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The PFP Group Wealth Management Team Market Volatility Fight or Flight?
No one likes uncertainty Everyone predicted the right outcome – in hindsight
Presentation Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is volatility? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Assume both Asset A &B have expected return of 15%,; S.D. of A is 5%, S.D. of B is 10%
TSX Composite vs. market volatility – last 5 years TSX: -5%; Volatility: +200% Annual dividend: approx 2%
TSX Composite vs. market volatility – last 10 years TSX: +50%; Volatility: +50% Annual dividend: approx 2%
TSX Composite vs. market volatility – last 20 years TSX: +250%; Volatility: +50% Annual dividend: approx 2%
 
 
What does that mean? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s wrong with volatility? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Historical perspective ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Index Value: 11,231.94          25.61   (0.23% Search
The next few years? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What are we doing? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What are we doing? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dividends vs. S&P/TSX Composite Index Dividend paying stocks outperform the market   Canadian Annualized Portfolio Performance by Dividend Attribute
Dividends vs. S&P 500 Composite Index Dividend paying stocks outperform the market   U.S. Annualized Portfolio Performance by Dividend Attribute
Dividends vs. S&P/TSX Composite Index An important part of total market returns Dividends have comprised between 25% and 45% of total returns over the last 20 years. Source: RBC GAM, data as of Dec. 31, 2010. An investment cannot be made directly into an index.  Chart and table do not reflect  transaction costs, investment management fees or taxes which would lower returns. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 75% 64% 55% Capital Gains 25% 36% 45% Dividend Returns 20 Year 10 Year  5 Year Returns as a percent of total  
What are we doing? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why High Yield/Corporate bonds? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why Invest In High Yield/Corporate Bonds? FIVE BEST/WORST YEARS: HIGH YIELD &  INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS  (1987 – 2010) 5 Worst Years 5 Best Years
WHY INVEST IN CORPORATE BONDS   ATTRACTIVE RISK/RETURN PROFILE 5-YEAR RETURN ANALYSIS: CORPORATE BONDS AND OTHER MAJOR ASSET CLASSES *BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index.  **BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Index. As of October 31, 2011 ANNUAL RETURN STANDARD DEVIATION SHARPE RATIO High Yield Bonds* 7.9% 14.1% 0.50 US Corporate Bonds** 6.7% 7.3% 0.72 BMO Small Cap Blended 3.8% 23.0% 0.20 S&P/TSX Composite 2.7% 17.2% 0.13 Russell 2000 0.7% 24.5% 0.09 S&P 500 0.25% 18.9% 0.03 MSCI World -0.5% 20.5% 0.01
Higher yields offer downside protection when  rates are rising  -  Period 1994 – June 2011
Why Fixed Income ETF’s and Funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investor Emotions “ Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”  -Warren Buffet “ A bear market is a temporary interruption of a permanent uptrend -Nick Murray “ You’ve got to be careful if you don’t know where you are going because you might not get there” -Yogi Berra
The Cycle of Market Emotions Point of maximum financial opportunity Optimism Excitement Thrill Euphoria Anxiety Denial Fear Desperation Panic Capitulation Despondency Depression Hope Relief Optimism Point of maximum financial risk “ Wow, I feel  great about this  investment.” “ Maybe the markets  just aren’t for me.” “ Temporary setback.  I’m a long-term investor.”
Patience will be rewarded By staying invested you will not miss the best days   Source: RBC Global Asset Management Inc. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Graph does not reflect transaction costs, investment management fees or  taxes. If such costs and fees were reflected, returns would be lower. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Performance data as of December 31, 2010.
The need for a well defined plan
WEALTH MANAGEMENT :   Our Holistic Approach Philanthropy (Charitable Giving) Trust Solutions Holding Company Services Cash Flow Analysis & Management   Retirement Planning Transfer of Wealth: (Corporate & Personal) Insurance Analysis Estate Planning Tax Planning Investment Management Clasdfkhsdfientdafaf Client The PFP   Group
Wealth Management Plan:  Tools to reduce/manage Risk & Volatility ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Wealth Management Tools: Creating a Road Map ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Wealth Management Tools: Creating a Road Map ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Wealth Management Tools: Creating a Road Map ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The outcome of a well defined plan.

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Market Volatility - Fight or Flight

  • 1. The PFP Group Wealth Management Team Market Volatility Fight or Flight?
  • 2. No one likes uncertainty Everyone predicted the right outcome – in hindsight
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. TSX Composite vs. market volatility – last 5 years TSX: -5%; Volatility: +200% Annual dividend: approx 2%
  • 6. TSX Composite vs. market volatility – last 10 years TSX: +50%; Volatility: +50% Annual dividend: approx 2%
  • 7. TSX Composite vs. market volatility – last 20 years TSX: +250%; Volatility: +50% Annual dividend: approx 2%
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Index Value: 11,231.94         25.61 (0.23% Search
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Dividends vs. S&P/TSX Composite Index Dividend paying stocks outperform the market Canadian Annualized Portfolio Performance by Dividend Attribute
  • 19. Dividends vs. S&P 500 Composite Index Dividend paying stocks outperform the market U.S. Annualized Portfolio Performance by Dividend Attribute
  • 20. Dividends vs. S&P/TSX Composite Index An important part of total market returns Dividends have comprised between 25% and 45% of total returns over the last 20 years. Source: RBC GAM, data as of Dec. 31, 2010. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Chart and table do not reflect transaction costs, investment management fees or taxes which would lower returns. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 75% 64% 55% Capital Gains 25% 36% 45% Dividend Returns 20 Year 10 Year 5 Year Returns as a percent of total  
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  • 23. Why Invest In High Yield/Corporate Bonds? FIVE BEST/WORST YEARS: HIGH YIELD & INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS (1987 – 2010) 5 Worst Years 5 Best Years
  • 24. WHY INVEST IN CORPORATE BONDS ATTRACTIVE RISK/RETURN PROFILE 5-YEAR RETURN ANALYSIS: CORPORATE BONDS AND OTHER MAJOR ASSET CLASSES *BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Index. **BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Index. As of October 31, 2011 ANNUAL RETURN STANDARD DEVIATION SHARPE RATIO High Yield Bonds* 7.9% 14.1% 0.50 US Corporate Bonds** 6.7% 7.3% 0.72 BMO Small Cap Blended 3.8% 23.0% 0.20 S&P/TSX Composite 2.7% 17.2% 0.13 Russell 2000 0.7% 24.5% 0.09 S&P 500 0.25% 18.9% 0.03 MSCI World -0.5% 20.5% 0.01
  • 25. Higher yields offer downside protection when rates are rising - Period 1994 – June 2011
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  • 28. Investor Emotions “ Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” -Warren Buffet “ A bear market is a temporary interruption of a permanent uptrend -Nick Murray “ You’ve got to be careful if you don’t know where you are going because you might not get there” -Yogi Berra
  • 29. The Cycle of Market Emotions Point of maximum financial opportunity Optimism Excitement Thrill Euphoria Anxiety Denial Fear Desperation Panic Capitulation Despondency Depression Hope Relief Optimism Point of maximum financial risk “ Wow, I feel great about this investment.” “ Maybe the markets just aren’t for me.” “ Temporary setback. I’m a long-term investor.”
  • 30. Patience will be rewarded By staying invested you will not miss the best days Source: RBC Global Asset Management Inc. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Graph does not reflect transaction costs, investment management fees or taxes. If such costs and fees were reflected, returns would be lower. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Performance data as of December 31, 2010.
  • 31. The need for a well defined plan
  • 32. WEALTH MANAGEMENT : Our Holistic Approach Philanthropy (Charitable Giving) Trust Solutions Holding Company Services Cash Flow Analysis & Management Retirement Planning Transfer of Wealth: (Corporate & Personal) Insurance Analysis Estate Planning Tax Planning Investment Management Clasdfkhsdfientdafaf Client The PFP Group
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  • 37. The outcome of a well defined plan.