregates product data
partner collaboration and continually optimize to eliminate duplication
information exchange sourcing and distribution and improve efficiency
resulting in speed, lower as new categories and and accuracy resulting in
cost, efficiencies and products are introduced. speed to market of new
increased transparency products.
and accountability.

15. Leverage POS Data to Understand Purchase Patterns,
Create Targeted Promotions, and Plan Inventories
 Retail Objective: To identify and
predict which SKUs are and will
be purchased together for
purposes of cross-sells, up-sells,
and “substitution purchases”
 Analytics Methodology: Market
Basket Analysis, typically via
association modeling such as
Apriori
 Overview of Approach: Apriori
extracts a set of rules from the
data – “If X was purchased then Y
was purchased” – pulling out the
rules with the highest information
content
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16. De tre stora affärsmålen
Utveckla smartare
handel och
försörjningskedjor
Bygg smartare
detaljhandelsverksamhet
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17. Bygg smartare detaljhandelsverksamhet
Retail Performance & Content Management & Retail Data Growth &
Financial Analytics: Process Optimization: Risk Management:
Providing multidimensional Manage unstructured data Reduce costs, improve
analysis around key and automate retail performance and mitigate
performance metrics and processes to attain risks and address
advanced predictive analytics, visibility, reduced costs compliance issues
transforming into a responsive and cycle time resulting in associated with data growth
retail organization that can optimized, agile processes. and use in retail.
take action quickly.

18. Removing Seasonal Variations is Often a Necessary First
Step in Analyzing Retail Data
 Retail Objective: To remove
periodic fluctuations, such as
seasonal highs or lows, to
better identify true trends in
sales and inventory
 Analytics Methodology:
Seasonal Decomposition
 Overview of Approach:
Decompose a series into a
seasonal component, a
combined trend and cycle
component, and an "error"
component
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19. De tre stora affärsmålen
Utveckla smartare
handel och
Leverera en försörjningskedjor
smartare
shoppingupplevelse
Bygg smartare
detaljhandelsverksamhet
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20. Leverera en smartare shoppingupplevelse
Single View of Customer: Marketing Effectiveness: Customer Insight:
Aggregates customer data Providing valuable and Provide a holistic view of
from across the retail predictive insights into how customer and segment
system to create a unified, effective marketing programs behavior, preferences
360-degree view are and uncovering and loyalty while enabling
of behavior across all consumer sentiment on the real-time integration of
channels. products, brands, market customer predictive insights
trends and competitors. into core business processes
and decisions.

21. Basic Segmentation and Statistical Analysis Form the
Basis for Measuring Direct Marketing Effectiveness
 Retail Objective: To predict the
response rates of direct
marketing promotions based on
customer attributes, including
where they live and previous
response
 Analytics Methodology: Two-
step cluster analysis; control
package testing
 Overview of Approach:
Categorize customers into
clusters; perform A vs. B testing
to validate statistical differences;
segment customers by postal
code
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22. Unstructured Customer Feedback Can be Bucketed to
Show Trends and Used to Refine Predictive Models
 Retail Objective: Capture
customer feedback and use it to
explain purchase patterns and
outcomes
 Analytics Methodology: Text
“I like the new packaging…” analytics with text link analysis,
CHAID-based classification data
“… but the new price is still too high.”
mining
 Overview of Approach: Convert
Positive: Product Negative: Pricing unstructured data to structured,
capture sentiment and identify
patters, and use it to refine data
mining efforts
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23. Promotional Display
Buy X get Z for only
$1.49! Market basket insights Transactions
• If A then B from all
• If C then D customers
• If E and F then G
• If H, then H then I
Special Offer – This Week Only
10% off on any of these
combinations: A + B…G + H….
Offers
Transactions from this
 % $ 1 Gillette razors customer
Statement • Cardholder since YYYYMM
insert  % $ 2 L’Oreal shampoo • Average transaction value
• Monthly transaction value
3 13  % $ 3 House brand shampoo
• Categories purchased
 % $ 4 House brand hair color • Brands purchased
6 12
45 6  % $ 5 Colgate toothpaste Descriptive
6 6 36 • Age
 % $ 6 Nivea skin care • Gender
 % $ 7 Men’s fragrance • Family situation
• Zip code
 8 Woman’s fragrance
 % $ House brand sun care Interactions
9
• Web registration
 10 Optician • Web visits
• Customer service contacts
 11 Feminine hygiene • Channel preference
 % $ 12 Online photo service
 % $ 13 Family planning Attitudes
• Satisfaction scores
 14 Pampers diapers • Shopper type
• Eco score
 15 House brand diapers

24. Promotional Display
Buy X get Z for only
$1.49! Market basket insights Transactions
• If A then B from all
• If C then D customers
• If E and F then G
• If H, then H then I
Special Offer – This Week Only
10% off on any of these
combinations: A + B…G + H….
Offers
Transactions from this
1 Gillette razors customer
Statement • Cardholder since YYYYMM
insert 2 L’Oreal shampoo • Average transaction value
• Monthly transaction value
3 13 3 House brand shampoo
• Categories purchased
4 House brand hair color • Brands purchased
6 12
45 6 5 Colgate toothpaste Descriptive
6 6 36 • Age
6 Nivea skin care • Gender
7 Men’s fragrance • Family situation
• Zip code
Statement 8 Woman’s fragrance
insert House brand sun care Interactions
9
• Web registration
? ? 10 Optician • Web visits
• Customer service contacts
? ? 11 Feminine hygiene • Channel preference
12 Online photo service
773 13 Family planning Attitudes
924 • Satisfaction scores
5
14 Pampers diapers • Shopper type
• Eco score
15 House brand diapers

25. Promotional Display
Buy X get Z for only
$1.49! Market basket insights Transactions
• If A then B from all
• If C then D customers
• If E and F then G
• If H, then H then I
Special Offer – This Week Only
10% off on any of these
combinations: A + B…G + H….
Offers
Transactions from this
 % $ 1 Gillette razors customer
Statement • Cardholder since YYYYMM
insert  % $ 2 L’Oreal shampoo • Average transaction value
• Monthly transaction value
3 13  % $ 3 House brand shampoo
• Categories purchased
 % $ 4 House brand hair color • Brands purchased
6 12
45 6  % $ 5 Colgate toothpaste Descriptive
6 6 36 • Age
 % $ 6 Nivea skin care • Gender
 % $ 7 Men’s fragrance • Family situation
• Zip code
Statement  % $ 8 Woman’s fragrance
insert  % $ House brand sun care Interactions
9
• Web registration
?
12 ?
15  % $ 10 Optician • Web visits
• Customer service contacts
 % $ 11 Feminine hygiene
?
11 ?
3 • Channel preference
 % $ 12 Online photo service
773  % $ 13 Family planning Attitudes
924 • Satisfaction scores
5
 % $ 14 Pampers diapers • Shopper type
• Eco score
 % $ 15 House brand diapers

26. Promotional Display
Buy X get Z for only
$1.49! Market basket insights Transactions
• If A then B from all
• If C then D customers
• If E and F then G
• If H, then H then I
Special Offer – This Week Only
10% off on any of these
combinations: A + B…G + H….
Offers
Transactions from this
 % $ 1 Gillette razors customer
Statement • Cardholder since YYYYMM
insert  % $ 2 L’Oreal shampoo • Average transaction value
• Monthly transaction value
3 13  % $ 3 House brand shampoo
• Categories purchased
 % $ 4 House brand hair color • Brands purchased
6 12
45 6  % $ 5 Colgate toothpaste Descriptive
6 6 36 • Age
 % $ 6 Nivea skin care • Gender
 % $ 7 Men’s fragrance • Family situation
• Zip code
Statement  % $ 8 Woman’s fragrance
insert  % $ House brand sun care Interactions
9
• Web registration
?
12 ?
15  % $ 10 Optician • Web visits
• Customer service contacts
 % $ 11 Feminine hygiene
?
11 ?
3 • Channel preference
 % $
@ 12 Online photo service
773  % $ 13 Family planning Attitudes
924 • Satisfaction scores
5
 % $ 14 Pampers diapers • Shopper type
• Eco score
 % $ 15 House brand diapers

27. Delivering Customer Value
Center for Disease Control Cablecom GmbH
Improve Health Care and Reducing Customer Churn
Patient Outcomes
• Quickly capture and filter in real-time vast amounts of data • Identify early indicators of customer churn using data
on critical public health issues found through interviews, collection surveys and data and text mining, tailoring direct
email and the Internet marketing efforts as a result
• Better characterize diseases, identify risk factors and • 100% improvement in churn detection and an initial
quickly assess medical needs of specific populations reduction in actual churn from 19% to 2%
• Plot the expected course of outbreaks and plan responses • 53% of its unsatisfied customers became company
for improved public safety promoters
Richmond Police Department Infinity Property and Casualty
Predict and Prevent Criminal Activity Corporation
Reducing Fraud
• Identify and predict crime patterns through timely analysis • Real-time claims scoring to determine
whether claims are legitimate
of incident reports, tips and service calls
• 20-30 % decrease in violent crime and homicides in a 12- • Cut referral time from 14 days to less
month period than 24 hours on Special Investigation
claims
• Pinpoint “hot spots” and place tactical units where they are • Identified and addressed subrogation
needed most claims at twice the speed – from 26 to 10
days

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30. © Copyright IBM Corporation 2008 All rights reserved. The information contained in these
materials is provided for informational purposes only, and is provided AS IS without warranty
of any kind, express or implied. IBM shall not be responsible for any damages arising out of
the use of, or otherwise related to, these materials. Nothing contained in these materials is
intended to, nor shall have the effect of, creating any warranties or representations from IBM
or its suppliers or licensors, or altering the terms and conditions of the applicable license
agreement governing the use of IBM software. References in these materials to IBM
products, programs, or services do not imply that they will be available in all countries in
which IBM operates. Product release dates and/or capabilities referenced in these materials
may change at any time at IBM’s sole discretion based on market opportunities or other
factors, and are not intended to be a commitment to future product or feature availability in
any way. IBM, the IBM logo, Cognos, the Cognos logo, and other IBM products and
services are trademarks of the International Business Machines Corporation, in the United
States, other countries or both. Other company, product, or service names may be
trademarks or service marks of others.
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